Six years away.

What happens in the college world between now and then?

My Guesses

The Power 5.
Greater revenue in store for the Power 5. Smart TV's, smart boxes, the increase in app delivery means better demographic information than ever and finally targeted ad delivery (ie. the folks on the other side of the tracks on the nice side of town watch the same game but get different ads) means better ad revenue. Those smart TV's, smart boxes and apps also provide an avenue to reach cord cutters and cord nevers who will pay a subscription fee of 7.5X to 10X for the content they want vs. what is being charged to the cable and satellite for lower tier content. A year of SEC Net at current rates will run you between $110 and $150 a year and ESPN owning SEC Net they might bump that number much higher and throw in the ESPN and ESPN2 SEC games as part of the subscription. Providers like ESPN will sell the same piece of content multiple times. Georgia Tech at Georgia may go out over ESPN, be sold online via an SEC subscription and an ACC subscription.

Membership at least through this period will be more stable than we have grown used to.

Sports bubble, sports schmubble, the truly big money is yet to come.

The Group of 5.
While losing financial pace with the P5, the G5 will also see a dramatic increase in revenue and exposure. They will fill more time on basic cable, regional cable, local TV, and benefit from the same technologies that will spur even greater wealth for the P5.

Talk of TV markets will still be around but it will no longer center on Nielsen TV markets, the market will be how many people will pay to watch, how many will tune in to the basic cable national telecasts, and the regional telecasts.

Membership with the likely exception of the MWC, will almost certainly go into major turmoil. Schools valued solely for being in a large TV market will see their worth plummet unless they are delivering viewers or advancing the success of the league on the field or the court. There is within each of the AAC, CUSA, MAC, and Sun Belt wide disparity in committment to athletics demonstrated in facilities, salaries, success, and capacity to sell tickets.

Schools advancing their league in the hunt for the access bowl slot, national rankings and even the NCAA Tournament will grow weary of institutions that undermine that chase with poor results and no cogent plan to change that situation.

Most likely two of the G5 conference names will go to the dustbin of history as these schools realign radically to best position for the new income stream and to best align successful teams to challenge consistently for the access slot, Top 25 football rankings, and NCAA tournament berths.

The Rest of Division I
The remaining 200+ schools will see dramatic change as well. The cost of doing business will rise rapidly and only a select few leagues will be strong enough to keep close to the pace of revenue growth of the G5 (just forget the P5). Outside of a few strong leagues, the remainder will have to choose between becoming the permanent Washington Generals and opting for Division II or III. I think by January 2020, the first 10 to 15 or so have opted out, starting a trend that won't stabilize for a number of years until it has settled in around 280 to 300 left in Division I.

Keep in mind one reason netflix keeps growing in popularity is because people hate commercials. I aint paying that kind of money for a subscription AND sitting through commercials. Games already drag out too long. Do you know when I usually turn off a game and go do something else? When they show 1 too many commercials! Get rid of commercials and you can watch a game in 2 hours.

Seriously I think there will be 2 broadcasts. Live that you pay for with no commercials and a delayed broadcast thats free but has commercials.

P5 conferences secure rights to legally provide co-ed harems to their "student-athletes", since they don't have time to get their own polygamous herds for themselves.

(01-14-2014 05:58 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Six years away.

What happens in the college world between now and then?

Student loan bubble bursts; massive defaults; economic chaos in higher education; dollar devaluation; inflation or worse stagflation; many universities close as potential students either can't funding or come to the realization that unless your going into one of about six specialized fields college is a waste of money, and in order to survive many other universities shutter their athletic programs.

(01-14-2014 09:10 PM)goofus Wrote:  Keep in mind one reason netflix keeps growing in popularity is because people hate commercials. I aint paying that kind of money for a subscription AND sitting through commercials. Games already drag out too long. Do you know when I usually turn off a game and go do something else? When they show 1 too many commercials! Get rid of commercials and you can watch a game in 2 hours.

I don't really mind them in games. You can get up and get a drink. Its when you watch a movie on something like TNT and they turn a 2 hour movie into a 4 hour marathon. Some of the stations turn 30 minute re-run sitcoms into 35 minute (and they probably cut 2 or 3 minutes from the original show).

(01-14-2014 09:10 PM)goofus Wrote:  Keep in mind one reason netflix keeps growing in popularity is because people hate commercials. I aint paying that kind of money for a subscription AND sitting through commercials. Games already drag out too long. Do you know when I usually turn off a game and go do something else? When they show 1 too many commercials! Get rid of commercials and you can watch a game in 2 hours.

You need to watch soccer.

Commercial breaks are getting excessive on some football broadcasts. No clue about basketball or hockey commercials :)

(01-14-2014 10:38 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(01-14-2014 09:10 PM)goofus Wrote:  Keep in mind one reason netflix keeps growing in popularity is because people hate commercials. I aint paying that kind of money for a subscription AND sitting through commercials. Games already drag out too long. Do you know when I usually turn off a game and go do something else? When they show 1 too many commercials! Get rid of commercials and you can watch a game in 2 hours.

I don't really mind them in games. You can get up and get a drink. Its when you watch a movie on something like TNT and they turn a 2 hour movie into a 4 hour marathon. Some of the stations turn 30 minute re-run sitcoms into 35 minute (and they probably cut 2 or 3 minutes from the original show).

You get spoiled watching NFL Red Zone on Sundays because it has no commercials. Watching a playoff game last weekend, I was thinking that the commercial breaks were too long and too often.

FLYING CARS?

I want Flying Cars!

(01-14-2014 11:11 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(01-14-2014 10:38 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(01-14-2014 09:10 PM)goofus Wrote:  Keep in mind one reason netflix keeps growing in popularity is because people hate commercials. I aint paying that kind of money for a subscription AND sitting through commercials. Games already drag out too long. Do you know when I usually turn off a game and go do something else? When they show 1 too many commercials! Get rid of commercials and you can watch a game in 2 hours.

I don't really mind them in games. You can get up and get a drink. Its when you watch a movie on something like TNT and they turn a 2 hour movie into a 4 hour marathon. Some of the stations turn 30 minute re-run sitcoms into 35 minute (and they probably cut 2 or 3 minutes from the original show).

You get spoiled watching NFL Red Zone on Sundays because it has no commercials. Watching a playoff game last weekend, I was thinking that the commercial breaks were too long and too often.

In this 24/7 world, I find it hard to block large amounts of time without getting pulled into something else. So halftimes, I rake the yard, quarters I do something else....

Its the TV timeouts when you are actually attending the game that get long. Or the extended time on instant replay.

(01-15-2014 12:40 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  FLYING CARS?

I want Flying Cars!

Maybe we can send replay officials back in time so we don't have to wait for their decisions.

(01-14-2014 05:58 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Six years away.

What happens in the college world between now and then?

My Guesses

The Power 5.
Greater revenue in store for the Power 5. Smart TV's, smart boxes, the increase in app delivery means better demographic information than ever and finally targeted ad delivery (ie. the folks on the other side of the tracks on the nice side of town watch the same game but get different ads) means better ad revenue. Those smart TV's, smart boxes and apps also provide an avenue to reach cord cutters and cord nevers who will pay a subscription fee of 7.5X to 10X for the content they want vs. what is being charged to the cable and satellite for lower tier content. A year of SEC Net at current rates will run you between $110 and $150 a year and ESPN owning SEC Net they might bump that number much higher and throw in the ESPN and ESPN2 SEC games as part of the subscription. Providers like ESPN will sell the same piece of content multiple times. Georgia Tech at Georgia may go out over ESPN, be sold online via an SEC subscription and an ACC subscription.

Membership at least through this period will be more stable than we have grown used to.

Sports bubble, sports schmubble, the truly big money is yet to come.

The Group of 5.
While losing financial pace with the P5, the G5 will also see a dramatic increase in revenue and exposure. They will fill more time on basic cable, regional cable, local TV, and benefit from the same technologies that will spur even greater wealth for the P5.

Talk of TV markets will still be around but it will no longer center on Nielsen TV markets, the market will be how many people will pay to watch, how many will tune in to the basic cable national telecasts, and the regional telecasts.

Membership with the likely exception of the MWC, will almost certainly go into major turmoil. Schools valued solely for being in a large TV market will see their worth plummet unless they are delivering viewers or advancing the success of the league on the field or the court. There is within each of the AAC, CUSA, MAC, and Sun Belt wide disparity in committment to athletics demonstrated in facilities, salaries, success, and capacity to sell tickets.

Schools advancing their league in the hunt for the access bowl slot, national rankings and even the NCAA Tournament will grow weary of institutions that undermine that chase with poor results and no cogent plan to change that situation.

Most likely two of the G5 conference names will go to the dustbin of history as these schools realign radically to best position for the new income stream and to best align successful teams to challenge consistently for the access slot, Top 25 football rankings, and NCAA tournament berths.

The Rest of Division I
The remaining 200+ schools will see dramatic change as well. The cost of doing business will rise rapidly and only a select few leagues will be strong enough to keep close to the pace of revenue growth of the G5 (just forget the P5). Outside of a few strong leagues, the remainder will have to choose between becoming the permanent Washington Generals and opting for Division II or III. I think by January 2020, the first 10 to 15 or so have opted out, starting a trend that won't stabilize for a number of years until it has settled in around 280 to 300 left in Division I.

I have few guesses. I think things will be very unpredictable. I've long thought a bunch of the MAC schools would drop football and that I-AA scholarship would start to disappear. Instead the MAC is still around, even Eastern Michigan, and I-AA has been growing.

I do think the financial pressures will finally force I-AA to reduce scholarships. And some of the Division I schools, especially small privates, will move to Division II or III. G5 and the rest of Division I will continue to realign in response to the latest set of conference expansions, but the P5 will be in a relatively stable state, much like 1966 after Georgia Tech left the SEC until 1989 when Penn St. joined the Big 10 and started the latest round (2010 is really a continuation with schools like Colorado and A&M going where they really wanted to go in the 90s).

I also agree forced carriage which is driving the conference networks will be seriously frayed with alternative delivery methods. But it won't quite be broken yet. When it breaks is when major realignment occurs again.

(First off, I am way past college age, so don't read wishful thinking into this...)

College Football attendance in 2020 will be helped dramatically by the adjustment of a current law... drinking age. Society's recognition of newfangled ways of looking at things, also called statistics, will show that lowering the drinking age to 18 is safer that prohibiting to 21 because young adults will greatly reduce binge drinking due to legal availability. As with weed, it is also impossible to enforce underage drinking violations unless another violation is being committed (noise, assault, etc.). Universities will act up their current data showing that a main reason college kids are not coming to games is they would rather throw a party where they can drink than go through a 3-4 hour dry event. All public school football, basketball, and baseball games will sell beer, be equip with excellent wifi or the 2020 equivalent, and have a suite level setup on all levels where patrons can escape the weather, hang out at a stadium bar, get a chair massage, etc. The only tickets that are still in high demand for run of the mill games are in the suites. The suits will take notice soon enough for the reasons why.

(01-15-2014 10:41 AM)bigblueblindness Wrote:  Universities will act up their current data showing that a main reason college kids are not coming to games is they would rather throw a party where they can drink than go through a 3-4 hour dry event. All public school football, basketball, and baseball games will sell beer, be equip with excellent wifi or the 2020 equivalent, and have a suite level setup on all levels where patrons can escape the weather, hang out at a stadium bar, get a chair massage, etc.

Wifi is coming to stadiums, for sure. Suites and elite-level seating, we'll see a lot more of that as well. It's more lucrative to reduce overall stadium capacity and sell a higher-end experience, whether we like it or not.

18-year-old drinking age... I would be very surprised if that happens.

And that still might not make the stadium more attractive to college kids. The schools are not going to stop searching (or banning) backpacks, they're going to keep cracking down on people bringing their own booze into the stadium, and so IMO college students will still choose to hang out where they can watch on a giant TV and pay less for a six-pack and a big bag of chips than they would for a single beer at the stadium.

Even if the wifi at the stadium is faster than the wifi at their dorm, that's only a marginal inducement. If the teams were asking me, I'd suggest they also offer free food at the stadium to students, if they want students to attend in 1980s numbers.