In recent postings (here's one example of a blog I follow: http://conferenceexpansion.com/) there seem to be three possible expansion scenarios that have some possibility of unfolding this off-season (let's say by June 30). Which are most likely and why, in your opinion?

1. Big 12 expanding to a minimum of 12. (The blog I mentioned above is really pressing for UCF to be one of those adds.)
2. The Sun Belt adding a 12th member: You can see a huge discussion on who the candidates are, on the SB board on CSNBBS
3. The MAC either reducing it's footprint to 12 teams, or adding a 14th team. (Centers on the UMass issue.)

IMO, the only potential for immediate action is the Sun Belt, and I won't speculate on the who. There is enough of that going on. I don't see any imperative for the MAC to move (although I'd love to hear from MAC fans on this subject) and I clearly think the Big12 is quite content with their round robin format, unless something drastic happens at the convention this week. I don't see any action with AAC, C-USA, MWC or the other four P5 conferences, in the short term.

Thoughts? (Let's try to keep this thread to "immediate action" (next five months.))

Part of the push to more expansion will be what comes out of the ncaa meetings later this week and final decisions likely in the spring. Also, to some degree, what happens with the ACC idea of changing the way FB championship games are staged. Something coming out of these issues could push the Big 12 to go to 12 or beyond. Less likely but still possible that other conferences could see more money involved in semi-finals for FB. An interesting few months coming up.

I wish the MAC would make a move soon. I appreciate the potential of UMASS, but for football only bothers me. I understand the "business" side of the football only from UMASS perspective , but wish they would commit all sports or move on. The unbalanced divisions is preventing Miami from playing Bowling Green next year. The unbalanced division setup needs fixed.

Some thoughts on what is known plus some speculation.

-The MAC has opened its negotiations with ESPN, they are in one of the look-in exclusive negotiation periods. If the MAC chooses to re-up that means ESPN is willing to put more dollars on the table now and extend the current contract. Rumor mill says ESPN and MAC will more likely than not sign a new deal for more money for a longer term extending through at least the 2019 season probably 2021. Speculation is that if that appears to be the case, UMass will be shown the numbers and given an ultimatium to join or they will be out following the 2015 season. If UMass accepts they will add one and odds are if the MAC feels they have the leverage to pursue that path, the MAC TV numbers will be good enough that UMass has to give it strong consideration.

- Sun Belt by all accounts the league is vapor-locked between those willing to add any warm body and those willing to wait JMU or Missouri State as well as those not willing to concede the NMSU issue just yet.

- C-USA unless Bankowsky is keeping it out of the rumor mill, the league doesn't plan to open its TV talks on a serious basis until probably around this time next year. The conference probably does nothing until they have some idea where things are headed.

- AAC their deal runs to 2020, unlikely they take any action unless it is a reaction.

- Big XII had no incentive to act with a long-term TV deal. The numbers being thrown around for the SEC Network may change that thinking. A championship game would be the fastest way to generate more cash.

-ACC and Pac-12 neither seems to have any incentive to do anything right now. The Pac-12 has an obvious lack of acceptable candidates but they also have insulation in that neither SEC or B1G is likely to look that far for members. The ACC is always going to show up on a target list of SEC and Big 10.

- B1G has a TV deal for top tier rights expiring in 2016. The question is whether Maryland/Rutgers additions were about that deal or BTN or both. Big 10 may yet determine that adding two more makes financial sense, if they've not done something in the next 18 months, they are clearly ready to settle in long-term.

- SEC. The SECN launch almost certainly puts the SEC in a pause unless the B1G acts and there is bargain hunting to do.

The PAC and Big 12 have insulation right now but if meetings say all 5 conferences have an equal number of schools say 14 each then They will have to change some conference policies to bring in other schools .

(01-14-2014 10:23 AM)CardFan1 Wrote:  The PAC and Big 12 have insulation right now but if meetings say all 5 conferences have an equal number of schools say 14 each then They will have to change some conference policies to bring in other schools .

Can't happen, setting an equal number that is.

They can set a number to eligible for contract bowl status, they can even set a minimum to be an FBS league.

You have to count noses. Who might possibly vote 14 as the minimum (B1G, SEC, ACC, CUSA, MAC) who would oppose? Big XII, Pac-12, Sun Belt AAC MWC.

Now what if 12 full members were the target?
B1G, SEC, ACC, Pac-12, CUSA, MAC, opposed AAC, MWC, Sun Belt, Big XII.

But what's the incentive for B1G, SEC, ACC, Pac-12 to force Big XII to expand? That elevates two more schools to "the club" why would they want to do that? A Big XII title game would elevate the Big XII champ to the four team playoff slightly more often than it would knock them out.

(01-14-2014 08:31 AM)MinerInWisconsin Wrote:  Part of the push to more expansion will be what comes out of the ncaa meetings later this week and final decisions likely in the spring. Also, to some degree, what happens with the ACC idea of changing the way FB championship games are staged. Something coming out of these issues could push the Big 12 to go to 12 or beyond. Less likely but still possible that other conferences could see more money involved in semi-finals for FB. An interesting few months coming up.

If the case that you don't have to have divisions to hold a CCG, then the Big 12 can add just 1 team and not worry about who #12 is. That opens a lot of options for the Big 12. Perhaps they only add Cincy and be done with expansion. There is no need for further expansion and you can have a round robin basketball schedule also if wanted.

(01-14-2014 10:31 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  But what's the incentive for B1G, SEC, ACC, Pac-12 to force Big XII to expand? That elevates two more schools to "the club" why would they want to do that? A Big XII title game would elevate the Big XII champ to the four team playoff slightly more often than it would knock them out.

If ESPN tells them that there is more money if everyone has a championship game, then they'll probably listen.

(01-14-2014 10:59 AM)MWC Tex Wrote:  If the case that you don't have to have divisions to hold a CCG, then the Big 12 can add just 1 team and not worry about who #12 is.

If you don't have to have divisions, if the entire conference title game process is "de-regulated", then the Big 12 stays at 10 schools, adds a conference title game for an extra $20-25 million/year in TV rights, and laughs at every league that has to split their money 12 or 14 ways instead of just 10.

on our end...

depending on what happens in these NCAA meetings, the Hawaii FB-only status in the Mountain West may be revisited. I think Grand Canyon, Seattle and Bakersfield may all be looking our way as well.

(01-14-2014 08:20 AM)Cnelson203 Wrote:  In recent postings (here's one example of a blog I follow: http://conferenceexpansion.com/) there seem to be three possible expansion scenarios that have some possibility of unfolding this off-season (let's say by June 30). Which are most likely and why, in your opinion?

1. Big 12 expanding to a minimum of 12. (The blog I mentioned above is really pressing for UCF to be one of those adds.)
2. The Sun Belt adding a 12th member: You can see a huge discussion on who the candidates are, on the SB board on CSNBBS
3. The MAC either reducing it's footprint to 12 teams, or adding a 14th team. (Centers on the UMass issue.)

IMO, the only potential for immediate action is the Sun Belt, and I won't speculate on the who. There is enough of that going on. I don't see any imperative for the MAC to move (although I'd love to hear from MAC fans on this subject) and I clearly think the Big12 is quite content with their round robin format, unless something drastic happens at the convention this week. I don't see any action with AAC, C-USA, MWC or the other four P5 conferences, in the short term.

Thoughts? (Let's try to keep this thread to "immediate action" (next five months.))

I don't think any of those things will necessarily happen in the next five months. But I do think the Sun Belt will, one way or another, have a 12th football-member by the time of the 2017 football season, and possibly by the time of the 2016 season. Anything sooner than that seems unlikely, IMHO, but we shall see.

Also keep in mind that -- once WKU leaves and App State + Ga.So. are on board -- Sun Belt will have 9 members for all-sports, 11 members for football (9 + Idaho & NMSU) and 11 members for other sports (9 + UT/Arlington & UALR). So in a sense they will be looking for a 14th member, not a 12th member.

(01-14-2014 12:25 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(01-14-2014 10:31 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  But what's the incentive for B1G, SEC, ACC, Pac-12 to force Big XII to expand? That elevates two more schools to "the club" why would they want to do that? A Big XII title game would elevate the Big XII champ to the four team playoff slightly more often than it would knock them out.

If ESPN tells them that there is more money if everyone has a championship game, then they'll probably listen.

Big XII having a title game isn't going to increase revenue for the ACC, SEC, B1G and P12

(01-14-2014 01:38 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  

(01-14-2014 08:20 AM)Cnelson203 Wrote:  In recent postings (here's one example of a blog I follow: http://conferenceexpansion.com/) there seem to be three possible expansion scenarios that have some possibility of unfolding this off-season (let's say by June 30). Which are most likely and why, in your opinion?

1. Big 12 expanding to a minimum of 12. (The blog I mentioned above is really pressing for UCF to be one of those adds.)
2. The Sun Belt adding a 12th member: You can see a huge discussion on who the candidates are, on the SB board on CSNBBS
3. The MAC either reducing it's footprint to 12 teams, or adding a 14th team. (Centers on the UMass issue.)

IMO, the only potential for immediate action is the Sun Belt, and I won't speculate on the who. There is enough of that going on. I don't see any imperative for the MAC to move (although I'd love to hear from MAC fans on this subject) and I clearly think the Big12 is quite content with their round robin format, unless something drastic happens at the convention this week. I don't see any action with AAC, C-USA, MWC or the other four P5 conferences, in the short term.

Thoughts? (Let's try to keep this thread to "immediate action" (next five months.))

I don't think any of those things will necessarily happen in the next five months. But I do think the Sun Belt will, one way or another, have a 12th football-member by the time of the 2017 football season, and possibly by the time of the 2016 season. Anything sooner than that seems unlikely, IMHO, but we shall see.

Also keep in mind that -- once WKU leaves and App State + Ga.So. are on board -- Sun Belt will have 9 members for all-sports, 11 members for football (9 = Idaho & NMSU) and 11 members for other sports (9 + UT/Arlington and UALR). So in a sense they will be looking for a 14th member, not a 12th member.

My bad. I keep forgetting about UTA and UALR...I tend to think only football (it's a genetic flaw...)

(01-14-2014 01:31 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  depending on what happens in these NCAA meetings, the Hawaii FB-only status in the Mountain West may be revisited.

Meaning that Hawaii would become a full member of the MWC?

(01-14-2014 02:18 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(01-14-2014 01:31 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  depending on what happens in these NCAA meetings, the Hawaii FB-only status in the Mountain West may be revisited.

Meaning that Hawaii would become a full member of the MWC?

or Independent in football.

(01-14-2014 10:12 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  Some thoughts on what is known plus some speculation.

-The MAC has opened its negotiations with ESPN, they are in one of the look-in exclusive negotiation periods. If the MAC chooses to re-up that means ESPN is willing to put more dollars on the table now and extend the current contract. Rumor mill says ESPN and MAC will more likely than not sign a new deal for more money for a longer term extending through at least the 2019 season probably 2021. Speculation is that if that appears to be the case, UMass will be shown the numbers and given an ultimatium to join or they will be out following the 2015 season. If UMass accepts they will add one and odds are if the MAC feels they have the leverage to pursue that path, the MAC TV numbers will be good enough that UMass has to give it strong consideration.

- Sun Belt by all accounts the league is vapor-locked between those willing to add any warm body and those willing to wait JMU or Missouri State as well as those not willing to concede the NMSU issue just yet.

- C-USA unless Bankowsky is keeping it out of the rumor mill, the league doesn't plan to open its TV talks on a serious basis until probably around this time next year. The conference probably does nothing until they have some idea where things are headed.

- AAC their deal runs to 2020, unlikely they take any action unless it is a reaction.

Good Stuff. Here is some more:

-To maximize dollars, ESPN is requiring the MAC to sign a GOR. I am almost certain UMass is unwilling to sign a GOR with the MAC. For the other MAC schools a GOR would be the highest possible ground because not only would they have the TV money but the low travel footprint.

-I wouldn't rule out UMASS to CUSA. CUSA's policy on TV is that the departing member owes to the conference the value of its TV rights for all the remaining years of its contract. That is an easier situation to deal with than a GOR. CUSA is currently making 1.41 per school on its TV deal not much less than the AAC. UMass would definitely help CUSA in basketball and football would fit in with all the other newbie FCS upgrade programs.

-If the AAC is going to make a name for itself with all the basketball competition out there its going to have to do it in football. For 2020 it if they can somehow convince BYU, AFA an Army to join they'll have a shot at a much larger contract and bowl lineup. Any talk of adding basketball only schools to boost the contract is absurd when 80% of the money is for football. VCU to the AAC is a particularly retarded idea for them considering they were able to get into the storied A10 where key rivals Richmond, George Mason and George Washington play.

-The SBC if it loses another school or 2 to CUSA may just want to hang around at 9 or 10 members since the conference only has 3 bowl tie-ins for the next bowl cycle. This way there is more opportunities and money per school. The SBC is locked into both bowls and TV until 2020 and at that point could be ready for some new opportunities to expand but why do so before that?

(01-14-2014 02:32 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(01-14-2014 10:12 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  

Good Stuff. Here is some more:

-To maximize dollars, ESPN is requiring the MAC to sign a GOR. I am almost certain UMass is unwilling to sign a GOR with the MAC. For the other MAC schools a GOR would be the highest possible ground because not only would they have the TV money but the low travel footprint.

-I wouldn't rule out UMASS to CUSA. CUSA's policy on TV is that the departing member owes to the conference the value of its TV rights for all the remaining years of its contract. That is an easier situation to deal with than a GOR. CUSA is currently making 1.41 per school on its TV deal not much less than the AAC. UMass would definitely help CUSA in basketball and football would fit in with all the other newbie FCS upgrade programs.

-If the AAC is going to make a name for itself with all the basketball competition out there its going to have to do it in football. For 2020 it if they can somehow convince BYU, AFA an Army to join they'll have a shot at a much larger contract and bowl lineup. Any talk of adding basketball only schools to boost the contract is absurd when 80% of the money is for football. VCU to the AAC is a particularly retarded idea for them considering they were able to get into the storied A10 where key rivals Richmond, George Mason and George Washington play.

-The SBC if it loses another school or 2 to CUSA may just want to hang around at 9 or 10 members since the conference only has 3 bowl tie-ins for the next bowl cycle. This way there is more opportunities and money per school. The SBC is locked into both bowls and TV until 2020 and at that point could be ready for some new opportunities to expand but why do so before that?

Does it really appear that there are high flight risks in the MAC? If not why would the GOR make sense for the MAC unless to force UMass's hand.

Why would UMass agree to put their basketball in C-USA when they won't do it in the MAC?

(01-14-2014 02:31 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(01-14-2014 02:18 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(01-14-2014 01:31 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  depending on what happens in these NCAA meetings, the Hawaii FB-only status in the Mountain West may be revisited.

Meaning that Hawaii would become a full member of the MWC?

or Independent in football.

If Hawaii left the MWC, that would touch off some more realignment/poaching.

(01-14-2014 02:32 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(01-14-2014 10:12 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  Some thoughts on what is known plus some speculation.

-The MAC has opened its negotiations with ESPN, they are in one of the look-in exclusive negotiation periods. If the MAC chooses to re-up that means ESPN is willing to put more dollars on the table now and extend the current contract. Rumor mill says ESPN and MAC will more likely than not sign a new deal for more money for a longer term extending through at least the 2019 season probably 2021. Speculation is that if that appears to be the case, UMass will be shown the numbers and given an ultimatium to join or they will be out following the 2015 season. If UMass accepts they will add one and odds are if the MAC feels they have the leverage to pursue that path, the MAC TV numbers will be good enough that UMass has to give it strong consideration.

- Sun Belt by all accounts the league is vapor-locked between those willing to add any warm body and those willing to wait JMU or Missouri State as well as those not willing to concede the NMSU issue just yet.

- C-USA unless Bankowsky is keeping it out of the rumor mill, the league doesn't plan to open its TV talks on a serious basis until probably around this time next year. The conference probably does nothing until they have some idea where things are headed.

- AAC their deal runs to 2020, unlikely they take any action unless it is a reaction.

Good Stuff. Here is some more:

-To maximize dollars, ESPN is requiring the MAC to sign a GOR. I am almost certain UMass is unwilling to sign a GOR with the MAC. For the other MAC schools a GOR would be the highest possible ground because not only would they have the TV money but the low travel footprint.

-I wouldn't rule out UMASS to CUSA. CUSA's policy on TV is that the departing member owes to the conference the value of its TV rights for all the remaining years of its contract. That is an easier situation to deal with than a GOR. CUSA is currently making 1.41 per school on its TV deal not much less than the AAC. UMass would definitely help CUSA in basketball and football would fit in with all the other newbie FCS upgrade programs.

-If the AAC is going to make a name for itself with all the basketball competition out there its going to have to do it in football. For 2020 it if they can somehow convince BYU, AFA an Army to join they'll have a shot at a much larger contract and bowl lineup. Any talk of adding basketball only schools to boost the contract is absurd when 80% of the money is for football. VCU to the AAC is a particularly retarded idea for them considering they were able to get into the storied A10 where key rivals Richmond, George Mason and George Washington play.

-The SBC if it loses another school or 2 to CUSA may just want to hang around at 9 or 10 members since the conference only has 3 bowl tie-ins for the next bowl cycle. This way there is more opportunities and money per school. The SBC is locked into both bowls and TV until 2020 and at that point could be ready for some new opportunities to expand but why do so before that?

lol...I don't know if I would call VCU to the AAC "retarded". My feeling is the A-10 is likely to take another hit in the next 12 months. Say Richmond and St Louis head to the Big East---if the AAC invited VCU and UMass olympics, I'm thinking they might be fairly interested. Who knows, maybe they tell us to go fly a kite, but I tend to think the following line up might be attractive to them.

UConn
UMass
Cinci
Memphis
VCU
Dayton
Temple

Actually, I think getting VCU to say yes might be easier than convincing the necessary majority of AAC school to invite non-football schools again.

(01-14-2014 03:31 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(01-14-2014 02:31 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  

(01-14-2014 02:18 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(01-14-2014 01:31 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  depending on what happens in these NCAA meetings, the Hawaii FB-only status in the Mountain West may be revisited.

Meaning that Hawaii would become a full member of the MWC?

or Independent in football.

If Hawaii left the MWC, that would touch off some more realignment/poaching.

Probably not as much as you think. Hawai'i to independent. MWC then takes Idaho (because UTEP/NM don't want NMSU in the league) as they are really the only choice for them (unless they want to reach all the way to San Marcos to take Texas State - which I see as unlikely). The Belt sits at 10 teams. No major moves.