Next season a group of five (AAC, Conference USA, MAC, MW, Sun Belt) team gets into the one of the major bowls (Cotton, Fiesta, Chick-fil-A) (Note: Rose and Sugar are semifinal games and the Orange Bowl is reserved for — ACC #1 vs. SEC #2, Big Ten #2, or Notre Dame.)

I thought I’d unscientifically try and break down NIU’s competition. I’m going to try keep this as simple as possible, just name teams from those five conferences that made bowls last season and see their schedules and who they bring back. I’m only going to focus on skill positions because that’s the easiest way to look up players from ESPN.com. I understand that players transfer, teams/players come out of nowhere, teams are made up of more than just skill players but if you want to go through teams depth charts and do lineman and defense, be my guest. This is just supposed to be a bit of fun so I’m hoping I don’t get too many *HOW DID YOU FORGET (Insert Team)? THEY RETURN THEIR ENTIRE DEFENSE!!!* type comments. For the QB/RB/WR depth chart I’m going to use the QB with the most attempts, RB with the most yards, and WR’s with the most catches that are coming back. If you’re still lost, notice that UCF is missing Bortles and Storm Johnson because they aren’t coming back. I also felt we’ll cover the MAC over and over in the off-season so I left MAC teams off, for now.

American Athletic Conference

UCF 12-1
QB: J. Holman 9/14 75 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
RB: W. Stanback 443 yards, 6 TD
WR: R. Hall 57 receptions, 886 yards, 5 TD
B. Perriman 39/811/4
J.J. Worton 47/721/7
Non-conference schedule…08/30 - Penn State (at Dublin, Ireland), 09/06 - Florida International, 09/13 - at Missouri, 10/11 – BYU

East Carolina 10-3
QB: S. Carden 387/549 4139, 33/10
RB: B. Allen 311/3
WR: J. Hardy 114/1284/8
I. Jones 62/604/5
B. Williams 20/220/5
Non-conference schedule…08/30 - NC Central, 09/06 - at South Carolina, 09/13 - at Virginia Tech, 09/20 - North Carolina

Cincinnati 9-4
QB: B. Coney 6/7 84, 1/1
RB: H. Williams 655/4
WR: S. Washington 78/783/1
C. Moore 45/645/9
M. McKay 16/485/7
Non-conference schedule…09/13 – Toledo, 09/20 - Miami (OH), 09/27 - at Ohio State, 10/11 - at Miami (FL)

Houston 8-5
QB: J. O’Korn 259/446 3117, 28/10
RB: R. Jackson 661/6
WR: D. Greenberry 82/1202/11
D. Spencer 52/678/6
M. Ambles 17/252/1
Non-conference schedule…08/30 – UTSA, 09/27 - at BYU

Tulane 7-6
QB: N. Montana 158/296 1717, 14/10
RB: R. Kelley 420/3
WR: J. Shackleford 36/419/5
X. Rush 17/196/1
R. Kelley (RB) 18/176/1
Non-conference schedule…08/30 - Southeastern Louisiana, 09/06 - Georgia Tech, 09/27 - at Rutgers, TBA - at Duke

Conference Outlook… UCF and Cincy are going to be very inexperienced at the QB position. I can see both of them losing two non-conference games. East Carolina has talent coming back but a brutal non-conference schedule. Houston brings back a lot of firepower to an 8 win team. Seems like the conference winner will have at least 3 losses. This is probably the strongest conference out of the group of five so they might get more leeway with the committee with 2 losses, against lets say a 1 loss MAC team but I feel they’re going to beat up on each other and the victor will have its fair share of losses.

Conference USA

Marshall 10-4
QB: R. Cato 298/499 3916, 39/9
RB: S. Butler 685/8
WR: T. Shuler 106/1165/10
C. Wilkins 32/408/2
D. Johnson (TE) 12/218/2
Non-conference schedule…08/30 - at Miami (OH), 09/13 – Ohio, 09/20 - at Akron, 09/27 - Rhode Island

Rice 10-4
QB: D. Jackson 5/16 50, 0/1
RB: J. Davis 476/3
WR: J. Taylor 55/848/8
D. Parks 29/508/3
T. Petersen (RB) 26/348/4
Non-conference schedule…08/30 - at Notre Dame, 09/06 - New Mexico State, 09/13 - at Texas A&M, 10/11 - at Army

North Texas 9-4
QB: D. Williams 5/6 55, 0/0
RB: A. Jimmerson 446/7
WR: C. Harris 47/553/2
D. Kidsy 16/151/0
M. Smith 6/95/0
Non-conference schedule…08/30 - at Texas, 09/06 – SMU, 10/04 - at Indiana

Middle Tennessee State 8-5
QB: A. Grammer 21/46 190, 1/2
RB: J. Parker 745/6
WR: M. Henry 38/549/3
D. Clarke 18/318/0
C. Collis 18/228/0
Non-conference schedule…08/30 - Savannah State, 09/06 - at Minnesota, 09/20 - at Memphis, 11/01 - BYU

Conference Outlook… Marshall looks like it has the perfect storm to go after another double digit win season. They have talent coming back and a relatively easy non-conference slate. The rest of the conference doesn’t look like they have enough firepower.

Mountain West

Fresno St. 11-2
QB: B.Burrell 7/12 51, 0/0
RB: J. Quezada 807/6
WR: J. Harper 79/1011/13
J. Quezada 51/290/1
G. Watson 25/281/1
Non-conference schedule…08/30 - at USC, 09/06 - at Utah, 09/13 – Nebraska, 09/20 - Southern Utah

Utah St. 9-5
QB: C. Keeton 136/196 1388, 18/2
RB: J. Hill 252/1
WR: B. Natson 59/395/2
B. Swindell 29/285/6
R. Butler 24/346/3
Non-conference schedule…08/30 - at Tennessee, 09/06 - Idaho State, 09/13 - Wake Forest, 09/27 - at Arkansas State, 10/03 - at BYU

Boise St. 8-5
QB: G. Hedrick 167/242 1825, 16/5
RB: J. Ajayi 1425/18
WR: M. Miller 88/1140/12
S. Williams-Rhodes 77/702/6
J. Ajayi (RB) 22/222/1
Non-conference schedule…08/28 - Ole Miss (at Atlanta, GA), 09/13 - at Connecticut, 09/20 - UL Lafayette, 10/25 – BYU

San Diego St. 8-5
QB: Q.Kaehler 232/389 3007, 19/9
RB: A. Muema 1244/15
WR: E. Ruffin 68/1136/3
D. Pumphrey (RB) 22/234/2
A. Roberts (TE) 20/217/3
Non-conference schedule…08/30 - Northern Arizona, 09/06 - at North Carolina, 09/20 - at Oregon State, 11/08 – Idaho

Colorado St. 8-6
QB: G. Grayson 297/478 3698, 23/11
RB: D. Alexander 428/2
WR: R. Higgins 68/837/6
J. Hansley 52/613/1
K. Cartwright (TE) 27/462/6
Non-conference schedule…08/30 - Colorado (at Denver, CO), 09/06 – Tulsa, 09/13 - UC Davis, 09/27 - at Boston College

UNLV 7-6
QB: N. Sherry 41/75 2718, 3/5
RB: S. Murray-Lawrence 418/2
WR: D. Davis 87/1290/14
M. Sullivan 45/505/5
A. Williams 21/188/1
Non-conference schedule…08/30 - at Arizona, 09/13 – NIU, 09/20 - Northern Colorado, 11/15 - at BYU

Conference Outlook… Fresno St. does lose Carr but returns a lot of talent around their new starter (similar to NIU). Their non-conference schedule might trip them up a couple of times as Burrell (or whoever else is the starter) eases into the role. They’re going to get tested for their first three games, a 0-3 start isn’t out of the question. Utah St. can make some noise. They have a tough but not impossibly hard non-conference schedule. If they can come out of it 4-1 they’ll be in great shape entering conference season. Boise St. will be one to watch. An opening weekend victory vs. Ole Miss can do wonders to build confidence/momentum/national attention and the schedule eases from there. Boise St. gets Utah St. at home this season. Things line up nicely for the Broncos. A common theme for the Mountain West continues with San Diego St./Colorado St. Lots of returning talent and the ability to impress in their non-conference schedules. UNLV should be a non-factor in a loaded conference. The battle for the Mountain Division (Utah St./Boise St./Colorado St.) should be fun to watch.

Sun Belt

Louisiana-Lafayette 9-4
QB: T. Broadway 166/266 2419, 19/12
RB: A. Harris 942/14
WR: J. Robinson 54/862/8
J. Butler 26/363/1
E. McGuire 863/8
Non-conference schedule… 08/30 – Southern, 09/13 - at Ole Miss, 09/20 - at Boise State, 10/04 - Louisiana Tech

Arkansas St. 8-5
QB: F. Knighten 34/48 215, 2/1
RB: M. Gordon 754/10
WR: J.D. McKissic 82/662/4
D. Griswold (TE) 24/312/3
M. Gordon (RB) 16/206/1
Non-conference schedule… 09/06 - at Tennessee, 09/27 - Utah State, TBA - at Miami (FL)

Conference Outlook… Louisiana-Lafayette and Arkansas St both have two tough non-conference road games. I think they both lose two non-conference games (maybe three for ASU) which will hamper their chances for the highest ranked group of five bid.

Final Thoughts...I think the teams to look out for will be (in no order) Houston, Marshall, and the winner of the Mountain Division (Utah St./Boise St./Colorado St.)

The non-conference schedules are interesting. Marshall plays 3 MAC teams and Rhode Island. Not going to look good for their SOS. And UCF has Penn St, Missouri, FIU, and BYU. Not really comparable. I like the game in Dublin-that would be a nice road trip.

I'm surprised to see how much love UCF is getting in the early preseason polls actually with what they are losing. Clearly winning the BCS game vs just getting there makes all the difference in the world.

Isn't Rutgers in the B1G next year?

Yes, Rutgers is in the Big Ten next year. Marshall could run the table and a one loss team would probably get the nod for the access bowl with having beat a power 5 team over 3 MAC in the OCC

(01-11-2014 11:50 AM)scottiep12 Wrote:  Isn't Rutgers in the B1G next year?

You're right, I edited it. Thanks for the catch.

Edited to add the Mountain West and Sun Belt. I'll eventually do the MAC.

The Mountain West is way deeper than I thought.

Wouldn't surprise me to see Marshall go undefeated. Look at their schedule. For OOC they play Akron, Miami, Ohio & Rhode Island. They had Louisville on their schedule but that got pushed back due to their ACC move. But with their schedule, if there's a one-loss G5 team that team can easily get the nod over Marshall due to SOS, especially an AAC team

QB is damn good too. He'll be one of the "under-the-radar" Heisman candidates

(01-12-2014 09:15 AM)HuskieRak Wrote:  Wouldn't surprise me to see Marshall go undefeated. Look at their schedule. For OOC they play Akron, Miami, Ohio & Rhode Island. They had Louisville on their schedule but that got pushed back due to their ACC move. But with their schedule, if there's a one-loss G5 team that team can easily get the nod over Marshall due to SOS, especially an AAC team

QB is damn good too. He'll be one of the "under-the-radar" Heisman candidates

My thoughts exactly. If NIU is going to take this they have to at the very least be 3-1 entering conference season and they have to run through the MAC. They could do it with one loss, I think two will be too much to overcome. I would like a Bowling Green rematch for the MAC title, hopefully they are ranked.

Isn't ECU joining the AAC in the fall? I am pretty sure this was their last season for football in CUSA. I think Tulane and Tulsa will also be in.

(01-12-2014 12:47 PM)HuskieTap22 Wrote:  Isn't ECU joining the AAC in the fall? I am pretty sure this was their last season for football in CUSA. I think Tulane and Tulsa will also be in.

Nice catch, edited to reflect it.

Marshall might have the weakest OOC schedule I have seen in a while with 3 MAC teams, and three of the lesser teams in the league at that. Talk about a soft schedule. If they run the table I would have to think they would be hard pressed to end up ranked ahead of a one loss team from another G5 league. No way a committee is wowed by that schedule unless all the other contenders have multiple losses.

Great thread and good work, OP.

Pretty sure Devante Adams is going pro (Fresno WR).

Nice thread, great job on the analysis. On one hand, I think the Mountain West will have a very strong team emerge to be that Go5 team. But, on the other hand, some of those teams will beat each other up. So, it is hard to say. Marshall is the type of team though that will stay way down in the rankings, and by the time they get noticed they would probably be behind 1 loss MWC teams. That would be a very interesting scenario. What if Utah St is 12-1, MWC champ and won a few OOC games stacked up against an undefeated Marshall who played no one OOC.

(01-12-2014 12:36 PM)PrideinthePack Wrote:  

(01-12-2014 09:15 AM)HuskieRak Wrote:  Wouldn't surprise me to see Marshall go undefeated. Look at their schedule. For OOC they play Akron, Miami, Ohio & Rhode Island. They had Louisville on their schedule but that got pushed back due to their ACC move. But with their schedule, if there's a one-loss G5 team that team can easily get the nod over Marshall due to SOS, especially an AAC team

QB is damn good too. He'll be one of the "under-the-radar" Heisman candidates

My thoughts exactly. If NIU is going to take this they have to at the very least be 3-1 entering conference season and they have to run through the MAC. They could do it with one loss, I think two will be too much to overcome. I would like a Bowling Green rematch for the MAC title, hopefully they are ranked.

If NIU has 1 loss(hopefully it is to NU or Ark, and they would have to do well for NIU to overcome that)

I'm going to update this throughout the season. Seeing how teams are doing so we can get a clearer picture.

We should worry about winning the MAC!

(04-08-2014 10:07 PM)yesman815 Wrote:  We should worry about winning the MAC!

YAH CUZ WHAT FANZ THINK ABOUT AFFECTS THE TEEM!!!111!ONE!!1!

(04-09-2014 10:24 AM)clcfball11 Wrote:  

(04-08-2014 10:07 PM)yesman815 Wrote:  We should worry about winning the MAC!

YAH CUZ WHAT FANZ THINK ABOUT AFFECTS THE TEEM!!!111!ONE!!1!

lol

This year actually sets up nicely for the Huskies. NIU has 2 AQ games this year which is a big edge over G5 teams that have none(Houston, Marshall) or 1. NIU's AQ games are also winnable, several G5 teams have overscheduled. The other big edge MAC programs have is not scheduling tough Indy teams like Navy & BYU. Half the MWC programs schedule BYU who while a tough opponent is not AQ. So a win doesn't help you all that much, while a loss can ruin your Access Bowl chances. The only Indy teams a MAC program should schedule are Army(who most MAC teams should beat) or Notre Dame(no need to explain that one).

There will be very few G5 teams with 2 wins over P5 teams this year and if NIU pulls that off the Huskies will be in strong consideration for the Access Bowl provided they go undefeated in conference which quite frankly should not be that hard with both Toledo & BSU replacing lots of talent and BG not on the regular season schedule

Based on recruiting, returning talent and schedule; Boise, Colorado State(Bipps has declared for the NFL draft also so one less talent to be concerned over) and UCF are the only G5 teams to be concerned about and if UCF losses to Penn State in Ireland that would be a big help for the Huskies chances.