Today is the annual SEC vs B1G challenge, in the form of the Gator, Cap One, and Outback bowls. The SEC has had the edge in recent years, but what about today? Here's my take:

Outback Bowl: #16 LSU is a big favorite against unranked Iowa, but I don't see it that way. First, Iowa is a better team than the pollsters think. Iowa was only one game worse than LSU this season, 8-4 vs 9-3, and if you think LSU played a much tougher schedule, think again: According to Sagarin, Iowa played the #41 schedule, much tougher than most B1G teams, and only slightly less tough than LSU's. Second, LSU is missing some big personnel. A freshman QB will be making his first-ever start for LSU after Zach Mettenberger blew out his knee in their season finale, and Ego Ferguson, a top-shelf NFL draft prospect will miss the game as well, hurting an already weak LSU defense.

In contrast, Iowa will be nearly at full strength, and seems more motivated, just about selling out their ticket allotment, whereas LSU struggled to sell half of theirs. I suspect that in this case fan motivation reflects team motivation, and in football, motivation matters.

Iowa 27
LSU 17

Cap One Bowl: The BCS standings say South Carolina is #9 and Wisconsin #19 but the oddsmakers have made Wisconsin a 2-point favorite, and computer simulations predict a 7-point Badgers win.

I side with the bookies and computers. First, Wisconsin is just too good a program to lose four straight bowls, and after three heatwrenching Rose Bowl losses, I think they are due for a win. Conversely, SC has tended to underperform in bowl games under Spurrier. His record is 3-4, and last year they needed Clowney's big hit to barely beat a Michigan team they seemingly were clearly superior to on paper. In short, SC is due for a loss.

Second, Clowney will definitely not be selling out his body this year like he did last year. He is protecting himself for the draft, and will likely go through the motions in this one. Finally, SC badly wanted to go to the Cotton Bowl and the Cap One is regarded by their fans as a letdown, even though it is higher in the SEC bowl pecking order. Expect Wisconsin to pound out a win over the Gamecocks.

Wisconsin 31
South Carolina 16

Gator Bowl: The Gator Bowl usually finds itself with teams that had disappointing seasons, and this year is no different. Both Georgia and Nebraska expected to be conference-title contenders this year, and both fell woefully short. Also, this probably should be called the MIA bowl, as both teams are banged up. Nebraska is missing 4 starters, including QB-for-Life Taylor Martinez, but Georgia is even worse off, missing 7 starters for various reasons.

Still, Nebraska has to travel a long way to Jacksonville, whereas that city is practically in Georgia's backyard. Heck, they've already played there once this year, against Florida. This quasi-home field advantage should be enough to allow the Dawgs to flop past the Huskers. Plus, whereas Nebraska strikes me as a puffed up team, a team with less talent than it seems to have, Georgia is a really talented team that has underperformed and had some bad luck and injuries. Georgia should have a significant athletic/talent advantage on the field, even with the missing pieces.

Georgia 19
Nebraska 10

Excellent analysis, qv. I have felt like the loss of Mettenberger could hurt LSU a great deal, but I keep remembering an Iowa game this season in which one thought kept repeating in my mind..... slow. While I normally think on Iowa in terms of running game and controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, this group just looks slow to me. I don't how they have won eight games this season with an apparent lack of team speed, but it's a credit to the coaching staff. I don't see a blowout -- probably because of my preconceived notions about Iowa's traditionally stout defenses -- but I do believe that LSU's overall speed will lead to a Tiger victory. I also think this could be Anthony Jennings' chance to solidify the starting QB role for LSU heading into next season.

The other two games, who knows. I don't have any confidence in Spurrier-led teams. They have often folded in big games, dating back to his Florida days. A Badger win wouldn't be a shock. Georgia has been so up and down that I don't know what to expect, but I haven't been very impressed with Nebraska when I have seen them. If Georgia gets rolling, it could get ugly.

So if I had to predict winners today, I'd say LSU, Wisconsin and Georgia.

(01-01-2014 11:39 AM)Zombiewoof Wrote:  Excellent analysis, qv. I have felt like the loss of Mettenberger could hurt LSU a great deal, but I keep remembering an Iowa game this season in which one thought kept repeating in my mind..... slow. While I normally think on Iowa in terms of running game and controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, this group just looks slow to me. I don't how they have won eight games this season with an apparent lack of team speed, but it's a credit to the coaching staff. I don't see a blowout -- probably because of my preconceived notions about Iowa's traditionally stout defenses -- but I do believe that LSU's overall speed will lead to a Tiger victory. I also think this could be Anthony Jennings' chance to solidify the starting QB role for LSU heading into next season.

The other two games, who knows. I don't have any confidence in Spurrier-led teams. They have often folded in big games, dating back to his Florida days. A Badger win wouldn't be a shock. Georgia has been so up and down that I don't know what to expect, but I haven't been very impressed with Nebraska when I have seen them. If Georgia gets rolling, it could get ugly.

So if I had to predict winners today, I'd say LSU, Wisconsin and Georgia.

Good points, Zombie. Thanks especially for the insights about Iowa, a team I saw only once this year.

Great analysis, thanks a bunch. Also keep in mind that Iowa's losses were to NIU, Michigan State, OSU, and Wisky, they've definitely gotten better as the season has gone on.

I believe this game will be all running on both sides. LSU's defensive backfield is much better and their running game will wear down Iowa's defensive front four.

Well, my "analysis" was WRONG on all three games!

Yup, the fail is strong with this one!

Hey, at least the B1G didn't get blown out today! That's something...

(01-01-2014 10:36 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Second, Clowney will definitely not be selling out his body this year like he did last year. He is protecting himself for the draft, and will likely go through the motions in this one.

Well...

Sure, I'm a homer, but I've never seen Clowney "mail it in" during a game. This kind of talk pisses me off because I know the guy and it's just not his style. The whole thing is a combination of ESPN spin and people not knowing a lot about football IMO.

1. Clowney always stands around with his hands on his hips and his head hung. This is his natural body language, not really him being out of shape or disinterested. Against UNC this year he was blasted for this despite the fact that 12 hours before the game he was puking his brains out. In reality he was amongst the fastest players in team conditioning this summer.

2. Clowney has played through several injuries throughout his career that no one knew about. He's battled bone spurs since high school, an injury that makes in very difficult to run with. For most of the 2012 season he had a shoulder injury that no one knew about. The "rib injury" he had this year that everyone blasted him for was a real thing that most people miss 1-2 weeks with. Clowney is only at fault because he practices with it and tried to play with only to realize a few hours before kickoff that he wouldn't be able to and was only risking further injury.

3. DE frequently rotate out, its not like QB where you play every snap of the game. I'm really not sure why he gets backlash for "taking himself out of the game" when literally every other DE in football does the same thing. Some people are just ignorant.

4. Clowney has had a ton of opportunities to shut it down over the last 12 months but didn't do it. ESPN fed this story way too much, partly because of ratings and partly because it's South Carolina, a school that isn't a storied program. It's kind of sickening that he gets singled out for this, almost like they have the attitude "Who actually wants to play at SC". I'd be willing to bet if Clowney had played at Notre Dame or Alabama then a lot of this criticism wouldn't have happened. This situation happens every year with elite players yet no one got asked to sit out more than Clowney

Not an attack on OP at all. I know I'm a homer and this is a massive rant but this **** pisses me off to no end and I had to get it off my chest. Clowney brought it every game of his career and I'm glad he chose to play for us. I'll sure as hell miss seeing him on the field next year

Congrats Gamecock! Conner Shaw was nearly perfect.

As far as Clowney goes, you'll still get to see him play next year. It just won't be for South Carolina. He'll probably go to the dadgum Falcons and I'll have to pull against him.

It was a nice try at some analysis but it couldn't have been more wrong.

With prognostication you win some and you lose some though.

(01-01-2014 08:50 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  It was a nice try at some analysis but it couldn't have been more wrong.

With prognostication you win some and you lose some though.

(01-01-2014 08:43 PM)Zombiewoof Wrote:  Congrats Gamecock! Conner Shaw was nearly perfect.

As far as Clowney goes, you'll still get to see him play next year. It just won't be for South Carolina. He'll probably go to the dadgum Falcons and I'll have to pull against him.

I hope its Houston or St Louis. He would be part of some nasty defensive lines with either team.

A part of me was kind of sad my Jets won 8 games, would have loved to see him on that line in Rex Ryan's system

(01-01-2014 08:50 PM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  It was a nice try at some analysis but it couldn't have been more wrong.

With prognostication you win some and you lose some though.

It's all BS until the clock hits zero. I just wish we could hold the network pundits as accountable as Quo held himself. He was no more wrong than many of them, and they are that wrong almost every week. In fact there is such a long line of ex jocks that would love analyst positions and an even longer line of would be sportscasters who would like a crack at TV that ESPN, FOX, and CBS should replace all of these pundits who miss more than 50% at the end of every season. There are a few of them that if they ever picked Auburn I would be worried.