In the past, the MAC East fans have been upset that the MAC West teams hurt their RPIs but it looks like this year, they will be helped by playing a couple of the West teams. Here is where the RPIs currently sit:

39. Toledo
53. EMU
70. Ohio
127. Buffalo
137. Akron
140. Bowling Green
163. Kent State
173. NIU (Wow)
184. Miami
192. WMU
278. CMU
308. Ball State

Other notable RPIs:

2. Kansas
11. Ohio State
42. Cincinnati
43. Xavier
60. Dayton

Rockets SOS rank 210 out of 351. Kansas SOS wasn't hurt by playing the Rockets as their SOS is #2.

BTW, while I'm thinking about it now, I'll pose the question for those on this board.

I know that the Rockets basically need to win the MAC to get to the NCAAs and any team between EMU to Akron, etc. can take that from Toledo at tournament time but still, there can not be a doubt among anyone at this point that Coach K can elevate this program to a point that at least I've never seen it. I posted last year when the Rockets were doing well that Coach K was basically coaching the last few years with both and then one arm tied behind his back and the progress and success he was was having was amazing. I don't think even Tom Izzo could have come in and turned the team around quicker and/or better. With that said and I know that since we are a football school first, this would never happen but how would you all feel if Toledo and AD MOB decided to make basketball a priority and do what was necessary to keep Coach K here? It is less expensive to pay a bball coach and staff than football and Coach K makes $280k per year I believe. Xavier's HC makes about $500k and Cincinnati's makes about $1.2M.

Again, I know that Toledo isn't going to dish out about a mill per year but if suddenly you heard that we were going to have Coach K here for 20 more years (he's 47) and the program was going to be elevated to an annual national name like Cincinnati for that time period but we were going to continue to tread the water in football like we have since like 2005, would you all be upset or would you feel it is a good trade-off? I personally would be all on board. NIU can have football lol. (and I've always been a football first guy)

OK by me but it will never happen while we're in the MAC, especially with an 18 game conference season. It would take years of the kind of success we're having now before we could get 8 or 9 home OOC games and some "name" schools to play at Savage. In the meantime Coach K has to continue to get top recruits year in and out competing against OSU, MSU, UM and others. At the same time the MAC would have to become a multiple bid league because even dominant yeams like Akron have been shut out in the past. Kent is probably the closest example of an attempt to do this and they went from having the worst hoops record all-time of any conference team to being a consistent MAC power. Got good recruits, good coaches and an OCCASIONAL trip to the NCAAs. On the national scale they were barely a pimple. Until/unless we leave the MAC, your scenario won't happen.

(01-01-2014 04:23 AM)Campbell4President Wrote:  BTW, while I'm thinking about it now, I'll pose the question for those on this board.

I know that the Rockets basically need to win the MAC to get to the NCAAs and any team between EMU to Akron, etc. can take that from Toledo at tournament time but still, there can not be a doubt among anyone at this point that Coach K can elevate this program to a point that at least I've never seen it. I posted last year when the Rockets were doing well that Coach K was basically coaching the last few years with both and then one arm tied behind his back and the progress and success he was was having was amazing. I don't think even Tom Izzo could have come in and turned the team around quicker and/or better. With that said and I know that since we are a football school first, this would never happen but how would you all feel if Toledo and AD MOB decided to make basketball a priority and do what was necessary to keep Coach K here? It is less expensive to pay a bball coach and staff than football and Coach K makes $280k per year I believe. Xavier's HC makes about $500k and Cincinnati's makes about $1.2M.

Again, I know that Toledo isn't going to dish out about a mill per year but if suddenly you heard that we were going to have Coach K here for 20 more years (he's 47) and the program was going to be elevated to an annual national name like Cincinnati for that time period but we were going to continue to tread the water in football like we have since like 2005, would you all be upset or would you feel it is a good trade-off? I personally would be all on board. NIU can have football lol. (and I've always been a football first guy)

I would prefer to get rid of basketball completely and bring back wrestling!

Any of our major sport coaches, if they wanted to be gone, they could be gone for a higher salary. It might be they're happy here or about waiting for the right opportunity.

Coach K want's to compete on bigger stages. He stated as much for the reason he came here. We could give him the football coach's salary and it still wouldn't match his market. He's here, until he wants to leave. Coach Beckman came in with a reputation for rebuilding and he found out how much more difficult that is to do in the AQ conferences as opposed to a mid-major. Hopefully, Coach K doesn't have in mind to rebuild another program and is waiting for a program already in decent shape to open, as they do from time to time. This would keep him here longer. Hopefully Coach K is grooming a successor so the program isn't high and dry when he does leave.

Coack K is making $340,000 this year (per Blade), but all of these numbers are fluid and extras can pump the number up considerably.

As good as this team has played in the preseason, I don't think we can expect them just to roll into places like Athens or Akron and easily grab wins. Our first game on the road against Western could be tough, given the problems we always have with their big man.

(01-01-2014 11:22 AM)DetroitRocket Wrote:  Coack K is making $340,000 this year (per Blade), but all of these numbers are fluid and extras can pump the number up considerably.

As good as this team has played in the preseason, I don't think we can expect them just to roll into places like Athens or Akron and easily grab wins. Our first game on the road against Western could be tough, given the problems we always have with their big man.

This year we can throw three guys at Whittington with a little different defense from each. Last year we had freshman Boothe and Matt Smith. This year Boothe is staying out of foul trouble much more and we replace him with another big body in Garber with Smith still around to help. David Brown is worrisome though, scoring in bunches.

(01-01-2014 03:56 AM)Campbell4President Wrote:  In the past, the MAC East fans have been upset that the MAC West teams hurt their RPIs but it looks like this year, they will be helped by playing a couple of the West teams. Here is where the RPIs currently sit:

39. Toledo
53. EMU
70. Ohio
127. Buffalo
137. Akron
140. Bowling Green
163. Kent State
173. NIU (Wow)
184. Miami
192. WMU
278. CMU
308. Ball State

Other notable RPIs:

2. Kansas
11. Ohio State
42. Cincinnati
43. Xavier
60. Dayton


Rockets SOS rank 210 out of 351. Kansas SOS wasn't hurt by playing the Rockets as their SOS is #2.

Will our RPI go down because of the MAC teams we play from here on out?

And I also know these a good chance the Rockets won't run the table, that's just too hard to do, especially with some of the road venues they play at. Plus, it's a long season, and real difficult to be highly motived for every game.
Go Rockets!!

rpi wont go down unless we start losing. our rpi is 39 w a sos of 210. the avg rpi of our mac sched is 150. so if we go 12-1 in the mac our rpi should improve a little from 39. the rockets are positioned for an at large if they dominate the mac at like 17-1 or 16-2. the way we played Kansas doesn't hurt. the committee now puts weight on eye test games where they actually go watch probably tourney teams to see them for seeding and bubble decisions. this team is on the radar and will compete w anyone who isn't dominant inside. teams like Kansas, Kentucky, ohio st will be tough for us. but a lot of those teams in the 5 or 6 seed area who we would likely match up with have a weakness. this team has a real shot of making the tourney, playing competively and possibly winning a game, maybe 2 or 3 if the brackets line up perfectly. gotta keep improving and stay healthy.

For those who haven't seen it, I like looking at RPI forecast. Yes its just a guess of the season ending RPI, and is extremely fluid, but I find it interesting. They use the Sagarin predictors to weight games then runs 10,000 simulations on the remaining games.

"rpiforecast Wrote:How does the RPI Forecast Work?
1. Update all of the wins and losses to date
2. Using Jeff Sagarin's "PREDICTOR", calculate the probabilities of winning for every remaining game
3. Draw random Wins and Losses based on these probabilities for every remaining game
4. Figure out the end of season RPI for every team based on the completed and simulated wins and losses
5. Sort the RPIs (numbers between 0 and 1) to get RPI ranks (counting numbers, 1, 2, 3, etc.)
6. Save the details from this one simulation
7. Repeat the simulation 10,000 times
8. Calculate the Expected RPI and Expected RPI Rank, etc., by using my 10,000 simulations

On average, he has Toledo finishing 13-5 (Tied for first with Ohio) in the MAC with an RPI of about 47. There's also a chart on each team's page showing where they finished in each simulation.

MAC Forecast ==> http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/MAC.html
Toledo forecast ==> http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Toledo.html

(01-01-2014 11:31 AM)H2Oville Rocket Wrote:  

(01-01-2014 11:22 AM)DetroitRocket Wrote:  Coack K is making $340,000 this year (per Blade), but all of these numbers are fluid and extras can pump the number up considerably.

As good as this team has played in the preseason, I don't think we can expect them just to roll into places like Athens or Akron and easily grab wins. Our first game on the road against Western could be tough, given the problems we always have with their big man.

This year we can throw three guys at Whittington with a little different defense from each. Last year we had freshman Boothe and Matt Smith. This year Boothe is staying out of foul trouble much more and we replace him with another big body in Garber with Smith still around to help. David Brown is worrisome though, scoring in bunches.

I would not be surprised to see Western use Whittington with another post player at the same time when they play us...

(01-01-2014 09:02 AM)ChicagoRocket Wrote:  

(01-01-2014 04:23 AM)Campbell4President Wrote:  BTW, while I'm thinking about it now, I'll pose the question for those on this board.

I know that the Rockets basically need to win the MAC to get to the NCAAs and any team between EMU to Akron, etc. can take that from Toledo at tournament time but still, there can not be a doubt among anyone at this point that Coach K can elevate this program to a point that at least I've never seen it. I posted last year when the Rockets were doing well that Coach K was basically coaching the last few years with both and then one arm tied behind his back and the progress and success he was was having was amazing. I don't think even Tom Izzo could have come in and turned the team around quicker and/or better. With that said and I know that since we are a football school first, this would never happen but how would you all feel if Toledo and AD MOB decided to make basketball a priority and do what was necessary to keep Coach K here? It is less expensive to pay a bball coach and staff than football and Coach K makes $280k per year I believe. Xavier's HC makes about $500k and Cincinnati's makes about $1.2M.

Again, I know that Toledo isn't going to dish out about a mill per year but if suddenly you heard that we were going to have Coach K here for 20 more years (he's 47) and the program was going to be elevated to an annual national name like Cincinnati for that time period but we were going to continue to tread the water in football like we

have since like 2005, would you all be upset or would you feel it is a good trade-off? I personally would be all on board. NIU can have football lol. (and I've always been a football first guy)

I would prefer to get rid of basketball completely and bring back wrestling!

Get rid of football and bring back men's track AND wrestling, add a women's program and become a hoops powerhouse.

(01-02-2014 02:09 AM)pono Wrote:  rpi wont go down unless we start losing. our rpi is 39 w a sos of 210. the avg rpi of our mac sched is 150. so if we go 12-1 in the mac our rpi should improve a little from 39. the rockets are positioned for an at large if they dominate the mac at like 17-1 or 16-2. the way we played Kansas doesn't hurt. the committee now puts weight on eye test games where they actually go watch probably tourney teams to see them for seeding and bubble decisions. this team is on the radar and will compete w anyone who isn't dominant inside. teams like Kansas, Kentucky, ohio st will be tough for us. but a lot of those teams in the 5 or 6 seed area who we would likely match up with have a weakness. this team has a real shot of making the tourney, playing competively and possibly winning a game, maybe 2 or 3 if the brackets line up perfectly. gotta keep improving and stay healthy.

Unfortunately for Toledo, and all of the MAC teams this year, I don't see an at-large bid being an option. Even if Toledo never lost a game again until the MACC that loss at the end would probably cost them. Remember two years ago when Murray State started out 23-0 and there was talk that if they lost one game tey might not earn an at large because of the perception of the their SOS? Luckily for them they won their tournament with only 1 loss on the season.

Look at Akron as an example, going into the MACC game last year there was zero talk of the Zips getting an at large bid and look at what they had accomplished up to that point-

- 25-6 overall record, 14-2 in conference.
- top 25 ranking.
- nation's longest winning streak for the year at 19 games.
- Ohio returned everyone from Sweet 16 team, went 14-2 in MAC play, both losses were to the Zips.
- Of 4 OOC losses, 2 were to ranked NCAA tournament teams. #16 Creighton and a 4pt OT loss to #15 Oklahoma State.

Even if Toledo was to finish the season with just 2 or 3 losses they will need at least one more MAC team to be nearly as dominant and then lose to that team in the MACC in a close game. And sadly, I still don't think that will be enough.

I would love nothing more that to see the MAC with multi bids but its going to take more than 1 or 2 teams being good, we need to get back to 5, 6, or 7 teams being really good at the same time. Toledo is an important piece of that puzzle- Toledo, Ball State, Miami, Kent State, Akron, and Ohio, and maybe Buffalo, those are the big dogs that need to all be strong at the same time.

but who knows, maybe Toledo and Ohio will go 17-1 and duke it out in Cleveland. good luck.

who ever said eliminate basketball I could get on board with that.

I have never seen what NCAA tournament play is like (atleast not with a Rocket men's team in the field) so I would never know what I wasn't missing

If Toledo won out until the MACC they would be 10th in the country going into the game, and most certainly be an at large. At 31-2 losing in the MACC.... Probably would get screwed with about an 8 or 9 seed but still!

Toledo can lose up to three or four and be in the talk of an at large. 6 losses isn't 3, and hence why Akron weren't in that talk.

If Toledo won out, but lost in the MACC...that would make their record 30-2.

If that doesn't earn at large bid....then there is a real problem with the current model.

(01-04-2014 03:41 PM)EA3 Wrote:  If Toledo won out, but lost in the MACC...that would make their record 30-2.

If that doesn't earn at large bid....then there is a real problem with the current model.

No doubt but the problem would be at the scheduling end. If UT/MAC cannot play mid-level major conference teams, they cannot beat them. Playing the top teams where all "victories" are moral ones, doesn't get the MAC an opportunity to show they earned 2 teams.

rockets would get in w 2 or 3 losses. 4 or 5 they have a shot, maybe the play in game. 6 or more w our sos will not do it. win conf tourney and we are good. the question will be if we go like 30-3 (we can hope) how do we get seeded. can remember a mac team higher than 10th seed. of course, an 11 or 12 is often better than a 7-10 cuz you can go on a run and avoid a top 2 seed on the way. most of the sweet 16 or higher runs by mid majors are teams seeded from 11-13. doubt we could get a 5 or 6 seed unless we go 31-2 and win the mac reg and conf tourney titles. even then we prob get an 8

when Murray State was 30-1 in 2012 with a win at #16 Memphis in December they ended up a 6 seed.

(01-04-2014 09:01 PM)pono Wrote:  rockets would get in w 2 or 3 losses. 4 or 5 they have a shot, maybe the play in game. 6 or more w our sos will not do it. win conf tourney and we are good. the question will be if we go like 30-3 (we can hope) how do we get seeded. can remember a mac team higher than 10th seed. of course, an 11 or 12 is often better than a 7-10 cuz you can go on a run and avoid a top 2 seed on the way. most of the sweet 16 or higher runs by mid majors are teams seeded from 11-13. doubt we could get a 5 or 6 seed unless we go 31-2 and win the mac reg and conf tourney titles. even then we prob get an 8

The first Ball St team that Majerus got into the tournament was either an 8 or 9 seed, they won their first round game, but lost in the second round to the #1 seed. Ball St's team then next year was a 12 seed, beat both the #5 & #4 seeds, before losing to #1 seed UNLV in the Sweet Sixteen.