(12-30-2013 07:29 PM)Atbjmu09 Wrote:  JMU (2012)
Number of applicants: 23,583 (2nd in VA)
Freshman Class: 4,000
Percent Student Body out of state: 29%

ODU (2012)
Number of applicants: 10,315
Freshman class: 2,800
Percent of student body out of state: 7%

And ODU definitely delivers their market and is a really popular school in Virginia.

Those high application numbers are impressive. But with a little more data, we can show that JMU is just like ODU, a safety school.

According to USN&WR, JMU has an acceptance rate of 63.5%. That means out of 14,975 students who got accepted into JMU, only 4,000 enrolled. Yikes! Only one out of four students accepted into JMU actually decide to attend.

And how does the out-of-state enrollment percentage prove JMU is more popular in Virginia? You do realize that JMU's number is higher, right? Meaning more Virginia residents attend ODU than JMU. Additionally, ODU's undergrad enrollment outnumbers JMU's by 1,505.

Sun Belt just has to be patient. Pretty soon JMU will realize that neither the MAC nor CUSA wants them. The MAC is a very stable conference that is fine staying where they are. CUSA is full and even if they wanted 16 schools there are better options out there. JMU might look down at the SBC but how far behind ODU do they really want to fall before they take whatever offer is given to them? Depends on what vision the new coach has for the program.

(12-30-2013 08:27 PM)ODUDrunkard13 Wrote:  

(12-30-2013 07:29 PM)Atbjmu09 Wrote:  JMU (2012)
Number of applicants: 23,583 (2nd in VA)
Freshman Class: 4,000
Percent Student Body out of state: 29%

ODU (2012)
Number of applicants: 10,315
Freshman class: 2,800
Percent of student body out of state: 7%

And ODU definitely delivers their market and is a really popular school in Virginia.

Those high application numbers are impressive. But with a little more data, we can show that JMU is just like ODU, a safety school.

According to USN&WR, JMU has an acceptance rate of 63.5%. That means out of 14,975 students who got accepted into JMU, only 4,000 enrolled. Yikes! Only one out of four students accepted into JMU actually decide to attend.

And how does the out-of-state enrollment percentage prove JMU is more popular in Virginia? You do realize that JMU's number is higher, right? Meaning more Virginia residents attend ODU than JMU. Additionally, ODU's undergrad enrollment outnumbers JMU's by 1,505.

You have a higher total enrollment because you are a commuter school. The out of state enrollment shows that we are more well known and respected out of state. And we are completely different academic institutions. When students who apply to JMU and choose not to go, it's because they have gotten into an elite academic institution like UVA or W&M. ODU is the safety school of the schools that are the safety schools to JMU.

(12-30-2013 06:41 PM)mturn017 Wrote:  

(12-30-2013 04:07 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  The only addition that "brings the D.C. market" is the Redskins. And they're going to need a few years to get their football program up to C-USA standards.

Nailed it!

Yep. Nothing but net.

(12-30-2013 08:51 PM)Atbjmu09 Wrote:  You have a higher total enrollment because you are a commuter school. The out of state enrollment shows that we are more well known and respected out of state. And we are completely different academic institutions. When students who apply to JMU and choose not to go, it's because they have gotten into an elite academic institution like UVA or W&M. ODU is the safety school of the schools that are the safety schools to JMU.

We are completely different academic institutions. Agreed. But let me get this straight. When you use enrollment numbers, it shows superiority. When an ODU alum uses enrollment numbers, it doesn't mean anything. Got it.

(12-29-2013 08:55 PM)ECUgradstudent Wrote:  

(12-29-2013 08:48 PM)laxtonto Wrote:  then who is the 16th? TxState would be my choice, but not sure that it wont be ULL or Ark St

Is Ark State in the Memphis tv market?

Arkansas State is the prime example of how silly TV markets are. None of the counties due south and east of Jonesboro and Craighead County (where AState is located) are in the Jonesboro market. The people in Mississippi County and Poinsett County mostly work and shop in Jonesboro (and Jonesboro people buy package liquor in Poinsett County) but they are in the Memphis TV market despite most being unable to view Memphis TV with an antenna and most can get Jonesboro with rabbit ears, Memphis TV doesn't cover anything in those counties unless its a really big story. Likewise Jackson county is in the Little Rock TV market but in parts of Jackson county you can literally walk outside and see the Jonesboro stations transmitter and can't get Little Rock stations with an antenna.

There are 5 counties in the Little Rock market where the most watched TV station is from Jonesboro and another three where local cable carries Jonesboro TV. There are another four counties in the Memphis market where Jonesboro TV is most watched.

If you ignore markets and look at TV audience for games against other G5 schools the most watched school from among the Sun Belt and MAC is Northern Illinois by a fair margin. Arkansas State just edges Bowling Green, and then #4 and #5 with pretty similar numbers are Louisiana Lafayette and Ball State.

I tried to deal with C-USA but the FS1 numbers are mostly bad and with no other G5 regularly there you can't do an apples to apples (example FIU-FAU 2012 drew around 220K viewers on ESPNU and 46k on FS1 in 2013). About the only conclusion I drew from the FS1 numbers was that the most watched CUSA games tended to involve ECU, Tulsa, and Tulane.

(12-30-2013 08:35 PM)Eagleditka Wrote:  Sun Belt just has to be patient. Pretty soon JMU will realize that neither the MAC nor CUSA wants them. The MAC is a very stable conference that is fine staying where they are. CUSA is full and even if they wanted 16 schools there are better options out there. JMU might look down at the SBC but how far behind ODU do they really want to fall before they take whatever offer is given to them? Depends on what vision the new coach has for the program.

Sun Belt can be patient because we have no reason to not be. Even if JMU was to choose to not come to the SBC, that would simply mean that a Missouri State or EKU would.

We need one add. Frankly, I'd almost rather find the best basketball school with an FBS football program within the geographic area and add that.

Either way, its not like the league desperately needs a 12th by 2015.

(12-30-2013 09:24 PM)ODUDrunkard13 Wrote:  

(12-30-2013 08:51 PM)Atbjmu09 Wrote:  You have a higher total enrollment because you are a commuter school. The out of state enrollment shows that we are more well known and respected out of state. And we are completely different academic institutions. When students who apply to JMU and choose not to go, it's because they have gotten into an elite academic institution like UVA or W&M. ODU is the safety school of the schools that are the safety schools to JMU.

We are completely different academic institutions. Agreed. But let me get this straight. When you use enrollment numbers, it shows superiority. When an ODU alum uses enrollment numbers, it doesn't mean anything. Got it.

This. There is 0% that I'd apply to JMU. Not because of their academic reputation, but because of the programs they offer. If a student wants to major in engineering or computer science, you will find them no where near JMU, they just don't support those programs. ODU's got some of the best Engineering and CS programs in the state.

Isn't it fun to have the exact same argument every single time JMU and CUSA get mentioned in the same sentence?

A few years ago JMU coaches were telling recruits they were going to the Big East. Villanova was doing the same thing. It's nothing to get excited about.

(12-29-2013 11:51 PM)PirateTreasureNC Wrote:  16 makes some things work better BUT....

CUSA to go to 16 has the options of:

MAC
SBC
1aa

Schools only make lateral moves for better fit, and since there are no MAC schools that would fit CUSAv3.0 better than that MAC, that can be narrowed down to SBC & an FCS school.

(12-31-2013 12:10 AM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(12-30-2013 08:35 PM)Eagleditka Wrote:  Sun Belt just has to be patient. Pretty soon JMU will realize that neither the MAC nor CUSA wants them. The MAC is a very stable conference that is fine staying where they are. CUSA is full and even if they wanted 16 schools there are better options out there. JMU might look down at the SBC but how far behind ODU do they really want to fall before they take whatever offer is given to them? Depends on what vision the new coach has for the program.

Sun Belt can be patient because we have no reason to not be. Even if JMU was to choose to not come to the SBC, that would simply mean that a Missouri State or EKU would.

We need one add. Frankly, I'd almost rather find the best basketball school with an FBS football program within the geographic area and add that.

Either way, its not like the league desperately needs a 12th by 2015.

That's good thinking.

(12-31-2013 12:53 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(12-29-2013 11:51 PM)PirateTreasureNC Wrote:  16 makes some things work better BUT....

CUSA to go to 16 has the options of:

MAC
SBC
1aa

Schools only make lateral moves for better fit, and since there are no MAC schools that would fit CUSAv3.0 better than that MAC, that can be narrowed down to SBC & an FCS school.

CUSA to its credit is creeping slowly northward with Western Kentucky and Old Dominion. They secured the border states over the MAC, the first step to an all out MAC invasion.

The MAC offers 23 sports, a few more than CUSA which is a problem for any MAC school considering moving to CUSA, not having homes for Olympic Sports. NIU, Ohio and Buffalo have wrestling programs to find placement if they were to make a switch.

As a regional league the MAC can offer tournaments at a neutral site such as the MAC Championship in Detroit and basketball tourney in Cleveland. If you start dealing with a league like CUSA or the AAC then the basketball tourney is hosted on somebodies home court.

Once you start digging into the details CUSA doesn't sound like that good of a conference or friendly for the student athlete. More travel equates to more missed class time.

(12-31-2013 02:17 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(12-31-2013 12:53 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(12-29-2013 11:51 PM)PirateTreasureNC Wrote:  16 makes some things work better BUT....

CUSA to go to 16 has the options of:

MAC
SBC
1aa

Schools only make lateral moves for better fit, and since there are no MAC schools that would fit CUSAv3.0 better than that MAC, that can be narrowed down to SBC & an FCS school.

CUSA to its credit is creeping slowly northward with Western Kentucky and Old Dominion. They secured the border states over the MAC, the first step to an all out MAC invasion.

The MAC offers 23 sports, a few more than CUSA which is a problem for any MAC school considering moving to CUSA, not having homes for Olympic Sports. NIU, Ohio and Buffalo have wrestling programs to find placement if they were to make a switch.

As a regional league the MAC can offer tournaments at a neutral site such as the MAC Championship in Detroit and basketball tourney in Cleveland. If you start dealing with a league like CUSA or the AAC then the basketball tourney is hosted on somebodies home court.

Once you start digging into the details CUSA doesn't sound like that good of a conference or friendly for the student athlete. More travel equates to more missed class time.

If I were the G5 one of the things I would push for at the January NCAA meetings is a reform of the rule governing divisional play in conferences. If you could get pod play approved (which probably would have little opposition in FBS) you could create larger conferences that still maintained regional travel friendly pods. If you cold get an internal conference playoff included with pod play---large national G5 conferences could be created.

The reason this is interesting is that these large national G5 conferences could conceivably house almost every existing G5 team in just 2 conferences. This could spur the creation of an 8-12 team playoff with every conference being AQ. The money commanded by massive G5 super conferences with an internal playoff might be similar to what a normal P5 conference makes (though it would be split more ways). However, even if each G5 team made half of what the P5 schools earned--they would enjoy lower travel costs due to the pod play, would enjoy national coverage, and would finally have a direct (though crowded) path to a playoff.

CUSA is not taking anyone unless someone leaves. They will stay at 14 after the current shuffle is complete. If JMU does not want to go to the Sunbelt then the MAC is right next door and has an opening available to get to 14 for all sports or FB only to match UMass. That conference would provide an ideal situation for them to move up and have success right away with low travel expenses to boot.

(12-31-2013 12:48 AM)DaBigBlue Wrote:  A few years ago JMU coaches were telling recruits they were going to the Big East. Villanova was doing the same thing. It's nothing to get excited about.

It means nothing in terms of actionable intelligence about a conference destination.

It may mean something if you add to the growing list of indications that JMU is going to move up. I'm employed by a large organization and JMU is giving off all the signs large organizations give when they are paving the way for a major change.

Whether that's to the CUSA, SBC, or MAC, I don't know.

I think CUSA needs to focus on becoming a tighter regional conference than being spread out all over the place.

(12-31-2013 11:02 AM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  I think CUSA needs to focus on becoming a tighter regional conference than being spread out all over the place.

They really cant do that as they are spread all over the place. What they can do--and have, is to further expand membership within the existing footprint to make the divisions more regional with more reasonable travel. The larger divisions not only make for even more regional travel, but it also cut out far away destinations by lowering the number of crossover games.

Its actually feasible for CUSA to go to 18--thus completely eliminating cross divisional play in football. If the conference then employed a heavy use of divisional play only for non-revenue sports, that's about as close to being "tighter and more regional" as CUSA could possibly get.

(12-31-2013 11:16 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(12-31-2013 11:02 AM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  I think CUSA needs to focus on becoming a tighter regional conference than being spread out all over the place.

They really cant do that as they are spread all over the place. What they can do--and have, is to further expand membership within the existing footprint to make the divisions more regional with more reasonable travel. The larger divisions not only make for even more regional travel, but it also cut out far away destinations by lowering the number of crossover games.

Its actually feasible for CUSA to go to 18--thus completely eliminating cross divisional play in football. If the conference then employed a heavy use of divisional play only for non-revenue sports, that's about as close to being "tighter and more regional" as CUSA could possibly get.

I agree. For NonBCS conferences, keeping travel costs down is a key. Having Marshall, ODU, JMU, and Charlotte grouped together not only lowers their travel costs but allows their fans to see a few away games. Play 7 division games and 2 crossover games meaning only 1 far away travel game out of 9 CUSA games. Keep Olympic sports mostly within division play.

An alternative, probably for football only, is four quadrants of 4 teams, with a 4 team playoff for the conference championship. This would be for additional publicity but probably not a great revenue producer.

I have not been on ODU's campus but everything I have read indicates this was a top notch quality add for CUSA. CUSA has been very successful in its expansion by going after IA schools.

My best friend's son attended and graduated from JMU. I have been on JMU's campus four times, going with my friend to visit his son. I can assure you that JMU would be a quality add for CUSA similar to ODU and Charlotte.

I think I got the CUSA/East division structure wrong, including WKU. It should probably be like this instead:

CUSA/EAST:
ODU/JMU
Marshall/Charlotte
FIU/FAU
UAB/MTU

CUSA/WEST:
WKU/Missouri State
USM/La Tech
Rice/UNT
UTEP/UTSA

(12-31-2013 11:44 AM)Tallgrass Wrote:  An alternative, probably for football only, is four quadrants of 4 teams, with a 4 team playoff for the conference championship. This would be for additional publicity but probably not a great revenue producer.

But then you need a version of the NCAA that allows a two game playoff calender, or a selection for a CCG without playing a division round robin (eg, play cross-group by group ranking in final week of regular season, with 1v1 to qualify for CCG) ... the current D1 doesn't seem likely to go for that, even less the current D1 without the P5 conferences. And the FBS-only division would require the consensus of P5 conference to support it, and there's no clear reason they should allow it.

Two regionally coherent divisions of eight with an eight game conference schedule is quite like two 60s-80s era eight school conference with a one game scheduling agreement, except for the two "conference" champions then play for the championship of the conglomerate.

The fly in the ointment is the governance problems if the two regionally coherent divisions develop differences of opinion as to where to take the conglomerate.