Gents, as promised, here's Part I of my Liberty Bowl preview at FWTCT. I appreciate the info you guys had, it was really helpful. I'm aiming to have Part 2: The Defenses up Friday night. I'll be back and drop another link for you guys. Look forward to talking a little football with you.

Looks like you did your homework. I appreciate your perspective on the game. Can't fault you for giving the tiebreaker to your dogs based on playing against SEC defenses. For an apples to apples comparison, you could look at our games against A&M. Rice put up 509 yards; MSU put up 556. Considering that we threw 2 picks and you guys threw 1, that's pretty darn close...

The biggest question to me is whether the Bulldogs will be able to move the ball against our D. I expect Rice to put up some points, despite your formidable defense. Boswell's freakish leg gives us a leg up (har har har) if this becomes a low-scoring field position type game, I think. If State manages to establish their offense, though, we're going to need our passing game to come through for us, which is by no means guaranteed.

We're going to need our passing game to come through regardless; otherwise our running game is going to get stuffed (especially with the very substantial size advantage MSU has in the trenches). The good news on that front is that McHargue usually comes out hot early (it's that 2Q onward that he has struggled), and at least under Reagan, we usually used the pass to set up the run early (in our first 15+ scripted plays). My only hope is that with Reagan gone, we stick with the short passes beyond that point, and game plan a more balanced attack throughout (as we did against Marshall).

BTW, overall, a fair and balanced preview. However, I do think the stats provide a bit of a misleading perception of our passing offense. Yes, McHargue has been inconsistent and has a tendency to make a couple bad decisions each game...and, yes, our wide outs have sufferred from a case of the "droppies" on occassion....BUT our passing stats are ranked so low primarily due to two reasons: (1) the potency and effectiveness of our running game, and (2) the very significant impact of the Meerkat on time of possession. The reality is that we have 3 WRs and a slot back (formerly Peterson and now Eddington) who are all very capable, and when Jordan Taylor is focused and energized (e.g., last year vs. Air Force; this year vs. A&M and Marshall) he's virtually unstoppable given his size and speed. Aside from the consistency issue, our OC has typically gone away from the passing game in the 2nd half of games; deploying it only on obvious passing downs (which makes things that much more difficult on our QB and OL).

Interesting that you give the passing game edge to MSU, even though the YPP are about the same and Rice has 5 more TDs passing, 20-15. Seems more like a push.

Turner Petersen is injured, but otherwise a very good and fair write up

(12-27-2013 12:13 AM)Klobasnek Wrote:  Looks like you did your homework. I appreciate your perspective on the game. Can't fault you for giving the tiebreaker to your dogs based on playing against SEC defenses. For an apples to apples comparison, you could look at our games against A&M. Rice put up 509 yards; MSU put up 556. Considering that we threw 2 picks and you guys threw 1, that's pretty darn close...

The biggest question to me is whether the Bulldogs will be able to move the ball against our D. I expect Rice to put up some points, despite your formidable defense. Boswell's freakish leg gives us a leg up (har har har) if this becomes a low-scoring field position type game, I think. If State manages to establish their offense, though, we're going to need our passing game to come through for us, which is by no means guaranteed.

I see this game as a strength vs strength type of game. Y'all run the ball as well as anyone in the country, but we're very good at stuffing the run. As is the case in most football games, the outcome will likely be determined by the battle in the trenches.

Totally agree that if it's a low scoring, field position type of game you guys have the edge. My personal opinion is that we should just stop kicking field goals and always go for it on 4th down inside the 40. Although Sobiesk did make a huge pressure kick to tie up the Egg Bowl in our last game. Problem is, he followed that up with a miss as time expired that would have won it.

My only question is, how have y'all played from behind this year? If you shy away from the pass later on in the game, and you generally control the clock, I would assume this means you are usually playing with a lead and running the ball on most snaps in the second half. Have you had to come from behind in any games this year, and of your 3 losses, did the opposing teams take the lead early, or was it after your OC went "vanilla" in his play calling? If State is able to get the lead early on and you have to take chances down field in the passing game, would you feel comfortable in doing so?

(12-27-2013 09:18 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  We're going to need our passing game to come through regardless; otherwise our running game is going to get stuffed (especially with the very substantial size advantage MSU has in the trenches). The good news on that front is that McHargue usually comes out hot early (it's that 2Q onward that he has struggled), and at least under Reagan, we usually used the pass to set up the run early (in our first 15+ scripted plays). My only hope is that with Reagan gone, we stick with the short passes beyond that point, and game plan a more balanced attack throughout (as we did against Marshall).

BTW, overall, a fair and balanced preview. However, I do think the stats provide a bit of a misleading perception of our passing offense. Yes, McHargue has been inconsistent and has a tendency to make a couple bad decisions each game...and, yes, our wide outs have sufferred from a case of the "droppies" on occassion....BUT our passing stats are ranked so low primarily due to two reasons: (1) the potency and effectiveness of our running game, and (2) the very significant impact of the Meerkat on time of possession. The reality is that we have 3 WRs and a slot back (formerly Peterson and now Eddington) who are all very capable, and when Jordan Taylor is focused and energized (e.g., last year vs. Air Force; this year vs. A&M and Marshall) he's virtually unstoppable given his size and speed. Aside from the consistency issue, our OC has typically gone away from the passing game in the 2nd half of games; deploying it only on obvious passing downs (which makes things that much more difficult on our QB and OL).

Unless I'm mistaken, I believe I made the point that you don't pass much for the reason you pointed out: your rush offense is VERY good. Why throw when you're running it down everyone's throat? The fastest way to wear down and demoralize opposing defenses is by running the ball effectively. I'm really interested to see how it all plays out, as I expect our front 7 to do a good job stopping the run and forcing you to pass. If we don't do that, it may be a long day for my Dawgs.

(12-27-2013 10:48 AM)pdub0351 Wrote:  My only question is, how have y'all played from behind this year? If you shy away from the pass later on in the game, and you generally control the clock, I would assume this means you are usually playing with a lead and running the ball on most snaps in the second half. Have you had to come from behind in any games this year, and of your 3 losses, did the opposing teams take the lead early, or was it after your OC went "vanilla" in his play calling? If State is able to get the lead early on and you have to take chances down field in the passing game, would you feel comfortable in doing so?

We had the early (into mid-2Q) lead in all 3 losses this year (vs. A&M, Houston and North Texas). We not only went ultra conservative after the first 2 - 3 offensive series, but in each of those games McHargue made a couple bad decisions that resulted in interceptions (usually on 3rd and long).

So long as McHargue is not limitted to passing in obvious passing downs, I do have confidence in our passing game. As mentioned, our problem has been not only that we tend to abandon the passing game on early downs after the 1Q, but when we do pass (even on 3rd and less than 5 yards) we invariably go for the 20+ yard pass play downfield, which is not McHargue's strength. Whether our new and interim OC will change that, one can only hope. I think we'd be much more effective-- especially with our strong running game preoccupying the focus of the safeties and LBs-- if we worked the short and intermediate routes across the middle of the field (e.g., slants to WRs, and seam passes to TE).

(12-27-2013 10:48 AM)pdub0351 Wrote:  My only question is, how have y'all played from behind this year? If you shy away from the pass later on in the game, and you generally control the clock, I would assume this means you are usually playing with a lead and running the ball on most snaps in the second half. Have you had to come from behind in any games this year, and of your 3 losses, did the opposing teams take the lead early, or was it after your OC went "vanilla" in his play calling? If State is able to get the lead early on and you have to take chances down field in the passing game, would you feel comfortable in doing so?

We won each of our last 2 games in OT. I'm very comfortable with us having to take chances throwing the ball late, so long as Dak is in the game. I'm big on Williams, but he's a true freshman and isn't quite ready for that just yet. Of course, he may have progressed enough for that to have changed since he got all the #2 reps in bowl practice with Russell being done with rotator cuff surgery.

(12-27-2013 04:36 PM)War Machine Dawg Wrote:  

(12-27-2013 10:48 AM)pdub0351 Wrote:  My only question is, how have y'all played from behind this year? If you shy away from the pass later on in the game, and you generally control the clock, I would assume this means you are usually playing with a lead and running the ball on most snaps in the second half. Have you had to come from behind in any games this year, and of your 3 losses, did the opposing teams take the lead early, or was it after your OC went "vanilla" in his play calling? If State is able to get the lead early on and you have to take chances down field in the passing game, would you feel comfortable in doing so?

We won each of our last 2 games in OT. I'm very comfortable with us having to take chances throwing the ball late, so long as Dak is in the game. I'm big on Williams, but he's a true freshman and isn't quite ready for that just yet. Of course, he may have progressed enough for that to have changed since he got all the #2 reps in bowl practice with Russell being done with rotator cuff surgery.

Hey War Machine, I'm a Dawg. I know all about Daktion. Lol. I was asking these Hooters.

(12-27-2013 05:30 PM)pdub0351 Wrote:  

(12-27-2013 04:36 PM)War Machine Dawg Wrote:  

(12-27-2013 10:48 AM)pdub0351 Wrote:  My only question is, how have y'all played from behind this year? If you shy away from the pass later on in the game, and you generally control the clock, I would assume this means you are usually playing with a lead and running the ball on most snaps in the second half. Have you had to come from behind in any games this year, and of your 3 losses, did the opposing teams take the lead early, or was it after your OC went "vanilla" in his play calling? If State is able to get the lead early on and you have to take chances down field in the passing game, would you feel comfortable in doing so?

We won each of our last 2 games in OT. I'm very comfortable with us having to take chances throwing the ball late, so long as Dak is in the game. I'm big on Williams, but he's a true freshman and isn't quite ready for that just yet. Of course, he may have progressed enough for that to have changed since he got all the #2 reps in bowl practice with Russell being done with rotator cuff surgery.

Hey War Machine, I'm a Dawg. I know all about Daktion. Lol. I was asking these Hooters.

I'd say that should be your plan.

Scored 12 in the 4th to win by 4...FAU
Scored 10 in the 4th to win by 9... Kansas

Of course, we only had 3 losses... one to N.Tex where turnovers did us in, and then against both UH and A&M where we scored early and late, but not in the middle... almost pulling off the come-from-behind late against UH including a successful 'rabona' onside kick. You can argue that A&M wasn't a comeback, but UH certainly was... AND we won two games in OT.

As we've said... our nature has been to be well prepared going into the game and making poor offensive adjustments at the half. This was more true early in the year, and our OC is gone, so it may not continue. To me, preparation is on the staff, but adjustments is on the coordinators

I think the early indicators for us will be our offensive line play and unpredictable/innovative/deceptive play calling.

If McH hits a few quick passes early ... short, medium and longish ... that could temper the MSU pass rush and give our OL a better chance of making the blocks needed to open up our running game against the 'Dogs' "nasty" front 7. Balanced and unpredictable play calling and flawless execution will make the game fun to watch for Owl fans.

But if we start out predictably -- say 1) Ross into the middle, then 2) swing pass, then 3) longer pass -- we're increasing our chances of opening with a 3-and-out. (Unless, of course, all three of those plays are successful. :-) )

(12-26-2013 11:05 PM)War Machine Dawg Wrote:  Gents, as promised, here's Part I of my Liberty Bowl preview at FWTCT. I appreciate the info you guys had, it was really helpful. I'm aiming to have Part 2: The Defenses up Friday night. I'll be back and drop another link for you guys. Look forward to talking a little football with you.

WMD, I am from Cincy, and I can assure you that MSU isn't dead last in FG kicking. UC is 6 for 15 this year. I don't know about any others, but I am very familiar with the BearKittens.

(12-28-2013 11:20 AM)Almadenmike Wrote:  I think the early indicators for us will be our offensive line play and unpredictable/innovative/deceptive play calling.

If McH hits a few quick passes early ... short, medium and longish ... that could temper the MSU pass rush and give our OL a better chance of making the blocks needed to open up our running game against the 'Dogs' "nasty" front 7. Balanced and unpredictable play calling and flawless execution will make the game fun to watch for Owl fans.

But if we start out predictably -- say 1) Ross into the middle, then 2) swing pass, then 3) longer pass -- we're increasing our chances of opening with a 3-and-out. (Unless, of course, all three of those plays are successful. :-) )

Under Reagan we would invariably open the game with aggressive play-calling on offense. The problem has been after the first 2 - 3 series of the game. WE quite often opened up with multiple bubble passes on 1st down the first series or two, only to abandon such passes the remainder of the game.