To determine whether a 6 bowl system is going to be enough to serve all the deserving teams, I'm taking the results of the Harris Poll from 2005 to show who would be in and who would be out.

The Harris Poll is probably the most accurate comparator to how the selection committee will rate teams because that poll was nothing but a super sized selection committee to begin with. In determining who is In and Out I'm taking the Top 12 assuming all of the autobids are taking care off.

I'm also using future P5/G5 lineups in this analysis.

2013
In:
1. Florida State
2. Auburn
3. Alabama
4. Michigan State
5. Stanford
6. Baylor
7. Ohio State
8. South Carolina
9. Missouri
10. Oklahoma
11. Clemson
15. UCF

Out:
12. Oregon (10-2)
13. Oklahoma State (10-2)
16. Louisville (11-1)

2012
In:
1. Notre Dame
2. Alabama
3. Oregon
4. Florida
5. Georgia
6. Kansas State
7. Stanford
8. LSU
9. Texas A&M
12. Florida State
15. Boise State
18. Nebraska

Out:
10. South Carolina (10-2)
11. Oklahoma (10-2)
13. Clemson (10-2)
19. Louisville (10-2)

2011
In:
1. LSU
2. Alabama
3. Oklahoma State
4. Stanford
5. Oregon
6. Boise State
7. Arkansas
8. Wisconsin
9. South Carolina
10. Kansas State
11. Virginia Tech
12. Michigan

Out:
15. TCU (10-2)

2010
In:
1. Auburn
2. Oregon
3. TCU
4. Wisconsin
5. Stanford
6. Ohio State
7. Michigan State
8. Arkansas
9. Oklahoma
10. Boise State
11. LSU
12. Virginia Tech

Out:
13. Missouri (10-2)
15. Oklahoma State (10-2)
19. Utah (10-2)

2009
In:
1. Florida
2. Texas
3. Alabama
4. TCU
5. Cincinnati
6. Boise State
7. Ohio Sate
8. Oregon
9. Penn State
10. Iowa
11. Georgia Tech
12. Virginia Tech

Out:
15. Pittsburgh (9-2)

2008
In:
1. Alabama
2. Florida
3. Texas
4. Oklahoma
5. USC
6. Penn State
7. Utah
8. Texas Tech
9. Boise State
10. Ohio State
11. Ball State
16. Georgia Tech

Out:
12. TCU (10-2)

2007
In:
1. Ohio State
2. LSU
3. Oklahoma
4. Georgia
5. USC
6. Virginia Tech
7. Missouri
8. Kansas
9. West Virginia
10. Hawaii
11. Florida State
12. Arizona State

Out:

2006
In:
1. Ohio State
2. Florida
3. Michigan
4. LSU
5. Louisville
6. Wisconsin
7. USC
8. Oklahoma
9. Boise State
10. Auburn
10. Notre Dame
12. West Virginia

Out:
14. Wake Forest (10-2)
15. Virginia Tech (10-2)
16. Rutgers (10-2)
24. TCU (10-2)

2005
In:
1. USC
2. Texas
3. Penn State
4. Ohio State
5. Notre Dame
6. Oregon
7. Auburn
8. Georiga
9. Miami FL
10. LSU
11. Virginia Tech
27. Fresno State

Out:
12. West Virginia (9-1)
13. Alabama (9-2)
14. TCU (10-1)
15. Texas Tech (9-2)
16. Louisville (9-2)
17. UCLA (9-1)

A few notes from the data:

-Only an average of 2.13 schools with at least 10 wins and no more than 2 losses would be out of a CFP bowl going back on the last 8 years of historical data. This a smaller amount than what I would have guessed.

-The number of 2 loss or less teams in power conferences will probably go down from where its been with all the consolidation (realignment) that has gone on the past 3 years.

-In 5 of the last 8 seasons, there has been 1 or less programs with a 10-2 record potentially left out. Therefore to even add a 7th CFP bowl will in most years require letting in an undeserving 3 loss power conference team.

-Adding a 7th CFP game is going to be a stretch. Adding an 8th CFP bowl was only justified in 2 of the years (barely). Unless the CFP wants to guarantee 2 G5 spots in the system to make an expansion more fair.

-The current CFP model has 2 semifinal games and 4 access bowls every year. To move to an 8 team playoff there has to be 2 semifinal games, 4 quarter final games and at least 2 more access bowls. With 3/4 of the bowls hosting a playoff game every year that means that the Rose Bowl would be in jeopardy of not having a traditional matchup 75% of the time.

Then there is a secondary issue of how to schedule a 3 weekend playoff and getting a fanbase to travel for semifinals getting into mid January.

-Odds are the 6 bowl/6 year system will continue well into the future. Moving to an 8 bowl/8 year system will require moving to an 8 team playoff to financially justify the additional games. There is going to be a lot of pushback to the idea because of too many games and 8 years too long of a cycle. TV projections in the future may declare an 8 team playoff non-feasible.

In 2011 it would have been Clemson instead of VT since we were the ACC Champs and would have secured the auto-bid.

In 2006 Wake would have been in because they were ACC Champs.

(12-18-2013 05:01 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  In 2011 it would have been Clemson instead of VT since we were the ACC Champs and would have secured the auto-bid.

In 2006 Wake would have been in because they were ACC Champs.

That seems to be the big flaw in the OP. Not recognizing conference champions that would get the auto-bid over higher ranked teams. Unfortunately teams like 2012 Wisconsin would be in with a 8-5 record over Nebraska.

EDIT: I just realized that Nebraska and Wiscy would be in the same division in this pretend scenario, in which case Neb would not have played Wiscy in the Big Ten CCG. So it does make sense to take Neb in 2012 because all you know is Neb was the higher ranked team.

But it is confusing because TCU would not get the auto-bid in 2011 over Boise because this pretend scenario would have TCU in the Big 12 so I guess Boise would have been the G5 rep in 2011.

(12-18-2013 05:38 PM)goofus Wrote:  

(12-18-2013 05:01 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  In 2011 it would have been Clemson instead of VT since we were the ACC Champs and would have secured the auto-bid.

In 2006 Wake would have been in because they were ACC Champs.

That seems to be the big flaw in the OP. Not recognizing conference champions that would get the auto-bid over higher ranked teams. Unfortunately teams like 2012 Wisconsin would be in with a 8-5 record over Nebraska.

I recognize that conference champs would have the autobid. I just didn't take my research beyond the Harris Poll and into the standings of each year (at this point at least).