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Jerry Palm's (Early) Latest Projection
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KevMo4UAB Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Jerry Palm's (Early) Latest Projection
Southern Miss lost to Western Kentucky, 65-68.

LSU beat Texas Tech on the road, 71-69.

Tulsa beat Grand Canyon, 66-65.

Both Old Dominion and UTSA lost home games to .500 or less teams.

Temple is 4-5.

Rutgers is 5-7.
(This post was last modified: 12-19-2013 01:10 AM by KevMo4UAB.)
12-19-2013 01:05 AM
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hooverblazer Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Jerry Palm's (Early) Latest Projection
(12-18-2013 04:51 PM)UABFRENCHY Wrote:  From live rpi (we dont have much marge for error )
26-2 34.0 no more lost for the rest of the year = we are in
25-3 36.8 lost to lsu = we are in
24-4 40.2 lost to lsu and @ southern miss = maybe
23-5 51.2 lost to lsu and @ southern miss @ charlotte = we are not

Even if we finished regular season 23-5, we'd be 14-2 in conference which would probably mean we won the regular season title. Then if we won a couple games in the conference tourny and lost in the champsionship game we'd be 25-5 with an RPI in the 40s which I think would get us in.
12-19-2013 11:46 AM
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UABFRENCHY Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Jerry Palm's (Early) Latest Projection
(12-19-2013 11:46 AM)hooverblazer Wrote:  
(12-18-2013 04:51 PM)UABFRENCHY Wrote:  From live rpi (we dont have much marge for error )
26-2 34.0 no more lost for the rest of the year = we are in
25-3 36.8 lost to lsu = we are in
24-4 40.2 lost to lsu and @ southern miss = maybe
23-5 51.2 lost to lsu and @ southern miss @ charlotte = we are not

Even if we finished regular season 23-5, we'd be 14-2 in conference which would probably mean we won the regular season title. Then if we won a couple games in the conference tourny and lost in the champsionship game we'd be 25-5 with an RPI in the 40s which I think would get us in.

agree with that
We are walking on this ice but that is what make bb season so fun to watch :)
12-19-2013 11:54 AM
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Dracarys Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Jerry Palm's (Early) Latest Projection
(12-19-2013 11:54 AM)UABFRENCHY Wrote:  
(12-19-2013 11:46 AM)hooverblazer Wrote:  
(12-18-2013 04:51 PM)UABFRENCHY Wrote:  From live rpi (we dont have much marge for error )
26-2 34.0 no more lost for the rest of the year = we are in
25-3 36.8 lost to lsu = we are in
24-4 40.2 lost to lsu and @ southern miss = maybe
23-5 51.2 lost to lsu and @ southern miss @ charlotte = we are not

Even if we finished regular season 23-5, we'd be 14-2 in conference which would probably mean we won the regular season title. Then if we won a couple games in the conference tourny and lost in the champsionship game we'd be 25-5 with an RPI in the 40s which I think would get us in.

agree with that
We are walking on this ice but that is what make bb season so fun to watch :)

+1 It is exciting just have these threads to read. Even if MB doesn't think our RPI is important. 05-stirthepot
12-19-2013 12:08 PM
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UAB86 Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Jerry Palm's (Early) Latest Projection
(12-18-2013 03:23 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  
(12-18-2013 02:36 PM)UAB86 Wrote:  
(12-18-2013 02:22 PM)the_blazerman Wrote:  
(12-18-2013 02:18 PM)The Answer UAB Wrote:  
(12-18-2013 02:17 PM)the_blazerman Wrote:  It is possible. It depends on conference record, OOC SOS, etc.

Has it happened before? Not being a smart azz, I just didn't think it had.

I suspect so. There have been a few cases over the last few years where someone above 65 in the RPI has made it as an at large.

If you control the things that you can control, conference record, scheduling tough opponents, etc as you can, then the stuff that you can't control (conference strength) isn't as much of a factor.

There have been cases where teams like Georgia got in the tournament at 16-16 due to the OOC strength of schedule.

Teams have also been left out due to the lack of OOC strength of schedule. (Southern Miss, Alabama several times, for example)
The Georgia team that you are referencing had an extremely high RPI despite the 16-16 record. I believe it was in the top 10.

That Georgia team won the SEC Tourney thus gettting an auto bid.
Umm, wrong. Good try though Bamascorpio!

The 2000-01 Georgia team made the tournament with a 16-15 record because of a 19 RPI. They beat 4 top 25 teams on the road and their worst loss was to a team with a 61 RPI. They actually LOST in the first round of the SEC tournament.

YOU are thinking of the 2008 team that entered the SEC tournament with a 13-16 overall record (4-12 SEC record) and then won the SEC tournament to secure the auto bid.

Check your facts next time.
(This post was last modified: 12-19-2013 12:29 PM by UAB86.)
12-19-2013 12:23 PM
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The Answer UAB Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Jerry Palm's (Early) Latest Projection
(12-19-2013 12:23 PM)UAB86 Wrote:  
(12-18-2013 03:23 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  
(12-18-2013 02:36 PM)UAB86 Wrote:  
(12-18-2013 02:22 PM)the_blazerman Wrote:  
(12-18-2013 02:18 PM)The Answer UAB Wrote:  Has it happened before? Not being a smart azz, I just didn't think it had.

I suspect so. There have been a few cases over the last few years where someone above 65 in the RPI has made it as an at large.

If you control the things that you can control, conference record, scheduling tough opponents, etc as you can, then the stuff that you can't control (conference strength) isn't as much of a factor.

There have been cases where teams like Georgia got in the tournament at 16-16 due to the OOC strength of schedule.

Teams have also been left out due to the lack of OOC strength of schedule. (Southern Miss, Alabama several times, for example)
The Georgia team that you are referencing had an extremely high RPI despite the 16-16 record. I believe it was in the top 10.

That Georgia team won the SEC Tourney thus gettting an auto bid.
Umm, wrong. Good try though Bamascorpio!

The 2000-01 Georgia team made the tournament with a 16-15 record because of a 19 RPI. They beat 4 top 25 teams on the road and their worst loss was to a team with a 61 RPI. They actually LOST in the first round of the SEC tournament.

YOU are thinking of the 2008 team that entered the SEC tournament with a 13-16 overall record (4-12 SEC record) and then won the SEC tournament to secure the auto bid.

Check your facts next time.

knowledge bomb dropped BOOM goes the dynamite
12-19-2013 12:32 PM
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UAB86 Offline
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Post: #47
RE: Jerry Palm's (Early) Latest Projection
(12-19-2013 12:32 PM)The Answer UAB Wrote:  
(12-19-2013 12:23 PM)UAB86 Wrote:  
(12-18-2013 03:23 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  
(12-18-2013 02:36 PM)UAB86 Wrote:  
(12-18-2013 02:22 PM)the_blazerman Wrote:  I suspect so. There have been a few cases over the last few years where someone above 65 in the RPI has made it as an at large.

If you control the things that you can control, conference record, scheduling tough opponents, etc as you can, then the stuff that you can't control (conference strength) isn't as much of a factor.

There have been cases where teams like Georgia got in the tournament at 16-16 due to the OOC strength of schedule.

Teams have also been left out due to the lack of OOC strength of schedule. (Southern Miss, Alabama several times, for example)
The Georgia team that you are referencing had an extremely high RPI despite the 16-16 record. I believe it was in the top 10.

That Georgia team won the SEC Tourney thus gettting an auto bid.
Umm, wrong. Good try though Bamascorpio!

The 2000-01 Georgia team made the tournament with a 16-15 record because of a 19 RPI. They beat 4 top 25 teams on the road and their worst loss was to a team with a 61 RPI. They actually LOST in the first round of the SEC tournament.

YOU are thinking of the 2008 team that entered the SEC tournament with a 13-16 overall record (4-12 SEC record) and then won the SEC tournament to secure the auto bid.

Check your facts next time.

knowledge bomb dropped BOOM goes the dynamite
Lol, I feel like Memphis Blazer. I got a bit aggressive in my reply to BamaScorpio.

I am surprised that he doesn't remember that Georgia team. Bama had like 25 wins and didn't get in. Bama fans made a big fuss about it. It was awesome.
12-19-2013 12:41 PM
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the_blazerman Offline
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Post: #48
RE: Jerry Palm's (Early) Latest Projection
For the record, Alabama has been left out twice in the last 10 years or so due in part to a very weak OOC schedule.
12-19-2013 12:43 PM
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the_blazerman Offline
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Post: #49
RE: Jerry Palm's (Early) Latest Projection
I just noticed in my email inbox today was yesterday's bracketology update. Sent to me this morning.
12-19-2013 01:09 PM
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BamaScorpio69 Offline
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Post: #50
RE: Jerry Palm's (Early) Latest Projection
(12-19-2013 12:41 PM)UAB86 Wrote:  
(12-19-2013 12:32 PM)The Answer UAB Wrote:  
(12-19-2013 12:23 PM)UAB86 Wrote:  
(12-18-2013 03:23 PM)BamaScorpio69 Wrote:  
(12-18-2013 02:36 PM)UAB86 Wrote:  The Georgia team that you are referencing had an extremely high RPI despite the 16-16 record. I believe it was in the top 10.

That Georgia team won the SEC Tourney thus gettting an auto bid.
Umm, wrong. Good try though Bamascorpio!

The 2000-01 Georgia team made the tournament with a 16-15 record because of a 19 RPI. They beat 4 top 25 teams on the road and their worst loss was to a team with a 61 RPI. They actually LOST in the first round of the SEC tournament.

YOU are thinking of the 2008 team that entered the SEC tournament with a 13-16 overall record (4-12 SEC record) and then won the SEC tournament to secure the auto bid.

Check your facts next time.

knowledge bomb dropped BOOM goes the dynamite
Lol, I feel like Memphis Blazer. I got a bit aggressive in my reply to BamaScorpio.

I am surprised that he doesn't remember that Georgia team. Bama had like 25 wins and didn't get in. Bama fans made a big fuss about it. It was awesome.

When you're right you're right. I have no problem admitting when I am wrong. Good job!

I will just say at that time, RPI did weigh very heavily when it came to a team's resume. Today, while the RPI is still the most visible tool in the selection process, more emphasis is being put on SOS and the eye test. The RPI helped Georgia that year. But they also had a tremendous SOS and some very good wins and some tough losses against good teams. In other words, they passed the eye test.

I posted this in another thread, in 2005 or 2006, Mizzou St finish the season with a 22-9 record, a SOS of 68, and an RPI of 21. They were even ranked in the Top 25 at several points during the season. That year, the MVC sent 4 teams to the Dance, Mizzou St was not one of those teams. They didn't pass the eye test.

A win against LSU is the next step in securing another quality win to help with the eye test and SOS. Get that win and take care of business in conference play, it will be hard to deny a team with victories over UNC, LSU (road), Rutgers, Nebraska and potentially no bad losses a bid to the Dance. Temple was definitely a blowout loss but that program carries major clout so the selection committee probably won't frown on that loss as badly as they would to a UTSA or ECU loss.
12-19-2013 01:10 PM
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blazers9911 Offline
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Post: #51
RE: Jerry Palm's (Early) Latest Projection
UTSA and ECU are in two different stratospheres. A loss to ECU wouldn't help our cause, but a loss to UTSA would all but destroy it.
12-19-2013 02:06 PM
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BamaScorpio69 Offline
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Post: #52
RE: Jerry Palm's (Early) Latest Projection
(12-18-2013 01:38 PM)the_blazerman Wrote:  Yep & then a potential matchup with Memphis in 2nd round.

Actually that is not how the bracket reads. I had to look twice at to make sure I was looking at it correctly. Add to the fact Memphis posters didn't go into an uproar after I posted it on their site:

UAB/Gonzaga winner plays Baylor/Belmont winner in the 3rd round. Kentucky/New Mexico winner plays Ohio St/Bucknell winner.
12-19-2013 04:12 PM
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Memphis Blazer Offline
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Post: #53
RE: Jerry Palm's (Early) Latest Projection
You didn't read the thread all the way thru did you.
12-19-2013 05:04 PM
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BamaScorpio69 Offline
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Post: #54
RE: Jerry Palm's (Early) Latest Projection
(12-19-2013 05:04 PM)Memphis Blazer Wrote:  You didn't read the thread all the way thru did you.

Nope....damn it! Lol
12-19-2013 05:13 PM
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BamaScorpio69 Offline
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Post: #55
RE: Jerry Palm's (Early) Latest Projection
(12-19-2013 02:06 PM)blazers9911 Wrote:  UTSA and ECU are in two different stratospheres. A loss to ECU wouldn't help our cause, but a loss to UTSA would all but destroy it.

Not for real. You really think the Selection Committee would look at an ECU differently than a loss to UTSA?
12-19-2013 05:15 PM
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blazers9911 Offline
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Post: #56
RE: Jerry Palm's (Early) Latest Projection
Yes. One team is rpi 150ish, the other is rpi 300+. Those are two very, very different losses.
12-19-2013 09:09 PM
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BamaScorpio69 Offline
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Post: #57
RE: Jerry Palm's (Early) Latest Projection
(12-19-2013 09:09 PM)blazers9911 Wrote:  Yes. One team is rpi 150ish, the other is rpi 300+. Those are two very, very different losses.

Doesn't matter. Anything loss to a team over a 100 RPI is going to be consider a bad loss from a resume perspective. And if you're talking about a loss to a team with a 150'ish RPI, you might as well be talking about loss to a 300+ RPI team.
12-20-2013 08:41 AM
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blazers9911 Offline
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Post: #58
RE: Jerry Palm's (Early) Latest Projection
It does matter. There is a bad loss, and then there is a through the roof, inexplicable loss. Realtimerpi doesn't decipher between losses RPI 100-199 and 200+ for no reason. If you lost to the team rated 105, and had a similar resume to a team with a loss to the team rated 315, do you not think that would be something they look at?

I completely understand any loss outside of the top 100 is not a "good loss", but there are varying degrees when you are talking about 250+ spots.
12-20-2013 08:54 AM
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The Answer UAB Offline
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Post: #59
RE: Jerry Palm's (Early) Latest Projection
Blazers is right on this.

The losses aren't separated based on sub100, sub200, for no reason.
12-20-2013 09:23 AM
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BamaScorpio69 Offline
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Post: #60
RE: Jerry Palm's (Early) Latest Projection
(12-20-2013 08:54 AM)blazers9911 Wrote:  It does matter. There is a bad loss, and then there is a through the roof, inexplicable loss. Realtimerpi doesn't decipher between losses RPI 100-199 and 200+ for no reason. If you lost to the team rated 105, and had a similar resume to a team with a loss to the team rated 315, do you not think that would be something they look at?

I completely understand any loss outside of the top 100 is not a "good loss", but there are varying degrees when you are talking about 250+ spots.

We agree to disagree. Nothing wrong with that.
12-20-2013 09:36 AM
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