Thinking about the last couple years
Hindsight is 20/20 so they say, and during realignment no one knew what to expect. So IMO we jumped the gun just trying to survive with some of our choices. It got me to thinking, who should C-USA have taken a wait and see approach with before adding?
Some obvious choices would be the transitional schools ODU, UTSA, and Charlotte since they are so young, but IMO UTSA isn't going to struggle at all and will come in handy by adding a new Texas market. I didn't have this opinion until they went 7-5 this season (Hindsight). ODU will win some games next year and might even contend like UTSA did this year. Charlotte, I'm not so sure about. They will be entering C-USA without ever facing a FBS opponent. They weren't going to be invited to the ACC or the AAC so why rush it. Let them go to the Sun Belt if they wanted to add football. If they do well, add them.
As for those that were already at the FBS level, you have North Texas, MTSU, FAU, FIU, La. Tech, and WKU. This is how I think it should have played out. We lost Memphis, Houston, UCF, and SMU. The next day we should have added, MTSU, UTSA, FAU, and North Texas and got back to 12 by adding someone near the market we just lost, but also a quality addition. FIU and La. Tech wouldn't have been in my first cut. We still had Tulane and So. Miss so La. Tech wasn't needed IMO, and we should have added FAU over FIU, but I believe FIU being a partial member helped them get the initial selection over FAU. I don't know what else was so much more appealing over FAU.
So if I were commissioner for the 2013-2014 season the only new schools we would have had is FAU, UTSA, MTSU, and North Texas.
Once, Tulane and ECU decided to leave that is when ODU and La. Tech would have came into the picture. There is no one in NC near ECU location wise or athletically that could offset them leaving. This is when ODU would have been picked. As for filling Tulane's spot, La Tech might not be near NO, but is in the same state and is fairly competitive. That would have kept us at 12 minus FIU, WKU, and Charlotte.
Then came the announcement that Tulsa was leaving. Just like ECU there is no one in Oklahoma that could offset Tulsa leaving so we needed to look at schools in and around our current footprint to replace them. As a Marshall fan I will not argue with WKU being added because now I can travel to watch the Herd without going broke so I was all for WKU, no matter who else was being considered.
I would have stayed with this 12 without Charlotte or FIU for a few seasons. If we needed to go to 14 or even 16 then maybe they should be considered, but FIU's proximity to FAU doesn't help us, just like when we had Rice and Houston. I probably wouldn't have added Rice back in 2005 since Houston was here already but I don't know the entire story behind that decision.
As for Charlotte they were picked because of the market and the market alone. But FIU and FAU deliver the same market and both didn't need to be added, IMO. I'm not saying we should have taken other schools over Charlotte and FIU when we added them, I'm just saying that we should have taken a wait and see approach. FIU and Charlotte might eventually turn into powerhouses, but it isn't going to happen in the near future and we could have taken them from the Sun Belt when decided we needed them.
Charlotte would have probably ended up in C-USA at some point anyway, but FIU in my scenario most likely wouldn't have. When we would have decided to finally add Charlotte we would have needed one more to come with them and could have looked at markets like Georgia or Arkansas to bridge gaps between what would have been our current layout.
FIU is a giant school, in a huge market, but something is missing at this time. Their only two good years in ten years came under an up and coming coach and then after one bad season they fired him. I don't know the whole story there either, but FIU adds nothing that FAU didn't add. And FAU seems to be well ahead of FIU in many different areas, while bringing the same market.
The Sun Belt wouldn't have been viewed as better than us by the computers this year if we didn't have FIU and La. Tech because both of those schools would have either been in the Sun Belt or independent. Next season we could have brought in La. Tech, WKU and ODU and still been at 12 with less bottom feeders than we currently have and will have in the future once Charlotte gets here.
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