My projections of the CFP bowl matchups based upon this year's results under each semifinal bowl option (rankings from the Coaches Poll):

Rose and Sugar as semis:

Rose: (1) Florida St. v. (4) Mich. St.
Sugar: (2) Auburn v. (3) Alabama

Orange: (ACC) Clemson v. (B1G/SEC/ND) Ohio St.
Peach: (G5) UCF v. (8) So. Carolina
Fiesta: (P12) Stanford v. (10) Oklahoma
Cotton: (B12) Baylor v. (7) Missouri


Orange and Cotton as semis:

Orange: (1) Florida St. v. (4) Mich. St.
Cotton: (2) Auburn v. (3) Alabama

Rose: (B1G) Ohio St. v. (P12) Stanford
Sugar: (7) Missouri v. (B12) Baylor
Peach: (G5) UCF v. (8) So. Carolina
Fiesta: (12) Oregon v. (10) Oklahoma


Peach and Fiesta as semis

Peach: (1) Florida St. v. (4) Mich. St.
Fiesta: (2) Auburn v. (3) Alabama

Orange: (ACC) Clemson v. (B1G/SEC/ND) Missouri
Sugar: (8) So. Carolina v. (B12) Baylor
Rose: (B1G) Ohio St. v. (P12) Stanford
Cotton: (10) Oklahoma v. (G5) UCF

(12-08-2013 01:59 PM)orangefan Wrote:  My projections of the CFP bowl matchups based upon this year's results under each semifinal bowl option:

Rose and Sugar as semis:

Rose: (1) Florida St. v. (4) Mich. St.
Sugar: (2) Auburn v. (3) Alabama

Orange: (ACC) Clemson v. (B1G/SEC/ND) Ohio St.
Peach: (G5) UCF v. (8) So. Carolina
Fiesta: (P12) Stanford v. (10) Oklahoma
Cotton: (B12) Baylor v. (7) Missouri


Orange and Cotton as semis:

Orange: (1) Florida St. v. (4) Mich. St.
Cotton: (2) Auburn v. (3) Alabama

Rose: (B1G) Ohio St. v. (P12) Stanford
Sugar: (7) Missouri v. (B12) Baylor
Peach: (G5) UCF v. (8) So. Carolina
Fiesta: (12) Oregon v. (10) Oklahoma


Peach and Fiesta as semis

Peach: (1) Florida St. v. (4) Mich. St.
Fiesta: (2) Auburn v. (3) Alabama

Orange: (ACC) Clemson v. (B1G/SEC/ND) Missouri
Sugar: (8) So. Carolina v. (B12) Baylor
Rose: (B1G) Ohio St. v. (P12) Stanford
Cotton: (10) Oklahoma v. (G5) UCF

I would hope they would avoid the UCF vs. South Carolina rematch....

(12-08-2013 02:02 PM)Maize Wrote:  

(12-08-2013 01:59 PM)orangefan Wrote:  My projections of the CFP bowl matchups based upon this year's results under each semifinal bowl option:

Rose and Sugar as semis:

Rose: (1) Florida St. v. (4) Mich. St.
Sugar: (2) Auburn v. (3) Alabama

Orange: (ACC) Clemson v. (B1G/SEC/ND) Ohio St.
Peach: (G5) UCF v. (7) Missouri
Fiesta: (P12) Stanford v. (10) Oklahoma
Cotton: (B12) Baylor v. (8) So. Carolina


Orange and Cotton as semis:

Orange: (1) Florida St. v. (4) Mich. St.
Cotton: (2) Auburn v. (3) Alabama

Rose: (B1G) Ohio St. v. (P12) Stanford
Sugar: (8) So. Carolina v. (B12) Baylor
Peach: (G5) UCF v. (7) Missouri
Fiesta: (12) Oregon v. (10) Oklahoma


Peach and Fiesta as semis

Peach: (1) Florida St. v. (4) Mich. St.
Fiesta: (2) Auburn v. (3) Alabama

Orange: (ACC) Clemson v. (B1G/SEC/ND) Missouri
Sugar: (8) So. Carolina v. (B12) Baylor
Rose: (B1G) Ohio St. v. (P12) Stanford
Cotton: (10) Oklahoma v. (G5) UCF

I would hope they would avoid the UCF vs. South Carolina rematch....

Good point. Flip Mizzou and SCar in two scenarios.

(12-08-2013 01:59 PM)orangefan Wrote:  My projections of the CFP bowl matchups based upon this year's results under each semifinal bowl option (rankings from the Coaches Poll):

Orange and Cotton as semis:

Orange: (1) Florida St. v. (4) Mich. St.
Cotton: (2) Auburn v. (3) Alabama

Rose: (B1G) Ohio St. v. (P12) Stanford
Sugar: (7) Missouri v. (B12) Baylor
Peach: (G5) UCF v. (8) So. Carolina
Fiesta: (12) Oregon v. (10) Oklahoma

When the OB is a semi final they would still place a team in one of the other access bowls...most likely the Peach. It's a part of the agreement. So you would need to find a spot for Clemson.

(12-08-2013 02:02 PM)Maize Wrote:  I would hope they would avoid the UCF vs. South Carolina rematch....

Not me, UCF wants the opportunity to avenge that loss. I think they would do it too. UCF had SC's number, they beat up on them for 3 qtrs. I dont know what the hell was going on right out of the half.

(12-08-2013 02:09 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(12-08-2013 01:59 PM)orangefan Wrote:  My projections of the CFP bowl matchups based upon this year's results under each semifinal bowl option (rankings from the Coaches Poll):

Orange and Cotton as semis:

Orange: (1) Florida St. v. (4) Mich. St.
Cotton: (2) Auburn v. (3) Alabama

Rose: (B1G) Ohio St. v. (P12) Stanford
Sugar: (7) Missouri v. (B12) Baylor
Peach: (G5) UCF v. (8) So. Carolina
Fiesta: (12) Oregon v. (10) Oklahoma

When the OB is a semi final they would still place a team in one of the other access bowls...most likely the Peach. It's a part of the agreement.

I don't think that is correct. As long as they have a team in the playoff, they aren't guaranteed another. Same applies to the other 4 conferences. That extra bid only happens when they get a team in the playoffs and their bowl isn't one of the playoff bowls.

(12-08-2013 02:15 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-08-2013 02:09 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(12-08-2013 01:59 PM)orangefan Wrote:  My projections of the CFP bowl matchups based upon this year's results under each semifinal bowl option (rankings from the Coaches Poll):

Orange and Cotton as semis:

Orange: (1) Florida St. v. (4) Mich. St.
Cotton: (2) Auburn v. (3) Alabama

Rose: (B1G) Ohio St. v. (P12) Stanford
Sugar: (7) Missouri v. (B12) Baylor
Peach: (G5) UCF v. (8) So. Carolina
Fiesta: (12) Oregon v. (10) Oklahoma

When the OB is a semi final they would still place a team in one of the other access bowls...most likely the Peach. It's a part of the agreement.

I don't think that is correct. As long as they have a team in the playoff, they aren't guaranteed another. Same applies to the other 4 conferences. That extra bid only happens when they get a team in the playoffs and their bowl isn't one of the playoff bowls.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/stor...-agreement

When the Orange Bowl hosts the national semifinals, the ACC champion and the highest-ranked available team from Notre Dame, the Big Ten or the SEC will be placed in an access bowl instead.

This is one of the reasons why the OB deal is great for the ACC.

(12-08-2013 02:17 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(12-08-2013 02:15 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-08-2013 02:09 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(12-08-2013 01:59 PM)orangefan Wrote:  My projections of the CFP bowl matchups based upon this year's results under each semifinal bowl option (rankings from the Coaches Poll):

Orange and Cotton as semis:

Orange: (1) Florida St. v. (4) Mich. St.
Cotton: (2) Auburn v. (3) Alabama

Rose: (B1G) Ohio St. v. (P12) Stanford
Sugar: (7) Missouri v. (B12) Baylor
Peach: (G5) UCF v. (8) So. Carolina
Fiesta: (12) Oregon v. (10) Oklahoma

When the OB is a semi final they would still place a team in one of the other access bowls...most likely the Peach. It's a part of the agreement.

I don't think that is correct. As long as they have a team in the playoff, they aren't guaranteed another. Same applies to the other 4 conferences. That extra bid only happens when they get a team in the playoffs and their bowl isn't one of the playoff bowls.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/stor...-agreement

When the Orange Bowl hosts the national semifinals, the ACC champion and the highest-ranked available team from Notre Dame, the Big Ten or the SEC will be placed in an access bowl instead.

This is one of the reasons why the OB deal is great for the ACC.

Yes, but the guaranteed appearance will be satisfied by FSU's appearance in the semifinals.

(12-08-2013 02:22 PM)orangefan Wrote:  

(12-08-2013 02:17 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(12-08-2013 02:15 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-08-2013 02:09 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(12-08-2013 01:59 PM)orangefan Wrote:  My projections of the CFP bowl matchups based upon this year's results under each semifinal bowl option (rankings from the Coaches Poll):

Orange and Cotton as semis:

Orange: (1) Florida St. v. (4) Mich. St.
Cotton: (2) Auburn v. (3) Alabama

Rose: (B1G) Ohio St. v. (P12) Stanford
Sugar: (7) Missouri v. (B12) Baylor
Peach: (G5) UCF v. (8) So. Carolina
Fiesta: (12) Oregon v. (10) Oklahoma

When the OB is a semi final they would still place a team in one of the other access bowls...most likely the Peach. It's a part of the agreement.

I don't think that is correct. As long as they have a team in the playoff, they aren't guaranteed another. Same applies to the other 4 conferences. That extra bid only happens when they get a team in the playoffs and their bowl isn't one of the playoff bowls.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/stor...-agreement

When the Orange Bowl hosts the national semifinals, the ACC champion and the highest-ranked available team from Notre Dame, the Big Ten or the SEC will be placed in an access bowl instead.

This is one of the reasons why the OB deal is great for the ACC.

Yes, but the guaranteed appearance will be satisfied by FSU's appearance in the semifinals.

Another excerpt:

In years when the ACC champion or another ACC team qualifies for the four-team national semifinals, then the next highest-ranked ACC team would play in the Orange Bowl.

(12-08-2013 02:24 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(12-08-2013 02:22 PM)orangefan Wrote:  

(12-08-2013 02:17 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(12-08-2013 02:15 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-08-2013 02:09 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  When the OB is a semi final they would still place a team in one of the other access bowls...most likely the Peach. It's a part of the agreement.

I don't think that is correct. As long as they have a team in the playoff, they aren't guaranteed another. Same applies to the other 4 conferences. That extra bid only happens when they get a team in the playoffs and their bowl isn't one of the playoff bowls.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/stor...-agreement

When the Orange Bowl hosts the national semifinals, the ACC champion and the highest-ranked available team from Notre Dame, the Big Ten or the SEC will be placed in an access bowl instead.

This is one of the reasons why the OB deal is great for the ACC.

Yes, but the guaranteed appearance will be satisfied by FSU's appearance in the semifinals.

Another excerpt:

In years when the ACC champion or another ACC team qualifies for the four-team national semifinals, then the next highest-ranked ACC team would play in the Orange Bowl.

Yes, but his only applies when the OB is not a semi. The same rule applies to all of the P5 conferences with their contract bowls.

I guess it's up to interpretation. David Teel (beat writer for Va Tech and UVA) interpreted it the same way I did:

http://www.dailypress.com/sports/teel-bl...6742.story


If the ACC champion qualifies for the playoffs in a year when the Orange is not a semifinal host, the next-highest ranked ACC team will play in the Orange. If the ACC champ makes an Orange Bowl semifinal, then the league’s No. 2 team heads to an access bowl.

When your bowl is a sf, if your CHAMPION is not in the playoff, they will go to an access bowl.
if your champion is in the playoff, your RUNNER-UP IS NOT guaranteed a spot in an access bowl.

So, Clemson would not be automatic in the year that the Orange is a sf.

(12-08-2013 03:43 PM)stever20 Wrote:  When your bowl is a sf, if your CHAMPION is not in the playoff, they will go to an access bowl.
if your champion is in the playoff, your RUNNER-UP IS NOT guaranteed a spot in an access bowl.

So, Clemson would not be automatic in the year that the Orange is a sf.

This. If the other scenario were true, there would not be enough slots for all the teams in the years the Rose/Sugar hosted semis.

Kind of pointless to do projections using this year's "results" when this year's results may be different using next year's criteria.

(12-08-2013 05:32 PM)Marge Schott Wrote:  Kind of pointless to do projections using this year's "results" when this year's results may be different using next year's criteria.

whatever. it totally makes sense... We get an idea of what next year would look like...

What I think would be interesting would be next year, would the committee select Ohio St or Missouri for the Orange Bowl.

using the BCS standings(which I know isn't right but it's still pretty close)
playoffs- FSU, Auburn, Alabama, Mich St
Orange #12 Clemson vs #7 Ohio St
access bowls would have
#5 Stanford
#6 Baylor
#15 UCF
automatics
#8 Missouri
#9 South Carolina
#10 Oregon
selections

#11 Oklahoma would have been out, though I think you could easily see them selected over Oregon.

If in 2015-
playoffs same of course
Rose- Stanford vs Ohio St
Sugar- Baylor vs Missouri
access-
#15 UCF(auto)
#9 South Carolina
#10 Oregon
#11 Oklahoma

If in 2016-
playoffs same
Rose- Stanford vs Ohio St
Sugar- Baylor vs South Carolina
Orange- Clemson vs Missouri
access-
#10 Oregon vs #15 UCF

Clemson is out if the OB is a semi. This was a sticking point for the G5.

yeah, it could dicey at the bottom selections.
Some years won't have alot of at larges open, and orange deal with sec,b10,nd could get interesting especially toward the end of the cycle.

IF the SEC depth trend continues, it would appear the 4 times where the orange has it's game, and the access bowls are hosting the sf, those 4 times will almost certainly be either SEC or ND. The years like next year where Orange gets it's game, and Rose/Sugar are hosting SF- those years are much more neutral for them.

I think we are also making a big assumption on how they plan on ranking teams. For all we know they might bump Bama and put Baylor in.

I may be off base here but I think we you may be wrong to include Alabama in the playoff. Supposedly strength of schedule is going to play a much bigger part in picking the playoff participants. Using Sagarin's computer rankings Alabama's SOS is 45th while another team in the top 5, Stanford's SOS is 4th in the country. I really wouldn't make this point if they were close but 4th to 45th is a pretty big discrepancy. Just food for thought.