Conference Championship Game picks (take to the bank, LOL)
Alright, here's how I break these games down. Bear in mind that I will NOT be betting any of my money on any of them, so that shows you how much confidence you should have in my takes, LOL:
B1G: Lots of talk about MSU knocking off the alleged paper-tiger Ohio State, but I'm not buying it. First, Ohio State may not be the second best team in the country, but they are no worse than the 5th or 6th best, and that makes them considerably better than MSU, probably the 20th best team, and that's being generous. Second, Urban is a hellacious big-game coach, and this is a BIG game.
Third, if this game were played outdoors (like EVERY OTHER B1G game!) in the 20 degree weather predicted for Indy today, then MSU would have a great chance of turning it into a trench-warfare, defensive struggle that they could win. But indoors, OSU's vastly superior and speedy skill position players are going to run circles around the MSU defense, which is big and tough but not very fast. And because Urban will still be afraid of losing that vote to the SEC champ, the pedal will not come off the metal.OSU 41, MSU 13
SEC: In the aftermath of the Iron Bowl, Missouri has been largely forgotten, and so the late smart money seems to be on the M-Tigers to beat the A-Tigers and end all the controversy about whether Auburn merits a BCS title berth. But I think the smart money is outsmarting itself here. No question, both of these teams are high quality, but truth is, neither plays very good defense, so expect a shoot-out. In that shoot-out, Mizzou seems to have the edge as they are more balanced, able to run and throw effectively whereas Auburn is about the run. But sometimes, it's better to have one big stick than two medium-sized ones, and I think this is the case here. Auburn will control the ball with their powerful running game, enough to eek this one out.Auburn 38, Missouri 31
PAC: This game features the only title-game rematch in the major-conference games, as Stanford beat ASU 42-28 back in September. True, the Wildcats have gone 8-1 since then and look like a markedly improved team. In that first game Stanford won by ramming the ball down ASU's throat, which was enough to offset ASU's big advantage in the passing game.
Usually, rematches favor the loser, as teams usually learn more from losses than wins. But expect this game to go the same way: ASU won't have any more of an honest answer for Stanford's physical run game than they did three months ago, and if they resort to gimmicky 8 or 9 man in the box looks, the big brains of Stanford will figure that out too. Stanford 27, Arizona State 17
ACC: This one of those times when the conventional wisdom is correct. We all know FSU is going to plow Duke under, and quickly, and there's no reason to think we're wrong. Jimbo Fisher may not be the best Xs and Os coach, but like vintage 1990s Bobby Bowden, he knows how to exploit athletic/physical advantages, and as has been the case many times this season, he will have those advantages at all 22 positions today.
FSU 56, Duke 10
SWAC: Yeah this is an FCS matchup but Southern University and Jackson State have some great football tradition between them so why not spend a moment on this? Another rematch, as Jackson State defeated Southern 19-14 back in September in Baton Rouge. Southern has an excellent passing attack, but Jackson State runs the ball better, and Southern's run defense is a sieve. For the third time today, I expect the team with the better run game to beat the team with the high-flying pass game. Southern will be lucky to see the ball for 25 minutes today, not enough. Jackson State 31, Southern 20
(This post was last modified: 12-07-2013 09:06 AM by quo vadis.)
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