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Time to rank the BBall teams
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pono Offline
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Post: #1
Time to rank the BBall teams
So the regular season is about 1/4 complete (really) and it's time to rank how the league stacks up. Of course, a key injury, academic issue, etc... could change things up for a team real fast, but as of now:

1) Toledo (disclaimer, I'm a Rockets fan, but..) the league's only remaining unbeaten is also the most offensively balanced team with a lot of scorers, good ball movement, a strong pg, and enough inside play to balance the floor. Toledo hasn't beaten any really good teams yet but has played most of their games at road or neutral sites. this looks like a well coached team that can make individual plays but likes to play team ball. next stretch of 6 non-conf games includes a few typically good mid majors and ends with a matchup at Kansas which could see a 12-0 Toledo team taking on the all americans.

2) Ohio is also a very balanced club. not as many scorers as Toledo but N'dour has been a great addition and the defense is real solid. ohio doesn't have any bangers and is still kinda figuring out who and how they will run the show at pg (taylor and willis look pretty capable so far) but this is also a team that plays like a team and has experience and enough depth. they've mostly played home games but have beaten some solid mid major programs.

3) Kent is a dangerous team that you won't want to see in your tourney bracket. they are a little unbalanced with a lack of consistent inside play, but have as deep a roster as any in the mac and guys who can make shots.

4) Akron, a little on faith here as they haven't looked too good so far, but dambrot seems to always figure it out to a certain degree. right now they don't have much idea how they want to play or who does what, but they do have players at every position except pg which will probably be their Achilles heel unless Betancourt or evans picks it up. they scheduled up for a change this year so plenty of chances to see how they stack up before conf play begins

5) Western Mich could rise as high as third. they have shooters, a good big guy and are well coached with a clear sense of how they intend to play and what tempo they want. talent wise only middle of the pack but will beat some more talented teams along the way

6) eastern is probably the mac's most talented team if you define talent by things like size quickness jumping ability and dribbling skills. unfortunately, eastern is possibly the league's least talented group when it comes to organization, focus, and collaboration. murphy has a simple enough defensive concept that plays to their strengths and doesn't require great def fundamentals so they won't be easy to score on. offensively they have plenty of guys who can go one on one or jump over you, but the guy that's open is most likely watching the guy who has three hands in his face shoot a fadeaway jumper. maybe, they come together and decide to play team ball and peak late. I think we see more sporadic play (brilliant-sloppy-brilliant-selfish) while deshante riley turns his 7 foot frame away from the basket, holds the ball at his thighs and looks over his shoulder hoping something good - a cute bunny? - will magically appear.

7) buffalo has the outline of a good team, but was a bit overrated coming in - with too many 1st yr guys expected to make a difference and a HC who had never coached a game in that role. they could end up challenging for the title, it's possible, but there's work to do.

8-12) BG, Miami, Ball St, Central, NIU are all a little behind the pack. BG might be the best of these now, Miami adds a talented transfer in a couple weeks and seems to be buying into cooper's coaching, ball st has some balance w talented young pg, a veteran sg, and a good inside presence in majok majok but they are not deep enough and have a new inexperienced HC. central is pretty well coached and is beating the weaker teams on it's sched but is lower tier in terms of talent. NIU seems improved but not really dangerous. they should have their best season in a few years and still finish under 500.
(This post was last modified: 12-05-2013 04:04 AM by pono.)
12-05-2013 04:00 AM
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EagleSam Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Time to rank the BBall teams
I wasn't very happy with how the UMass game turned out either, but you're awfully critical of a team that's only two losses are to ranked opponents, one of which they probably would've won if they made a damn free throw.
12-05-2013 06:46 AM
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emu steve Online
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RE: Time to rank the BBall teams
(12-05-2013 06:46 AM)EagleSam Wrote:  I wasn't very happy with how the UMass game turned out either, but you're awfully critical of a team that's only two losses are to ranked opponents, one of which they probably would've won if they made a damn free throw.

You're right.

If EMU is mid-pack, the pack is pretty damn good.

I got a feeling that there are say 4 or 5 MAC teams which are pretty good.

The "MAC is Back"...

I like Toledo #1 and then pick any of 3 or 4 for #2.

I'm picking [drum roll please]...
12-05-2013 07:09 AM
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H2Oville Rocket Offline
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RE: Time to rank the BBall teams
EMU's defensive scheme doesn't require great fundamentals so they won't be easy to score on? Can you explain that?
12-05-2013 07:27 AM
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BruceMcF Offline
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RE: Time to rank the BBall teams
(12-05-2013 07:27 AM)H2Oville Rocket Wrote:  EMU's defensive scheme doesn't require great fundamentals so they won't be easy to score on? Can you explain that?
I'm going to put my money down on a system that relies more heavily on some defensive fundamentals than on others, with the fundamentals it relies on more heavily waved away as being something other than defensive fundamentals.

In any event, EMU has their return game this year at Purdue coming up, with Purdue looking to avenge last year's defeat at the hands of EMU, so I guess we'll have a test of how well the defensive system that leans whatever it is their defensive system leans on works.
(This post was last modified: 12-05-2013 11:39 AM by BruceMcF.)
12-05-2013 11:39 AM
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Bobcat110 Offline
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RE: Time to rank the BBall teams
Fortunately, RPI likes MAC better than Sagarin. It'd be nice to get Akron, EMU and Kent in top 100 RPI. Kent loss to Bucknell hurt. Looks like current consensus:

Tier 1: Ohio, Toledo, then
Tier 2: Kent, Akron, EMU, then
Tier 3: WMU, Buffalo, BGSU, then
Tier 4: Ball St, Miami, CMU, NIU


Sagarin:

Ohio 67
Toledo 101
Kent 128
Akron 170
EMU 174
WMU 185
Buffalo 214
BGSU 226
Ball St 242
Miami 248
CMU 265
NIU 278

RPI

Ohio 40
Toledo 67
Akron 103
EMU 107
Kent 130
BGSU 140
Miami 162
Ball St 239
WMU 255
CMU 269
Buffalo 307
NIU 328
12-05-2013 02:32 PM
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Love and Honor Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Time to rank the BBall teams
Hopefully getting Moore off suspension will jump start Miami before MAC play, if we keep playing like we did in the second half against IPFW that's a positive sign of things to come with him coming into the fray. A good goal for us would be to host a first-round MAC tourney game, I'll be thrilled if that happens.
12-05-2013 02:42 PM
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MileHighBronco Offline
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RE: Time to rank the BBall teams
I don't put much stock at all in any of these rankings until we begin to play conference games. The wild fluctuations in RPI (even when you don't play) tells me that there isn't enough data yet.

We can all make our own rankings in which we put our favorite team near the top but they don't mean a whole lot yet until we start playing each other.
12-05-2013 04:37 PM
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BruceMcF Offline
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RE: Time to rank the BBall teams
(12-05-2013 04:37 PM)MileHighBronco Wrote:  I don't put much stock at all in any of these rankings until we begin to play conference games. The wild fluctuations in RPI (even when you don't play) tells me that there isn't enough data yet.
Yes, the balance of the schedule over the course of the year is a quite different thing from the balance of the schedule in the early part of the season. Indeed, if you beat a team that gets its act together in the second half, playing them can yield RPI dividends all season long.
12-05-2013 04:56 PM
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Bobcat110 Offline
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RE: Time to rank the BBall teams
(12-05-2013 04:37 PM)MileHighBronco Wrote:  I don't put much stock at all in any of these rankings until we begin to play conference games. The wild fluctuations in RPI (even when you don't play) tells me that there isn't enough data yet.

We can all make our own rankings in which we put our favorite team near the top but they don't mean a whole lot yet until we start playing each other.

That's too bad. I think building the RPI is more important now in the OOC games when they can be impacted more greatly. Once in conference play, we just cannibalize each other's RPI's...If WMU comes into MAC play with a crappy 255 RPI and then starts winning, then they just knock another MAC team's RPI down. If they would win now, they're taking points from another conference. Most teams are already over 1/2 way through their OOC schedule, not much more time IMO to add good data.
12-05-2013 06:51 PM
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axeme Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Time to rank the BBall teams
It doesn't appear that there will be any MAC team with a good enough RPI to matter anyway. It's only relevant if it is in the rough at-large range. I will be surprised if any MAC team is better than 60 by the time MAC play rolls around, and even 60 isn't good enough unless that team can basically run the table in conference play which seems very, very unlikely this season. The better teams are not as good as they have been in the past and the middling teams are marginally better. Parity! Sort of...
12-05-2013 07:40 PM
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Bobcat110 Offline
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RE: Time to rank the BBall teams
(12-05-2013 07:40 PM)axeme Wrote:  It doesn't appear that there will be any MAC team with a good enough RPI to matter anyway. It's only relevant if it is in the rough at-large range. I will be surprised if any MAC team is better than 60 by the time MAC play rolls around, and even 60 isn't good enough unless that team can basically run the table in conference play which seems very, very unlikely this season. The better teams are not as good as they have been in the past and the middling teams are marginally better. Parity! Sort of...

Ohio could be low 40's/upper 30's if they can beat UMASS at home, lose close at Richmond and not trip up against their 4 other OOC opponents. Maybe upper 20's/lower 30's if they knock off UMASS and Richmond.
12-05-2013 09:19 PM
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axeme Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Time to rank the BBall teams
That's six "ifs" to overcome. There a few teams who could be sitting in good shape IF they do everything right. That's why I said it is not likely. And the margin of a road (or home) loss is irrelevant to RPI.

It would be great if the MAC were better than it appears to be, but it looks like about how it looked pre-season: a number of teams around 100 RPI, mostly everyone over., and too many 200+.
12-05-2013 09:44 PM
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JSF Offline
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RE: Time to rank the BBall teams
(12-05-2013 09:19 PM)Bobcat110 Wrote:  Ohio could be low 40's/upper 30's if they can beat UMASS at home, lose close at Richmond and not trip up against their 4 other OOC opponents.

Margin of victory is not a factor in RPI.
12-05-2013 10:48 PM
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Bobcat110 Offline
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RE: Time to rank the BBall teams
(12-05-2013 09:44 PM)axeme Wrote:  That's six "ifs" to overcome. There a few teams who could be sitting in good shape IF they do everything right. That's why I said it is not likely. And the margin of a road (or home) loss is irrelevant to RPI.

It would be great if the MAC were better than it appears to be, but it looks like about how it looked pre-season: a number of teams around 100 RPI, mostly everyone over., and too many 200+.

Not like they are big "ifs", Ohio should beat these teams:
At Oakland 182
Alabama A&M 285
Vs Longwood 327
At UNC Ashville 222

And have a chance of winning one of these two:
home vs UMASS 1
At Richmond 67
12-05-2013 11:37 PM
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BruceMcF Offline
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RE: Time to rank the BBall teams
(12-05-2013 06:51 PM)Bobcat110 Wrote:  Once in conference play, we just cannibalize each other's RPI's...If WMU comes into MAC play with a crappy 255 RPI and then starts winning, then they just knock another MAC team's RPI down.
Yeah, that's part of what suggests parity scheduling, where the schools that tend to come into conference play with the strongest record would play each other most often, which maximizes the RPI benefit if a particular team does very well in conference.

But that game is only worth the candle if it puts the best regular season MAC school on the bubble for at-large selection even if it should lose the final, otherwise the greater value comes from stable divisions built on strong inter-school rivalries.
12-05-2013 11:44 PM
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axeme Offline
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RE: Time to rank the BBall teams
(12-05-2013 11:37 PM)Bobcat110 Wrote:  
(12-05-2013 09:44 PM)axeme Wrote:  That's six "ifs" to overcome. There a few teams who could be sitting in good shape IF they do everything right. That's why I said it is not likely. And the margin of a road (or home) loss is irrelevant to RPI.

It would be great if the MAC were better than it appears to be, but it looks like about how it looked pre-season: a number of teams around 100 RPI, mostly everyone over., and too many 200+.

Not like they are big "ifs", Ohio should beat these teams:
At Oakland 182
Alabama A&M 285
Vs Longwood 327
At UNC Ashville 222

And have a chance of winning one of these two:
home vs UMASS 1
At Richmond 67

I guess I forgot that Ohio U. never loses to teams it should always beat. How many years since that happened?
12-06-2013 07:20 AM
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MaddDawgz02 Offline
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RE: Time to rank the BBall teams
(12-05-2013 02:32 PM)Bobcat110 Wrote:  Fortunately, RPI likes MAC better than Sagarin. It'd be nice to get Akron, EMU and Kent in top 100 RPI. Kent loss to Bucknell hurt. Looks like current consensus:

Tier 1: Ohio, Toledo, then
Tier 2: Kent, Akron, EMU, then
Tier 3: WMU, Buffalo, BGSU, then
Tier 4: Ball St, Miami, CMU, NIU


Sagarin:

Ohio 67
Toledo 101
Kent 128
Akron 170
EMU 174
WMU 185
Buffalo 214
BGSU 226
Ball St 242
Miami 248
CMU 265
NIU 278

RPI

Ohio 40
Toledo 67
Akron 103
EMU 107
Kent 130
BGSU 140
Miami 162
Ball St 239
WMU 255
CMU 269
Buffalo 307
NIU 328

Huskies no longer the worst RPI in the conference. Last night's wins over Dartmouth has pushed NIU to 279, tied with CMU now. Buffalo is the worst at 310.
12-06-2013 07:58 AM
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RE: Time to rank the BBall teams
(12-06-2013 07:20 AM)axeme Wrote:  
(12-05-2013 11:37 PM)Bobcat110 Wrote:  
(12-05-2013 09:44 PM)axeme Wrote:  That's six "ifs" to overcome. There a few teams who could be sitting in good shape IF they do everything right. That's why I said it is not likely. And the margin of a road (or home) loss is irrelevant to RPI.

It would be great if the MAC were better than it appears to be, but it looks like about how it looked pre-season: a number of teams around 100 RPI, mostly everyone over., and too many 200+.

Not like they are big "ifs", Ohio should beat these teams:
At Oakland 182
Alabama A&M 285
Vs Longwood 327
At UNC Ashville 222

And have a chance of winning one of these two:
home vs UMASS 1
At Richmond 67

I guess I forgot that Ohio U. never loses to teams it should always beat. How many years since that happened?

Feeling snippy this morning, are we?
12-06-2013 09:47 AM
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Eagle66 Offline
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RE: Time to rank the BBall teams
(12-05-2013 11:37 PM)Bobcat110 Wrote:  
(12-05-2013 09:44 PM)axeme Wrote:  That's six "ifs" to overcome. There a few teams who could be sitting in good shape IF they do everything right. That's why I said it is not likely. And the margin of a road (or home) loss is irrelevant to RPI.

It would be great if the MAC were better than it appears to be, but it looks like about how it looked pre-season: a number of teams around 100 RPI, mostly everyone over., and too many 200+.

Not like they are big "ifs", Ohio should beat these teams:
At Oakland 182
Alabama A&M 285
Vs Longwood 327
At UNC Ashville 222

And have a chance of winning one of these two:
home vs UMASS 1
At Richmond 67

Ohio did lose to Winthrop (RPI 267) last year at home. I am always extra weary of road games as well. (Morgan State for example)
12-06-2013 12:01 PM
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