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Louisville opens as a 7 point favorite.
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rosewater Offline
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Louisville opens as a 7 point favorite.
But it is now down to 3.5
 
12-01-2013 04:02 PM
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Bearcatbdub Offline
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RE: Louisville opens as a 7 point favorite.
Wow.
 
12-01-2013 04:50 PM
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50Cent Offline
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RE: Louisville opens as a 7 point favorite.
I'd have taken the 7 all day long
 
12-01-2013 05:08 PM
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Bearcats#1 Offline
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RE: Louisville opens as a 7 point favorite.
(12-01-2013 05:08 PM)50Cent Wrote:  I'd have taken the 7 all day long

word
 
12-01-2013 05:13 PM
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vabearcat Offline
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RE: Louisville opens as a 7 point favorite.
None of that stuff matters. Game is on the field
 
12-01-2013 10:52 PM
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Eastside_J Away
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RE: Louisville opens as a 7 point favorite.
(12-01-2013 05:13 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  
(12-01-2013 05:08 PM)50Cent Wrote:  I'd have taken the 7 all day long

word

Looks like you guys weren't the only ones who thought that way.

Man - I am no veteran sports better by any means, but that seems like a big quick line shift.
 
12-01-2013 11:17 PM
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Cataclysmo Offline
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RE: Louisville opens as a 7 point favorite.
What is UCF opening line
 
12-01-2013 11:42 PM
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BearcatMan Online
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RE: Louisville opens as a 7 point favorite.
(12-01-2013 11:17 PM)Eastside_J Wrote:  
(12-01-2013 05:13 PM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  
(12-01-2013 05:08 PM)50Cent Wrote:  I'd have taken the 7 all day long

word

Looks like you guys weren't the only ones who thought that way.

Man - I am no veteran sports better by any means, but that seems like a big quick line shift.

A 3.5 point swing in 90 minutes after open is a HUGE swing. There must be a ton of money on UC at this point.
 
12-02-2013 01:25 AM
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uccheese Offline
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RE: Louisville opens as a 7 point favorite.
Do you have a link or something? Going from 7 to 3.5 would be almost historic.

By open, do you mean this week or do you mean like some kind of game of year prop from preseason?
 
12-02-2013 07:40 AM
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rosewater Offline
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RE: Louisville opens as a 7 point favorite.
(12-02-2013 07:40 AM)uccheese Wrote:  Do you have a link or something? Going from 7 to 3.5 would be almost historic.

By open, do you mean this week or do you mean like some kind of game of year prop from preseason?

If you notice from the below link, it gives an opening line and the individual las vegas books give their current line. I do not bet, but I check the lines to see others opinion about the game. I checked the line at 10 am on Sunday and the lines had moved. I am not sure when they are posted.
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-foot...las-vegas/
 
12-02-2013 09:08 AM
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rosewater Offline
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RE: Louisville opens as a 7 point favorite.
(12-01-2013 11:42 PM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  What is UCF opening line

There is no line yet. I assume it is due to Gilbert's uncertain status.
 
12-02-2013 09:10 AM
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rosewater Offline
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RE: Louisville opens as a 7 point favorite.
(12-01-2013 10:52 PM)vabearcat Wrote:  None of that stuff matters. Game is on the field

I disagree. It is evidence of something. Whether it is directly relevant is another story. I mean if you watched the Rutgers line earlier in the year, we started as a favorite and by the end of the week Rutgers was the favorite. We all know what happened.
 
12-02-2013 09:12 AM
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SuperFlyBCat Offline
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RE: Louisville opens as a 7 point favorite.
 
12-02-2013 01:33 PM
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ctipton Offline
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RE: Louisville opens as a 7 point favorite.
(12-02-2013 01:33 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  Why is SMU favored by 7?

http://www.covers.com/odds/football/coll...-odds.aspx

Makes absolutely no sense whtsoever, but I have been burned by covers.com before. I now believe in (mostly) The Gold Sheet.
 
12-02-2013 01:41 PM
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Pony94 Offline
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Louisville opens as a 7 point favorite.
(12-02-2013 01:33 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  Why is SMU favored by 7?

http://www.covers.com/odds/football/coll...-odds.aspx

Empty your 401k and bet it all
 
12-02-2013 01:48 PM
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Bearcat2012 Offline
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RE: Louisville opens as a 7 point favorite.
(12-02-2013 01:48 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  
(12-02-2013 01:33 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  Why is SMU favored by 7?

http://www.covers.com/odds/football/coll...-odds.aspx

Empty your 401k and bet it all

I won a few bucks on the UCF game last week when UCF was favored by 27 over USF. I may have to let it ride if that is in fact not a misprint. I would suspect its backwards
 
(This post was last modified: 12-02-2013 02:04 PM by Bearcat2012.)
12-02-2013 01:57 PM
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Pony94 Offline
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Louisville opens as a 7 point favorite.
(12-02-2013 01:57 PM)Bearcat2012 Wrote:  
(12-02-2013 01:48 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  
(12-02-2013 01:33 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  Why is SMU favored by 7?

http://www.covers.com/odds/football/coll...-odds.aspx

Empty your 401k and bet it all

I won a few bucks on the UCF game last week when USF was favored by 27. I may have to let it ride if that is in fact not a misprint. I would suspect its backwards

I was kidding NEVER bet on SMU
 
12-02-2013 01:59 PM
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BearcatBeta Offline
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RE: Louisville opens as a 7 point favorite.
SMU needs a win to be bowl eligible...
 
12-02-2013 01:59 PM
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Eastside_J Away
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RE: Louisville opens as a 7 point favorite.
I know lines part of the reason lines are set and move is to balance betting on each side.

But the incredibly frequent closeness to the end result (albeit in my very limited amount of knowledge and experience) seems to me almost miraculous.

People always say that it is their job to predict and forecast outcomes, but it still boggles my mind that in games filled with emotion, chance and limitless variables they can be so damn close, so frequently.

"Vegas knows"
 
12-02-2013 02:38 PM
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Overrated Offline
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RE: Louisville opens as a 7 point favorite.
(12-02-2013 02:38 PM)Eastside_J Wrote:  I know lines part of the reason lines are set and move is to balance betting on each side.

But the incredibly frequent closeness to the end result (albeit in my very limited amount of knowledge and experience) seems to me almost miraculous.

People always say that it is their job to predict and forecast outcomes, but it still boggles my mind that in games filled with emotion, chance and limitless variables they can be so damn close, so frequently.

"Vegas knows"

Vegas doesn't know. They do their best to get close. It's the market that knows (wisdom of crowds). There are people that are incredibly smart and use statistical modeling to win a lot of money if there is value in the line. That is what prompts lines to shift. Fortunately for the books, there are very few that do this well (although they have the most money). There are far more idiots out there who love to bet favorites or brand name teams.

Either way, the closing line at a reputable sports book is the best predictive tool out there for a game. That doesn't mean that the underdog won't win or there won't be results that don't come anywhere close to the line. You need a large sample size to evaluate this stuff. But all those fluke variables you mentioned go out the window when the sample size gets big enough.
 
12-02-2013 02:47 PM
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