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Sunday CFB computer ratings watch thread
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texd Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Sunday CFB computer ratings watch thread
(12-01-2013 02:14 PM)At Ease Wrote:  I question the ability to see the big picture in those who think this should be left up to a coin flip. It's extremely important for the conference that its best team represent the league for the few games that most fans will actually watch C-USA (Champ game, Liberty Bowl).

(12-01-2013 02:31 PM)At Ease Wrote:  I've seen multiple posts proposing a coinflip or predetermined site on here and the CUSA board that I've addressed here because this seems to be our current thread on the subject of CUSA CG hosting. I'm sorry you haven't seen them, but spare us the strawman, as nothing was fabricated.

Yet your post clearly ties the coin flip to choosing the best team. The coin flip proposed was for location, not for what team represented the conference in either the championship game or as the champion.
(This post was last modified: 12-01-2013 02:36 PM by texd.)
12-01-2013 02:35 PM
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Herdfan1972 Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Sunday CFB computer ratings watch thread
(12-01-2013 02:14 PM)At Ease Wrote:  The system worked, Marshall was clearly the better team if you look at the schedule and the box scores, and note how close they were to going 12-0 and us 6-6. Now it's up to us to be the better team next weekend.

I question the ability to see the big picture in those who think this should be left up to a coin flip. It's extremely important for the conference that its best team represent the league for the few games that most fans will actually watch C-USA (Champ game, Liberty Bowl).

For some reason, whenever we play Ohio we find a way to lose. I think we've had about 13 turnovers the last 3 times we've played them. Against Virginia Tech, we should've beat them but a block FG, missed FG in OT and a block punt for TD at the beginning killed us. In addition that game was played in a monsoon. Against MTSU, the ghost of last years defense showed up and haunted us. No way in hell that team should've put 51 PTs on the board. TD on last play of game beat us.
(This post was last modified: 12-01-2013 02:36 PM by Herdfan1972.)
12-01-2013 02:36 PM
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Orange County Owl Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Sunday CFB computer ratings watch thread
(12-01-2013 02:07 PM)Herdfan1972 Wrote:  If it's in Huntington Marshall will win by 25. In Houston I'd say Marshall wins by 13. I didn't see much from your defense that would be able to slow ours down. Turnovers is the way to beat us. Your offense didn't show me much against Tulane. And I don't think Tulane was that good of a team. The must've hit the lottery against ECU.

It doesn't surprise me that you think that.
12-01-2013 02:37 PM
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At Ease Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Sunday CFB computer ratings watch thread
(12-01-2013 02:35 PM)texd Wrote:  Yet your post clearly ties the coin flip to choosing the best team. The coin flip proposed was for location, not for what team represented the conference in either the championship game or as the champion.

I think it's pretty clear that home field advantage factors heavily in the latter.
12-01-2013 02:39 PM
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OwlMom15 Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Sunday CFB computer ratings watch thread
Wow this is just crap. West Virginia....goodness. We just need to take care of business.
12-01-2013 02:44 PM
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georgewebb Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Sunday CFB computer ratings watch thread
(12-01-2013 02:22 PM)texd Wrote:  
(12-01-2013 02:14 PM)At Ease Wrote:  I question the ability to see the big picture in those who think this should be left up to a coin flip. It's extremely important for the conference that its best team represent the league for the few games that most fans will actually watch C-USA (Champ game, Liberty Bowl).

Who said a coin flip should determine which team is in the championship game or Liberty bowl?

[Image: Strawman.jpg]

I said it, sort of: I said that (given that the difference in the computer rankings is statistically insignificant and that the coaches poll is so obviously subject to self-serving manipulation) deciding by a coin flip would be no less rational*, and would have the added virtue of not being manipulable.

*Or to put it another way: given the facts of the case, there is no real basis for believing that the outcome of this process this year will yield a "better team to represent the league" than would the outcome of a coin flip or of some historical determinant.

If your goal is to have the illusion of rationality, then by all means go with some convoluted and easily rigged scheme that the great unwashed can pretend is rational. And I recognize that, in practice, the illusion of rationality may be what really matters (people being what they are). The popular acceptance of the hawkeye system in tennis is founded on this very principle: it doesn't really matter whether the system is all that accurate; what matters is that it produces images that are absurdly precise, and the masses routinely equate precision with accuracy.

While I stand by those observations, I certainly expect others to disagree -- and I acknowledged as much in my post. But I would question the ability to see the REALLY big picture (including the frailty of human thinking) on the part of anyone who thinks that the points I advanced are completely meritless.
12-01-2013 02:48 PM
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waltgreenberg Offline
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Post: #47
RE: Sunday CFB computer ratings watch thread
(12-01-2013 01:19 PM)Herdfan1972 Wrote:  CBS has projected BCS standings

MU is at 33
Rice is at 55

Id so, that's absurd. One home win should not result in such a large one-week swing; especially with the other team winning, as well.
12-01-2013 02:50 PM
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OwlMom15 Offline
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Post: #48
RE: Sunday CFB computer ratings watch thread
(12-01-2013 02:50 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(12-01-2013 01:19 PM)Herdfan1972 Wrote:  CBS has projected BCS standings

MU is at 33
Rice is at 55

Id so, that's absurd. One home win should not result in such a large one-week swing; especially with the other team winning, as well.

I know....it is just a good old boy system. Just wrong
12-01-2013 03:07 PM
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clarkent Offline
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Post: #49
RE: Sunday CFB computer ratings watch thread
(12-01-2013 12:40 PM)texd Wrote:  And, Marshall picks up 13 (13!) votes in the Coaches' Poll, which may well render the computer BCS ratings moot.

and 10 points in the Harris Poll (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/footbal...ls/harris/)
12-01-2013 03:10 PM
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temchugh Offline
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Post: #50
RE: Sunday CFB computer ratings watch thread
Seems to me that the host should be decided by the computer rankings alone, ignoring the coaches poll (which is subject to manipulation). The PDF released last week by the conference suggested that this would be the case, although the wording was far from clear. It will certainly be a minor scandle if it comes out that all the Marshall votes came from folks with some Marshall connection.

Of course, if the situation were reversed, I guess I might be able to come up with some defense of the coaches poll. I'm not sure what that would be, though.
12-01-2013 03:10 PM
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Caelligh Offline
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Post: #51
RE: Sunday CFB computer ratings watch thread
(12-01-2013 02:48 PM)georgewebb Wrote:  
(12-01-2013 02:22 PM)texd Wrote:  Who said a coin flip should determine which team is in the championship game or Liberty bowl?

I said it, sort of: I said that (given that the difference in the computer rankings is statistically insignificant and that the coaches poll is so obviously subject to self-serving manipulation) deciding by a coin flip would be no less rational*, and would have the added virtue of not being manipulable...

...While I stand by those observations, I certainly expect others to disagree -- and I acknowledged as much in my post....

I think you are spot on, George. Complexity does not necessarily improve accuracy. A coin flip in this case would be fair, transparent, and easily understood by observers. By the time you get to the 3rd or 4th level of a tie-breaking protocol, you've already established that the teams are fairly even in skill and equally worthy of hosting the game.
12-01-2013 03:11 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #52
RE: Sunday CFB computer ratings watch thread
Why not rock, paper, scissors?
12-01-2013 03:16 PM
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temchugh Offline
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Post: #53
RE: Sunday CFB computer ratings watch thread
The BCS poll has no written procedures for determining beyond the top 25 teams. It is far from clear how or if "getting votes" should be handled. The CBS long list is not official, just their extrapolation. I hope the Rice officials are lobbying the conference.
12-01-2013 03:18 PM
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At Ease Offline
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Post: #54
RE: Sunday CFB computer ratings watch thread
(12-01-2013 03:10 PM)clarkent Wrote:  and 10 points in the Harris Poll (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/footbal...ls/harris/)

Hopefully this will end the complaining..
12-01-2013 03:21 PM
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Herdfan1972 Offline
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Post: #55
RE: Sunday CFB computer ratings watch thread
(12-01-2013 03:10 PM)temchugh Wrote:  Seems to me that the host should be decided by the computer rankings alone, ignoring the coaches poll (which is subject to manipulation). The PDF released last week by the conference suggested that this would be the case, although the wording was far from clear. It will certainly be a minor scandle if it comes out that all the Marshall votes came from folks with some Marshall connection.

Of course, if the situation were reversed, I guess I might be able to come up with some defense of the coaches poll. I'm not sure what that would be, though.

What it boils down to was this past weeks games. We blew ECU away while they were ranked 33 while you all struggled to beat a Tulane team that was ranked in the 70's. And if there was a Marshall connection maybe your coach didn't lobby enough to grab some votes.
12-01-2013 03:24 PM
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JOwl Offline
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Post: #56
RE: Sunday CFB computer ratings watch thread
(12-01-2013 03:24 PM)Herdfan1972 Wrote:  
(12-01-2013 03:10 PM)temchugh Wrote:  Seems to me that the host should be decided by the computer rankings alone, ignoring the coaches poll (which is subject to manipulation). The PDF released last week by the conference suggested that this would be the case, although the wording was far from clear. It will certainly be a minor scandle if it comes out that all the Marshall votes came from folks with some Marshall connection.

Of course, if the situation were reversed, I guess I might be able to come up with some defense of the coaches poll. I'm not sure what that would be, though.

What it boils down to was this past weeks games. We blew ECU away while they were ranked 33 while you all struggled to beat a Tulane team that was ranked in the 70's. And if there was a Marshall connection maybe your coach didn't lobby enough to grab some votes.

It's beyond me how one win over a team that was unranked (but receiving votes) in one poll and completely out of the rest of the polls makes anyone see you as a top-25 team.
Or perhaps Holliday voted you 16.
12-01-2013 03:34 PM
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waltgreenberg Offline
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Post: #57
RE: Sunday CFB computer ratings watch thread
(12-01-2013 03:24 PM)Herdfan1972 Wrote:  
(12-01-2013 03:10 PM)temchugh Wrote:  Seems to me that the host should be decided by the computer rankings alone, ignoring the coaches poll (which is subject to manipulation). The PDF released last week by the conference suggested that this would be the case, although the wording was far from clear. It will certainly be a minor scandle if it comes out that all the Marshall votes came from folks with some Marshall connection.

Of course, if the situation were reversed, I guess I might be able to come up with some defense of the coaches poll. I'm not sure what that would be, though.

What it boils down to was this past weeks games. We blew ECU away while they were ranked 33 while you all struggled to beat a Tulane team that was ranked in the 70's. And if there was a Marshall connection maybe your coach didn't lobby enough to grab some votes.

As other have conjunctured, I very much doubt Bailiff lobbied at all for votes, as that is not his style; especially recognizing that neither Marshall or Rice deserves a single Top 25 vote on merit alone.

BTW, though the score was close, Rice dominated Tulane for three-quarters of the game...and the domination was absolute. Again, we're talking about two teams that are pretty close to equal if you take all things into consideration. Yes, Marshall has the lone signature win, but they've also played to a much easier SoS.
12-01-2013 03:34 PM
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Wiessman Away
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Post: #58
RE: Sunday CFB computer ratings watch thread
(12-01-2013 03:11 PM)Caelligh Wrote:  
(12-01-2013 02:48 PM)georgewebb Wrote:  
(12-01-2013 02:22 PM)texd Wrote:  Who said a coin flip should determine which team is in the championship game or Liberty bowl?

I said it, sort of: I said that (given that the difference in the computer rankings is statistically insignificant and that the coaches poll is so obviously subject to self-serving manipulation) deciding by a coin flip would be no less rational*, and would have the added virtue of not being manipulable...

...While I stand by those observations, I certainly expect others to disagree -- and I acknowledged as much in my post....

I think you are spot on, George. Complexity does not necessarily improve accuracy. A coin flip in this case would be fair, transparent, and easily understood by observers. By the time you get to the 3rd or 4th level of a tie-breaking protocol, you've already established that the teams are fairly even in skill and equally worthy of hosting the game.

I disagree. When you have two teams that, in spite of being in the same conference, have very little in overlap, getting to the third level of a tiebreaker between divisions is no sure indication of parity. This is a function of conferences growing in size.

Criterion 1: Record - Because one division can be much stronger than the other in a conference, records may not reflect the actual strength of the teams. For example, had Rice beaten North Texas, I could still make a reasonable argument that Marshall is better. So would home field for 8-0 Rice have been "fair"?

Criterion 2: Head-to-head result - Unless there is an exception for a rivalry or a scheduling quirk, teams in different divisions play each other in the regular season a maximum of twice in each four year period. Head-to-head is quite often not applicable.

It was very simple for us to get to the third level of this process without determining anything about the teams involved, and even then, it could have easily ended at the second determining factor with an outcome that would have understandably rankled some people. Rice has nothing to complain about in this case. A coin flip would not have been equitable, and though the polls are not the ideal mechanism for solving this, they did a better job than a coin flip would have.

Also, in the polls, I think that there is an assumption that any two coaches will both have their buddies voting for them; teams are thus only separated when voters who are not tied to the schools in question submit their rankings. That being case, Marshall got the votes from somewhere because they probably deserved them in the eyes of a few "neutral" observers. That will suffice for resolving this scenario.

All this being said, I agree with the statement that complexity does not necessarily improve accuracy. That is for certain.
(This post was last modified: 12-01-2013 04:12 PM by Wiessman.)
12-01-2013 03:36 PM
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waltgreenberg Offline
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Post: #59
RE: Sunday CFB computer ratings watch thread
(12-01-2013 03:34 PM)JOwl Wrote:  
(12-01-2013 03:24 PM)Herdfan1972 Wrote:  
(12-01-2013 03:10 PM)temchugh Wrote:  Seems to me that the host should be decided by the computer rankings alone, ignoring the coaches poll (which is subject to manipulation). The PDF released last week by the conference suggested that this would be the case, although the wording was far from clear. It will certainly be a minor scandle if it comes out that all the Marshall votes came from folks with some Marshall connection.

Of course, if the situation were reversed, I guess I might be able to come up with some defense of the coaches poll. I'm not sure what that would be, though.

What it boils down to was this past weeks games. We blew ECU away while they were ranked 33 while you all struggled to beat a Tulane team that was ranked in the 70's. And if there was a Marshall connection maybe your coach didn't lobby enough to grab some votes.

It's beyond me how one win over a team that was unranked (but receiving votes) in one poll and completely out of the rest of the polls makes anyone see you as a top-25 team.
Or perhaps Holliday voted you 16.

It's also absurd how one win against a non-Top 25 team at home can catapult you 30+ spots in the ranking-- and gain 20 spots on Rice, despite the fact that Rice also won this weekend.
12-01-2013 03:37 PM
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Herdfan1972 Offline
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Post: #60
RE: Sunday CFB computer ratings watch thread
(12-01-2013 03:34 PM)JOwl Wrote:  
(12-01-2013 03:24 PM)Herdfan1972 Wrote:  
(12-01-2013 03:10 PM)temchugh Wrote:  Seems to me that the host should be decided by the computer rankings alone, ignoring the coaches poll (which is subject to manipulation). The PDF released last week by the conference suggested that this would be the case, although the wording was far from clear. It will certainly be a minor scandle if it comes out that all the Marshall votes came from folks with some Marshall connection.

Of course, if the situation were reversed, I guess I might be able to come up with some defense of the coaches poll. I'm not sure what that would be, though.

What it boils down to was this past weeks games. We blew ECU away while they were ranked 33 while you all struggled to beat a Tulane team that was ranked in the 70's. And if there was a Marshall connection maybe your coach didn't lobby enough to grab some votes.

It's beyond me how one win over a team that was unranked (but receiving votes) in one poll and completely out of the rest of the polls makes anyone see you as a top-25 team.
Or perhaps Holliday voted you 16.
Who knows, but there is someone out there who is convinced we are. Maybe Holgorsen from WVU threw us a vote. You know Doc voted for us. We won't know unless they release who voted for who. Is there a site that has that information? I recall that they use to release that information.
(This post was last modified: 12-01-2013 03:38 PM by Herdfan1972.)
12-01-2013 03:37 PM
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