RE: MACC Predictions
Bowling Green's D is for real. Buffalo averages 33 per game, held to 7. Only Indiana scored more than 25 against them, and their offense manages to get 35 per game. They can run the ball (205 ypg) and pass it (257 ypg), so their offense is balanced. Their QB doesn't turn it over. Their FG kicker is good. This is a good MAC team, with no glaring weaknesses. They've earned this trip, no question, and are a dangerous foe.
You've got to figure BG will try to control the clock, run the ball, shorten the game, keep the ball away from Lynch. It won't be the first time a team has tried to do that to NIU. NIU is just too explosive for that strategy to work, in my opinion. If BG comes up with a few stops and puts up some good drives against a decent bend-but-don't-break NIU defense, this game will be close and hard to watch. Especially if NIU turns the ball over at all, which would be a surprise because NIU has won the turnover battle convincingly this year and even when Lynch is off throwing, he still doesn't risk turnovers often. Lynch's meltdown factor is...well, the anti-Cutler, basically.
NIU's offense is just too good to be stopped from moving the ball for an entire game. BG might slow NIU down and force some punts and FG's, but unless the penalty or turnover monsters gobble up NIU, Lynch will find a way to get NIU into the high 30's. Who knows what's going on with Sims....but he does have a decent record in the MACC, right? Hopefully it won't come down to FG's, regardless.
With all due respect, the only good wins for BG are Buffalo and I guess Ohio. That doesn't mean they aren't good, it just indicates they aren't elite, to me. NIU is elite (ask the captain of the S.S. Bronco), but anybody can be beaten on any day, just look around college football.
My gut (which produces inaccurate predictions as well as it produces something I deposit in the toilet) feels like this one starts a bit slow, is a one possession type game at the half, then NIU pulls away in the 2nd half and people complain the win wasn't impressive enough and now NIU will never get to face Alabama.
NIU 41, BG 24.
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