(11-28-2013 09:45 PM)banker Wrote:  I disagree. Most people that bet any serious money on sports are very knowledgeable. Therefor the opening line has to also be extremely accurate as to how the oddsmaker believes the actual game will score, especially with teams like Marshall and ECU that won't draw large homer bets. Professional gamblers that will bet a game like this don't bring any emotion to it. They set their own lines and then look for lines that deviate from their projections.

On paper this is a pick em game me. Marshall was getting 3 for home field. The move in the line was bettors honoring the fact that Marshall is 5-0 ATS at home.

I am not talking about the professional gambler…While their money can have an impact on the lines the books make a majority of their money off of the average John Q. Public bettor. Also I know the phrase of "equal action" on both sides is the general understanding of what a books goal is in regards to a game line and in general terms that is a fairly good description of the goal as that assures them winnings either way as they will collect the "Vig" as profit after payouts.

But make no mistake these guys are in the business to make money and if the see an opportunity to take a informed and calculated risk and make "big money" they will do so…Many people have this view of a "handicapper" for the books as a guy sitting in front of a computer and running all of these complicated numbers and statistics to set a line..Sure there is some of this in setting a line but some of it is done from non-measureable factors such as how the public responds to certain teams. In reality it is the betting public that determines that actual line for a game not the handicappers.

So again..It is not always what Vegas thinks will happen in the game. A portion of it is what Vegas thinks the public thinks about a game and then adjusting the line as money is bet if needed. If you do not believe me do a little research on the New England Patriots over the last decade and how Vegas had to approach setting lines for their games.

My point is that many people think that there is some exact science that goes into setting lines and that is not always the case. If books truly had that formula they would never lose on a game. Also many people think that a book will always move a line to get equal action on both sides…That is not true, if they feel damn good about one side or the other of the line they will not move the line as much in response to the action. Also we have to keep in mind they put a lot more focus on some games than they do others. Some games for them are no doubt about getting equal action on both sides so they are assured of profit on the vig.

Honestly I do not care if you agree or disagree…I have no idea what your experience is with betting. Hell there are a lot of professional bettors who do not even agree on how to approach trying to make a living off of the books. All I know is I have been studying, researching, and betting for the better part of 20 years at a decent level. I have won a lot of money and I have lost my share of money as well. I would not try to describe myself as a professional sport bettor as I do have a career outside of betting but I am just about as close as you can get.