Palm may know his computer programming, but it appears he may not have taken earth science. Catastrophism refers to events that occur suddenly, but almost always as a result of a myriad of interrelated events both past and present. Examples include volcanic eruptions, mudslides, breakage of natural levees, and tsunamis.

The tsunami in question is NIU's big spike this week in the computer polls. Let's look at the events that caused their jump.

#1 NIU is now 11-0. Certainly every poll rewards wins over losses. It's possible some of them award a bonus as a team's win-loss differential increases.

#2 NIU won on the road. Some rating systems may award a bonus for road victories.

#3 NIU beat Toledo. Every poll certainly rewards teams that defeat schools with good records. A bonus factor is likely involved here as well.

#4 NIU's prior opponents won this week. Iowa, EIU, CMU and others have been improving their records. Bonus, bonus, bonus.

#5 Teams above NIU in the last poll lost this week. While some of the outcomes (such as LSU beating Texas A&M) hurt NIU in the human polls, it wound up helping the Huskies in the computer ratings.

Fresno State, on the other hand, didn't get a pc bump at all. Because...

#1 They beat a New Mexico team with a bad record. Remember, the BCS doesn't allow the computer polls to factor in margin of victory.

#2 Fresno's best victories were against teams who lost last week. See Rutgers and Boise State.

#3 While one may think Fresno's rating shouldn't be impacted by the Boise State/San Diego State game (since they played both), it can have an effect IF extra bonus is applied when wins are against teams with better records. In other words, beating two teams that are 8-3 and 6-5 (14-8 total) is better than beating the same two teams who happen to be 7-4 and 7-4 (14-8 total). In a twisted way, the MAC consisting of "haves" and "have nots" is better than everyone beating up on one another. Wrap your head around that possibility.

Some ratings may also factor in WHEN the games are played. For instance, defeating a good team early may not count exactly the same as beating a good team late in the season.

So why couldn't Palm predict the big NIU jump? He doesn't know the actual algorithms used by the computer pollsters to determine their rankings. Nor does anyone else.

Very well put.

Great analysis. Okie Chip...what do you see happening this week? Will NIU be hurt by playing a hapless row team? You should send your resume to CBS Sports...Palm is more wrong than right it seems.

It's a lot easier analyzing the results than predicting the outcomes. Palm likely has most of the ratings systems figured out; but not the nuances. Otherwise he could accurately predict them 100% of the time. He is indeed correct most of the time because many of the nuances usually mostly cancel themselves out. It didn't happen last year when NIU emerged with an auto-bid by drawing a Royal Flush (i.e, every team directly above them losing in the last weeks) and drawing a straight flush this past weekend.

But since you asked for it, here's a prediction; one that I highly doubt will be spot on.

NIU should defeat hapless WMU convincingly, which ordinarily would drop the Huskies a fair amount with the computers. It will likely not drop much, however, due to the slight benefit of other teams' wins and losses canceling out most of the decrease.

Fresno should handle San Jose State, which should raise the Bulldogs a bit, with an additional bump due to the results of the other teams. But NIU will probably still have breathing distance between them with the computer polls.

I also expect as many or more teams wind up wedged between a higher rated Fresno versus Northern in the human polls. As a result, I'm anticipating the two teams to be only a sliver apart when the next BCS rankings come out.

Assuming both NIU and Fresno remain unbeaten, it could very well come down to an "eye-test" of the voters from watching the MACC and the MWCC games.