Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Post Reply 
Week 14 Watch
Author Message
Bookmark and Share
NIUHuskie Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 2,328
Joined: Sep 2004
Reputation: 8
I Root For: NIU
Location:
Post: #21
RE: Week 14 Watch
(11-25-2013 08:49 PM)niusfactuary Wrote:  
(11-25-2013 04:37 PM)NIUHuskie Wrote:  
(11-25-2013 04:28 PM)niusfactuary Wrote:  
(11-25-2013 04:05 PM)HuskiemobileMan Wrote:  
(11-25-2013 01:33 PM)NIUHuskie Wrote:  Doing a little analysis between the ups/downs of human polls compared to computers (keeping in mind that all the computers together account for 1/3 of the vote), I came up with the following in order of importance:

1. NIU (-33.5) over WMU
2. Fresno State (-10) lose at San Jose State
3. Arizona State (-10.5) lose to Arizona
4. LSU (-24.5) lose to Arkansas
5. Wisconsin (-23) lose to Penn State
6. UCF (-26) lose to South Florida
7. Texas A&M (+4) lose at Missouri
8. UCLA (+3.5) lose at USC
9. All of our previous/future opponents winning
10. Fresno State's previous/future opponents losing
Totally Agree

Wisconsin losing to Penn State will not be helpful at all. Any gains in coaches/Harris poll votes will be offset by Wisconsin dropping below Fresno in all but one of the computers. It would be better if Wisconsin won. UCLA losing wouldn't help us either, as we are well above them in the human polls, and they would drop below Fresno in the computers.

Human poll gains (2/3) are more important than computer ranking losses (1/3).

That's nice and all, but moving up 1 "spot" in the coaches and 1 "spot in the harris is worth a total of about .0075, whereas Fresno moving up one spot in 4 computers is worth about .01

Your math is wrong:
One "spot" (62 votes) in the coaches poll is .04 - a single vote is .000645
One "spot" (104 votes) in the coaches poll is .04 - a single vote is .0003846
One "spot" in one computer is .01
One "spot" (in all 4 computers) is .04

So, moving up 1 "spot" in the coaches and 1 "spot" in the Harris is worth a total of .08, whereas Fresno moving up one spot in 4 computers is worth .04
11-25-2013 09:12 PM
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
niusfactuary Offline
All American
*

Posts: 3,792
Joined: Nov 2005
Reputation: 41
I Root For: NIU,Cubs,Bears
Location: Bloomington, IL

DonatorsSurvivor Runner-up
Post: #22
RE: Week 14 Watch
(11-25-2013 09:12 PM)NIUHuskie Wrote:  
(11-25-2013 08:49 PM)niusfactuary Wrote:  
(11-25-2013 04:37 PM)NIUHuskie Wrote:  
(11-25-2013 04:28 PM)niusfactuary Wrote:  
(11-25-2013 04:05 PM)HuskiemobileMan Wrote:  Totally Agree

Wisconsin losing to Penn State will not be helpful at all. Any gains in coaches/Harris poll votes will be offset by Wisconsin dropping below Fresno in all but one of the computers. It would be better if Wisconsin won. UCLA losing wouldn't help us either, as we are well above them in the human polls, and they would drop below Fresno in the computers.

Human poll gains (2/3) are more important than computer ranking losses (1/3).

That's nice and all, but moving up 1 "spot" in the coaches and 1 "spot in the harris is worth a total of about .0075, whereas Fresno moving up one spot in 4 computers is worth about .01

Your math is wrong:
One "spot" (62 votes) in the coaches poll is .04 - a single vote is .000645
One "spot" (104 votes) in the coaches poll is .04 - a single vote is .0003846
One "spot" in one computer is .01
One "spot" (in all 4 computers) is .04

So, moving up 1 "spot" in the coaches and 1 "spot" in the Harris is worth a total of .08, whereas Fresno moving up one spot in 4 computers is worth .04

Here's the thing though, while there are 7 "spots" between us and Fresno

20 - 13

There's actually only about .15 between us...not .28. Since we have no idea how it's distributed, you have to assume equally, meaning 1 spot jump in the coaches is worth about .15/7 which is .02 at best, not .04. Harris is around the same... .1/5. So maybe not .0075, maybe it's worth .04/3 = .013. I was being conservative.
11-25-2013 09:19 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
MaddDawgz02 Offline
Banned

Posts: 40,735
Joined: Jan 2004
I Root For: any UT opponent
Location:
Post: #23
RE: Week 14 Watch
(11-25-2013 09:19 PM)niusfactuary Wrote:  
(11-25-2013 09:12 PM)NIUHuskie Wrote:  
(11-25-2013 08:49 PM)niusfactuary Wrote:  
(11-25-2013 04:37 PM)NIUHuskie Wrote:  
(11-25-2013 04:28 PM)niusfactuary Wrote:  Wisconsin losing to Penn State will not be helpful at all. Any gains in coaches/Harris poll votes will be offset by Wisconsin dropping below Fresno in all but one of the computers. It would be better if Wisconsin won. UCLA losing wouldn't help us either, as we are well above them in the human polls, and they would drop below Fresno in the computers.

Human poll gains (2/3) are more important than computer ranking losses (1/3).

That's nice and all, but moving up 1 "spot" in the coaches and 1 "spot in the harris is worth a total of about .0075, whereas Fresno moving up one spot in 4 computers is worth about .01

Your math is wrong:
One "spot" (62 votes) in the coaches poll is .04 - a single vote is .000645
One "spot" (104 votes) in the coaches poll is .04 - a single vote is .0003846
One "spot" in one computer is .01
One "spot" (in all 4 computers) is .04

So, moving up 1 "spot" in the coaches and 1 "spot" in the Harris is worth a total of .08, whereas Fresno moving up one spot in 4 computers is worth .04

Here's the thing though, while there are 7 "spots" between us and Fresno

20 - 13

There's actually only about .15 between us...not .28. Since we have no idea how it's distributed, you have to assume equally, meaning 1 spot jump in the coaches is worth about .15/7 which is .02 at best, not .04. Harris is around the same... .1/5. So maybe not .0075, maybe it's worth .04/3 = .013. I was being conservative.

I love numbers but you guys just made my head explode hahah.

An easy way to think of it, is 0.01 BCS points = 47 Coaches votes = 79 Harris votes
11-25-2013 10:54 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Citizen's Arrest Offline
Bench Warmer
*

Posts: 133
Joined: Jan 2012
Reputation: 0
I Root For: NIU
Location:
Post: #24
RE: Week 14 Watch
Iowa up 14-3 at half on ABC
MAC East Championship Bowling Green at Buffalo on ESPNU starting now
IHSA 1a, 2a, 3a, and 4a State Football Championship games at Huskie Stadium on Comcast Sportsnet. Great pub!
11-29-2013 01:30 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
NIURedBlack Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 5,665
Joined: Dec 2003
Reputation: 17
I Root For: NIU Huskies
Location: Chicago
Post: #25
RE: Week 14 Watch
Huge choke by Arkansas

Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk
11-29-2013 06:15 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
NIUSox10 Offline
All American
*

Posts: 3,923
Joined: Sep 2011
Reputation: 13
I Root For: NIU, White Sox
Location:
Post: #26
RE: Week 14 Watch
ugh Arkansas......
11-29-2013 06:17 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Citizen's Arrest Offline
Bench Warmer
*

Posts: 133
Joined: Jan 2012
Reputation: 0
I Root For: NIU
Location:
Post: #27
RE: Week 14 Watch
What a Black Friday! To bad Arkansas blew it. Now we just want teams ranked better than us to lose so we move up. Already can not wait for next Friday! A three peat MAC title would be sweet enough, but now 99% chance of BCS with a win as well. Unreal
11-29-2013 07:54 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
HuskieJoe Offline
All American
*

Posts: 2,942
Joined: Aug 2004
Reputation: 16
I Root For:
Location:
Post: #28
RE: Week 14 Watch
UCF winning ugly at home, up 13-6 over 2-8 rival USF at start of 2nd half. The UCF defense has USF under 100 yards but 3 UCF turnovers keeping USF in the game.
11-29-2013 10:10 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
NIUSox10 Offline
All American
*

Posts: 3,923
Joined: Sep 2011
Reputation: 13
I Root For: NIU, White Sox
Location:
Post: #29
RE: Week 14 Watch
Oregon ST just went up over #13 Oregon, we may be moving up to the 10-12 range come Sunday!
11-29-2013 10:33 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
NIUSox10 Offline
All American
*

Posts: 3,923
Joined: Sep 2011
Reputation: 13
I Root For: NIU, White Sox
Location:
Post: #30
RE: Week 14 Watch
(11-29-2013 10:33 PM)NIUSox10 Wrote:  Oregon ST just went up over #13 Oregon, we may be moving up to the 10-12 range come Sunday!

take that back.... OR ST scored too quick and left wayyy to much time for Oregon and played soft coverage.

Oregon went up again with 30 seconds left.
11-29-2013 10:43 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
MaddDawgz02 Offline
Banned

Posts: 40,735
Joined: Jan 2004
I Root For: any UT opponent
Location:
Post: #31
RE: Week 14 Watch
I would like to apologize to everyone on this board for my BCS posts the past several months. I felt like there was an injustice going on but I got carried away, I went over the top with it and got a wee bit carried away. Beat BG! How odd is it that the original BCS buster in NIU (not getting there but leading the discussion in 2003) who lost their dream season to BG, gets to play BG with a chance to clinch in the final year of the BCS. Pretty amazing symmetry.
11-30-2013 12:17 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
The Frisky Biscuit Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 10,250
Joined: Jan 2010
Reputation: 37
I Root For: Death
Location: The Ocean of Corn
Post: #32
RE: Week 14 Watch
(11-30-2013 12:17 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  I would like to apologize to everyone on this board for my BCS posts the past several months. I felt like there was an injustice going on but I got carried away, I went over the top with it and got a wee bit carried away. Beat BG! How odd is it that the original BCS buster in NIU (not getting there but leading the discussion in 2003) who lost their dream season to BG, gets to play BG with a chance to clinch in the final year of the BCS. Pretty amazing symmetry.

I'll tell you one thing....I respect your passion. Always have to let things play out.
11-30-2013 12:27 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Citizen's Arrest Offline
Bench Warmer
*

Posts: 133
Joined: Jan 2012
Reputation: 0
I Root For: NIU
Location:
Post: #33
RE: Week 14 Watch
I actually miss Bowling Green in the West Division. I felt like that was starting to become a rivalry. The underdog always seemed to win. Glad we face a different team from the East. Akron, Miami-Oh, Ohio, Kent State, and now Bowling Green. Next year bring on Buffalo.
11-30-2013 12:10 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
NIU17 Offline
All American
*

Posts: 4,093
Joined: Nov 2008
Reputation: 10
I Root For: NIU Huskies
Location:
Post: #34
RE: Week 14 Watch
(11-30-2013 12:27 AM)The Frisky Biscuit Wrote:  
(11-30-2013 12:17 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  I would like to apologize to everyone on this board for my BCS posts the past several months. I felt like there was an injustice going on but I got carried away, I went over the top with it and got a wee bit carried away. Beat BG! How odd is it that the original BCS buster in NIU (not getting there but leading the discussion in 2003) who lost their dream season to BG, gets to play BG with a chance to clinch in the final year of the BCS. Pretty amazing symmetry.

I'll tell you one thing....I respect your passion. Always have to let things play out.
Once Fresno lost, most of the other picks above change.
11-30-2013 12:27 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Citizen's Arrest Offline
Bench Warmer
*

Posts: 133
Joined: Jan 2012
Reputation: 0
I Root For: NIU
Location:
Post: #35
RE: Week 14 Watch
(11-30-2013 12:27 PM)NIU17 Wrote:  
(11-30-2013 12:27 AM)The Frisky Biscuit Wrote:  
(11-30-2013 12:17 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  I would like to apologize to everyone on this board for my BCS posts the past several months. I felt like there was an injustice going on but I got carried away, I went over the top with it and got a wee bit carried away. Beat BG! How odd is it that the original BCS buster in NIU (not getting there but leading the discussion in 2003) who lost their dream season to BG, gets to play BG with a chance to clinch in the final year of the BCS. Pretty amazing symmetry.

I'll tell you one thing....I respect your passion. Always have to let things play out.
Once Fresno lost, most of the other picks above change.

I made some changes. Deleted the MWC games, added other ranked games, and switched the A and M game.
11-30-2013 12:41 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
NIU8484 Offline
All American
*

Posts: 4,528
Joined: Jan 2013
Reputation: 7
I Root For: NIU
Location: Amnesia
Post: #36
RE: Week 14 Watch
Michigan looking good early! Braxton miller missed a few wide open receivers! 14-7 MICH!!
11-30-2013 12:42 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
NIUBBOY Offline
Bench Warmer
*

Posts: 182
Joined: Dec 2008
Reputation: 1
I Root For: NIU
Location:
Post: #37
RE: Week 14 Watch
Welcome back MD, how was your trip?

[
quote='MaddDawgz02' pid='10094439' dateline='1385788664']
I would like to apologize to everyone on this board for my BCS posts the past several months. I felt like there was an injustice going on but I got carried away, I went over the top with it and got a wee bit carried away. Beat BG! How odd is it that the original BCS buster in NIU (not getting there but leading the discussion in 2003) who lost their dream season to BG, gets to play BG with a chance to clinch in the final year of the BCS. Pretty amazing symmetry.
[/quote]
11-30-2013 12:42 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
MaddDawgz02 Offline
Banned

Posts: 40,735
Joined: Jan 2004
I Root For: any UT opponent
Location:
Post: #38
RE: Week 14 Watch
(11-30-2013 12:42 PM)NIUBBOY Wrote:  Welcome back MD, how was your trip?

[
quote='MaddDawgz02' pid='10094439' dateline='1385788664']
I would like to apologize to everyone on this board for my BCS posts the past several months. I felt like there was an injustice going on but I got carried away, I went over the top with it and got a wee bit carried away. Beat BG! How odd is it that the original BCS buster in NIU (not getting there but leading the discussion in 2003) who lost their dream season to BG, gets to play BG with a chance to clinch in the final year of the BCS. Pretty amazing symmetry.
[/quote]
LOL, nice
11-30-2013 12:47 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
MaddDawgz02 Offline
Banned

Posts: 40,735
Joined: Jan 2004
I Root For: any UT opponent
Location:
Post: #39
RE: Week 14 Watch
MACtion in full effect at Michigan Stadium
11-30-2013 12:54 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Citizen's Arrest Offline
Bench Warmer
*

Posts: 133
Joined: Jan 2012
Reputation: 0
I Root For: NIU
Location:
Post: #40
RE: Week 14 Watch
21-14 Michigan
3-0 Florida State, actually shocking
7-0 Michigan state
And not that it matters anymore. But 1-9 UConn is beating mighty future big10 Rutgers 14-7
11-30-2013 12:56 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2024 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2024 MyBB Group.