Analysis for NIU to keep above Fresno in BCS...
WEEK 14 (next week):
a) NIU to CRUSH WMU by over 30 points. No close game. No up by 10 at half, win by 20 or 21 at the end. NIU needs to send a message to voters as best they can. Voters are going to WANT to see NIU be lower than they are BCS-wise. Lynch needs to put on a show and look good, too. WMU's D isn't as bad as ya think. NIU needs to hit the ground running in the beginning as if it's the beginning of the 2nd half.
b) Iowa to win @Nebraska. This would put Iowa at 8-4, and resoundingly make NIU's biggest win much better than Fresno's. Well, biggest name on paper, probably, as...
c) Ball State to CRUSH Miami-OH. Would only be a shocker if that didn't happen.
d) Toledo to CRUSH @Akron. Akron can play teams tough (Michigan, NIU). Toledo needs to CRUSH them to keep their rankings as high as possible, and for the eyes of skeptical NIU voters who see a "Toledo 51 , Akron 14" score at the bottom of the screen repeated. Makes the previous week's NIU win over Toledo more resounding.
e) BGSU to solidly win @Buffalo; Miss-St to beat Ole Miss BGSU lost by only 1 pt to Miss St. Winning AT Buffalo would be a bigger win for BG. This would put BGSU as a tougher opponent going in to the MACC.
f) Wisconsin to Solidly Beat Penn State Central Florida's big OOC win is against Penn State. Wisconsin is a 24pt favorite which is a little too big. Wisconsin just needs to make a viewer understand that Penn State, yeah, sucks this year.
g) Fresno NOT to blow out @San Jose St Ya can't count on Fresno to LOSE. But you can hope for them to NOT blow out San Jose St, in a rivalry game, @San Jose. The line is 9pts, probably to jump up to 10.5 by game time. If Fresno wins by (merely) 10, that will keep them at bay in the votes.
h) Utah State NOT to blow out Wyoming Utah State can't lose, as that would have Boise going, even though Boise to computers isn't great, to voters by name, they are better (and that's where Fresno has a big advantage). But with all the angst about NIU jumping Fresno, we need as little excuse as possible in how people are feeling out how good one's opponents are. Let's hope Utah State needs the 4th Quarter to beat Wyoming, or Wyoming uses the 4th Quarter to make it pretty close. That way, when Fresno plays Utah State, they'll be FORCED to have to stomp them to make their case, as NIU will be playing a slightly better BGSU/Buffalo team @ 9-3.
i) Clemson to Win Solidly @South Carolina This would make UCF's close loss to SC look not so grand. This would keep UCF at bay, for voters who wanted to stop Fresno and/or NIU from going BCS Bowling.
j) Missouri to Beat Texas A&M Not only would making Johnny Football look average at best be good for Lynch's Heisman Finalist hopes, but Missouri beating Toledo in a non-blowout would help Toledo's stats, thus help NIU's indirectly.
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WEEK 15 (Championship Week):
a) NIU to beat BGSU/Buffalo CONVINCINGLY No OT win like last year. No complete stomp required, but win by 17 points or more. Don't have any "comebacks". Be up by 10+ at half, win by 17+ -- in the very least.
b) UCF NOT to blow out @SMU Not so necessary, BUT... SMU isn't quite as bad as one may think. They may be playing to be bowl-eligible, on Senior Day. UCF not impressing will be good, to hold back their votes. Getting beat by SMU would be AWESOME. It would knock UCF out of the BCS rankings race, but they'd STILL go to a BCS Bowl.
c) Louisville to Lose @Cinci Or maybe a barn-burner where they barely win, may be a more realistic hope. But if Louisville loses, computer-wise, it will make UCF's "best win" take a hit.
d) Fresno NOT to blow out Utah State Utah State will be 8-4 coming into this game (or Boise @ 8-4), while NIU will be playing 9-3 BGSU (or 9-3 Buffalo). We can hope for Fresno to lose, but, more realistically, not have Fresno succeed in convincing voters they're SO much better than they are. Utah State is not better than the winner of BGSU/Buffalo.
If all that stuff plays out -- NIU is going to a BCS Bowl.
(This post was last modified: 11-24-2013 10:20 PM by toddjnsn.)
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