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Analysis for NIU to keep above Fresno in BCS...
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toddjnsn Offline
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Post: #1
Analysis for NIU to keep above Fresno in BCS...
WEEK 14 (next week):
a) NIU to CRUSH WMU by over 30 points. No close game. No up by 10 at half, win by 20 or 21 at the end. NIU needs to send a message to voters as best they can. Voters are going to WANT to see NIU be lower than they are BCS-wise. Lynch needs to put on a show and look good, too. WMU's D isn't as bad as ya think. NIU needs to hit the ground running in the beginning as if it's the beginning of the 2nd half.

b) Iowa to win @Nebraska. This would put Iowa at 8-4, and resoundingly make NIU's biggest win much better than Fresno's. Well, biggest name on paper, probably, as...

c) Ball State to CRUSH Miami-OH. Would only be a shocker if that didn't happen.

d) Toledo to CRUSH @Akron. Akron can play teams tough (Michigan, NIU). Toledo needs to CRUSH them to keep their rankings as high as possible, and for the eyes of skeptical NIU voters who see a "Toledo 51 , Akron 14" score at the bottom of the screen repeated. Makes the previous week's NIU win over Toledo more resounding.

e) BGSU to solidly win @Buffalo; Miss-St to beat Ole Miss BGSU lost by only 1 pt to Miss St. Winning AT Buffalo would be a bigger win for BG. This would put BGSU as a tougher opponent going in to the MACC.

f) Wisconsin to Solidly Beat Penn State Central Florida's big OOC win is against Penn State. Wisconsin is a 24pt favorite which is a little too big. Wisconsin just needs to make a viewer understand that Penn State, yeah, sucks this year.

g) Fresno NOT to blow out @San Jose St Ya can't count on Fresno to LOSE. But you can hope for them to NOT blow out San Jose St, in a rivalry game, @San Jose. The line is 9pts, probably to jump up to 10.5 by game time. If Fresno wins by (merely) 10, that will keep them at bay in the votes.

h) Utah State NOT to blow out Wyoming Utah State can't lose, as that would have Boise going, even though Boise to computers isn't great, to voters by name, they are better (and that's where Fresno has a big advantage). But with all the angst about NIU jumping Fresno, we need as little excuse as possible in how people are feeling out how good one's opponents are. Let's hope Utah State needs the 4th Quarter to beat Wyoming, or Wyoming uses the 4th Quarter to make it pretty close. That way, when Fresno plays Utah State, they'll be FORCED to have to stomp them to make their case, as NIU will be playing a slightly better BGSU/Buffalo team @ 9-3.

i) Clemson to Win Solidly @South Carolina This would make UCF's close loss to SC look not so grand. This would keep UCF at bay, for voters who wanted to stop Fresno and/or NIU from going BCS Bowling.

j) Missouri to Beat Texas A&M Not only would making Johnny Football look average at best be good for Lynch's Heisman Finalist hopes, but Missouri beating Toledo in a non-blowout would help Toledo's stats, thus help NIU's indirectly.

---------

WEEK 15 (Championship Week):

a) NIU to beat BGSU/Buffalo CONVINCINGLY No OT win like last year. No complete stomp required, but win by 17 points or more. Don't have any "comebacks". Be up by 10+ at half, win by 17+ -- in the very least.

b) UCF NOT to blow out @SMU Not so necessary, BUT... SMU isn't quite as bad as one may think. They may be playing to be bowl-eligible, on Senior Day. UCF not impressing will be good, to hold back their votes. Getting beat by SMU would be AWESOME. It would knock UCF out of the BCS rankings race, but they'd STILL go to a BCS Bowl.

c) Louisville to Lose @Cinci Or maybe a barn-burner where they barely win, may be a more realistic hope. But if Louisville loses, computer-wise, it will make UCF's "best win" take a hit.

d) Fresno NOT to blow out Utah State Utah State will be 8-4 coming into this game (or Boise @ 8-4), while NIU will be playing 9-3 BGSU (or 9-3 Buffalo). We can hope for Fresno to lose, but, more realistically, not have Fresno succeed in convincing voters they're SO much better than they are. Utah State is not better than the winner of BGSU/Buffalo.

If all that stuff plays out -- NIU is going to a BCS Bowl.
(This post was last modified: 11-24-2013 10:20 PM by toddjnsn.)
11-24-2013 09:48 PM
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HuskieJWN Offline
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RE: Analysis for NIU to keep above Fresno in BCS...
I could be wrong but if Utah state lost, Boise would play Fresno.

I agree with most, but probably not the MACC. I don't know if they have to cruise too easily, but probably win by 10 or so. It is a neutral site.
11-24-2013 09:51 PM
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Enaiu Offline
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RE: Analysis for NIU to keep above Fresno in BCS...
(11-24-2013 09:48 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  WEEK 14 (next week):
d) Toledo to CRUSH @Akron. Akron can play teams tough (Michigan, NIU). Toledo needs to CRUSH them to keep their computer rankings high.

Correct me if I'm wrong.. But I thought computers weren't allowed to count Margin of Victory anymore... So as long as Toledo beats Akron, that's all that should matter.
11-24-2013 09:52 PM
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toddjnsn Offline
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RE: Analysis for NIU to keep above Fresno in BCS...
Quote:Correct me if I'm wrong.. But I thought computers weren't allowed to count Margin of Victory anymore... So as long as Toledo beats Akron, that's all that should matter.

True. My bad. I think some computer systems may, BUT mainly it's for the voters. Toledo being just a week prior, skpetical to NIU voters seeing a STOMP on their score ticker of Toledo 51, Akron 14 -- that would send the message that NIU beating them convincingly was legit.
11-24-2013 10:06 PM
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NIUslumo Offline
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Re: Analysis for NIU to keep above Fresno in BCS...
I'm not sold on Clemson winning... I think SC winning a close game is best. A Clemson win probably wedges SC betw Fresno and us. A close SC win prob keeps both ahead of Fresno on most ballots.

Need Mizz to win badly.
11-24-2013 10:10 PM
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Enaiu Offline
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RE: Analysis for NIU to keep above Fresno in BCS...
(11-24-2013 10:06 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  
Quote:Correct me if I'm wrong.. But I thought computers weren't allowed to count Margin of Victory anymore... So as long as Toledo beats Akron, that's all that should matter.

True. My bad. I think some computer systems may, BUT mainly it's for the voters. Toledo being just a week prior, skpetical to NIU voters seeing a STOMP on their score ticker of Toledo 51, Akron 14 -- that would send the message that NIU beating them convincingly was legit.

Indeed. A spank to Akron this week would be nice for Pollsters to see.
11-24-2013 10:11 PM
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toddjnsn Offline
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RE: Analysis for NIU to keep above Fresno in BCS...
Quote:I could be wrong but if Utah state lost, Boise would play Fresno.

You're right. We need Utah State to win (which they should) -- but not so well. They'd go to play Fresno, and they'd need to put up a good fight at least -- to keep Fresno down in voters' polls.

Quote:I agree with most, but probably not the MACC. I don't know if they have to cruise too easily, but probably win by 10 or so. It is a neutral site.

True. But for voters -- who look DOWN on NIU -- NIU needs to do more than just merely win. Winning by 17+ over a 9-3 BGSU, IMO, would send a message to voters that NIU winning is better than even Fresno beating Utah State in at least a somewhat close game.

Again, for NIU, the computers are going to have them take a hit playing WMU. Fresno will take a hit, but not as big of a hit, so Fresno will come closer in computers. But for the Championship games, a 9-3 BGSU will be BETTER than 8-4 Utah State. But to VOTERS, maybe not so much.

NIU needs a boost in Voters. The computer rankings will be in NIU's favor over Fresno at the end -- but not quite as much as right now. The VOTES is what NIU needs, really.
11-24-2013 10:13 PM
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The Frisky Biscuit Offline
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RE: Analysis for NIU to keep above Fresno in BCS...
Just win, baby. The dominoes will fall if they fall.
11-24-2013 10:14 PM
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toddjnsn Offline
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RE: Analysis for NIU to keep above Fresno in BCS...
Quote:I'm not sold on Clemson winning... I think SC winning a close game is best. A Clemson win probably wedges SC betw Fresno and us. A close SC win prob keeps both ahead of Fresno on most ballots.

But SC winning would push UCF up in the minds of voters. UCF BARELY lost to SC and should have won (they crapped in the 2nd half). This is a Fresno vs NIU vs UCF contest. :)

If Penn State loses Handily, going 6-6... and South Carolina loses to Clemson, going 9-3, UCF will have less weight to their barking about how good they "really" are. If South Carolina goes 10-2, beating Clemson -- UCF is looking better, as everyone's going to be analyzing UCF.
(This post was last modified: 11-24-2013 10:22 PM by toddjnsn.)
11-24-2013 10:17 PM
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sterling1man Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Analysis for NIU to keep above Fresno in BCS...
(11-24-2013 09:48 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  WEEK 14 (next week):
a) NIU to CRUSH WMU by over 30 points. No close game. No up by 10 at half, win by 20 or 21 at the end. NIU needs to send a message to voters as best they can. Voters are going to WANT to see NIU be lower than they are BCS-wise. Lynch needs to put on a show and look good, too. WMU's D isn't as bad as ya think. NIU needs to hit the ground running in the beginning as if it's the beginning of the 2nd half.

b) Iowa to win @Nebraska. This would put Iowa at 8-4, and resoundingly make NIU's biggest win much better than Fresno's. Well, biggest name on paper, probably, as...

c) Ball State to CRUSH Miami-OH. Would only be a shocker if that didn't happen.

d) Toledo to CRUSH @Akron. Akron can play teams tough (Michigan, NIU). Toledo needs to CRUSH them to keep their rankings as high as possible, and for the eyes of skeptical NIU voters who see a "Toledo 51 , Akron 14" score at the bottom of the screen repeated. Makes the previous week's NIU win over Toledo more resounding.

e) BGSU to solidly win @Buffalo; Miss-St to beat Ole Miss BGSU lost by only 1 pt to Miss St. Winning AT Buffalo would be a bigger win for BG. This would put BGSU as a tougher opponent going in to the MACC.

f) Wisconsin to Solidly Beat Penn State Central Florida's big OOC win is against Penn State. Wisconsin is a 24pt favorite which is a little too big. Wisconsin just needs to make a viewer understand that Penn State, yeah, sucks this year.

g) Fresno NOT to blow out @San Jose St Ya can't count on Fresno to LOSE. But you can hope for them to NOT blow out San Jose St, in a rivalry game, @San Jose. The line is 9pts, probably to jump up to 10.5 by game time. If Fresno wins by (merely) 10, that will keep them at bay in the votes.

h) Utah State NOT to blow out Wyoming Utah State can't lose, as that would have Boise going, even though Boise to computers isn't great, to voters by name, they are better (and that's where Fresno has a big advantage). But with all the angst about NIU jumping Fresno, we need as little excuse as possible in how people are feeling out how good one's opponents are. Let's hope Utah State needs the 4th Quarter to beat Wyoming, or Wyoming uses the 4th Quarter to make it pretty close. That way, when Fresno plays Utah State, they'll be FORCED to have to stomp them to make their case, as NIU will be playing a slightly better BGSU/Buffalo team @ 9-3.

i) Clemson to Win Solidly @South Carolina This would make UCF's close loss to SC look not so grand. This would keep UCF at bay, for voters who wanted to stop Fresno and/or NIU from going BCS Bowling.

j) Missouri to Beat Texas A&M Not only would making Johnny Football look average at best be good for Lynch's Heisman Finalist hopes, but Missouri beating Toledo in a non-blowout would help Toledo's stats, thus help NIU's indirectly.

---------

WEEK 15 (Championship Week):

a) NIU to beat BGSU/Buffalo CONVINCINGLY No OT win like last year. No complete stomp required, but win by 17 points or more. Don't have any "comebacks". Be up by 10+ at half, win by 17+ -- in the very least.

b) UCF NOT to blow out @SMU Not so necessary, BUT... SMU isn't quite as bad as one may think. They may be playing to be bowl-eligible, on Senior Day. UCF not impressing will be good, to hold back their votes. Getting beat by SMU would be AWESOME. It would knock UCF out of the BCS rankings race, but they'd STILL go to a BCS Bowl.

c) Louisville to Lose @Cinci Or maybe a barn-burner where they barely win, may be a more realistic hope. But if Louisville loses, computer-wise, it will make UCF's "best win" take a hit.

d) Fresno NOT to blow out Utah State Utah State could be 8-4 coming into this game, or 7-5 at worst. We can hope for Fresno to lose, but, more realistically, not have Fresno succeed in convincing voters they're SO much better than they are. Utah is not better than the winner of BGSU/Buffalo.

If all that stuff plays out -- NIU is going to a BCS Bowl.

Excellent analysis. Thank-you for the post!
11-24-2013 10:19 PM
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MaddDawgz02 Offline
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RE: Analysis for NIU to keep above Fresno in BCS...
I still say take a big hose onto the field, turn it on, and then forget to turn it off overnight and flood out Huskie Stadium. Not only are you honoring the row the boat theme with the visitors, but you are making conditions unplayable for a possible cancellation to save our computer points for WMU
11-24-2013 10:22 PM
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The Frisky Biscuit Offline
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RE: Analysis for NIU to keep above Fresno in BCS...
(11-24-2013 10:22 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  I still say take a big hose onto the field, turn it on, and then forget to turn it off overnight and flood out Huskie Stadium. Not only are you honoring the row the boat theme with the visitors, but you are making conditions unplayable for a possible cancellation to save our computer points for WMU

SURELY....SOMEBODY....on this board has a big hose??????

I can't put it on a tee any better.
11-24-2013 10:23 PM
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toddjnsn Offline
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RE: Analysis for NIU to keep above Fresno in BCS...
Quote:I still say take a big hose onto the field, turn it on, and then forget to turn it off overnight and flood out Huskie Stadium. Not only are you honoring the row the boat theme with the visitors, but you are making conditions unplayable for a possible cancellation to save our computer points for WMU

Yeah... don't you wish that fake article about WMU cancelling the game was true? :) Honestly, I think the cancellation of that game would be good for BOTH NIU & WMU.

If NIU whips the Hell out of WMU, by like 40+ points, and puts on a "Lynch Show" -- the damage will be minimal.
11-24-2013 10:24 PM
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sterling1man Offline
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RE: Analysis for NIU to keep above Fresno in BCS...
(11-24-2013 10:22 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  I still say take a big hose onto the field, turn it on, and then forget to turn it off overnight and flood out Huskie Stadium. Not only are you honoring the row the boat theme with the visitors, but you are making conditions unplayable for a possible cancellation to save our computer points for WMU

What a terrible way to honor the most celebrated Senior class in the history of NIU FB.
MD vote for Lynch.
http://promo.espn.go.com/espn/contests/n...sman/2013/
11-24-2013 10:25 PM
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HuskiePride12 Online
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RE: Analysis for NIU to keep above Fresno in BCS...
Did you mean blue hose?!? They're our top team next year at Huskie stadium
11-24-2013 10:27 PM
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HuskieJoe Offline
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RE: Analysis for NIU to keep above Fresno in BCS...
Don't forget OK st over OK. That game is worth about 60 votes in the coaches poll alone.
11-24-2013 10:32 PM
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MaddDawgz02 Offline
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RE: Analysis for NIU to keep above Fresno in BCS...
(11-24-2013 10:25 PM)sterling1man Wrote:  
(11-24-2013 10:22 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  I still say take a big hose onto the field, turn it on, and then forget to turn it off overnight and flood out Huskie Stadium. Not only are you honoring the row the boat theme with the visitors, but you are making conditions unplayable for a possible cancellation to save our computer points for WMU

What a terrible way to honor the most celebrated Senior class in the history of NIU FB.
MD vote for Lynch.
http://promo.espn.go.com/espn/contests/n...sman/2013/

It would be honoring them by getting to a BCS bowl game. I believe just playing WMU game, causes NIU to lose out to Fresno.
11-24-2013 10:35 PM
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The Frisky Biscuit Offline
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RE: Analysis for NIU to keep above Fresno in BCS...
(11-24-2013 10:35 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  
(11-24-2013 10:25 PM)sterling1man Wrote:  
(11-24-2013 10:22 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  I still say take a big hose onto the field, turn it on, and then forget to turn it off overnight and flood out Huskie Stadium. Not only are you honoring the row the boat theme with the visitors, but you are making conditions unplayable for a possible cancellation to save our computer points for WMU

What a terrible way to honor the most celebrated Senior class in the history of NIU FB.
MD vote for Lynch.
http://promo.espn.go.com/espn/contests/n...sman/2013/

It would be honoring them by getting to a BCS bowl game. I believe just playing WMU game, causes NIU to lose out to Fresno.

Can you buy out a conference game?
11-24-2013 10:39 PM
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toddjnsn Offline
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RE: Analysis for NIU to keep above Fresno in BCS...
Quote:I believe just playing WMU game, causes NIU to lose out to Fresno.

Computer-wise, it'd make Fresno closer if Fresno beats San Jose St. But NIU would still have a big lead on computers like they did last week.

- NIU beats #118 WMU
- Fresno beats #82 San Jose State

BUT, if NIU blows out WMU by 40 pts in a "Lynch of Heisman showcase", while Fresno has to bite & scrap to pull out a victory over under .500 San Jose State? NIU will GAIN *votes* over Fresno, I believe.

Fresno gained votes because in BCS-Conference-Only-Minded voters, them blowing out New Mexico was Better than NIU beating Toledo.

So from what computers take away from NIU, they can gain at least a chunk of it back by votes to lessen the blow Overall. BUT YES, it will put NIU & Fresno neck & neck, IMO, NIU Barely over Fresno -- if NIU blows out WMU, and Fresno has to claw their way to a last half of 4th Q victory.

If Fresno BLOWS OUT San Jose St, and NIU beats WMU by only 17 or 18 pts -- I think NIU will be back closer to where they were last week in the standings compared to Fresno. Closer.

Okay.

But Championship Week:
- NIU beating #50ish Buffalo (9-3)
- Fresno beating #65ish Utah State (8-4)

NIU will gain BACK some on computers over Fresno, if both win equally (where votes don't change much). It will make it a barn-burner -- who the hell knows who'll win.

But if NIU waxes Buffalo and Fresno merely beats Utah State AT HOME by 13, I'd say that'd move NIU above Fresno if they were roughly tied or Fresno was only a bit above them.
(This post was last modified: 11-24-2013 10:55 PM by toddjnsn.)
11-24-2013 10:52 PM
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HuskieJoe Offline
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RE: Analysis for NIU to keep above Fresno in BCS...
(11-24-2013 10:52 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  Fresno gained votes because in BCS-Conference-Only-Minded voters, them blowing out New Mexico was Better than NIU beating Toledo.

No. Fresno gained on NIU because Az St jumped NIU and took 60 votes from NIU, offsetting the votes Fresno lost from some voters moving Wisky and LSU ahead of them, resulting in a small gain for Fresno.
11-24-2013 11:00 PM
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