(11-24-2013 10:12 PM)stever20 Wrote:  It'd be like a 80-90% chance that Oklahoma St would pass them up.

You're just making this stuff up.

(11-24-2013 10:12 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-24-2013 10:05 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(11-24-2013 10:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-24-2013 10:00 PM)Marge Schott Wrote:  Heck, Clemson could be #2 in the BCS and staring down a rematch with FSU in two weeks if 5 games go their way.

Auburn beats Alabama (Auburn to SEC CG)
Texas A&M beats Missouri (South Carolina to SEC CG)
Clemson beats South Carolina

Michigan State beats Ohio State
South Carolina beats Auburn

(Probably only about a 1% chance the above happens.)

It'd depend on what voters did with Oklahoma State and Michigan State at that point, but Clemson has the advantage of being ranked higher in the polls right now. I'd think that'd make it hard for them to get jumped from schools behind them unless people voted them out simply to avoid a rematch. (Clemson's loss to FSU would be better than losing to West Virginia or Notre Dame, though.)

Oklahoma St would almost certainly pass them up. Right now- before the anti-rematch sentiment takes over- it's close.

Also, quite frankly in your scenario, Clemson would have to worry about Alabama.

If Clemson wins at SC, there is no way OK St passes them.

Actually it's very likely. look at the polls...
Coaches
Clemson 1289
Auburn 1268
Missouri 1243
Oklahoma St 1225.

If Auburn and Missouri lose(which is the scenario)- there will be a decent number of voters that have Clemson ahead of Auburn/Missouri and Oklahoma St. With Auburn/Missouri losing- that buffer evaporates.

Harris the gap is even larger:
Clemson 2148
Auburn 2139
Missouri 2109
Oklahoma St 2013
If Auburn/Missouri lose- Clemson won't be up by 145 votes on Oklahoma St. This would close the gap considerably.

It'd be like a 80-90% chance that Oklahoma St would pass them up. And, frankly Clemson would have to worry more about Alabama as well....

Have you guys watched Manziel since the Auburn game? His shoulder injury has altered his throwing motion and curtailed his accuracy. He is still very good, but is playing in obvious pain and without touch on his passes, and with a variance of plus or minus 2 yards on throws that had been within a foot.

Alabama beating Auburn is likely. Texas A&M beating Mizzou is not. Both are possible and that is about as big a claim as you can make. I wouldn't put Clemson beating South Carolina in the bag either. I think that one will be pretty close. The surest bet for this weekend seems to be Florida State over Florida. I doubt Michigan can challenge Ohio State, but one truly never knows in that game. Your scenario works well in theory, but it has too many variables to be likely.

(11-24-2013 10:16 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(11-24-2013 10:12 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-24-2013 10:05 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(11-24-2013 10:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-24-2013 10:00 PM)Marge Schott Wrote:  Heck, Clemson could be #2 in the BCS and staring down a rematch with FSU in two weeks if 5 games go their way.

Auburn beats Alabama (Auburn to SEC CG)
Texas A&M beats Missouri (South Carolina to SEC CG)
Clemson beats South Carolina

Michigan State beats Ohio State
South Carolina beats Auburn

(Probably only about a 1% chance the above happens.)

It'd depend on what voters did with Oklahoma State and Michigan State at that point, but Clemson has the advantage of being ranked higher in the polls right now. I'd think that'd make it hard for them to get jumped from schools behind them unless people voted them out simply to avoid a rematch. (Clemson's loss to FSU would be better than losing to West Virginia or Notre Dame, though.)

Oklahoma St would almost certainly pass them up. Right now- before the anti-rematch sentiment takes over- it's close.

Also, quite frankly in your scenario, Clemson would have to worry about Alabama.

If Clemson wins at SC, there is no way OK St passes them.

Actually it's very likely. look at the polls...
Coaches
Clemson 1289
Auburn 1268
Missouri 1243
Oklahoma St 1225.

If Auburn and Missouri lose(which is the scenario)- there will be a decent number of voters that have Clemson ahead of Auburn/Missouri and Oklahoma St. With Auburn/Missouri losing- that buffer evaporates.

Harris the gap is even larger:
Clemson 2148
Auburn 2139
Missouri 2109
Oklahoma St 2013
If Auburn/Missouri lose- Clemson won't be up by 145 votes on Oklahoma St. This would close the gap considerably.

It'd be like a 80-90% chance that Oklahoma St would pass them up. And, frankly Clemson would have to worry more about Alabama as well....

So you're assuming if Missou and Auburn lose more voters will vote for Ok St than Clemson even if Clemson walks into SEC country and beats a top 10 team. Don't think so. Ok St is on a bye and they get Ok at home to end the season. I don't see it.

I'm saying that there are some voters right now that have their ballot as
4 Clemson
5 Auburn
6 Missouri
7 Oklahoma St

when Auburn/Missouri lose- Oklahoma St will move up to 5. Now, when Auburn beats Alabama- you will see some voters having their ballot as
1 Florida St
2 Ohio St
3 Auburn
4 Alabama
5 Clemson
6 Oklahoma St

now- South Carolina beats Auburn and Michigan St beats Ohio St(going to your scenario)
1 Florida St
2 Alabama
3 Clemson
4 Oklahoma St

(11-24-2013 10:19 PM)Marge Schott Wrote:  

(11-24-2013 10:12 PM)stever20 Wrote:  It'd be like a 80-90% chance that Oklahoma St would pass them up.

You're just making this stuff up.

No I am not. For one- you would see a lot of voters who didn't want the Alabama rematch with LSU do the same thing to Clemson. This time- there would be a TON more given that it was a blowout the 1st time. Also, right now it's close- and that's with 2 wedge poll teams that will be gone.

Clemson is trailing Ok St by a sizable margin in the computers. A win over SC and that gap closes considerably.

(11-24-2013 09:19 PM)Sultan of Euphonistan Wrote:  NIU finally pass Fresno in the rankings.

Was anyone really expecting this? They just blew by them in the standings even though they remain far behind in the human polls. It was obvious their strength of schedule would improve, but that didn't necessarily mean they would move up a lot in the computers. They went from .520 to .730 in one week. Fresno dropped from .410 to .330.

NIU was 21-10-12-14-3-16 last week in computers. With their Toledo win: 10-9-8-6-3-8

Fresno was 18-19-13-25-13-13. Playing UNM dropped them to:
21-20-14-NR-15-15.

Fresno's drop I can understand. NIU's huge leap in 3 of the polls makes little sense.

(11-24-2013 10:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Does anyone here really believe that in head to head competition that Northern Illinois would beat Central Florida? or Louisville? Does anyone here believe that Fresno State would beat either of those 1 loss schools?

Yes. I definitely think they could beat UCF and Louisville. No question.

(11-24-2013 10:23 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  Clemson is trailing Ok St by a sizable margin in the computers. A win over SC and that gap closes considerably.

Both would go up in the computers(Clemson would go up more). But, the polls wouldn't be favorable to Clemson at all.

And also you have the Alabama situation. Alabama would be ahead of Clemson in the computers- by a decent margin. Probably close in the polls(especially if it matters)...

(11-24-2013 10:24 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-24-2013 09:19 PM)Sultan of Euphonistan Wrote:  NIU finally pass Fresno in the rankings.

Was anyone really expecting this? They just blew by them in the standings even though they remain far behind in the human polls. It was obvious their strength of schedule would improve, but that didn't necessarily mean they would move up a lot in the computers. They went from .520 to .730 in one week. Fresno dropped from .410 to .330.

NIU was 21-10-12-14-3-16 last week in computers. With their Toledo win: 10-9-8-6-3-8

Fresno was 18-19-13-25-13-13. Playing UNM dropped them to:
21-20-14-NR-15-15.

Fresno's drop I can understand. NIU's huge leap in 3 of the polls makes little sense.

Just a guess but I think NIU's rise was due to Iowa's win over Michigan since they beat Iowa earlier in the year. Then Idaho game against FSU. NIU played them as well.

(11-24-2013 10:31 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-24-2013 10:23 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  Clemson is trailing Ok St by a sizable margin in the computers. A win over SC and that gap closes considerably.

Both would go up in the computers(Clemson would go up more). But, the polls wouldn't be favorable to Clemson at all.

And also you have the Alabama situation. Alabama would be ahead of Clemson in the computers- by a decent margin. Probably close in the polls(especially if it matters)...

I'm not really joining the whole Bama debate. I just jumped in because you said Ok St would certainly pass Clemson.

(11-24-2013 10:24 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-24-2013 09:19 PM)Sultan of Euphonistan Wrote:  NIU finally pass Fresno in the rankings.

Was anyone really expecting this? They just blew by them in the standings even though they remain far behind in the human polls. It was obvious their strength of schedule would improve, but that didn't necessarily mean they would move up a lot in the computers. They went from .520 to .730 in one week. Fresno dropped from .410 to .330.

NIU was 21-10-12-14-3-16 last week in computers. With their Toledo win: 10-9-8-6-3-8

Fresno was 18-19-13-25-13-13. Playing UNM dropped them to:
21-20-14-NR-15-15.

Fresno's drop I can understand. NIU's huge leap in 3 of the polls makes little sense.

If you actually look at who they have both played then yes you should have seen this coming. In fact if you have been paying attention to the computers you would know this was coming. The MWC as a whole has not been that good this year nor has Fresno's OOC opponents. In addition Boise just received another loss hurting what was Fresno's best win. Now they have to rely on the likes of Rutgers and SDSU (with their loss to an FCS school) to be their best wins.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Iowa ranked soon, after beating Nebraska this week.

The Hawks have 4 losses, each to a team ranked in the Top 25 in every poll. The number of losses from those 4 teams ...... 3 games.

Iowa Hawkeyes baby!!!

they will.. Clemson has no chance in the scenario presented. They frankly have no chance period.

(11-24-2013 10:23 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  Clemson is trailing Ok St by a sizable margin in the computers. A win over SC and that gap closes considerably.

Why when Oklahoma St. is playing Oklahoma?

(11-24-2013 10:35 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-24-2013 10:23 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  Clemson is trailing Ok St by a sizable margin in the computers. A win over SC and that gap closes considerably.

Why when Oklahoma St. is playing Oklahoma?

road win at SC is worth more than OK St's home win over OK

(11-24-2013 10:35 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-24-2013 10:23 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  Clemson is trailing Ok St by a sizable margin in the computers. A win over SC and that gap closes considerably.

Why when Oklahoma St. is playing Oklahoma?

Great Point-
current cpu ratings:
South Carolina- 12
Oklahoma- 18

that's not a huge difference at all quite frankly. Also- Oklahoma could see their rating go up even more if Notre Dame beats Stanford.

(11-24-2013 10:36 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(11-24-2013 10:35 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-24-2013 10:23 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  Clemson is trailing Ok St by a sizable margin in the computers. A win over SC and that gap closes considerably.

Why when Oklahoma St. is playing Oklahoma?

road win at SC is worth more than OK St's home win over OK

It's worth a bit more- but not that much more.

(11-24-2013 10:35 PM)stever20 Wrote:  they will.. Clemson has no chance in the scenario presented. They frankly have no chance period.

I say you're making this up because you are. You're speaking in absolutes.

(11-24-2013 10:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The top 10 will sort themselves out over the next few weeks. The issues I see are in the second 10 positions. Does anyone here really believe that in head to head competition that Northern Illinois would beat Central Florida? or Louisville? Does anyone here believe that Fresno State would beat either of those 1 loss schools? I for one don't believe that either of the them would beat a three loss L.S.U.. That is why I despise these rankings and long for the day when we no longer need them. I have nothing against Northern Illinois or Fresno State and do I believe them to be top 25 material? Yes, but I wouldn't place either of them above Louisville and Central Florida. Would I rank them above a three loss L.S.U.? Probably, because of their records. But would I believe them to be better than L.S.U.? No. This whole system is, has been, and will continue to be F.U.B.A.R..

Most of the human and computer polls disagree on your assessment of UL and UCF. The bottom of the AAC is unbelievably bad this year. Temple, UConn, USF and Memphis are just awful and really down from last year. UCF and UL both only beat Memphis by a TD. UCF needed a miracle comeback to beat Temple. So there's plenty of reasons to believe NIU and Fresno are better than those two. I haven't watched any of them enough to have a strong opinion except that they all have talent and weaknesses. There's not sufficient in their game by game results to clearly separate the 4, except that no one's beaten Fresno or NIU.

(11-24-2013 10:38 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-24-2013 10:36 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(11-24-2013 10:35 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-24-2013 10:23 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  Clemson is trailing Ok St by a sizable margin in the computers. A win over SC and that gap closes considerably.

Why when Oklahoma St. is playing Oklahoma?

road win at SC is worth more than OK St's home win over OK

It's worth a bit more- but not that much more.

It's worth enough to keep Ok St at bay. SC's computer avg in the BCS is .560 and OK is .310