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The Realignment Game aka what would Patterson do?
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CintiFan Offline
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The Realignment Game aka what would Patterson do?
Picture this: It’s November, 2021 and Texas AD Steve Patterson is sitting at his desk contemplating the future. He’s managed to return Texas to football prominence but his biggest challenge now is what to do when the Big 12 media agreements and grant of rights expire in about 3½ years in 2025.

On his desk is a consultant’s report laying out the financial situation. The B1G has almost doubled its per team payout over the last 8 years as a result of renegotiating their media deals in 2017 and the continued success of the BTN. Likewise, the SEC has increased its revenues as the SEC network grows. Both conferences are now well ahead of the Big 12 per team payout. To make matters worse, the report quotes network sources as indicating that the next Big 12 media deal will not significantly raise the compensation because the Big 12 brings only one national game (Texas – Oklahoma) to the table and no championship game. That, and being still without a cable network, means the Big 12 may not be able to come close to matching the B1G and SEC payouts in the future.

The other Big 12 teams have seen the report too, and those with options have begun exploring them. Kansas has been talking to the B1G of course. Oklahoma has been talking to both the B1G and SEC. Oklahoma State and West Virginia have each been talking to the SEC in the hope of going with Oklahoma, or going together as a pair if Oklahoma goes to the B1G. Patterson thinks he might be able to get them all to stay and keep the Big 12 conference together if he expands the LHN into a conference network, but he also thinks he’d need to guarantee at least OK, OK St and Kansas a payout for the first 5 years or so – and the payout would have to come from Texas’ revenues.

On Patterson’s desk are a few phone messages to return. The first is from a network executive who has been pushing the idea of an 8 team playoff, which seems to be gaining momentum. Each conference champ would be included, but the problem is that the SEC, B1G and Pac 12 are objecting to giving the Big 12 an automatic entry. They say only Texas or Oklahoma might deserve an automatic bid but without a conference championship game, an automatic bid makes their path to the playoffs too easy compared to the other conference champs. The networks are floating the idea of having only 4 power conferences, and taking both the champ and runner up to fill the 8 team field. They also see it as a way to finally force Notre Dame into a conference so the networks can feed off the ND revenue.

The next message is from the Notre Dame athletic director, who is pushing Texas to go independent. The network execs have told him that the 8 team playoff is a done deal and ND needs to pick a conference or be left out of the playoffs. The ND athletic director thinks that if Texas also went independent, both could hold out against the networks and other conferences and the powers that be would have to find a way to allow ND and Texas access to the playoffs. ND has suggested that the four conference champs get automatic bids and a selection committee picks the other four.

He also has a message from the B1G Commissioner. The B1G would extend an offer to Texas, but it is non-committal about taking any other Big 12 schools. The B1G would consider taking Kansas or Oklahoma but the conference will also look at non-Big 12 schools for the 16th spot. Apparently the B1G still thinks it has as shot at ND as the 16th team. To sweeten the deal, the B1G has offered Texas a lucrative buyout to acquire the LHN. The LHN would become part of the BTN and concentrate on the western conference B1G members.

Patterson also has a couple numbers he asked his assistant to get. The first is the Pac 12 Commissioner’s number. Patterson wants to renew discussions about Texas, Tech, Oklahoma and OK State joining the Pac 12. He’d also like them to take two other teams, Kansas and KState or KState and Iowa State if Kansas went to the Big 10. For political reasons, he may need to push for Baylor and maybe TCU instead, but he doesn’t think the Pac 12 will want 3 Texas members.

Patterson also has the number for a high powered Texas firm with contacts at several ACC schools, but he’s not sure what to ask them to do. If there really will be only 4 power conferences, then the ACC and Big 12 are on the bubble. He’s thinking about trying to keep the Big 12 together by raiding the ACC when its GOR expires. The Big 12 would look to add 4 ACC teams and target FSU, Miami, GTech, Clemson and VTech. If less than 4 came, he would try to backfill with other teams like USF, UCF or Cincinnati. He thinks a raid has a low probability of success, so instead he’s thinking about asking the ACC to explore a conference merger, with Texas and 7 other schools joining with UNC and 7 other southern ACC schools to create a new 16 team conference.

The last number Patterson has is the number for the SEC Commissioner. He’s not sure what to do with that one. Call it or burn it are the two options he’s considering.

The only person he’s not calling is the Big 12 Commissioner because, of course, he’ll do whatever Texas tells him to do.

So what should Patterson do?
11-24-2013 02:59 AM
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Post: #2
RE: The Realignment Game aka what would Patterson do?
Lots of total fail in the OP. I'll simply state the biggest and most obvious to anyone who understands Texas. What the AD wants, including DeLoss Dodds, is irrelevant. The President makes the call on conference choice.
11-24-2013 03:30 AM
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oliveandblue Offline
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RE: The Realignment Game aka what would Patterson do?
(11-24-2013 03:30 AM)bullet Wrote:  Lots of total fail in the OP. I'll simply state the biggest and most obvious to anyone who understands Texas. What the AD wants, including DeLoss Dodds, is irrelevant. The President makes the call on conference choice.

Well... ...change AD to President. You're right, though.

It's a very fun thing to consider, and I'll need way more time than a lunch break to think of a decent response.
11-25-2013 01:04 PM
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miko33 Offline
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RE: The Realignment Game aka what would Patterson do?
Is this a troll thread?
11-25-2013 01:31 PM
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BewareThePhog Offline
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RE: The Realignment Game aka what would Patterson do?
What makes all this amusing to speculate about is that Texas is one of two schools (with ND obviously being the other) that isn't solidly anchored somewhere that has enough cache to be attractive to almost everyone, provided that they show signs of playing well with others. Those aren't the only schools in recent memory that would be attractive to multiple conferences (Missouri, for example, is a good fit for the SEC, B1G, and Big 12), but they're the only ones that can pretty much punch their own ticket. There may still be some political resistance to them making a move without other Texas schools (aTm was fortunate in that UT anchoring the Big 12, tenuous as it may have been, gave them cover for an independent move), but they could probably find a way if they really want it.

We know that the PAC has interest. I think that despite the distance, the ACC would have interest (even perhaps as a partial member and counterpart to ND) and it's only logical that the B1G would have interest. Given what UT would bring to an already very strong league, I don't think that aTm has enough pull to block a move to the SEC if UT wanted it (although they'd go to great efforts to do so, I'm sure, because Bevo is a stronger brand on its own and the loss of distinction of SEC membership would hurt aTm a lot)

But being a conference anchor does bring a certain amount of leverage. While networks may not pay as much overall to the Big 12 in future as to the SEC, et al, that smaller pie would be shared among fewer members, and the Big 12 model of allowing each school to keep their Tier 3 rights allows Texas to retain control of a lucrative product, which would make up (at least for them) a shortfall related to those revenues distributed from the conference office. I'm not ignorant of the limitations of the Big 12 and I'm not about to say that its future in its present form is certain, but I also don't think it's quite as doomed as some believe it to be.
11-25-2013 01:52 PM
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CintiFan Offline
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RE: The Realignment Game aka what would Patterson do?
(11-25-2013 01:52 PM)BewareThePhog Wrote:  What makes all this amusing to speculate about is that Texas is one of two schools (with ND obviously being the other) that isn't solidly anchored somewhere that has enough cache to be attractive to almost everyone, provided that they show signs of playing well with others. Those aren't the only schools in recent memory that would be attractive to multiple conferences (Missouri, for example, is a good fit for the SEC, B1G, and Big 12), but they're the only ones that can pretty much punch their own ticket. There may still be some political resistance to them making a move without other Texas schools (aTm was fortunate in that UT anchoring the Big 12, tenuous as it may have been, gave them cover for an independent move), but they could probably find a way if they really want it.

We know that the PAC has interest. I think that despite the distance, the ACC would have interest (even perhaps as a partial member and counterpart to ND) and it's only logical that the B1G would have interest. Given what UT would bring to an already very strong league, I don't think that aTm has enough pull to block a move to the SEC if UT wanted it (although they'd go to great efforts to do so, I'm sure, because Bevo is a stronger brand on its own and the loss of distinction of SEC membership would hurt aTm a lot)

But being a conference anchor does bring a certain amount of leverage. While networks may not pay as much overall to the Big 12 in future as to the SEC, et al, that smaller pie would be shared among fewer members, and the Big 12 model of allowing each school to keep their Tier 3 rights allows Texas to retain control of a lucrative product, which would make up (at least for them) a shortfall related to those revenues distributed from the conference office. I'm not ignorant of the limitations of the Big 12 and I'm not about to say that its future in its present form is certain, but I also don't think it's quite as doomed as some believe it to be.

You're right. Texas is unique among the schools that may be in play when conference roulette comes around again. That's why I think they have so many options. Some are more within their control than others. Some options, like independence, are kind of a screw you to the rest of the Big 12, while others would require Texas to accept more of a partnership role than a big dog role.

So with all those options and factors, what should Texas do?

I think independence would get strong consideration and may well win if Texas thinks it can get an ND type arrangement from the ACC. I would think the ACC would love to have 10-12 games a year with Texas/ND.
11-25-2013 09:25 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #7
RE: The Realignment Game aka what would Patterson do?
(11-24-2013 03:30 AM)bullet Wrote:  Lots of total fail in the OP. I'll simply state the biggest and most obvious to anyone who understands Texas. What the AD wants, including DeLoss Dodds, is irrelevant. The President makes the call on conference choice.

And your Board of Regents (Trustees) makes the call on the Texas president and they are 1 vote shy of canning the present one.
11-25-2013 09:42 PM
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Pony94 Offline
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The Realignment Game aka what would Patterson do?
(11-25-2013 09:42 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(11-24-2013 03:30 AM)bullet Wrote:  Lots of total fail in the OP. I'll simply state the biggest and most obvious to anyone who understands Texas. What the AD wants, including DeLoss Dodds, is irrelevant. The President makes the call on conference choice.

And your Board of Regents (Trustees) makes the call on the Texas president and they are 1 vote shy of canning the present one.

Powers is protected for the foreseeable future
11-25-2013 09:43 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: The Realignment Game aka what would Patterson do?
(11-25-2013 09:43 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  
(11-25-2013 09:42 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(11-24-2013 03:30 AM)bullet Wrote:  Lots of total fail in the OP. I'll simply state the biggest and most obvious to anyone who understands Texas. What the AD wants, including DeLoss Dodds, is irrelevant. The President makes the call on conference choice.

And your Board of Regents (Trustees) makes the call on the Texas president and they are 1 vote shy of canning the present one.

Powers is protected for the foreseeable future

How? And, by whom?
11-25-2013 09:48 PM
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RE: The Realignment Game aka what would Patterson do?
I doubt they would take a Norte dame type approach to the acc it's to far distance wise IMO. The op thought on a big 12 acc merger sounds intriguing take 8 acc schools 8 big 12 schools and make 1 new conference. Unc state duke fsu Miami gt virginia clemson from acc Texas tt Baylor Kansas kstate ok okstate and a more academic school.
11-25-2013 09:50 PM
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Pony94 Offline
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The Realignment Game aka what would Patterson do?
(11-25-2013 09:48 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(11-25-2013 09:43 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  
(11-25-2013 09:42 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(11-24-2013 03:30 AM)bullet Wrote:  Lots of total fail in the OP. I'll simply state the biggest and most obvious to anyone who understands Texas. What the AD wants, including DeLoss Dodds, is irrelevant. The President makes the call on conference choice.

And your Board of Regents (Trustees) makes the call on the Texas president and they are 1 vote shy of canning the present one.

Powers is protected for the foreseeable future

How? And, by whom?

Senators and Legislators stepped up to halt any discussion of his removal a month ago. Made the news nightly here in Austin then disappeared. He is incredibly popular with staff and students.
(This post was last modified: 11-25-2013 09:52 PM by Pony94.)
11-25-2013 09:51 PM
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RE: The Realignment Game aka what would Patterson do?
(11-25-2013 09:51 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  
(11-25-2013 09:48 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(11-25-2013 09:43 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  
(11-25-2013 09:42 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(11-24-2013 03:30 AM)bullet Wrote:  Lots of total fail in the OP. I'll simply state the biggest and most obvious to anyone who understands Texas. What the AD wants, including DeLoss Dodds, is irrelevant. The President makes the call on conference choice.

And your Board of Regents (Trustees) makes the call on the Texas president and they are 1 vote shy of canning the present one.

Powers is protected for the foreseeable future

How? And, by whom?

Senators and Legislators stepped up to halt any discussion of his removal a month ago. Made the news nightly here in Austin then disappeared. He is incredibly popular with staff and students.
The effort likely got his attention. They probably wanted two things from him, his continued good work with those with whom he is popular, and a more compliant ear to the viewpoints of those controlling the loyal opposition. If he wasn't at least giving lip service to the latter for now the politics could have gotten stickier. Big money has a way of getting what it wants politically 1 vote needed or not, unless even bigger money is up against them. It will be interesting to see what happens. Thanks for the reply it sounds succinct and accurate to me.
11-25-2013 09:59 PM
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Pony94 Offline
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The Realignment Game aka what would Patterson do?
(11-25-2013 09:59 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(11-25-2013 09:51 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  
(11-25-2013 09:48 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(11-25-2013 09:43 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  
(11-25-2013 09:42 PM)JRsec Wrote:  And your Board of Regents (Trustees) makes the call on the Texas president and they are 1 vote shy of canning the present one.

Powers is protected for the foreseeable future

How? And, by whom?

Senators and Legislators stepped up to halt any discussion of his removal a month ago. Made the news nightly here in Austin then disappeared. He is incredibly popular with staff and students.
The effort likely got his attention. They probably wanted two things from him, his continued good work with those with whom he is popular, and a more compliant ear to the viewpoints of those controlling the loyal opposition. If he wasn't at least giving lip service to the latter for now the politics could have gotten stickier. Big money has a way of getting what it wants politically 1 vote needed or not, unless even bigger money is up against them. It will be interesting to see what happens. Thanks for the reply it sounds succinct and accurate to me.

Pure speculation from me but it seemed non-Texas politicians were behind it. Smelled of Slick Rick Perry (based on tv reporting) Would love a Longhorn perspective.
11-25-2013 10:02 PM
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RE: The Realignment Game aka what would Patterson do?
(11-25-2013 09:59 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(11-25-2013 09:51 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  
(11-25-2013 09:48 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(11-25-2013 09:43 PM)Pony94 Wrote:  
(11-25-2013 09:42 PM)JRsec Wrote:  And your Board of Regents (Trustees) makes the call on the Texas president and they are 1 vote shy of canning the present one.

Powers is protected for the foreseeable future

How? And, by whom?

Senators and Legislators stepped up to halt any discussion of his removal a month ago. Made the news nightly here in Austin then disappeared. He is incredibly popular with staff and students.
The effort likely got his attention. They probably wanted two things from him, his continued good work with those with whom he is popular, and a more compliant ear to the viewpoints of those controlling the loyal opposition. If he wasn't at least giving lip service to the latter for now the politics could have gotten stickier. Big money has a way of getting what it wants politically 1 vote needed or not, unless even bigger money is up against them. It will be interesting to see what happens. Thanks for the reply it sounds succinct and accurate to me.

No. Rick Perry is trying to destroy Texas higher education by dumbing it down and undoing at least a half century of effort. He managed to get Texas A&M a warning letter from the AAU. Powers has opposed his efforts. Perry has appointed regents to try to force him to follow Perry's wishes or to remove him. Legislature stopped Perry and those regents in their tracks. One of those regents (the one who contacted Saban last January) is under investigation. Alumni, staff and students are solidly behind Powers and have contacted the legislature every time Perry tried to force his way.

Now Powers is near retirement, but he will outlast Perry who is finally leaving the governor's mansion in 2014.
11-25-2013 10:21 PM
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RE: The Realignment Game aka what would Patterson do?
Rick Perry is one of those people of limited intelligence who latch onto an idea and just won't let go once he's got it in his mind. First it was his Trans-Texas corridors. Now its these "Breakthrough Solutions" by Jeff Sandefer. This is a somewhat sympathetic article to Sandefer that talks about it:
http://www.statesman.com/news/news/local...-in/nRZr4/

Its like the Trans-Texas corridor. Its got some good points and is a solution to problems, but doesn't really make sense. Beware. This is something that might find its way to your state.
11-25-2013 10:28 PM
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IceJus10 Offline
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RE: The Realignment Game aka what would Patterson do?
(11-25-2013 01:31 PM)miko33 Wrote:  Is this a troll thread?

LOL -- why are you asking that, because you didn't start it?
11-26-2013 01:03 AM
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vandiver49 Offline
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RE: The Realignment Game aka what would Patterson do?
(11-25-2013 10:28 PM)bullet Wrote:  Rick Perry is one of those people of limited intelligence who latch onto an idea and just won't let go once he's got it in his mind. First it was his Trans-Texas corridors. Now its these "Breakthrough Solutions" by Jeff Sandefer. This is a somewhat sympathetic article to Sandefer that talks about it:
http://www.statesman.com/news/news/local...-in/nRZr4/

Its like the Trans-Texas corridor. Its got some good points and is a solution to problems, but doesn't really make sense. Beware. This is something that might find its way to your state.

The problem I have the those 'solutions' is that he wants to leverage the state of Texas' academic brands to make it happen. While the approach is novel, one would think you'd implement such an experiment at a smaller school first.
11-26-2013 06:03 AM
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miko33 Offline
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RE: The Realignment Game aka what would Patterson do?
(11-26-2013 01:03 AM)IceJus10 Wrote:  
(11-25-2013 01:31 PM)miko33 Wrote:  Is this a troll thread?

LOL -- why are you asking that, because you didn't start it?

No. It seems like it was a thread that was started with the intention to incite others to argue. I never liked these kind of threads. Also just a personal opinion, but I always thought it was lame and cheesy to concoct a hypothetical by pretending to be a known person and "acting like that person".
11-26-2013 08:52 AM
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maccoog Offline
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RE: The Realignment Game aka what would Patterson do?
(11-26-2013 08:52 AM)miko33 Wrote:  
(11-26-2013 01:03 AM)IceJus10 Wrote:  
(11-25-2013 01:31 PM)miko33 Wrote:  Is this a troll thread?

LOL -- why are you asking that, because you didn't start it?

No. It seems like it was a thread that was started with the intention to incite others to argue. I never liked these kind of threads. Also just a personal opinion, but I always thought it was lame and cheesy to concoct a hypothetical by pretending to be a known person and "acting like that person".

Your act has jumped the shark. I used to think it was funny but it is played now.
11-26-2013 03:58 PM
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