(11-25-2013 06:22 PM)Kittonhead Wrote: (11-25-2013 04:03 PM)arkstfan Wrote: Strange things happen routinely in college football but I find it difficult to believe that CUSA would take any action until they are actively engaged in negotiating the next tv deal and have some clue what sort of money is available for 2017 and beyond.
The last year of the CUSA TV deal is 2015-16.
CUSA is going to have to have a new TV deal on board by Spring of 2015 and any expansion decisions in place by then.
The future of CUSA is in trouble with no national presence in FB or BB right now. Its not impossible to envision the Texas/Louisiana schools breaking ranks and forming their own conference if CUSA can't get a deal in place.
I can see how you would want to believe this as a fan of the AAC and with the Ohio Bobcat set as your avatar, but these opinions run counter to the factual evidence coming out of CUSA right now. For example, CUSA just put together a bowl lineup that makes every other G5 conference envious, at least for now. Any defectors won't be able to take that with them.
You really need to look at this from a media perspective. CUSA only has ties to the sports leader with its postseason. Its regular season content is currently split between CBS and Fox. Both are entities that are expanding their sports programming and in search of more college football. They are unlikely to want to give up on a conference already in the fold when at the same time they are trying to pry more conferences away from ESPN. Remember, it was NBC sports who drove the bidding behind the AAC contract.
What seems more likely is that CUSA will seek more exposure rather than ask for more money. For example, they could ask CBS to expand and upgrade the conference's online content so that it is more on par with what ESPN and Fox are offering the P5. They could ask Fox for more games on FS1. In short, I don't necessarily see CUSA getting more or less money, but they could very well get more benefit.
Your statement that CUSA lacks a national presence in football and basketball and is therefore doomed is erroneous, too. CUSA did lose some marquis names, but gained a lot of parity, and therefore, competitiveness as a result. There are two schools of thought on this: One states that you need a big name team to be recognized as being successful. The other states that a tough, competitive conference is a huge advantage when dealing with other conferences on your same level. CUSA long bought into the idea that a marquis name was important when it had to in basketball with Memphis and the eleven dwarves, but there is no indication whatsoever that the conference can't consistently produce more bids every year without the marquis name but with smart scheduling and a good competitive balance. This strategy has worked for other basketball conferences in a similar position to CUSA, but it has failed others. Football will need someone to regularly emerge as the team everyone else is challenging in each division every year, but there is already one strong football presence in the conference that needs to fix its problems fast, and others are making the necessary investment and eyeing their opportunity.
In short, it might be a while before the conference re-emerges with a new identity, but there is no reason to believe that anyone is on board to defect right now and give up guaranteed money, bowl tie-ins, and shots at the Big Dance when they can establish and build an identity for themselves right where they are.
As for the original question, if there is a defection, you will likely see CUSA look at the western fringes of the Sun Belt for expansion first. This is because that is where several of the university presidents who control the conference want any new team to come from. The east presidents want a western school because they want to preserve the east division of the conference. The west presidents want a western school because they view any defection as likely to come from the west. For example, UTEP to the Mountain West or Rice to the AAC (rumored to be the top school on their list since they are located in a large metropolitan area and CUSA's four privates were close to each other, and only Rice remains in CUSA).
JMU could still be invited under the "best school available" argument, but it does not seem like many of the current and future CUSA presidents (aside from ODU's) openly feel that way right now.