(11-23-2013 12:34 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(11-23-2013 12:17 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(11-22-2013 11:25 PM)TerryD Wrote:  I have never owned a Rolex in my life, although I did lease a Mercedes once for three years. I look at being a lawyer as a job, a paycheck. I am not big into the "socialization" aspect of it. I am a long time partner in a 40 lawyer firm and make a pretty good living. I have been a member of the same firm for 25 years. I was one of three lawyers who was there when the Firm began and am still there.

I still consider myself a blue collar, Yankee, Catholic guy despite living in the Deep South for over thirty years. I still recall where I came from and who I am, what my family heritage is.

I was the only Catholic in my mostly Southern Baptist law firm for years. I was asked to weekly Bible study every week every Wednesday at lunch for about five years. I always said "Hell, no". Square peg, round hole. They finally gave up and have not asked me for the past twenty years.

I got ahead because I was willing to litigate and do any type of litigation practice needed (and had the ability to do so) not by "socialization". That, and my sense of humor, lol.

Excellent response Terry. I didn't mean to ruffle any feathers with my socialization comment as much as I thought the comments before were looking at professions strictly on the basis of money without considering the intangibles.

To a small firm lawyer in Alabama, that Nuclear Technology certificate to make 110,000 sounds pretty good until you realize you'll be going to work every day in a Nuclear Protection Suit like Homer Simpson.

If you want to make more money do the work necessary to start you're own firm. I have an Uncle who did it Dallas and now he's renovating the top of a skyscraper where his office is into home....

Oh, no feathers ruffled. Not at all.

I am going on 57 years old. I am far more looking forward to retirement than starting my own firm at this point.

No worries, I was suggesting the other guy who wished he majored in Nuclear Technology or Coal Mining over practicing law.

I've had few spoiled girlfriend lawyers over the years that wouldn't be caught dead doing something like that. For them being a lawyer is about status and prestige.

It has always has been about supply and demand, coupled with inflation and it always will be.

(11-23-2013 12:25 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-22-2013 06:10 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Considering that there are very few jobs left that can be outsourced, I think you will eventually see the minimum wage doubled to push part of the low wage work force outside the spectrum of wages that allow for government assistance and more into the category of earning enough to pay taxes. Then a couple years of hoping the higher wages spur spending creating more service jobs.

I think education is going to have some dramatic changes. For example Arkansas State has created their Technical Institute at one of the two year campuses and it awards various technical certifications. They have expanded branches to most if not all of two year campus sites and recently the Tech Institute signed a contract with a large manufacturer to handle all of their employee training.

I think what you will see happening will be employers who need skilled and semi-skilled workers will move out of the business of directly training workers and instead refer candidates to training programs run by private or public education outfits and then hire for those jobs from the pool of students that complete the training.

It is going to require a rethink of how we do a lot of stuff. For example unemployment compensation will probably become a system of a stipend plus education benefit with a very limited period of stipend outside of educational activity. You will probably see some fields like nursing and many med tech fields feature partnerships between hospitals and educational institutions with positions becoming more certification oriented than associates or bachelor's oriented to cut cost and hospitals agreeing to subsidize loans of new hires or selecting students for free or reduced tuition if they agree to work for the employer for a certain amount of time.

Larger hospitals in Georgia are already doing this, and have been for about 6 years. The nursing aspect is more work / study beyond the second year (LPN). For X-ray techs and other technical positions it is more as you describe.

Automation is going to hit the classroom next. Georgia is in the second year of an at home experiment utilizing classes developed at Chapel Hill. The cost per student is a shade over $8,000 dollars less per student per year versus the classroom experience, but it only works for self starters. So I disagree with the assessment about outsourcing. Technically automation is not outsourcing, but the net result will be the same. And, the fields that can experience automation are growing in number every year. Even in retail the move will be to even more of the Amazon type of experience. Walmart is in the fourth year of increasing this kind of service. I expect to see grocery shopping more broadly done on line at some point. Two paycheck households will place an order over the internet to their local grocery stores who will then debit their accounts. Benefit perks will be loaded for reduction of the final costs base upon patronage (no mail outs). Check outs will be reduced, stocking becomes less important, space utilization goes way up for the stores, and bags are eliminated. Grocery orders will be boxed and labeled for pick up at a specified time and available at a pick up window or door. Law enforcement is already moving toward more automation through surveillance. In retail the cost of maintaining a traditional storefront costs you more in merchandising, staffing, signage and theft, not to mention issues with parking. We are just on the cusp of sweeping change in retail. So, just as I pointed out the shifts coming in education over a year ago with many disagreeing with my statements, the change to our society is just beginning. The risks of this shift are as of yet undetermined but certainly will be the same as all things tied to the internet and the electrical grid. I see some big pluses and some rather large risks. P.S. I don't think I'd be investing heavily in commercial real estate as it has likely peaked. It will still be in demand but how it is used and how much that is required may change significantly.

I still feel that a lot of people want to hop in their car and go down to the grocery store to pick out their produce instead of chancing it on a delivery.

In retails deals at discounters like Walmart are often pretty competitive to what you are going to find only unless you want to go to one of those make a bid sites where select items can be picked up for dirt cheap.

I was able to just go down to the local best buy and get a cellular service tablet for 147 dollars. Less risk and as good of pricing as what you'll find online.

(11-23-2013 12:56 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(11-23-2013 12:25 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-22-2013 06:10 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Considering that there are very few jobs left that can be outsourced, I think you will eventually see the minimum wage doubled to push part of the low wage work force outside the spectrum of wages that allow for government assistance and more into the category of earning enough to pay taxes. Then a couple years of hoping the higher wages spur spending creating more service jobs.

I think education is going to have some dramatic changes. For example Arkansas State has created their Technical Institute at one of the two year campuses and it awards various technical certifications. They have expanded branches to most if not all of two year campus sites and recently the Tech Institute signed a contract with a large manufacturer to handle all of their employee training.

I think what you will see happening will be employers who need skilled and semi-skilled workers will move out of the business of directly training workers and instead refer candidates to training programs run by private or public education outfits and then hire for those jobs from the pool of students that complete the training.

It is going to require a rethink of how we do a lot of stuff. For example unemployment compensation will probably become a system of a stipend plus education benefit with a very limited period of stipend outside of educational activity. You will probably see some fields like nursing and many med tech fields feature partnerships between hospitals and educational institutions with positions becoming more certification oriented than associates or bachelor's oriented to cut cost and hospitals agreeing to subsidize loans of new hires or selecting students for free or reduced tuition if they agree to work for the employer for a certain amount of time.

Larger hospitals in Georgia are already doing this, and have been for about 6 years. The nursing aspect is more work / study beyond the second year (LPN). For X-ray techs and other technical positions it is more as you describe.

Automation is going to hit the classroom next. Georgia is in the second year of an at home experiment utilizing classes developed at Chapel Hill. The cost per student is a shade over $8,000 dollars less per student per year versus the classroom experience, but it only works for self starters. So I disagree with the assessment about outsourcing. Technically automation is not outsourcing, but the net result will be the same. And, the fields that can experience automation are growing in number every year. Even in retail the move will be to even more of the Amazon type of experience. Walmart is in the fourth year of increasing this kind of service. I expect to see grocery shopping more broadly done on line at some point. Two paycheck households will place an order over the internet to their local grocery stores who will then debit their accounts. Benefit perks will be loaded for reduction of the final costs base upon patronage (no mail outs). Check outs will be reduced, stocking becomes less important, space utilization goes way up for the stores, and bags are eliminated. Grocery orders will be boxed and labeled for pick up at a specified time and available at a pick up window or door. Law enforcement is already moving toward more automation through surveillance. In retail the cost of maintaining a traditional storefront costs you more in merchandising, staffing, signage and theft, not to mention issues with parking. We are just on the cusp of sweeping change in retail. So, just as I pointed out the shifts coming in education over a year ago with many disagreeing with my statements, the change to our society is just beginning. The risks of this shift are as of yet undetermined but certainly will be the same as all things tied to the internet and the electrical grid. I see some big pluses and some rather large risks. P.S. I don't think I'd be investing heavily in commercial real estate as it has likely peaked. It will still be in demand but how it is used and how much that is required may change significantly.

I still feel that a lot of people want to hop in their car and go down to the grocery store to pick out their produce instead of chancing it on a delivery.

In retails deals at discounters like Walmart are often pretty competitive to what you are going to find only unless you want to go to one of those make a bid sites where select items can be picked up for dirt cheap.

I was able to just go down to the local best buy and get a cellular service tablet for 147 dollars. Less risk and as good of pricing as what you'll find online.

I think you are right about human nature and produce, but there are ways to overcome that too. There is a lot of waste in produce due to handling by customers. After squeezes, pinches, drops, etc, a goodly portion becomes less palatable to the customers. The promise of fresh un-handled produce with a replacement guarantee on quality would help. But even if there was a compromise like all canned, bottled, boxed, and frozen items would be boxed and a small produce section would remain open to the public would still cut down on much of the overhead. Truly we'll have to wait and see what the public supports, but nevertheless the constant need to hold food inflation down through the reduction of overhead will lead to some significant changes.

(11-23-2013 12:25 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-22-2013 06:10 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Considering that there are very few jobs left that can be outsourced, I think you will eventually see the minimum wage doubled to push part of the low wage work force outside the spectrum of wages that allow for government assistance and more into the category of earning enough to pay taxes. Then a couple years of hoping the higher wages spur spending creating more service jobs.

I think education is going to have some dramatic changes. For example Arkansas State has created their Technical Institute at one of the two year campuses and it awards various technical certifications. They have expanded branches to most if not all of two year campus sites and recently the Tech Institute signed a contract with a large manufacturer to handle all of their employee training.

I think what you will see happening will be employers who need skilled and semi-skilled workers will move out of the business of directly training workers and instead refer candidates to training programs run by private or public education outfits and then hire for those jobs from the pool of students that complete the training.

It is going to require a rethink of how we do a lot of stuff. For example unemployment compensation will probably become a system of a stipend plus education benefit with a very limited period of stipend outside of educational activity. You will probably see some fields like nursing and many med tech fields feature partnerships between hospitals and educational institutions with positions becoming more certification oriented than associates or bachelor's oriented to cut cost and hospitals agreeing to subsidize loans of new hires or selecting students for free or reduced tuition if they agree to work for the employer for a certain amount of time.

Larger hospitals in Georgia are already doing this, and have been for about 6 years. The nursing aspect is more work / study beyond the second year (LPN). For X-ray techs and other technical positions it is more as you describe.

Automation is going to hit the classroom next. Georgia is in the second year of an at home experiment utilizing classes developed at Chapel Hill. The cost per student is a shade over $8,000 dollars less per student per year versus the classroom experience, but it only works for self starters. So I disagree with the assessment about outsourcing. Technically automation is not outsourcing, but the net result will be the same. And, the fields that can experience automation are growing in number every year. Even in retail the move will be to even more of the Amazon type of experience. Walmart is in the fourth year of increasing this kind of service. I expect to see grocery shopping more broadly done on line at some point. Two paycheck households will place an order over the internet to their local grocery stores who will then debit their accounts. Benefit perks will be loaded for reduction of the final costs base upon patronage (no mail outs). Check outs will be reduced, stocking becomes less important, space utilization goes way up for the stores, and bags are eliminated. Grocery orders will be boxed and labeled for pick up at a specified time and available at a pick up window or door. Law enforcement is already moving toward more automation through surveillance. In retail the cost of maintaining a traditional storefront costs you more in merchandising, staffing, signage and theft, not to mention issues with parking. We are just on the cusp of sweeping change in retail. So, just as I pointed out the shifts coming in education over a year ago with many disagreeing with my statements, the change to our society is just beginning. The risks of this shift are as of yet undetermined but certainly will be the same as all things tied to the internet and the electrical grid. I see some big pluses and some rather large risks. P.S. I don't think I'd be investing heavily in commercial real estate as it has likely peaked. It will still be in demand but how it is used and how much that is required may change significantly.

Stores will still need a lot of square feet to have inventory on hand and a lot of staff to box orders for fulfillment.

Without the added profit of impulse buys the online model will be difficult to make work.

Just tonight my wife was starting dinner and realized she was out of oil resulting in a last minute trip and several dollars of impulse buy.

But there are niches that can be carved out. Look at Dollar Shave Club. I love it. Saves me money and hassle.

Interesting thing I picked up this week. There is now a secondary market developing in video boards. The boards have an estimated useful life of about 15 years but AQ schools with 60 foot and larger boards now believe they need to be 98 foot or more. There are already several 150+.

Schools with these larger boards are looking to replace them with the mega size boards even though they have a decade of useful life left.

Louisiana Monroe has a 49 foot board and it looks large on the end line. Just wait until these 60 to 80 foot boards are being purchased on the secondary market and instead of being installed above 80 rows of seats are installed just past the end line.

If this secondary market becomes vibrant Daktronics and competitors are going to be more about service contracts and resale value will be added to cost estimates.

The other part is that as more schools start running 5-7 camera HD set-ups it will make more and more sense to become content producers.

(11-23-2013 01:32 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  Interesting thing I picked up this week. There is now a secondary market developing in video boards. The boards have an estimated useful life of about 15 years but AQ schools with 60 foot and larger boards now believe they need to be 98 foot or more. There are already several 150+.

Schools with these larger boards are looking to replace them with the mega size boards even though they have a decade of useful life left.

Louisiana Monroe has a 49 foot board and it looks large on the end line. Just wait until these 60 to 80 foot boards are being purchased on the secondary market and instead of being installed above 80 rows of seats are installed just past the end line.

If this secondary market becomes vibrant Daktronics and competitors are going to be more about service contracts and resale value will be added to cost estimates.

The other part is that as more schools start running 5-7 camera HD set-ups it will make more and more sense to become content producers.

That's the ticket, but they are going to have to have access to satellite time for self production to be distributed. I had hoped initially that the P5 conferences would be smart enough to see the potential, especially since students in broadcasting would be the best way to go with the production start up. Utilize your own graduates and grow your consumer base.

(11-23-2013 01:32 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  Interesting thing I picked up this week. There is now a secondary market developing in video boards. The boards have an estimated useful life of about 15 years but AQ schools with 60 foot and larger boards now believe they need to be 98 foot or more. There are already several 150+.

Schools with these larger boards are looking to replace them with the mega size boards even though they have a decade of useful life left.

Louisiana Monroe has a 49 foot board and it looks large on the end line. Just wait until these 60 to 80 foot boards are being purchased on the secondary market and instead of being installed above 80 rows of seats are installed just past the end line.

If this secondary market becomes vibrant Daktronics and competitors are going to be more about service contracts and resale value will be added to cost estimates.

The other part is that as more schools start running 5-7 camera HD set-ups it will make more and more sense to become content producers.

Interesting.

They have got to be some very expensive boards you're talking about here to generate interest on buying one used.

(11-22-2013 09:33 PM)ndlutz Wrote:  I'm an attorney.

.

I just knew you were a crook.

(11-23-2013 01:48 AM)JRsec Wrote:  That's the ticket, but they are going to have to have access to satellite time for self production to be distributed. I had hoped initially that the P5 conferences would be smart enough to see the potential, especially since students in broadcasting would be the best way to go with the production start up. Utilize your own graduates and grow your consumer base.

It's not often that I get to say there is an angle you haven't considered JR.

For five decades network radio and it's brother network TV didn't use satellites to distribute their content from NY and LA to Little Rock and Birmingham. They leased physical wires from AT&T and Western Union and sent an analog signal down the wires. Satellite was cheaper so it replaced the wire.

I remember KATV in Little Rock telecasting the Razorbacks in the Great Alaska Shootout and they had to explain that because the leased lines available weren't good enough they had to split the audio out of the signal send it by conventional phone so there would be a mismatch between the audio and video and the quality of the audio would not be as good. Watched a bit and it was terrible.

Getting away from those problems was another reason satellite was embraced.

Today it is possible to send a digital 1080p video signal with 5 channel audio over the wires. Except now you don't lease a wire from point A to point B. Instead you buy the capacity for an amount of bandwidth entering the internet at point A and the capacity to receive that capacity at point B.

Sporting Kansas City of Major League Soccer is doing this. They are doing a peer-to-peer transmission at their stadium and sending it to their TV affiliates (one full time in KC and I think there are two others that take it at least part time in other regional cities). They send a peer-to-peer transmission to the MLS broadcast center for redistribution. It goes on satellite for distribution to Direct, Dish, and Sports In Demand (Comcast, Cox, Brighthouse, Suddenlink, ATT, Verizon, etc).

A friend is an executive with Sporting KC and I was debating whether to buy the PPV product or online product which are similarly priced. His advice was to take the online product because it gives access on every platform, the only downside is you don't get your choice of announcers like the PPV product because MLS sends only one feed.

You can distribute to TV stations or to local cable providers (the latter costs you access to Dish and Direct subscribers in the region).

In the Sun Belt nothing causes more frustration than a game being selected for the Sun Belt network. People who have UVerse, Direct and Dish get shut out and the Cox/Comcast people will license to Suddenlink and such but not the others and there is an ESPN3/WatchESPN blackout within the region.

Last Saturday I was in Cleveland, Ohio and watched AState via ESPN3, avoiding the blackout by virtue of being in Ohio. As I watched the game on a laptop, I had Bama-Miss St on TV. At halftime WatchESPN was doing look-ins on various games. I would see a big play on my laptop and then look up to watch again on TV because the hotel was using satellite for their TV. There was a lag and I would see the plays first on laptop.

There is no reason that universities who are producing (or hiring out) their own apps cannot add a feature to stream games and at 6:50 send a push notification that the women's basketball or a baseball game starts at 7 live on the app and do the same for games that aren't distributed via the legacy network of ESPN and Fox. Games distributed via broadcast TV stations or regional games can also be made available with blackout restrictions if needed.

(11-23-2013 01:14 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(11-23-2013 12:25 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-22-2013 06:10 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Considering that there are very few jobs left that can be outsourced, I think you will eventually see the minimum wage doubled to push part of the low wage work force outside the spectrum of wages that allow for government assistance and more into the category of earning enough to pay taxes. Then a couple years of hoping the higher wages spur spending creating more service jobs.

I think education is going to have some dramatic changes. For example Arkansas State has created their Technical Institute at one of the two year campuses and it awards various technical certifications. They have expanded branches to most if not all of two year campus sites and recently the Tech Institute signed a contract with a large manufacturer to handle all of their employee training.

I think what you will see happening will be employers who need skilled and semi-skilled workers will move out of the business of directly training workers and instead refer candidates to training programs run by private or public education outfits and then hire for those jobs from the pool of students that complete the training.

It is going to require a rethink of how we do a lot of stuff. For example unemployment compensation will probably become a system of a stipend plus education benefit with a very limited period of stipend outside of educational activity. You will probably see some fields like nursing and many med tech fields feature partnerships between hospitals and educational institutions with positions becoming more certification oriented than associates or bachelor's oriented to cut cost and hospitals agreeing to subsidize loans of new hires or selecting students for free or reduced tuition if they agree to work for the employer for a certain amount of time.

Larger hospitals in Georgia are already doing this, and have been for about 6 years. The nursing aspect is more work / study beyond the second year (LPN). For X-ray techs and other technical positions it is more as you describe.

Automation is going to hit the classroom next. Georgia is in the second year of an at home experiment utilizing classes developed at Chapel Hill. The cost per student is a shade over $8,000 dollars less per student per year versus the classroom experience, but it only works for self starters. So I disagree with the assessment about outsourcing. Technically automation is not outsourcing, but the net result will be the same. And, the fields that can experience automation are growing in number every year. Even in retail the move will be to even more of the Amazon type of experience. Walmart is in the fourth year of increasing this kind of service. I expect to see grocery shopping more broadly done on line at some point. Two paycheck households will place an order over the internet to their local grocery stores who will then debit their accounts. Benefit perks will be loaded for reduction of the final costs base upon patronage (no mail outs). Check outs will be reduced, stocking becomes less important, space utilization goes way up for the stores, and bags are eliminated. Grocery orders will be boxed and labeled for pick up at a specified time and available at a pick up window or door. Law enforcement is already moving toward more automation through surveillance. In retail the cost of maintaining a traditional storefront costs you more in merchandising, staffing, signage and theft, not to mention issues with parking. We are just on the cusp of sweeping change in retail. So, just as I pointed out the shifts coming in education over a year ago with many disagreeing with my statements, the change to our society is just beginning. The risks of this shift are as of yet undetermined but certainly will be the same as all things tied to the internet and the electrical grid. I see some big pluses and some rather large risks. P.S. I don't think I'd be investing heavily in commercial real estate as it has likely peaked. It will still be in demand but how it is used and how much that is required may change significantly.

Stores will still need a lot of square feet to have inventory on hand and a lot of staff to box orders for fulfillment.

Without the added profit of impulse buys the online model will be difficult to make work.

Just tonight my wife was starting dinner and realized she was out of oil resulting in a last minute trip and several dollars of impulse buy.

But there are niches that can be carved out. Look at Dollar Shave Club. I love it. Saves me money and hassle.

Stores are designed for impulse buying. They aren't going to want to not have people there. The pre-boxed strategy is for on-line stores that don't have brick and mortar costs.

(11-23-2013 01:50 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  [quote='arkstfan' pid='10055446' dateline='1385188354']


Interesting.

They have got to be some very expensive boards you're talking about here to generate interest on buying one used.

If you have a $20 million or $30 million video board and your choices are:

$1 million for a 50 foot board with a 15 year useful life or
$2.5 million for a 100 foot board with a 15 year useful life or
$1 million for an 80 foot board with a 10 year useful life

Buying used makes some sense especially when the supplier is offering the same warranty as if it were new.

You get a board size closer to what the SEC, Big XII, Big 10 schools have and with many of those likely to end up on the end line in CUSA, Sun Belt, MAC,MWC and FCS the closer proximity of an 80 foot board on the end line provides a viewing experience similar to 100 or 120 foot board placed behind the end zone seats at a larger stadium.

Universities, especially athletic departments because of their budgeting aren't like a steel company thinking depreciation and useful life for cost recovery. They are more likely to contemplate affordability based on the income stream and annual payment. LSU, Bama, Ohio State and Texas tend to make cash purchase of these items while others will need to finance either by leasing or taking a note.

Given the current upgrade cycle if you can get a larger video board, pay for it in five years, you are poised to upgrade again in five years if bigger and better is available on the secondary market.

It's like opting to buy an older model cell phone (ie. an iPhone 4s or 5c) for no or little payment rather than the higher price new model because you can handle being a generation behind and can replace it in two years when it is getting close to the point of no longer being supported.

Big money schools want to be as close to the front of the curve and will be on a quick upgrade cycle as long as the tech warrants it. Smaller budget schools have an opportunity to take advantage of that. I doubt many will send out a release saying "Lookee we bought Michigan State's 80 foot wide 5 year old board". They will say they bought an 80 foot board from Daktronics.

(11-23-2013 10:00 AM)bullet Wrote:  Stores are designed for impulse buying. They aren't going to want to not have people there. The pre-boxed strategy is for on-line stores that don't have brick and mortar costs.

Wal-Mart is offering that in many stores. They aren't pulling groceries yet that I'm aware of but they are offering it for a number of products because Amazon is.

(11-23-2013 10:00 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-23-2013 01:14 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(11-23-2013 12:25 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-22-2013 06:10 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Considering that there are very few jobs left that can be outsourced, I think you will eventually see the minimum wage doubled to push part of the low wage work force outside the spectrum of wages that allow for government assistance and more into the category of earning enough to pay taxes. Then a couple years of hoping the higher wages spur spending creating more service jobs.

I think education is going to have some dramatic changes. For example Arkansas State has created their Technical Institute at one of the two year campuses and it awards various technical certifications. They have expanded branches to most if not all of two year campus sites and recently the Tech Institute signed a contract with a large manufacturer to handle all of their employee training.

I think what you will see happening will be employers who need skilled and semi-skilled workers will move out of the business of directly training workers and instead refer candidates to training programs run by private or public education outfits and then hire for those jobs from the pool of students that complete the training.

It is going to require a rethink of how we do a lot of stuff. For example unemployment compensation will probably become a system of a stipend plus education benefit with a very limited period of stipend outside of educational activity. You will probably see some fields like nursing and many med tech fields feature partnerships between hospitals and educational institutions with positions becoming more certification oriented than associates or bachelor's oriented to cut cost and hospitals agreeing to subsidize loans of new hires or selecting students for free or reduced tuition if they agree to work for the employer for a certain amount of time.

Larger hospitals in Georgia are already doing this, and have been for about 6 years. The nursing aspect is more work / study beyond the second year (LPN). For X-ray techs and other technical positions it is more as you describe.

Automation is going to hit the classroom next. Georgia is in the second year of an at home experiment utilizing classes developed at Chapel Hill. The cost per student is a shade over $8,000 dollars less per student per year versus the classroom experience, but it only works for self starters. So I disagree with the assessment about outsourcing. Technically automation is not outsourcing, but the net result will be the same. And, the fields that can experience automation are growing in number every year. Even in retail the move will be to even more of the Amazon type of experience. Walmart is in the fourth year of increasing this kind of service. I expect to see grocery shopping more broadly done on line at some point. Two paycheck households will place an order over the internet to their local grocery stores who will then debit their accounts. Benefit perks will be loaded for reduction of the final costs base upon patronage (no mail outs). Check outs will be reduced, stocking becomes less important, space utilization goes way up for the stores, and bags are eliminated. Grocery orders will be boxed and labeled for pick up at a specified time and available at a pick up window or door. Law enforcement is already moving toward more automation through surveillance. In retail the cost of maintaining a traditional storefront costs you more in merchandising, staffing, signage and theft, not to mention issues with parking. We are just on the cusp of sweeping change in retail. So, just as I pointed out the shifts coming in education over a year ago with many disagreeing with my statements, the change to our society is just beginning. The risks of this shift are as of yet undetermined but certainly will be the same as all things tied to the internet and the electrical grid. I see some big pluses and some rather large risks. P.S. I don't think I'd be investing heavily in commercial real estate as it has likely peaked. It will still be in demand but how it is used and how much that is required may change significantly.

Stores will still need a lot of square feet to have inventory on hand and a lot of staff to box orders for fulfillment.

Without the added profit of impulse buys the online model will be difficult to make work.

Just tonight my wife was starting dinner and realized she was out of oil resulting in a last minute trip and several dollars of impulse buy.

But there are niches that can be carved out. Look at Dollar Shave Club. I love it. Saves me money and hassle.

Stores are designed for impulse buying. They aren't going to want to not have people there. The pre-boxed strategy is for on-line stores that don't have brick and mortar costs.

Bullet, some large retailers have already begun to transition to a hybrid model. More is to come.

(11-23-2013 10:18 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(11-23-2013 10:00 AM)bullet Wrote:  Stores are designed for impulse buying. They aren't going to want to not have people there. The pre-boxed strategy is for on-line stores that don't have brick and mortar costs.

Wal-Mart is offering that in many stores. They aren't pulling groceries yet that I'm aware of but they are offering it for a number of products because Amazon is.

Correct on both counts. The grocery concept is still futuristic, but the reduced overhead, staffing, and ease of space utilization will eventually head there. BTW, it was the way many stores were run in the 30's and early 40's, so the concept is an older one. But as technology overcomes the reasons things changed years ago, some older concepts become logical for a return appearance. Why have 3 grocery stores from 1 chain in a fair size municipality when 1 distribution center can suffice nicely. I'm sure we will transition from the familiar to a newer model. It won't come all at once, but fuel costs, energy costs, theft issues (which are not as small as many believe), space utilization and signage are all costly. Not to mention the convenience aspect for the consumer. Email in an order with a pick up time and not have to fight crowds in the parking lot or store.

But make no mistake automation is changing everything. We are living in the lag right now.

(11-23-2013 09:53 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(11-23-2013 01:48 AM)JRsec Wrote:  That's the ticket, but they are going to have to have access to satellite time for self production to be distributed. I had hoped initially that the P5 conferences would be smart enough to see the potential, especially since students in broadcasting would be the best way to go with the production start up. Utilize your own graduates and grow your consumer base.

It's not often that I get to say there is an angle you haven't considered JR.

For five decades network radio and it's brother network TV didn't use satellites to distribute their content from NY and LA to Little Rock and Birmingham. They leased physical wires from AT&T and Western Union and sent an analog signal down the wires. Satellite was cheaper so it replaced the wire.

I remember KATV in Little Rock telecasting the Razorbacks in the Great Alaska Shootout and they had to explain that because the leased lines available weren't good enough they had to split the audio out of the signal send it by conventional phone so there would be a mismatch between the audio and video and the quality of the audio would not be as good. Watched a bit and it was terrible.

Getting away from those problems was another reason satellite was embraced.

Today it is possible to send a digital 1080p video signal with 5 channel audio over the wires. Except now you don't lease a wire from point A to point B. Instead you buy the capacity for an amount of bandwidth entering the internet at point A and the capacity to receive that capacity at point B.

Sporting Kansas City of Major League Soccer is doing this. They are doing a peer-to-peer transmission at their stadium and sending it to their TV affiliates (one full time in KC and I think there are two others that take it at least part time in other regional cities). They send a peer-to-peer transmission to the MLS broadcast center for redistribution. It goes on satellite for distribution to Direct, Dish, and Sports In Demand (Comcast, Cox, Brighthouse, Suddenlink, ATT, Verizon, etc).

A friend is an executive with Sporting KC and I was debating whether to buy the PPV product or online product which are similarly priced. His advice was to take the online product because it gives access on every platform, the only downside is you don't get your choice of announcers like the PPV product because MLS sends only one feed.

You can distribute to TV stations or to local cable providers (the latter costs you access to Dish and Direct subscribers in the region).

In the Sun Belt nothing causes more frustration than a game being selected for the Sun Belt network. People who have UVerse, Direct and Dish get shut out and the Cox/Comcast people will license to Suddenlink and such but not the others and there is an ESPN3/WatchESPN blackout within the region.

Last Saturday I was in Cleveland, Ohio and watched AState via ESPN3, avoiding the blackout by virtue of being in Ohio. As I watched the game on a laptop, I had Bama-Miss St on TV. At halftime WatchESPN was doing look-ins on various games. I would see a big play on my laptop and then look up to watch again on TV because the hotel was using satellite for their TV. There was a lag and I would see the plays first on laptop.

There is no reason that universities who are producing (or hiring out) their own apps cannot add a feature to stream games and at 6:50 send a push notification that the women's basketball or a baseball game starts at 7 live on the app and do the same for games that aren't distributed via the legacy network of ESPN and Fox. Games distributed via broadcast TV stations or regional games can also be made available with blackout restrictions if needed.

Thank you for a new hope for our schools to workaround prevailing issues which keeps open our ability to self produce, and hopefully self market our sports programs. Someday I believe that is an avenue that we will want to pursue for a variety of reasons, and even if we don't the mere threat of the possibility keeps enough leverage in the contract negotiations to keep things fairer than they otherwise might become.

Pretty interesting discussions so far. Sorry I wasn't able to jump in earlier. But yes, whoever was discussing that automation should not be confused with outsourcing is spot on. Outsourcing is a hot button topic, and yes there have been a number of jobs lost due to it in manufacturing. But you need to bear in mind that the job losses in manufacturing are by far due to technology advances that are reducing manhours per ton if you're talking steel/aluminum/mining production, manhours per products produced if you are talking OEMs and other manufacturers. While the job losses have been significant in manufacturing, the actual manufacturing output from the U.S. has not decreased a whole lot from the "golden era" of manufacturing in the 60s and 70s. Also, I'm very confident that the outsourcing movement that was going on is close to hitting a threshold if it hasn't already. China's cost of living has been rising at an extremely fast rate over the past decade, and when you couple that with the rise in energy costs you will have likely heard/seen that mfg costs in China are rising while costs in industrialized nations have plateaued or even decreased in certain areas. A number of companies are now moving towards an "insourcing" strategy now and even are starting to take some manufacturing back. Time will tell how the future goes, but rest assured that the U.S. will always "make stuff" - just with a much higher skilled workforce.

And that is where the rubber hits the road regarding our discussion. The jobs and careers in demand today are very different than the skills that our students have been pursuing. Our labor market is disjointed, and it should be clear to everyone that the unemployment rate will be high relative to previous recoveries due to the dislocations caused within the labor force as a result of a failure of the schools (elementary, high school, public and private universites) AND gov't policy (student loan criteria/access) to adapt to the changing realities. We sorely need bright high school kids to enter the STEM degrees at the universities. But maybe more importantly (it's debatable IMHO), students who may be academically competent but NOT the brightest need to be guided towards the vocational/technical degrees in lieu of the "soft studies" at the universities that yield graduates with woefully inadequate skills to navigate the labor markets.

This is where I think the G5 schools have the opportunity to excel and truly help the U.S. economy out in the long term. Instead of trying to compete with the land grant universities and those that have established themselves as the dominant public and private universities out there, complement them instead by moving towards the vocational/technical areas that are sorely lacking today. No offense to G5 alumni, and I truly truly mean this, but many of your universities were not designed to become "just like the dominant state schools". They were originally intended to be complimentary in nature by either 1) offering more access to the less fortunate and/or 2) focusing on those courses of study in the areas of education and technology. I know people will accuse me of saying that it's UnAmerican, socialist, etc to discourage competition between the universities. That's wrong minded thinking IMHO, because we are talking public institutions competing against other public institutions primarily, and there IS no "free market competition" when we're talking about institutions that are objectively gov't entities. With that in mind, it can be argued that it's actually a waste of taxpayer money to have some of these G5 schools trying to duplicate the efforts of its fellow state flagship universities.

I know it sounds bad to state this to a certain extent, but I think when you think about it in terms of where a schools competitive advantages can or could lie plus take into account the idea of federal/state gov't spending, it makes more sense to have the schools within the state compliment each other more than trying to cut each others throats in a zero sum game of trying to steal each others resources and allocating funds on duplicate structures. IDK, just some thoughts I had after observing how things have been going in our country lately with the recession, recovery, lack of the right skills to match the available jobs, rising tuition rates, etc.

(11-24-2013 12:50 AM)miko33 Wrote:  This is where I think the G5 schools have the opportunity to excel and truly help the U.S. economy out in the long term. Instead of trying to compete with the land grant universities and those that have established themselves as the dominant public and private universities out there, complement them instead by moving towards the vocational/technical areas that are sorely lacking today. No offense to G5 alumni, and I truly truly mean this, but many of your universities were not designed to become "just like the dominant state schools". They were originally intended to be complimentary in nature by either 1) offering more access to the less fortunate and/or 2) focusing on those courses of study in the areas of education and technology. I know people will accuse me of saying that it's UnAmerican, socialist, etc to discourage competition between the universities. That's wrong minded thinking IMHO, because we are talking public institutions competing against other public institutions primarily, and there IS no "free market competition" when we're talking about institutions that are objectively gov't entities. With that in mind, it can be argued that it's actually a waste of taxpayer money to have some of these G5 schools trying to duplicate the efforts of its fellow state flagship universities.

Where I think the tax payer resource arguement should come into play is at the level of curtailing federal aid of schools that graduate less than 65% of their students.

That will pool resources among the better state schools and reduce the directionals back down to the 8000 student regional colleges they were always designed to be.

At the graduate level though any school having the resources in place to run an PhD program should be allowed to do so. The more highly educated students the merrier.

If the competition buys down the mean GPA of graduate college from undergraduate schools from a 3.5 to a 3.3 that's just splitting hairs when you are talking 23 year olds who have already graduated college.

The bigger difference is when you're state system goes from accepting anyone out of high school with a 2.0 to a 3.0. That is a huge difference between a 35% and a 70% graduate rate for those students on average.

There is no way directionals are going to be able to compete with For Profit educational institutions that are offering certifications for 2000 dollars. Southern Illinois for example is not going to have 20,000 kids want to go 6 hours from Chicago to pick up an IT certificate they can get right down the street.

(11-23-2013 11:19 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Thank you for a new hope for our schools to workaround prevailing issues which keeps open our ability to self produce, and hopefully self market our sports programs. Someday I believe that is an avenue that we will want to pursue for a variety of reasons, and even if we don't the mere threat of the possibility keeps enough leverage in the contract negotiations to keep things fairer than they otherwise might become.

One of the great failings of human nature is we tend to forget the past and assume today's norm is THE norm.

Conferences negotiating media packages for football has only been the norm for 18 years (B10, P12, ND were doing it longer but it wasn't the norm).

Until then conferences existed for scheduling, assignment of officials, giving out awards and conducting championship events as well as meeting the desire of schools to establish permanent or quasi-permanent affiliations with peers.

The entry cost into the TV marketplace and the scarcity of channel space made it too hard for schools or conferences to sell directly to consumers.

That is less true than before. Entry costs have been deflationary. A high school TV lab can put out better audio and video than a TV network could 30 years ago.

Distribution barriers exist but they are far smaller than in the past and the current technology path seems to make it likely the barriers will become even smaller.

If cord cutting continues to grow while G5 schools turn to alternate delivery methods you could reach a point where people are asking why they have to spend $100+ a month on cable or satellite to watch Bama or Auburn while Troy, South Alabama, and UAB are available for free or for a much smaller cost via an app or to a streaming box.

The P5 have a number of advantages in history, tradition, prestige, and established fan base, but they tend to also rely on fan base with a far higher percentage of fans who did not attend the school and became fans watching TV or listening to the radio.

If your only access to them is a $1200 annual investment in TV subscription and you can get everything you want except them with a far smaller investment it may become difficult to reach those fans.

ESPN is charging just over $5 per subscriber right now. How many subscriptions would LSU need at $60 a year to net $14 million? Around 300,000 if they can get decent ad revenue.

Chances are they can get fantastic ad revenue when the platforms become more mature because the interactive nature will provide demographic data current TV provide as well as the ability to send a Mercedes ad to the subscriber in the gated community and a Dodge Ram ad to house out in the sticks.

I know from my experience that when I use the WatchESPN app or ESPN3 I am less likely to flip around to other games during commercials because it's just a little harder to do, those ads will eventually be seen as more valuable.

Miko, I think you are spot on saying the G5 have an advantage in the developing marketplace.

The history of the bulk of the G5 schools makes them more likely to adapt.

You are talking about schools that were mostly created to serve a specific limited mission such as training teachers or farmers or industrial arts instead of being state run versions of the great liberal arts colleges.

Most have dealt with a stacked deck politically that provided them with fewer dollars per student in state funding formulas and tougher battles for capital dollars. As a result they've learned to stretch the rules and find the loopholes to do what they wish to do instead of merely asking and their wish be granted.

I've visited at length with Arkansas State's system president and I doubt he is alone among his peers with his mindset.

AState embraced online education early working with a for profit supplier. That supplier now serves several competing regional institutions and now he's asking why he should affiliate with them when they are agnostic about which affiliated school a student chooses and he can replicate the infrastructure they provide at a lower cost and reduce the fees charged without changing the profit per hour.

They actively seek partnerships to provide training programs for employers.

The school is looking to open a medical school and plans to do so by partnering with a private education firm rather than a traditional state funded program because it can be done with fewer hassles and more profitably by not accepting state funding for the program.

The institution is essentially bifurcating. Raising admission standards for traditional education because its a proven path to higher retention and our state formula rewards retention while creating a number of non-traditional education programs to meet specific needs within the regional economy that certification rather than degree programs.

When you take proposals like that to the board and community who are used to having to think outside the box to get anything done it meets easier acceptance than if your school sees AAU's and high tier national universities as their peer.