(11-24-2013 07:25 PM)mptnstr@44 Wrote:  So if UC wins on 12/5 and by the grace of God UCF loses one.

It ends up in 2 way tie between UC and UCF as each end up with one conference loss. (UofL eliminated due to two conference losses).

To award the BCS bowl bid:
UC and UCF don't play each other so no head to head.
BCS bowl bid awarded to school ranked highest in the final BCS ranking (which is 2/3 poll results and 1/3 computer calculations)

Is this the correct BCS bowl scenario for UC?

Yessir

If UC beats Louisville and UCF loses either of their remaining games, I would be surprised if UC wasn't the higher rated BCS school. Again late losses can be deadly and UC would have won their last 7 games, including beating a top 20 team that has a lot of hype. Voters are likely looking for an excuse to drop UCF, so they'd probably drop like a rock in the polls, while UC would likely go way above them and the computer numbers would probably start to even out, so I'd expect UC to be higher in the BCS and I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't even all that close, like 5+ spots.

Here my off the cuff take on it .

If UC beats Louisville ..and UCF loses a game I would expect (guess) that UC would be ranked 19-20 in the human polls . UCF would fall out and probably sit around 26-27

The computer rankings are the wild card. Right now UC's computer average is 46 . Its dragging our overall BCS score down a couple notches from our human poll average ( this week we are #28 in BCS) . While our computer score will improve with a Louisville win , I suspect overall it will cost us a spot in the overall average .... I'd say our overall BCS average would sit at 21-ish

UCF on the other hand gets a small, 1 spot lift from their computer scores (currently average at 17). Their human poll average is 20 and overall they are #19 in the BCS. I would put UCF at best #25 in the BCS with a loss in their remaining games.

I am therefore very comfortable UC gets the nod in a tie with UCF. Now ..the hard part is it actually has to happen .

(11-25-2013 10:35 AM)BigDawg Wrote:  If UC beats Louisville and UCF loses either of their remaining games, I would be surprised if UC wasn't the higher rated BCS school. Again late losses can be deadly and UC would have won their last 7 games, including beating a top 20 team that has a lot of hype. Voters are likely looking for an excuse to drop UCF, so they'd probably drop like a rock in the polls, while UC would likely go way above them and the computer numbers would probably start to even out, so I'd expect UC to be higher in the BCS and I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't even all that close, like 5+ spots.

Unfortunately we are 9 spots below UCF.

(11-25-2013 01:33 PM)Bearcat Otto Wrote:  

(11-25-2013 10:35 AM)BigDawg Wrote:  If UC beats Louisville and UCF loses either of their remaining games, I would be surprised if UC wasn't the higher rated BCS school. Again late losses can be deadly and UC would have won their last 7 games, including beating a top 20 team that has a lot of hype. Voters are likely looking for an excuse to drop UCF, so they'd probably drop like a rock in the polls, while UC would likely go way above them and the computer numbers would probably start to even out, so I'd expect UC to be higher in the BCS and I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't even all that close, like 5+ spots.

Unfortunately we are 9 spots below UCF.

Easy to pickup that much ground if UC wins and UCF loses. We would be beating a team ahead of us and UCF would lose to someone ranked low as often a loss for a team results in a huge drop in the BCS ranking.

For example, media darling Texas A&M fell 9 spots last week with a loss at Miss St (A bottom SEC school).

Baylor dropped 5 spots losing at the No. 10 team and still only has 1 loss.

A loss by UCF to either USF or SMU would be considered by most to be much worse of a loss (Whether true or not), so I'd be surprised if UCF didn't fall at least 10 spots and I'd actually think they'd tumble out of the top 30

Actually Texas A&M lost to LSU who was previously ranked #22 in the previous poll. And they still dropped 9 spots in this weeks poll.

(11-25-2013 02:21 PM)Bearcat Jimmy -93 Wrote:  Actually Texas A&M lost to LSU who was previously ranked #22 in the previous poll. And they still dropped 9 spots in this weeks poll.

Thanks for catching that. Apparently I got taken to last year's schedule somehow when I clicked the link (I knew that didn't sound right). That sells my argument more. They lost to good SEC school and dropped 9 spots. How far you think UCF would drop with a loss?

If UCF loses to USF they will plummet. They might not get a single vote. That's just how it goes.

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