well after Stanford loses changes things a bit.... probably kills any hope for 2 P12 schools making the BCS.. Stanford isn't going at large.

title Alabama vs Florida St
Sugar Auburn/Texas A&M vs Fresno/NIU
Orange Clemson vs Oklahoma/Michigan St/Wisconsin
Fiesta Baylor/Oklahoma St vs UCF
Rose Ohio St vs Oregon

It'll be interesting to see the polls/cpu with Ohio St Baylor tomorrow.

(11-17-2013 02:27 AM)stever20 Wrote:  well after Stanford loses changes things a bit.... probably kills any hope for 2 P12 schools making the BCS.. Stanford isn't going at large.

title Alabama vs Florida St
Sugar Auburn/Texas A&M vs Fresno/NIU
Orange Clemson vs Oklahoma/Michigan St/Wisconsin
Fiesta Baylor/Oklahoma St vs UCF
Rose Ohio St vs Oregon

It'll be interesting to see the polls/cpu with Ohio St Baylor tomorrow.

Even if the rest of the season pans out like you think I'd be surprised if the Sugar took NIU or Fresno over UCF, so I think the non AQ goes to the Fiesta if there is one.

Pretty hard to predict who gets the last at large spot assuming either NIU or Fresno get to the BCS. Wisconsin has to move up 5 spots just to be eligible, I'm not sure that happens. By Vegas odds the most likely outcome in the Big 12 would be Baylor beating Okie State and Okie State beating the Sooners. Which means the Big12 might not have two eligible teams. Also, the Ducks winning the Pac12 CCG isn't a lock, especially if they have to play UCLA again now that the Bruins have reincarnated Bo Jackson.

My guess

Title game
Bama v FSU

Rose
Oregon v Ohio State

Sugar
Mizzou v UCF

Fiesta
Okie State v Fresno State

Orange
Clemson v Baylor

DP

yeah I flubbed that up..

If what you're saying is true Baylor beats Oklahoma St- they win the Big 12- and go to the Fiesta. Odds are really good Oklahoma/Oklahoma St winner is top 14 if nothing else- but I think Wisconsin probably does get up when all the teams beat up each other in the Big 12 and SEC.

Title - Alabama vs. Florida State
Rose - Ohio State vs. Oregon
Sugar - Missouri vs. Central Florida
Orange - Clemson vs. Stanford
Fiesta - Baylor vs. Fresno State

Even after Stanford's loss last night, they should be ranked well among the two-loss teams (Auburn, Missouri/Texas A&M winner, Clemson, Stanford, Oklahoma State), and I can see the Orange Bowl wanting to take a P5 team after getting stuck with Northern Illinois last year. One two-loss SEC team won't make the BCS due to the conference limit, so for the Orange Bowl will come down to the most desirable of Oklahoma State, Central Florida, Fresno State, Stanford, or Northern Illinois.

(11-17-2013 08:00 AM)chargeradio Wrote:  Title - Alabama vs. Florida State
Rose - Ohio State vs. Oregon
Sugar - Missouri vs. Central Florida
Orange - Clemson vs. Stanford
Fiesta - Baylor vs. Fresno State

Even after Stanford's loss last night, they should be ranked well among the two-loss teams (Auburn, Missouri/Texas A&M winner, Clemson, Stanford, Oklahoma State), and I can see the Orange Bowl wanting to take a P5 team after getting stuck with Northern Illinois last year. One two-loss SEC team won't make the BCS due to the conference limit, so for the Orange Bowl will come down to the most desirable of Oklahoma State, Central Florida, Fresno State, Stanford, or Northern Illinois.

Oklahoma likely gets the nod ahead of Stanford if they beat Oklahoma State.

Sugar isn't passing on a P5 team to take UCF or NIU

Fiesta is the one that gets stuck with it this year and it'll Baylor vs UCF or Baylor vs NIU

The order of selection will be Sugar (replacement for #1 Alabama), Orange (replacement for #2 Florida State), Orange, Sugar, Fiesta. If Fresno State or NIU qualifies, either the Sugar or Orange has to take Central Florida since the American has an AQ.

(11-17-2013 08:40 AM)chargeradio Wrote:  The order of selection will be Sugar (replacement for #1 Alabama), Orange (replacement for #2 Florida State), Orange, Sugar, Fiesta. If Fresno State or NIU qualifies, either the Sugar or Orange has to take Central Florida since the American has an AQ.

Orange isn't taking UCF. Orange gets the first pick after the replacements. That means they'll take a power conference team.

Only way MSU makes a BCS bowl is if they beat O$U and go to the Rose Bowl, we aren't winning over the polls enough to make it to a big bowl without that win.

Sent from my LG-VM696 using Tapatalk 2

Looks like a fight between Orange and Sugar to not have to take UCF

(11-17-2013 09:43 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  Looks like a fight between Orange and Sugar to not have to take UCF

What's there to fight about? The Orange picks first, so they'll get a P5 at large team. Sugar will have to pick either UCF or Fresno State.

I actually botched my earlier explanation - either the Sugar or Fiesta has to take UCF since they have the last two regular picks. The Sugar Bowl will take an SEC team with its replacement pick.

I could see the Orange Bowl taking UCF since the Knights are an in-state team for them, but I'll think they'll take a P5 team over the American Champion or non-AQ champion.

I don't know if the human polls would work out in favor of Northern Illinois, but there is a shot that they also finish in the Top 14 - it may be very hard for the BCS to collectively pass on an undefeated team. NIU is in the Top 12 in 3 computer polls, but really needs to make up some ground in the USA Today poll.

(11-17-2013 10:15 AM)chargeradio Wrote:  I actually botched my earlier explanation - either the Sugar or Fiesta has to take UCF since they have the last two regular picks. The Sugar Bowl will take an SEC team with its replacement pick.

I could see the Orange Bowl taking UCF since the Knights are an in-state team for them, but I'll think they'll take a P5 team over the American Champion or non-AQ champion.

I don't know if the human polls would work out in favor of Northern Illinois, but there is a shot that they also finish in the Top 14 - it may be very hard for the BCS to collectively pass on an undefeated team. NIU is in the Top 12 in 3 computer polls, but really needs to make up some ground in the USA Today poll.

This is what I'm thinking

Orange will be Clemson vs UCF

Fiesta will be Baylor vs Fresno/NIU

Sugar will be SEC#2 vs B12/B1G #2

(11-17-2013 09:03 AM)DexterDevil Wrote:  Only way MSU makes a BCS bowl is if they beat O$U and go to the Rose Bowl, we aren't winning over the polls enough to make it to a big bowl without that win.

You're right, the big obstacle to MSU or Wisconsin getting into a BCS game is getting into the final top 14.

If none of the undefeated teams lose, there are three at-large spots. Presumably, two of them go to an SEC "replacement" for Alabama in the Sugar and Clemson as an ACC "replacement" for FSU in the Orange. The last at-large (probably also in the Orange) would then be between Stanford (if they win out) and, if either is in the top 14, MSU or the OU-Ok St winner.

(11-17-2013 10:15 AM)chargeradio Wrote:  I actually botched my earlier explanation - either the Sugar or Fiesta has to take UCF since they have the last two regular picks. The Sugar Bowl will take an SEC team with its replacement pick.

I could see the Orange Bowl taking UCF since the Knights are an in-state team for them, but I'll think they'll take a P5 team over the American Champion or non-AQ champion.

I don't know if the human polls would work out in favor of Northern Illinois, but there is a shot that they also finish in the Top 14 - it may be very hard for the BCS to collectively pass on an undefeated team. NIU is in the Top 12 in 3 computer polls, but really needs to make up some ground in the USA Today poll.

The Sugar takes SEC team with it's replacement pick. true
Orange takes ACC team with it's replacement pick. true

Orange gets 1st at large selection and takes a P5 team.

Sugar only would have 2 choices. UCF or Fresno/NIU.
Fiesta gets the other

This week's AP poll has Baylor #3, 8 points ahead of OSU.

AP doesn't count for BCS standings, of course. http://collegefootball.ap.org/poll

Coaches' poll has OSU #3 and 18 points ahead of Baylor. Of interest for BCS at-large eligibility: OK St #9, Stanford #12, MSU #13, Wisconsin #17.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/pol...19574846=1

Bowl execs are gonna be pizzed at the ratings for those 2 games....but this si the last year that the former BE gets a slot so only one bowl has to fall on the ratings sword from now on.

(11-17-2013 11:17 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(11-17-2013 09:03 AM)DexterDevil Wrote:  Only way MSU makes a BCS bowl is if they beat O$U and go to the Rose Bowl, we aren't winning over the polls enough to make it to a big bowl without that win.

You're right, the big obstacle to MSU or Wisconsin getting into a BCS game is getting into the final top 14.

If none of the undefeated teams lose, there are three at-large spots. Presumably, two of them go to an SEC "replacement" for Alabama in the Sugar and Clemson as an ACC "replacement" for FSU in the Orange. The last at-large (probably also in the Orange) would then be between Stanford (if they win out) and, if either is in the top 14, MSU or the OU-Ok St winner.

Yep, that's what I think it probably comes down to as well. Although Stever might be right about Wisconsin sneaking in there if they don't lose again. (Palm has Wisconsin making it)

And I still think it is very possible Ok St beats Baylor, which would shake things up. I also think if UCLA gets to the CCG they might beat Oregon.

coaches out. Baylor picked up 7 votes on Ohio St- margin now 18.