Glancing quickly at the outcomes....

Duke benefits the most if they are involved in a 3-way tie where "overall winning percentage" is the tiebreaker. Miami has several scenarios where they also would win a 3-way tie on "overall".

However, neither Georgia Tech or Virginia Tech win a 3-way tie on "overall".

(11-14-2013 03:58 PM)4x4hokies Wrote:  

(11-14-2013 03:46 PM)ecuacc4ever Wrote:  

(11-14-2013 02:53 PM)4x4hokies Wrote:  

(11-14-2013 08:00 AM)ecuacc4ever Wrote:  Nope -- 2048 (but just in case the blogger is wrong, I'll double-check)

There are only 10 games affecting the Coastal. So 2 to the 10th is 1024. I worked it out an a spreadsheet too.

GT wins a large part of the scenarios because they only have one game left so 50% of the scenarios involve them beating Clemson.

You likely omitted Georgia @ Georgia Tech. That will affect any tiebreaker involving GT and 2 other teams -- specifically the "overall winning percentage"

Tell me which scenarios come down to overall winning percentage?

You would have to have a three way tie that didn't involve Duke or Miami since both were undefeated out of conference (GT already lost one). So that would be something with VT, GT, UNC, and Pitt. VT won against all three so they win every grouping of those they are involved in. So that leaves GT, UNC and Pitt. GT won against both of those so they win every three way tie they are in with them.

So there are only 1024 outcomes that make a difference.

^ Yeah.. I'm working on capturing that data now....

I can't find any scenarios where UNC or Pitt can make it to the championship game. So it is down to Duke, VT, GT, and Miami.

^ That is correct -- each, however, can tie for first, so I had to account for those games...

The funny thing is that a GT win tonight makes things much easier to figure than a GT loss does.

^ Yeah.

Now that I have stored all of the scenarios in a database table, it's easy to find some answers, like this:

GT is mathematically eliminated from Coastal contention with a loss tonight and a Virginia Tech win on Saturday. They are alive with a loss tonight and a Maryland win -- regardless of the outcome of Miami v. Duke.

It seems with three conference loses, a team is pretty much out. Or do only division losses count? (Its been way too long for even a remote chance at even a wining season down here that I ain't sure about how the divisional tie breakers work)

(11-14-2013 08:49 PM)Laettners Legacy Wrote:  It seems with three conference loses, a team is pretty much out. Or do only division losses count? (Its been way too long for even a remote chance at even a wining season down here that I ain't sure about how the divisional tie breakers work)

No, three conference losses is a very plausible scenario. It creates an enormous amount of scenarios though depending on who is tied at three losses. Any of: Miami, Duke, VT, GT, Pitt, and UNC can be tied at three losses. As many as 5 teams can be tied at three losses actually. Four losses is the absolute deal breaker.

I meant if GT loses tonight, they have three loses. It seems unlikely that both va tech AND Miami/Duke winner both lose again. But I guess it could happen. I have no idea how to work out multi three loss teams with no two loss teams...

(11-14-2013 09:57 PM)Laettners Legacy Wrote:  I meant if GT loses tonight, they have three loses. It seems unlikely that both va tech AND Miami/Duke winner both lose again. But I guess it could happen. I have no idea how to work out multi three loss teams with no two loss teams...

Tie breaking goes like:
Head to head
Best record against those tied
Best divisional record
Best record overall
(highest ranking I think but it never gets this far)

At any point that a team is eliminated from the tie you go back to the top with the new group.

Updated ACC Coastal Chart -- Link

http://sportsched.com/accproj2013

This is a "beta" interactive (psuedo) scenario builder based on the data from this morning's run. Basically, pick the game outcomes you're interested in and "Search" away.

Please enjoy, but please beware it's still in 'beta'.

Interesting discovery based on my testing:
----------------------------------------------
Miami is eliminated with a VT win and a Miami loss at Duke. However, Duke is still alive regardless of the results from VT/Maryland and Duke/Miami

Beta-test away...

With the GT loss last night Duke is the only team that controls their own destiny. Win and they control the appropriate tiebreakers.

With the losses by GT and VT, coupled with Duke's win, the Blue Devils control their destiny -- however, they must win out.

So what is Duke's percentage now that they've beaten Miami and VT and Pitt lost?

(11-17-2013 03:05 AM)ChrisLords Wrote:  So what is Duke's percentage now that they've beaten Miami and VT and Pitt lost?

40% -- see for yourself