How this year looks with the BCS vs. CFP
I wanted to look at how the bowl picture looks different this year with the BCS vs. other with the CFP next year. For this post, I'm assuming 3 things.
1. Higher ranked teams win against lesser ranked teams the rest of the season (not going to actually happen, but I have to assume something).
2. The CFP committee rankings will probably be close to the AP and BCS ranking.
3. There will be some internal/external pressure not to have too many teams from one conference.
BCS: Going by current rankings, Alabama and Florida State make the BCS Championship Game. Ohio State and Stanford are automatically in the Rose Bowl and Baylor is automatically in the Fiesta. Central Florida is automatically in the BCS as American champ and I'm assuming one of Fresno State or Northern Illinois is in the top 12 or above Central Florida (going with Fresno State here since they are the higher ranked).
With those automatically in, the Sugar and Orange Bowls get first pick at replacements. Both will likely choose to keep relations with their conferences strong and pick replacements teams from the SEC/ACC, meaning the Sugar takes Auburn (2nd highest ranked SEC right now, could replace them with several others) and the Orange takes Clemson. After those two bowls, the selection order goes Orange, Sugar, Fiesta. The Orange has a few options. I think the most likely (assuming no upsets remember) is Oregon as they will be highest ranked. The Sugar chooses next and takes Central Florida over Fresno State. The Fiesta then takes Fresno State.
BCS National Championship Game: Alabama vs. Florida State
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Stanford
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl: Auburn vs. UCF
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor vs. Fresno State
CFP (with Rose and Sugar as semi-finals):
Set-up: Next year the Rose and Sugar Bowls will be the semi-finals. The Orange Bowl will be ACC vs. someone from the SEC/Big Ten/Notre Dame (assuming no rematches). However, the hosts bowls (Fiesta, Cotton, Peach) get to grab Big Ten/SEC teams first (and possible Notre Dame, haven't seen that written out). The highest of the Group of 5 (MAC, American, Conference USA, Mountain West, Sunbelt) will be in a CFP bowl. Any Big Ten/PAC-12/SEC/Big 12 champ that does not make the CFP will automatically be in a CFP since they lost their spot in the Rose/Sugar (this does not apply to non-champs).
Semi-final bowls: Based on current results, the playoff committee would almost certainly take Alabama, Florida State, Ohio State, and Baylor. They might play around with the ranking more than the polls, but they'd probably stick to that order. As #1 Alabama would be placed in the Sugar Bowl. That would put #2 Florida State in the Rose Bowl. There might be some argument about #3/4, but Ohio State would probably win out (if we assume this closely matches the AP) plus that puts a Big Ten team in the Rose and set-ups SEC/Big 12 in the Sugar (the new normal next year) so that's an extra reason to leave things as the polls have them.
Other bowls: Clemson would automatically move into the Orange Bowl to replace Florida State. Based on current ranking, UCF would be the Group of 5 automatic team if we imagine the committee will think like the AP (although Fresno State is ahead right now in the BCS). Meanwhile Stanford would automatically be in a bowl since they were displaced as conference champ from the Rose Bowl. That would leave 4 more spots in the hosts bowls and 1 in the Orange.
I think the CFP would definitely take Oregon. After that, the next teams are harder to judge based on remaining schedules. 4 SEC teams are after that, but they have a lot of games against each other left (as well as South Carolina vs. Clemson). Since I'm going with the assumption for this post that the higher ranked team wins all games that will leave some real choices for the committee. I don't think they'd want 3 at large picks to be SEC teams if they could help it either. I'll say they go with Auburn, Missouri, and Oklahoma State to go along with Oregon. Matching up those teams, I think the committee would put PAC-12 champ Stanford in the closest bowl so they go to the Fiesta and match them against the highest non-PAC-12 team which is Auburn. They would put then put Oklahoma State in the nearby Cotton and match them up with former conference rival Missouri. That would leave Oregon vs. Central Florida in the Peach.
Note: I think there is a lot of possible variation here. I could see Northern Illinois or Fresno State getting in here. I could see Texas A&M, South Carolina, or Michigan State as well.
That leaves the Orange Bowl's 2nd spot. It's hard to judge exactly the ranking at that point. Going with the assumption the higher ranked team wins all these games, Texas A&M, South Carolina, and Michigan State all have an 1 extra loss. South Carolina would not be chosen however since they will have just played Clemson. I'm guessing Michigan State will be slightly higher since they will get added attention based on going to the Big Ten Championship Game and there will be a push against having 4 SEC teams in. It could just as easily be reversed though and would probably depend a lot on how A&M and MSU looked against Missouri and Ohio State (in reality, I think A&M will beat Missouri, but I'm going with the assumption all higher ranked teams win for this senario).
Sugar Bowl (semi-final): Alabama vs. Baylor
Rose Bowl (semi-final): Florida State vs. Ohio State
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Michigan State
Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Missouri
Fiesta Bowl: Stanford vs. Auburn
Peach Bowl: Oregon vs. Central Florida
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