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BCS week 4 analysis
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stever20 Online
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BCS week 4 analysis
Looking at the polls...

AP(I know not in BCS but...)
Baylor is within 7 votes of Ohio St. That will be fatal to Ohio St eventually should it matter). Stanford within 38 votes, even that could be fatal to Ohio St)

Coaches
Baylor within 25 votes of Ohio St. That is fatal to Ohio St. Stanford less of a threat here- 94 votes out
Fresno up to 14 this week. 201 votes ahead of NIU. The interesting part is if Fresno loses, we could wind up being safe if you will- UCF is 23 votes ahead of NIU this week.
11-10-2013 12:57 PM
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jaminandjachin Offline
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RE: BCS week 4 analysis
If Baylor keeps winning they will jump Ohio State. This is the fatal flaw in the B1G expansion plans. When you bring on mediocre football programs it hurts your SOS. BIG already has this problem and that's before Maryland and Rutgers show up.
11-10-2013 01:20 PM
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stever20 Online
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RE: BCS week 4 analysis
If this was next year- Ohio St would have played instead of Wisconsin, Michigan St. The biggest things though- instead of Illinois and Purdue in their division they would have Maryland and Rutgers. That's a big plus. I mean- Maryland did beat West Virginia OOC. That's something neither Illinois or Purdue could have done. Maryland and Rutgers went 7-1 combined OOC this year- with 1 FCS wins(and Old Dominion, so 2 though the computers all don't look at it that way). Illinois and Purdue went 4-4- with 2 FCS wins. Ohio St would have been helped quite a bit by the switch.
11-10-2013 01:35 PM
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jaminandjachin Offline
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RE: BCS week 4 analysis
You would be right if computers continued to play a role in picking the teams. Starting next year it will be all about eye test and perception.
11-10-2013 01:45 PM
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RE: BCS week 4 analysis
(11-10-2013 01:45 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  You would be right if computers continued to play a role in picking the teams. Starting next year it will be all about eye test and perception.

The committee will have objective numbers though. I think to say that it'll all be eye test is quite frankly not right at all. Also quite frankly- beating Maryland or Rutgers would blow away beating Illinois or Purdue even from a perception standpoint. Maryland was 4-0 OOC and get 2-3 wins in Big Ten that means they're a 7-5 team. That's better than beating a 2-10 Purdue team by a mile.
11-10-2013 01:50 PM
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Wedge Offline
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RE: BCS week 4 analysis
(11-10-2013 01:45 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  You would be right if computers continued to play a role in picking the teams. Starting next year it will be all about eye test and perception.

Yeah. Eye test, perception, and the committee's politicking and groupthink. They can use the statistics given to them (computer rankings, strength of schedule, whatever) to justify their gut-level selections, rather than as the basis for their selections. Just like the basketball committee does.
11-10-2013 01:50 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: BCS week 4 analysis
(11-10-2013 01:20 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  If Baylor keeps winning they will jump Ohio State. This is the fatal flaw in the B1G expansion plans. When you bring on mediocre football programs it hurts your SOS. BIG already has this problem and that's before Maryland and Rutgers show up.

The B1G expansion plans probably have more to do with money than whether more or fewer B1G teams earn high rankings in the BCS standings.
11-10-2013 01:51 PM
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RE: BCS week 4 analysis
(11-10-2013 12:57 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Looking at the polls...

AP(I know not in BCS but...)
Baylor is within 7 votes of Ohio St. That will be fatal to Ohio St eventually should it matter). Stanford within 38 votes, even that could be fatal to Ohio St)

Coaches
Baylor within 25 votes of Ohio St. That is fatal to Ohio St. Stanford less of a threat here- 94 votes out
Fresno up to 14 this week. 201 votes ahead of NIU. The interesting part is if Fresno loses, we could wind up being safe if you will- UCF is 23 votes ahead of NIU this week.

I don't know if it's really fatal to Ohio State - if Baylor was going to pass OSU in the human rankings, it would have been this week when they absolutely crushed a top 10 marquee name (Oklahoma) while the Buckeyes were on a bye week. It seems pretty clear that the humans don't want to dislodge OSU unless they lose (just as they didn't want to dislodge Oregon until they lost despite a couple of monster wins by FSU over top 10 teams). Plus, once again, remember that Ohio State is still projected to play Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship Game (who keeps climbing in the rankings), so that's not reflected in the current schedule. A win over MSU is likely going to be looked at by the humans as about the same as a win over Oklahoma State (which is Baylor's best game left), so Baylor is going to have to hope for a monster computer advantage if it comes down to them and OSU (and even if Baylor has the edge this particular week on that metric, that's going to dissipate once OSU adds on the extra conference championship game that Baylor won't be playing).
11-10-2013 01:56 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #9
RE: BCS week 4 analysis
(11-10-2013 01:56 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(11-10-2013 12:57 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Looking at the polls...

AP(I know not in BCS but...)
Baylor is within 7 votes of Ohio St. That will be fatal to Ohio St eventually should it matter). Stanford within 38 votes, even that could be fatal to Ohio St)

Coaches
Baylor within 25 votes of Ohio St. That is fatal to Ohio St. Stanford less of a threat here- 94 votes out
Fresno up to 14 this week. 201 votes ahead of NIU. The interesting part is if Fresno loses, we could wind up being safe if you will- UCF is 23 votes ahead of NIU this week.

I don't know if it's really fatal to Ohio State - if Baylor was going to pass OSU in the human rankings, it would have been this week when they absolutely crushed a top 10 marquee name (Oklahoma) while the Buckeyes were on a bye week. It seems pretty clear that the humans don't want to dislodge OSU unless they lose (just as they didn't want to dislodge Oregon until they lost despite a couple of monster wins by FSU over top 10 teams). Plus, once again, remember that Ohio State is still projected to play Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship Game (who keeps climbing in the rankings), so that's not reflected in the current schedule. A win over MSU is likely going to be looked at by the humans as about the same as a win over Oklahoma State (which is Baylor's best game left), so Baylor is going to have to hope for a monster computer advantage if it comes down to them and OSU (and even if Baylor has the edge this particular week on that metric, that's going to dissipate once OSU adds on the extra conference championship game that Baylor won't be playing).

it's absolutely fatal. If the margin continues to be that small, if Baylor is just ahead of Ohio St in all the computers, Baylor jumps them. Both Baylor and Ohio State have the same number of games left(including the championship game for OSU). We'll see tonight with the computers, but Baylor's remaining schedule is 26-12 right now. Ohio St is 21-15 to include Mich St in the title game. And, that's if they play MSU. Nebraska will have something to say about that next week- game is at Nebraska.

Remember, if Baylor is down just by 53 Harris votes and 31 coaches votes- if all computers or all but 1 computer have Baylor ahead of Ohio St- Baylor gets the nod.

You have to remember as well- going into this week- here's the margins:
AP- 94 now down to 7
Coaches- 82 now down to 25
Harris- 150
11-10-2013 02:07 PM
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Wedge Offline
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RE: BCS week 4 analysis
(11-10-2013 01:56 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Baylor is going to have to hope for a monster computer advantage if it comes down to them and OSU (and even if Baylor has the edge this particular week on that metric, that's going to dissipate once OSU adds on the extra conference championship game that Baylor won't be playing).

Won't really be an "extra" game in the sense that the games that have already been played are already baked into the computers, and each team has 4 games remaining including the Big Ten title game.

Baylor has a definite SOS edge in remaining games, but it might not be enough to move them far enough ahead of OSU in computer average.

Code:
BAYLOR                             OHIO STATE

Texas Tech (7-3) at Jerryworld     at Illinois (3-6)
at Oklahoma State (8-1)            at Indiana (4-5)
at TCU (4-6)                       Michigan (6-3)
Texas (7-2)                        MSU (8-1) or Nebraska (7-2)
(This post was last modified: 11-10-2013 02:16 PM by Wedge.)
11-10-2013 02:15 PM
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RE: BCS week 4 analysis
(11-10-2013 02:07 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-10-2013 01:56 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(11-10-2013 12:57 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Looking at the polls...

AP(I know not in BCS but...)
Baylor is within 7 votes of Ohio St. That will be fatal to Ohio St eventually should it matter). Stanford within 38 votes, even that could be fatal to Ohio St)

Coaches
Baylor within 25 votes of Ohio St. That is fatal to Ohio St. Stanford less of a threat here- 94 votes out
Fresno up to 14 this week. 201 votes ahead of NIU. The interesting part is if Fresno loses, we could wind up being safe if you will- UCF is 23 votes ahead of NIU this week.

I don't know if it's really fatal to Ohio State - if Baylor was going to pass OSU in the human rankings, it would have been this week when they absolutely crushed a top 10 marquee name (Oklahoma) while the Buckeyes were on a bye week. It seems pretty clear that the humans don't want to dislodge OSU unless they lose (just as they didn't want to dislodge Oregon until they lost despite a couple of monster wins by FSU over top 10 teams). Plus, once again, remember that Ohio State is still projected to play Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship Game (who keeps climbing in the rankings), so that's not reflected in the current schedule. A win over MSU is likely going to be looked at by the humans as about the same as a win over Oklahoma State (which is Baylor's best game left), so Baylor is going to have to hope for a monster computer advantage if it comes down to them and OSU (and even if Baylor has the edge this particular week on that metric, that's going to dissipate once OSU adds on the extra conference championship game that Baylor won't be playing).

it's absolutely fatal. If the margin continues to be that small, if Baylor is just ahead of Ohio St in all the computers, Baylor jumps them. Both Baylor and Ohio State have the same number of games left(including the championship game for OSU). We'll see tonight with the computers, but Baylor's remaining schedule is 26-12 right now. Ohio St is 21-15 to include Mich St in the title game. And, that's if they play MSU. Nebraska will have something to say about that next week- game is at Nebraska.

Remember, if Baylor is down just by 53 Harris votes and 31 coaches votes- if all computers or all but 1 computer have Baylor ahead of Ohio St- Baylor gets the nod.

You have to remember as well- going into this week- here's the margins:
AP- 94 now down to 7
Coaches- 82 now down to 25
Harris- 150

Maybe, but that movement was still after the very best possible chance for Baylor to jump OSU - demolishing a top 10 marquee program without the Buckeyes even playing that week. There's not going to be that type of dichotomy on any given weekend going forward. As we've seen, there's simply a lot of intertia in these polls. I would have jumped FSU over Oregon the week that they destroyed Clemson, yet the pollsters just don't like switching those positions at this stage of the year without a loss.

What I just don't like is declarative statements that something *will* happen or not. Baylor could jump OSU, or OSU could maintain their position. I find either way to be about equal in terms of chances. Nothing is that obvious (and if it were, that obviousness would be better served making wagers in Vegas to make money off of it).
11-10-2013 02:19 PM
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Post: #12
RE: BCS week 4 analysis
I'm sorry- but the fact is if the margins are what they are now, and Baylor is ahead of Ohio St in 5/6 computers, Baylor will be ahead of Ohio St. There is no debate about that. Ohio St needs a lot bigger lead to make the computers not matter.
11-10-2013 02:30 PM
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RE: BCS week 4 analysis
(11-10-2013 02:19 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(11-10-2013 02:07 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-10-2013 01:56 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(11-10-2013 12:57 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Looking at the polls...

AP(I know not in BCS but...)
Baylor is within 7 votes of Ohio St. That will be fatal to Ohio St eventually should it matter). Stanford within 38 votes, even that could be fatal to Ohio St)

Coaches
Baylor within 25 votes of Ohio St. That is fatal to Ohio St. Stanford less of a threat here- 94 votes out
Fresno up to 14 this week. 201 votes ahead of NIU. The interesting part is if Fresno loses, we could wind up being safe if you will- UCF is 23 votes ahead of NIU this week.

I don't know if it's really fatal to Ohio State - if Baylor was going to pass OSU in the human rankings, it would have been this week when they absolutely crushed a top 10 marquee name (Oklahoma) while the Buckeyes were on a bye week. It seems pretty clear that the humans don't want to dislodge OSU unless they lose (just as they didn't want to dislodge Oregon until they lost despite a couple of monster wins by FSU over top 10 teams). Plus, once again, remember that Ohio State is still projected to play Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship Game (who keeps climbing in the rankings), so that's not reflected in the current schedule. A win over MSU is likely going to be looked at by the humans as about the same as a win over Oklahoma State (which is Baylor's best game left), so Baylor is going to have to hope for a monster computer advantage if it comes down to them and OSU (and even if Baylor has the edge this particular week on that metric, that's going to dissipate once OSU adds on the extra conference championship game that Baylor won't be playing).

it's absolutely fatal. If the margin continues to be that small, if Baylor is just ahead of Ohio St in all the computers, Baylor jumps them. Both Baylor and Ohio State have the same number of games left(including the championship game for OSU). We'll see tonight with the computers, but Baylor's remaining schedule is 26-12 right now. Ohio St is 21-15 to include Mich St in the title game. And, that's if they play MSU. Nebraska will have something to say about that next week- game is at Nebraska.

Remember, if Baylor is down just by 53 Harris votes and 31 coaches votes- if all computers or all but 1 computer have Baylor ahead of Ohio St- Baylor gets the nod.

You have to remember as well- going into this week- here's the margins:
AP- 94 now down to 7
Coaches- 82 now down to 25
Harris- 150

Maybe, but that movement was still after the very best possible chance for Baylor to jump OSU - demolishing a top 10 marquee program without the Buckeyes even playing that week. There's not going to be that type of dichotomy on any given weekend going forward. As we've seen, there's simply a lot of intertia in these polls. I would have jumped FSU over Oregon the week that they destroyed Clemson, yet the pollsters just don't like switching those positions at this stage of the year without a loss.

What I just don't like is declarative statements that something *will* happen or not. Baylor could jump OSU, or OSU could maintain their position. I find either way to be about equal in terms of chances. Nothing is that obvious (and if it were, that obviousness would be better served making wagers in Vegas to make money off of it).

Frank, I don't think it will come down to all of this as further losses among the elite are possible, if not in the regular season, then certainly in the CCG's and that includes the Buckeyes. However, I do think that the Big 10 may have miscalculated the SOS issues for now. Furthermore, it's not humans vs computers. It's humans vs the always biased concepts of a few humans who programmed the computers. And I agree with Wedge that all the polls and computers represent is an elaborate foil to give the human committee a scapegoat crutch for doing what they deemed expedient anyway. In that regard no doubt Ohio State has more pull than Baylor. But in that issue are all the reasons that this system must end. Earn it on the field as all other ways are inherently unfair. And those who rely upon them inherently corrupted.
(This post was last modified: 11-10-2013 02:37 PM by JRsec.)
11-10-2013 02:36 PM
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RE: BCS week 4 analysis
(11-10-2013 02:19 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(11-10-2013 02:07 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-10-2013 01:56 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(11-10-2013 12:57 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Looking at the polls...

AP(I know not in BCS but...)
Baylor is within 7 votes of Ohio St. That will be fatal to Ohio St eventually should it matter). Stanford within 38 votes, even that could be fatal to Ohio St)

Coaches
Baylor within 25 votes of Ohio St. That is fatal to Ohio St. Stanford less of a threat here- 94 votes out
Fresno up to 14 this week. 201 votes ahead of NIU. The interesting part is if Fresno loses, we could wind up being safe if you will- UCF is 23 votes ahead of NIU this week.

I don't know if it's really fatal to Ohio State - if Baylor was going to pass OSU in the human rankings, it would have been this week when they absolutely crushed a top 10 marquee name (Oklahoma) while the Buckeyes were on a bye week. It seems pretty clear that the humans don't want to dislodge OSU unless they lose (just as they didn't want to dislodge Oregon until they lost despite a couple of monster wins by FSU over top 10 teams). Plus, once again, remember that Ohio State is still projected to play Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship Game (who keeps climbing in the rankings), so that's not reflected in the current schedule. A win over MSU is likely going to be looked at by the humans as about the same as a win over Oklahoma State (which is Baylor's best game left), so Baylor is going to have to hope for a monster computer advantage if it comes down to them and OSU (and even if Baylor has the edge this particular week on that metric, that's going to dissipate once OSU adds on the extra conference championship game that Baylor won't be playing).

it's absolutely fatal. If the margin continues to be that small, if Baylor is just ahead of Ohio St in all the computers, Baylor jumps them. Both Baylor and Ohio State have the same number of games left(including the championship game for OSU). We'll see tonight with the computers, but Baylor's remaining schedule is 26-12 right now. Ohio St is 21-15 to include Mich St in the title game. And, that's if they play MSU. Nebraska will have something to say about that next week- game is at Nebraska.

Remember, if Baylor is down just by 53 Harris votes and 31 coaches votes- if all computers or all but 1 computer have Baylor ahead of Ohio St- Baylor gets the nod.

You have to remember as well- going into this week- here's the margins:
AP- 94 now down to 7
Coaches- 82 now down to 25
Harris- 150

Maybe, but that movement was still after the very best possible chance for Baylor to jump OSU - demolishing a top 10 marquee program without the Buckeyes even playing that week. There's not going to be that type of dichotomy on any given weekend going forward. As we've seen, there's simply a lot of intertia in these polls. I would have jumped FSU over Oregon the week that they destroyed Clemson, yet the pollsters just don't like switching those positions at this stage of the year without a loss.

What I just don't like is declarative statements that something *will* happen or not. Baylor could jump OSU, or OSU could maintain their position. I find either way to be about equal in terms of chances. Nothing is that obvious (and if it were, that obviousness would be better served making wagers in Vegas to make money off of it).

You're assuming all other things equal. People discount Baylor for 3 reasons:
1) They didn't think they would be good preseason;
2) They played a very weak schedule prior to OU; and
3) They are Baylor.

All 3 of those are changing with the last half of their schedule. This isn't like two schools that have been 3rd and 4th all season. This is someone "new" they have discovered and opinions will evolve. Wilner in the AP Poll didn't even have Baylor in the top 25 last week. People are being forced to take notice and so polls will be fluid.

Now I agree this argument will probably be irrelevant. The odds are 2 or 3 of the top 4 will lose over the next few weeks.
11-10-2013 02:55 PM
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Wedge Offline
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RE: BCS week 4 analysis
A game to watch, if both OSU and Baylor win out and either Bama or FSU loses: Clemson-South Carolina.

Clemson is ahead of Baylor in 3 of the 6 computer rankings, and all three of those computers are being counted in Baylor's average right now (highest and lowest rank on the six computers are not counted in a team's average). So a Clemson loss, all by itself, would give Baylor a 0.75 bump in computer average.
11-10-2013 02:57 PM
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RE: BCS week 4 analysis
Harris votes are in. Ohio St up by 69 votes. That combined with the 25 vote margin would take it extremely close. I think Ohio St would get it- but it would be the slimmest of margins.

Right now, it's projected as 3/3 in the computers. 2 of them are Colley and AH- we'll see at 9pm tonight when the cpu's are released how close that they are. Wouldn't be shocked with both teams remaining schedules if Baylor is able to pass them at all- if anything, I'd consider it likely.
11-10-2013 04:49 PM
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RE: BCS week 4 analysis
Is it possible, that Vanderbilt's eleventh-hour decision to back out of the game
in Columbus is the reason the Buckeyes lose significant rank in SoS?
11-10-2013 04:58 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: BCS week 4 analysis
(11-10-2013 04:49 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Harris votes are in. Ohio St up by 69 votes. That combined with the 25 vote margin would take it extremely close. I think Ohio St would get it- but it would be the slimmest of margins.

Right now, it's projected as 3/3 in the computers. 2 of them are Colley and AH- we'll see at 9pm tonight when the cpu's are released how close that they are. Wouldn't be shocked with both teams remaining schedules if Baylor is able to pass them at all- if anything, I'd consider it likely.

Palm is projecting that Stanford will be #4 tonight, ahead of Baylor. Baylor actually trails OSU in the computers not just polls.
11-10-2013 05:02 PM
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stever20 Online
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RE: BCS week 4 analysis
This week. Baylor will pass Ohio St next week easily in the computers. Also- it's possible if 1 more computer flips this week that they would be tied in the computers. Illinois is pretty bad for Ohio St, while Baylor plays Texas Tech(still solid in the computers).

It's going to be close between 3-5. A computer or two goes different and any of the 3 could get up to #3. The battle isn't over this weekend at all.
11-10-2013 05:19 PM
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Post: #20
RE: BCS week 4 analysis
(11-10-2013 01:51 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-10-2013 01:20 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  If Baylor keeps winning they will jump Ohio State. This is the fatal flaw in the B1G expansion plans. When you bring on mediocre football programs it hurts your SOS. BIG already has this problem and that's before Maryland and Rutgers show up.

The B1G expansion plans probably have more to do with money than whether more or fewer B1G teams earn high rankings in the BCS standings.

You're right, their main goal was more money, and they got that, but he's right that athletically the B1G was harmed. The ACC has caught some flak for its expansion, football wise, but compare current ratings... (Note, I'm not including Louisville for the sake of the comparison, they were invited to fill a hole, not add to the conference outright)

Massey football ratings (Nov. 9).

51. Pitt
59. Syracuse

69. Rutgers
73. Maryland

Massey basketball ratings (Preseason).

8. Syracuse
23. Pitt

49. Maryland
105. Rutgers
(This post was last modified: 11-10-2013 05:49 PM by OrangeCrush22.)
11-10-2013 05:41 PM
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