Sagarin ELO's

MAC
Northern Illinois #6
Ball State #36
Buffalo #37
Toledo #45
Ohio #53
Bowling Green #88

MWC
Fresno State #12
Boise State #41
Utah State #71
San Diego State #74
San Jose State #83

Notes:

-Northern Illinois is getting a screw job in the polls. I had thought they would start to rise up the rankings once a few weeks of the BCS standings have gone by but its Fresno who is continuing to gain distance.

-Buffalo if they win out could very well finish in the Top 25 of the ELO's. That would give NIU potentially another big win in the MACC but with the way they are getting hosed in the polls it doesn't matter.

-Does Ohio have a shot at BG this week up at Doyt Perry? The ELO's say yes but anyone who's followed the two teams this year would say no.

The ELO's (and where Buffalo ends up) aren't going to matter for NIU because it's quite far and away their highest computer ranking and thus gets thrown out.

(11-10-2013 03:07 PM)wmubroncopilot Wrote:  The ELO's (and where Buffalo ends up) aren't going to matter for NIU because it's quite far and away their highest computer ranking and thus gets thrown out.

Generally as the season progresses the strength of the conference plays out into the final computer rankings. This is even true with rankings that have very different methodologies.

But they jumped from 18th to 15th in the BCS standings. If they beat Ball State, it will likely be enough to jump past Fresno.

(11-10-2013 08:57 PM)uakronkid Wrote:  But they jumped from 18th to 15th in the BCS standings. If they beat Ball State, it will likely be enough to jump past Fresno.

I don't see that happening(jumping FSU with a win over BSU). THe ONLY chance NIU has to pass Fresno is to win out in blow out fashion-and even then, I am not sure we would pass them.

(11-10-2013 10:08 PM)RobertN Wrote:  

(11-10-2013 08:57 PM)uakronkid Wrote:  But they jumped from 18th to 15th in the BCS standings. If they beat Ball State, it will likely be enough to jump past Fresno.

I don't see that happening(jumping FSU with a win over BSU). THe ONLY chance NIU has to pass Fresno is to win out in blow out fashion-and even then, I am not sure we would pass them.

They only use computer polls that ignore margin of victory, so if both NIU and Fresno win out, NIU will gain in the computer polls because they are playing the meat of their conference schedule.

Plus NIU is hitting the meat of its conference schedule right when MACtion hits ESPN weeknights, which is likely to do it at least some good in the Coaches and Harris polls ... so long as it wins out, of course.

(11-10-2013 08:57 PM)uakronkid Wrote:  But they jumped from 18th to 15th in the BCS standings. If they beat Ball State, it will likely be enough to jump past Fresno.

At this point, it seems the voters have made up their mind. I don't think beating good BSU, Toledo, and Buffalo teams is going to matter. Our resume's are currently rather similar, despite us playing more road games and having a larger average win margin against our opponents yet they have such a huge gap on us.

We are left with rooting for Fresno to lose to someone.

(11-10-2013 10:14 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(11-10-2013 10:08 PM)RobertN Wrote:  

(11-10-2013 08:57 PM)uakronkid Wrote:  But they jumped from 18th to 15th in the BCS standings. If they beat Ball State, it will likely be enough to jump past Fresno.

I don't see that happening(jumping FSU with a win over BSU). THe ONLY chance NIU has to pass Fresno is to win out in blow out fashion-and even then, I am not sure we would pass them.

They only use computer polls that ignore margin of victory, so if both NIU and Fresno win out, NIU will gain in the computer polls because they are playing the meat of their conference schedule.

Plus NIU is hitting the meat of its conference schedule right when MACtion hits ESPN weeknights, which is likely to do it at least some good in the Coaches and Harris polls ... so long as it wins out, of course.

That is true BUT you need the blowout fashion to hopefully prove to the voters in the HUMAN polls to vote NIU.

(11-10-2013 10:19 PM)RobertN Wrote:  

(11-10-2013 10:14 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(11-10-2013 10:08 PM)RobertN Wrote:  

(11-10-2013 08:57 PM)uakronkid Wrote:  But they jumped from 18th to 15th in the BCS standings. If they beat Ball State, it will likely be enough to jump past Fresno.

I don't see that happening(jumping FSU with a win over BSU). THe ONLY chance NIU has to pass Fresno is to win out in blow out fashion-and even then, I am not sure we would pass them.

They only use computer polls that ignore margin of victory, so if both NIU and Fresno win out, NIU will gain in the computer polls because they are playing the meat of their conference schedule.

Plus NIU is hitting the meat of its conference schedule right when MACtion hits ESPN weeknights, which is likely to do it at least some good in the Coaches and Harris polls ... so long as it wins out, of course.

That is true BUT you need the blowout fashion to hopefully prove to the voters in the HUMAN polls to vote NIU.

The fashion has been blow out for NIU over the last couple of weeks for NIU but it didn't change voter behavior postitively.

Fresno is susceptible to losing a MWCC though so I wouldn't give up complete hope.

(11-10-2013 10:15 PM)epasnoopy Wrote:  

(11-10-2013 08:57 PM)uakronkid Wrote:  But they jumped from 18th to 15th in the BCS standings. If they beat Ball State, it will likely be enough to jump past Fresno.

At this point, it seems the voters have made up their mind. I don't think beating good BSU, Toledo, and Buffalo teams is going to matter. Our resume's are currently rather similar, despite us playing more road games and having a larger average win margin against our opponents yet they have such a huge gap on us.

We are left with rooting for Fresno to lose to someone.

Your next three games are all on ESPN2, with absolutely no competition for viewers. Win, and the polls will favor NIU over Fresno. The computer gap will widen, and you're already within the top-16 threshold with four games to play.

NIU fans need to relax about being "disrespected". You're in a perfect position to surpass Fresno, even if both teams win out.

(11-10-2013 10:59 PM)uakronkid Wrote:  

(11-10-2013 10:15 PM)epasnoopy Wrote:  

(11-10-2013 08:57 PM)uakronkid Wrote:  But they jumped from 18th to 15th in the BCS standings. If they beat Ball State, it will likely be enough to jump past Fresno.

At this point, it seems the voters have made up their mind. I don't think beating good BSU, Toledo, and Buffalo teams is going to matter. Our resume's are currently rather similar, despite us playing more road games and having a larger average win margin against our opponents yet they have such a huge gap on us.

We are left with rooting for Fresno to lose to someone.

Your next three games are all on ESPN2, with absolutely no competition for viewers. Win, and the polls will favor NIU over Fresno. The computer gap will widen, and you're already within the top-16 threshold with four games to play.

NIU fans need to relax about being "disrespected". You're in a perfect position to surpass Fresno, even if both teams win out.

This. It is all in NIU's hands. The schedule will give NIU a computer jump past Fresno. I was worried that UCF's win over Houston might jump them ahead of NIU, but since that did not happen I don't think it will. UCF has 4 games left, but no opponents who are going to give them a nice boost, nobody as good as Ball State or Toledo or Buffalo/BG. NIU also has a great TV advantage over the other two teams as all their games will be at times where they will be the prime tv or only tv game and all 4 of their games will be in prime time, so the opportunity for impressing voters is there.

(11-10-2013 10:19 PM)RobertN Wrote:  That is true BUT you need the blowout fashion to hopefully prove to the voters in the HUMAN polls to vote NIU.

Sure, if the only thing they are seeing is the score. If they are watching the games, it's different.

After all, that is a big part of the poll advantage of the Power5 schools ... more of the people voting in the polls are actually watching those games, which gives a substantially different perspective than just seeing the score and possibly catching a short game summary.

I don't think we can overlook the possibility that some voters will look at Fresno State and Northern Illinois and remember that Northern had its chance last year in a BCS bowl and got blown out. they might want to see how Fresno State would do in that kind of bowl.

(11-10-2013 10:59 PM)uakronkid Wrote:  

(11-10-2013 10:15 PM)epasnoopy Wrote:  

(11-10-2013 08:57 PM)uakronkid Wrote:  But they jumped from 18th to 15th in the BCS standings. If they beat Ball State, it will likely be enough to jump past Fresno.

At this point, it seems the voters have made up their mind. I don't think beating good BSU, Toledo, and Buffalo teams is going to matter. Our resume's are currently rather similar, despite us playing more road games and having a larger average win margin against our opponents yet they have such a huge gap on us.

We are left with rooting for Fresno to lose to someone.

Your next three games are all on ESPN2, with absolutely no competition for viewers. Win, and the polls will favor NIU over Fresno. The computer gap will widen, and you're already within the top-16 threshold with four games to play.

NIU fans need to relax about being "disrespected". You're in a perfect position to surpass Fresno, even if both teams win out.

We are playing on Wednesday. There will be plenty more games on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday after we play. Will voters even remember our game come the updated polls on Sunday?