(11-08-2013 01:10 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 12:57 PM)samandrea Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 12:11 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 12:06 PM)samandrea Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 12:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  You can just ignore Baylor all you want. They aren't going away. Ohio St isn't a lock if Alabama loses. Not by any stretch of the imagination. Baylor's schedule the rest of the way is stronger than Ohio St- even giving Ohio St a 11-1 Michigan St team in the title game. If Alabama loses, the debate is just going to get stronger. The problem for Ohio St- while they are playing weaklings Illinois and Indiana, Baylor gets Texas Tech and Oklahoma St- 2 ranked teams.

Ohio State also gets Mich, which is not far behind tech and Ok st in the computer polls and likely Mich ST. There is not a huge difference in those schedules. Baylor's is tougher, but not by much. Mich St is 11 right now in one computer poll and could rise into top ten by CCG time. Baylor has as good an argument as Ohio State, but I still fall back on the premise that they had too far to climb and they must win the human polls if they both go undefeated.

Michigan and Michigan St fine. They match up well with Oklahoma St and Texas. TCU and Illinois are a wash. The Ohio St problem is the other opponent. Texas Tech blows away Indiana.

For the love of God, they DON'T have to win the human polls. Baylor WILL be ahead of Ohio St in the computers. Ohio St doesn't only have to win the human polls, but they have to win by a fairly decent sized margin. That's going to be the problem.

We will have to see it play out. I am just saying, the computers are just one third. The human polls are two thirds. Baylor has to win the computers by a large amount if they are behind in the human polls to jump them period.

False. I think what you are thinking is that if Ohio St is up by even 1 vote in the human polls, that is a big deal. It's not. It's the percentage of votes. It's goign to be a close vote, so that won't matter. Now, in the computers, if Baylor is .825 and Ohio St is .824- that is a big deal. Baylor would get credit for say 3rd and Ohio St 4th.

We will see. All I know is that if voters watched Baylor and Ohio State and voted based on who is better, they would not be that close, OSU would smash them.

I totally understand computers are 1/3 of the process. But they are still a factor. I mean, Oregon was ahead of FSU by 51 harris and 39 coaches votes- pretty big margins. But, FSU was ahead of them comfortably this week in the BCS.

(11-08-2013 01:36 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I have doubts about Ohio St being #3 in the computers. I mean, even last week they were 4 3 2 8 5 7. They will be dropping quite a bit in the 1st 3 computers.

this weeks top 6 computers
1 FSU 1.00
2 Alabama 2.25
3 Oregon 2.75
4 Ohio St 4.75
5 Stanford 6.25
6 Auburn 7.25
Baylor was 9.5

I don't think it's a guarantee at all that Ohio St will be ahead of Stanford in the computers at all this week. Not with them not playing and the team immediately behind them beating the #3 computer team.

You do understand, in what you say is the Buckeye's worst case scenario end of the year- 2 spots gap between the 2- Ohio St would need to be 105 harris AND 62 coaches votes ahead of Baylor. There is ZERO chance of Ohio St being up that much. Even right now, they are only up by 150 harris and 70 coaches votes. That margin will narrow considerably as we go along.

That's a lot of things that would have to go right for Baylor:
1) They have to win out;
2) Bama and/or FSU have to lose;
3) Stanford has to win out and finish exactly between Baylor and OSU on the computers (IMO, it's more likely that if all win out, Stanford finishes ahead of both OSU and Baylor on the computers); and then
4) Poll voters have to decide in large numbers to push an Ohio State team on a 25-game winning streak out of the BCS title game.

(11-08-2013 01:42 PM)samandrea Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 01:10 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 12:57 PM)samandrea Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 12:11 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 12:06 PM)samandrea Wrote:  Ohio State also gets Mich, which is not far behind tech and Ok st in the computer polls and likely Mich ST. There is not a huge difference in those schedules. Baylor's is tougher, but not by much. Mich St is 11 right now in one computer poll and could rise into top ten by CCG time. Baylor has as good an argument as Ohio State, but I still fall back on the premise that they had too far to climb and they must win the human polls if they both go undefeated.

Michigan and Michigan St fine. They match up well with Oklahoma St and Texas. TCU and Illinois are a wash. The Ohio St problem is the other opponent. Texas Tech blows away Indiana.

For the love of God, they DON'T have to win the human polls. Baylor WILL be ahead of Ohio St in the computers. Ohio St doesn't only have to win the human polls, but they have to win by a fairly decent sized margin. That's going to be the problem.

We will have to see it play out. I am just saying, the computers are just one third. The human polls are two thirds. Baylor has to win the computers by a large amount if they are behind in the human polls to jump them period.

False. I think what you are thinking is that if Ohio St is up by even 1 vote in the human polls, that is a big deal. It's not. It's the percentage of votes. It's goign to be a close vote, so that won't matter. Now, in the computers, if Baylor is .825 and Ohio St is .824- that is a big deal. Baylor would get credit for say 3rd and Ohio St 4th.

We will see. All I know is that if voters watched Baylor and Ohio State and voted based on who is better, they would not be that close, OSU would smash them.

I think a lot of folks would totally disagree with you. Ohio St has not played anyone. Pretty easy to look good against teams like Purdue.

(11-08-2013 01:46 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 01:36 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I have doubts about Ohio St being #3 in the computers. I mean, even last week they were 4 3 2 8 5 7. They will be dropping quite a bit in the 1st 3 computers.

this weeks top 6 computers
1 FSU 1.00
2 Alabama 2.25
3 Oregon 2.75
4 Ohio St 4.75
5 Stanford 6.25
6 Auburn 7.25
Baylor was 9.5

I don't think it's a guarantee at all that Ohio St will be ahead of Stanford in the computers at all this week. Not with them not playing and the team immediately behind them beating the #3 computer team.

You do understand, in what you say is the Buckeye's worst case scenario end of the year- 2 spots gap between the 2- Ohio St would need to be 105 harris AND 62 coaches votes ahead of Baylor. There is ZERO chance of Ohio St being up that much. Even right now, they are only up by 150 harris and 70 coaches votes. That margin will narrow considerably as we go along.

That's a lot of things that would have to go right for Baylor:
1) They have to win out;
2) Bama and/or FSU have to lose;
3) Stanford has to win out and finish exactly between Baylor and OSU on the computers (IMO, it's more likely that if all win out, Stanford finishes ahead of both OSU and Baylor on the computers); and then
4) Poll voters have to decide in large numbers to push an Ohio State team on a 25-game winning streak out of the BCS title game.

1/2 obviously. Though with 2- if both lose- it's Baylor/Ohio St in the title game.
3- I think it's more possible than you think. I think for one- there are teams like Clemson that could be ahead of Ohio St but not Baylor. Alabama comes to mind. Also, and we'll have to see- it's possible Baylor could get ahead of FSU in the computers.
4- We'll see how large the computer margin is. Ohio St may need a massive poll lead to get in, and then moreso, poll voters would have to decide in large numbers to push Baylor out of the title game.

(11-08-2013 01:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 01:42 PM)samandrea Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 01:10 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 12:57 PM)samandrea Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 12:11 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Michigan and Michigan St fine. They match up well with Oklahoma St and Texas. TCU and Illinois are a wash. The Ohio St problem is the other opponent. Texas Tech blows away Indiana.

For the love of God, they DON'T have to win the human polls. Baylor WILL be ahead of Ohio St in the computers. Ohio St doesn't only have to win the human polls, but they have to win by a fairly decent sized margin. That's going to be the problem.

We will have to see it play out. I am just saying, the computers are just one third. The human polls are two thirds. Baylor has to win the computers by a large amount if they are behind in the human polls to jump them period.

False. I think what you are thinking is that if Ohio St is up by even 1 vote in the human polls, that is a big deal. It's not. It's the percentage of votes. It's goign to be a close vote, so that won't matter. Now, in the computers, if Baylor is .825 and Ohio St is .824- that is a big deal. Baylor would get credit for say 3rd and Ohio St 4th.

We will see. All I know is that if voters watched Baylor and Ohio State and voted based on who is better, they would not be that close, OSU would smash them.

I think a lot of folks would totally disagree with you. Ohio St has not played anyone. Pretty easy to look good against teams like Purdue.

The exact thing can be said about Baylor. Oklahoma has no QB. Only OSU has better personnel, better offensive line by far. THey have a QB who is tons better than Oklahoma's. I just don't see the props they get for beating OU when Texas smashed them as well.

(11-08-2013 01:44 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I totally understand computers are 1/3 of the process. But they are still a factor. I mean, Oregon was ahead of FSU by 51 harris and 39 coaches votes- pretty big margins. But, FSU was ahead of them comfortably this week in the BCS.

True, but there is a big difference between the computers mid-way through the year and at the end. They are really only designed to determine things with a full year of stats in there and are just being put out now for our enjoyment.

I'm definitely not arguing it can't happen though. I do see scenarios where Baylor would get in over OSU. If both are unbeaten and #2 and #3 in the human polls at the end of the year though, they are going to be pretty close to that in the computers too. If the vote is relatively close between the two, then the computers can decide (even if one is #2 overall in both). If one is overwhelming favorite though, I'd be very surprised if they didn't get in.

In my personal power ratings which are adjusted for how well teams do against expectations (the Vegas line), Baylor is #1 in the nation. Florida St is #2.

(11-08-2013 01:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 01:42 PM)samandrea Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 01:10 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 12:57 PM)samandrea Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 12:11 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Michigan and Michigan St fine. They match up well with Oklahoma St and Texas. TCU and Illinois are a wash. The Ohio St problem is the other opponent. Texas Tech blows away Indiana.

For the love of God, they DON'T have to win the human polls. Baylor WILL be ahead of Ohio St in the computers. Ohio St doesn't only have to win the human polls, but they have to win by a fairly decent sized margin. That's going to be the problem.

We will have to see it play out. I am just saying, the computers are just one third. The human polls are two thirds. Baylor has to win the computers by a large amount if they are behind in the human polls to jump them period.

False. I think what you are thinking is that if Ohio St is up by even 1 vote in the human polls, that is a big deal. It's not. It's the percentage of votes. It's goign to be a close vote, so that won't matter. Now, in the computers, if Baylor is .825 and Ohio St is .824- that is a big deal. Baylor would get credit for say 3rd and Ohio St 4th.

We will see. All I know is that if voters watched Baylor and Ohio State and voted based on who is better, they would not be that close, OSU would smash them.

I think a lot of folks would totally disagree with you. Ohio St has not played anyone. Pretty easy to look good against teams like Purdue.

And they struggled against Buffalo, finally pulling away 40-20. Baylor beat the same team the next week 70-13.

(11-08-2013 01:39 PM)ohio1317 Wrote:  Computers are important in the process, but they've been reduced to 1/3 the process. Regardless, I doubt both Baylor and Ohio State go unbeaten.

Yes. And since that change was made in 2004, the two teams in the BCS title game have been the two teams ranked #1 and #2 in the human polls.

In the end, the human polls will almost surely decide who ends up in the title game, regardless of the computers. The computers will be important only if the two human polls disagree about who is #2.

(11-08-2013 01:46 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 01:36 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I have doubts about Ohio St being #3 in the computers. I mean, even last week they were 4 3 2 8 5 7. They will be dropping quite a bit in the 1st 3 computers.

this weeks top 6 computers
1 FSU 1.00
2 Alabama 2.25
3 Oregon 2.75
4 Ohio St 4.75
5 Stanford 6.25
6 Auburn 7.25
Baylor was 9.5

I don't think it's a guarantee at all that Ohio St will be ahead of Stanford in the computers at all this week. Not with them not playing and the team immediately behind them beating the #3 computer team.

You do understand, in what you say is the Buckeye's worst case scenario end of the year- 2 spots gap between the 2- Ohio St would need to be 105 harris AND 62 coaches votes ahead of Baylor. There is ZERO chance of Ohio St being up that much. Even right now, they are only up by 150 harris and 70 coaches votes. That margin will narrow considerably as we go along.

That's a lot of things that would have to go right for Baylor:
1) They have to win out;
2) Bama and/or FSU have to lose;
3) Stanford has to win out and finish exactly between Baylor and OSU on the computers (IMO, it's more likely that if all win out, Stanford finishes ahead of both OSU and Baylor on the computers); and then
4) Poll voters have to decide in large numbers to push an Ohio State team on a 25-game winning streak out of the BCS title game.

Baylor's odds of getting voted ahead of the following teams, if both are unbeaten at the end of the season:

Alabama ... 0%

FSU ........ 5%

Ohio State ... 50%

Don't forget, Baylor will have played a FAR tougher schedule than Ohio State and there will be strong sentiment to vote them past the Buckeyes. Ohio State's best chance to get into the title game is for other unbeatens to lose.

(11-08-2013 02:54 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 01:46 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 01:42 PM)samandrea Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 01:10 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 12:57 PM)samandrea Wrote:  We will have to see it play out. I am just saying, the computers are just one third. The human polls are two thirds. Baylor has to win the computers by a large amount if they are behind in the human polls to jump them period.

False. I think what you are thinking is that if Ohio St is up by even 1 vote in the human polls, that is a big deal. It's not. It's the percentage of votes. It's goign to be a close vote, so that won't matter. Now, in the computers, if Baylor is .825 and Ohio St is .824- that is a big deal. Baylor would get credit for say 3rd and Ohio St 4th.

We will see. All I know is that if voters watched Baylor and Ohio State and voted based on who is better, they would not be that close, OSU would smash them.

I think a lot of folks would totally disagree with you. Ohio St has not played anyone. Pretty easy to look good against teams like Purdue.

And they struggled against Buffalo, finally pulling away 40-20. Baylor beat the same team the next week 70-13.

They simply have better players than Baylor. Their offense has always been explosive, the defense was young and gave up a lot of points. They had a top running back and top corner out the first few games. There D is vastly improved and way better than OU.

we've not had that many tough scenario's since 2004 frankly.

And look at 2011. OSU was 0.5 spots ahead of Alabama in the computers. If they had gotten up to a 1 spot lead(flipping 1 computer)- they would have needed only like 7-8 voters to flip their vote to have made the title game. Alabama was up by 69 Harris votes and 32 coaches votes. If they had gotten like 5 coaches voters and 3 harris voters- the result would have been flipped.

my point is that I think the human polls will disagree quite a bit about who is #2. I'd much rather have the advantage the computers will potentially give Baylor.

(11-08-2013 03:31 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  there will be strong sentiment to vote them past the Buckeyes.

Strong sentiment? Don't think so. I looked at the coaches' voters. I don't see any strong pro-Baylor or anti-Ohio State bias in the group as a whole. (Obviously Art Briles and Urban Meyer, who both have votes, have their own biases. Ha.)

As for how the coaches are voting now? USA Today's poll shows the highest and lowest ranking received by each team. It shows Ohio State looking solid in the minds of the coaches (or whomever fills out the coach's ballot for them). Ohio State has at least one voter ranking them #2 (hey there, Urban) and no one ranking them lower than #4. Baylor has no one ranking them higher than #5 in this week's poll, and their lowest is listed as "NR", meaning that at least one of the coaches didn't have Baylor in their top 25 last week. Wow.

(That's not the only inexplicable outlier, BTW -- at least one coach has Florida State ranked #12.)

Stanford's schedule has been tougher overall when you look at all the ranked opponents they have defeated.... On the other hand, they did lose to Utah. They probably are ranked Stanford @ #3, Baylor #4.

(11-08-2013 04:12 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 03:31 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  there will be strong sentiment to vote them past the Buckeyes.

Strong sentiment? Don't think so. I looked at the coaches' voters. I don't see any strong pro-Baylor or anti-Ohio State bias in the group as a whole. (Obviously Art Briles and Urban Meyer, who both have votes, have their own biases. Ha.)

As for how the coaches are voting now? USA Today's poll shows the highest and lowest ranking received by each team. It shows Ohio State looking solid in the minds of the coaches (or whomever fills out the coach's ballot for them). Ohio State has at least one voter ranking them #2 (hey there, Urban) and no one ranking them lower than #4. Baylor has no one ranking them higher than #5 in this week's poll, and their lowest is listed as "NR", meaning that at least one of the coaches didn't have Baylor in their top 25 last week. Wow.

(That's not the only inexplicable outlier, BTW -- at least one coach has Florida State ranked #12.)

I thought that as wel. It's not that- it's their highest ranking and lowest ranking of the season.

1. Alabama
2. FSU
3. OSU
4. Stanford
5. Baylor
6. Oregon

(11-08-2013 10:57 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 10:47 AM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 09:30 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 09:28 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 09:25 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  I doubt it.

Stanford was impressive.

Stanfords lead last week was all computers. Baylor is ahead of them already in the polls. Baylor will be making a huge leap in the computers, so I think looking at it closer, we'll see them pass this week.

They get a boost though in the computers by beating Oregon though. It may happen but I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't.

Stanford would have gotten a huge boost had they shut out Oregon. But Stanford's 6 point win doesn't carry the same kind of weight that Baylor's 29 point win does. Both were games between 2 top 10 teams. But Baylor was dominant throughout the game, and the Bears' defense held the Sooners offense to 237 total yards. Marcos Mariota had more passing yards against Stanford than Oklahoma's entire offense had against Baylor. I'd say that Baylor's was the more impressive win.

To reiterate: Baylor completely dominated Oklahoma through the entire game. Stanford dominated through 3 quarters. But they let Oregon off the mat in the 4th, and almost allowed the Ducks to come back and win. Baylor's win was the more impressive of the 2 last night.

You're kidding, right? Midway through the second quarter, Oklahoma was winning the game. Baylor didn't take full control until the last two minutes of the first half. On the other hand, Stanford never trailed Oregon, and they dominated about as great a percentage of their game as did Baylor, it's just that Baylor's dominance range included the end of the game.

Overall, Stanford's win was the more impressive one because the opponent they beat was regarded much more highly than the opponent Baylor beat.

I take it you didn't watch the same game I did. Midway through the 2nd quarter Oklahoma had more points. But they weren't winning the game. They had one offensive first down total at that time. The rest came by penalty. And the only reason they got the safety is because the Sooners were unable to score a TD after 4 plays inside the 5 yard line, advanced to via penalties, one of which was questionable at best.

Stanford's win would have been more impressive had they continued to dominate Oregon through all 4 quarters. But they allowed Oregon to score 21 points in almost no time at all in the 4th.

Oklahoma was winning nothing, and they ended up losing by 29 points. Oregon lost to Stanford by 6. So I don't see your point at all.

(11-08-2013 04:12 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 03:31 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  there will be strong sentiment to vote them past the Buckeyes.

Strong sentiment? Don't think so. I looked at the coaches' voters. I don't see any strong pro-Baylor or anti-Ohio State bias in the group as a whole. (Obviously Art Briles and Urban Meyer, who both have votes, have their own biases. Ha.)

As for how the coaches are voting now? USA Today's poll shows the highest and lowest ranking received by each team. It shows Ohio State looking solid in the minds of the coaches (or whomever fills out the coach's ballot for them). Ohio State has at least one voter ranking them #2 (hey there, Urban) and no one ranking them lower than #4. Baylor has no one ranking them higher than #5 in this week's poll, and their lowest is listed as "NR", meaning that at least one of the coaches didn't have Baylor in their top 25 last week. Wow.

(That's not the only inexplicable outlier, BTW -- at least one coach has Florida State ranked #12.)

That's why Baylor will pass Ohio St. They hadn't really played anyone. Now people who ignored them will be forced to take them seriously. If they keep winning they keep gaining.

(11-08-2013 05:10 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 10:57 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 10:47 AM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 09:30 AM)HeartOfDixie Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 09:28 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Stanfords lead last week was all computers. Baylor is ahead of them already in the polls. Baylor will be making a huge leap in the computers, so I think looking at it closer, we'll see them pass this week.

They get a boost though in the computers by beating Oregon though. It may happen but I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't.

Stanford would have gotten a huge boost had they shut out Oregon. But Stanford's 6 point win doesn't carry the same kind of weight that Baylor's 29 point win does. Both were games between 2 top 10 teams. But Baylor was dominant throughout the game, and the Bears' defense held the Sooners offense to 237 total yards. Marcos Mariota had more passing yards against Stanford than Oklahoma's entire offense had against Baylor. I'd say that Baylor's was the more impressive win.

To reiterate: Baylor completely dominated Oklahoma through the entire game. Stanford dominated through 3 quarters. But they let Oregon off the mat in the 4th, and almost allowed the Ducks to come back and win. Baylor's win was the more impressive of the 2 last night.

You're kidding, right? Midway through the second quarter, Oklahoma was winning the game. Baylor didn't take full control until the last two minutes of the first half. On the other hand, Stanford never trailed Oregon, and they dominated about as great a percentage of their game as did Baylor, it's just that Baylor's dominance range included the end of the game.

Overall, Stanford's win was the more impressive one because the opponent they beat was regarded much more highly than the opponent Baylor beat.

I take it you didn't watch the same game I did. Midway through the 2nd quarter Oklahoma had more points. But they weren't winning the game. They had one offensive first down total at that time. The rest came by penalty.

Until late in the second quarter, the main storyline from that game was that OK had handcuffed Baylor's point-a-minute offense. 23 minutes in, and Baylor had all of 2 points. It was a very competitive game for the first 40% of the game. That's what I saw on my TV.