(11-08-2013 11:16 AM)samandrea Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 11:10 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 10:53 AM)uccheese Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 05:40 AM)The Turk Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 02:54 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I think Baylor will pass Ohio St. I think Ohio St may wind up having a huge computer problem, where they are maybe 2-3 spots behind Baylor in the computers-with potentially even schools like Clemson getting wedged in between. That would make it where Ohio St would need to be way ahead of Baylor in the polls- and I just do not see that given the perception of the Big Ten and just how good Baylor has looked...

you're one of the numbers/stats guys here who actually takes the time to look things up. What's the historical record for teams from p-5 conferences with stronger schedules but with one more loss passing other p-5 members in the computers? Or with better memories than me... I guess if does happen often, a school like Clemson might be able to do it with two strong OOC opponents on the schedule with one loss over a no loss team like Ohio State with a %$%^ OOC.

It happens, but not to undefeateds. An undefeated P5 teams has never missed the NCG by finishing below a non-undefeated P5 team. Lower in the standings, it happens.

If you ignore the undefeated part, it has happened at the top as well. Kansas went 13-1 in 2007 when LSU won the national title at 12-2.

That's not the point of the question. What he was asking was how often a Clemson for instance historically would be ahead of a Ohio St in the computers. This is not to help Clemson or Stanford- but rather Baylor. My point is that it's very possible that Baylor could be more than 1 computer spot ahead of Ohio St in some computers- something that would almost guarantee Baylor being ahead of Ohio St in the BCS.

I still contend it will take more than that. They will have to be ahead or virtually tied in the human polls for them to overtake OSU in the BCS. They could eventually overtake OSU, but I see the chances of that as slim.

If they are ahead of Ohio St in the computers......
Ohio St would need to be 53 votes ahead in harris AND 32 votes ahead in coaches. That's not a virtual tie.

For each extra individual computer spot that Baylor is ahead-
Ohio St would need to be like 12 more harris votes AND 8 more coaches votes ahead.

So say Baylor is ahead in all 6 computers and 2 of them Clemson gets wedged between them(you have to say 2, because the hi/low gets removed).. Ohio St would need to be up by 65 harris votes and 40 coaches votes. That's a pretty big margin quite frankly...

The average Baylor opponent the rest of the way(4 games) is 38.25. The average Ohio St opponent(giving them Mich St) the rest of the way(also 4 games) is 50.

(11-08-2013 11:10 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 10:53 AM)uccheese Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 05:40 AM)The Turk Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 02:54 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I think Baylor will pass Ohio St. I think Ohio St may wind up having a huge computer problem, where they are maybe 2-3 spots behind Baylor in the computers-with potentially even schools like Clemson getting wedged in between. That would make it where Ohio St would need to be way ahead of Baylor in the polls- and I just do not see that given the perception of the Big Ten and just how good Baylor has looked...

you're one of the numbers/stats guys here who actually takes the time to look things up. What's the historical record for teams from p-5 conferences with stronger schedules but with one more loss passing other p-5 members in the computers? Or with better memories than me... I guess if does happen often, a school like Clemson might be able to do it with two strong OOC opponents on the schedule with one loss over a no loss team like Ohio State with a %$%^ OOC.

It happens, but not to undefeateds. An undefeated P5 teams has never missed the NCG by finishing below a non-undefeated P5 team. Lower in the standings, it happens.

If you ignore the undefeated part, it has happened at the top as well. Kansas went 13-1 in 2007 when LSU won the national title at 12-2.

That's not the point of the question. What he was asking was how often a Clemson for instance historically would be ahead of a Ohio St in the computers. This is not to help Clemson or Stanford- but rather Baylor. My point is that it's very possible that Baylor could be more than 1 computer spot ahead of Ohio St in some computers- something that would almost guarantee Baylor being ahead of Ohio St in the BCS.

You're right. Sorry, I somehow took "the computers" to mean the BCS caluculation.

(11-08-2013 11:23 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 11:16 AM)samandrea Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 11:10 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 10:53 AM)uccheese Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 05:40 AM)The Turk Wrote:  you're one of the numbers/stats guys here who actually takes the time to look things up. What's the historical record for teams from p-5 conferences with stronger schedules but with one more loss passing other p-5 members in the computers? Or with better memories than me... I guess if does happen often, a school like Clemson might be able to do it with two strong OOC opponents on the schedule with one loss over a no loss team like Ohio State with a %$%^ OOC.

It happens, but not to undefeateds. An undefeated P5 teams has never missed the NCG by finishing below a non-undefeated P5 team. Lower in the standings, it happens.

If you ignore the undefeated part, it has happened at the top as well. Kansas went 13-1 in 2007 when LSU won the national title at 12-2.

That's not the point of the question. What he was asking was how often a Clemson for instance historically would be ahead of a Ohio St in the computers. This is not to help Clemson or Stanford- but rather Baylor. My point is that it's very possible that Baylor could be more than 1 computer spot ahead of Ohio St in some computers- something that would almost guarantee Baylor being ahead of Ohio St in the BCS.

I still contend it will take more than that. They will have to be ahead or virtually tied in the human polls for them to overtake OSU in the BCS. They could eventually overtake OSU, but I see the chances of that as slim.

If they are ahead of Ohio St in the computers......
Ohio St would need to be 53 votes ahead in harris AND 32 votes ahead in coaches. That's not a virtual tie.

For each extra individual computer spot that Baylor is ahead-
Ohio St would need to be like 12 more harris votes AND 8 more coaches votes ahead.

So say Baylor is ahead in all 6 computers and 2 of them Clemson gets wedged between them(you have to say 2, because the hi/low gets removed).. Ohio St would need to be up by 65 harris votes and 40 coaches votes. That's a pretty big margin quite frankly...

The average Baylor opponent the rest of the way(4 games) is 38.25. The average Ohio St opponent(giving them Mich St) the rest of the way(also 4 games) is 50.

I checked out some of the computer rankings and OSU avg is 4 and Baylor 9. If I am correct, they drop the highest and lowest and avg the remaining four. Baylor has a ways to go to pass OSU in all the computer rankings. It will be a moot point because I think Baylor takes a loss.

The thing you don't understand...

This week in Colley- Ohio St was #2 and Baylor was #9

Right now alerady- Ohio St is down to #4, and Baylor is up to #5. Baylor will pass Ohio St next week- when their opponent has a 50 spot advantage on Ohio St's opponent.

To me, Baylor has 1 really tough chance to lose- a road game at Oklahoma St. If they win that, they should be decent favorites every other game.

(11-08-2013 11:33 AM)stever20 Wrote:  The thing you don't understand...

This week in Colley- Ohio St was #2 and Baylor was #9

Right now alerady- Ohio St is down to #4, and Baylor is up to #5. Baylor will pass Ohio St next week- when their opponent has a 50 spot advantage on Ohio St's opponent.

To me, Baylor has 1 really tough chance to lose- a road game at Oklahoma St. If they win that, they should be decent favorites every other game.

That is unofficial. I went to the site and entered in the scenerio with Standford winning as well and it puts Stanford 2 and Baylor 5 and OSU 3. It seems to me that Baylor has to worry about Stanford being in between them and OSU as the season goes along. Also remember that the best ranking and worst get tossed.

This is purely a question for message board entertainment unless two of Alabama, Florida State, and Ohio State lose.

(Maybe the voters would drop Ohio State to #4 if they have close wins against cream puffs, maybe not. And just to be safe, Ohio State needs to get an 11-1 Michigan State team in the Big Ten title game and not a team dinged with 2 or 3 losses.)

If two of those top three did lose, enough poll voters would manipulate their ballots to make sure a 12-0 Baylor team was ahead of any one-loss team in the BCS standings, even if Stanford remains ahead in the computers. An undefeated P5 team hasn't failed to make the BCS title game unless they were behind at least two other undefeated teams.

The only thing Stanford has is first place among one-loss teams, which only helps them if more undefeated teams lose.

(11-08-2013 11:49 AM)samandrea Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 11:33 AM)stever20 Wrote:  The thing you don't understand...

This week in Colley- Ohio St was #2 and Baylor was #9

Right now alerady- Ohio St is down to #4, and Baylor is up to #5. Baylor will pass Ohio St next week- when their opponent has a 50 spot advantage on Ohio St's opponent.

To me, Baylor has 1 really tough chance to lose- a road game at Oklahoma St. If they win that, they should be decent favorites every other game.

That is unofficial. I went to the site and entered in the scenerio with Standford winning as well and it puts Stanford 2 and Baylor 5 and OSU 3. It seems to me that Baylor has to worry about Stanford being in between them and OSU as the season goes along. Also remember that the best ranking and worst get tossed.

You are right. However, if Alabama beats LSU, OSU drops to 4. If LSU beats Alabama, I think OSU is 3 and Baylor is 4. Baylor will be 1 spot back..

OSU in one computer right now is 8th. So, any spots they lose are going to count.

I'd much rather be in Baylors spot than Ohio St right now. We'll know a lot more come Sunday night.

(11-08-2013 11:51 AM)Wedge Wrote:  This is purely a question for message board entertainment unless two of Alabama, Florida State, and Ohio State lose.

(Maybe the voters would drop Ohio State to #4 if they have close wins against cream puffs, maybe not. And just to be safe, Ohio State needs to get an 11-1 Michigan State team in the Big Ten title game and not a team dinged with 2 or 3 losses.)

If two of those top three did lose, enough poll voters would manipulate their ballots to make sure a 12-0 Baylor team was ahead of any one-loss team in the BCS standings, even if Stanford remains ahead in the computers. An undefeated P5 team hasn't failed to make the BCS title game unless they were behind at least two other undefeated teams.

The only thing Stanford has is first place among one-loss teams, which only helps them if more undefeated teams lose.

You can just ignore Baylor all you want. They aren't going away. Ohio St isn't a lock if Alabama loses. Not by any stretch of the imagination. Baylor's schedule the rest of the way is stronger than Ohio St- even giving Ohio St a 11-1 Michigan St team in the title game. If Alabama loses, the debate is just going to get stronger. The problem for Ohio St- while they are playing weaklings Illinois and Indiana, Baylor gets Texas Tech and Oklahoma St- 2 ranked teams.

(11-08-2013 12:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 11:51 AM)Wedge Wrote:  This is purely a question for message board entertainment unless two of Alabama, Florida State, and Ohio State lose.

(Maybe the voters would drop Ohio State to #4 if they have close wins against cream puffs, maybe not. And just to be safe, Ohio State needs to get an 11-1 Michigan State team in the Big Ten title game and not a team dinged with 2 or 3 losses.)

If two of those top three did lose, enough poll voters would manipulate their ballots to make sure a 12-0 Baylor team was ahead of any one-loss team in the BCS standings, even if Stanford remains ahead in the computers. An undefeated P5 team hasn't failed to make the BCS title game unless they were behind at least two other undefeated teams.

The only thing Stanford has is first place among one-loss teams, which only helps them if more undefeated teams lose.

You can just ignore Baylor all you want. They aren't going away. Ohio St isn't a lock if Alabama loses. Not by any stretch of the imagination. Baylor's schedule the rest of the way is stronger than Ohio St- even giving Ohio St a 11-1 Michigan St team in the title game. If Alabama loses, the debate is just going to get stronger. The problem for Ohio St- while they are playing weaklings Illinois and Indiana, Baylor gets Texas Tech and Oklahoma St- 2 ranked teams.

Ohio State also gets Mich, which is not far behind tech and Ok st in the computer polls and likely Mich ST. There is not a huge difference in those schedules. Baylor's is tougher, but not by much. Mich St is 11 right now in one computer poll and could rise into top ten by CCG time. Baylor has as good an argument as Ohio State, but I still fall back on the premise that they had too far to climb and they must win the human polls if they both go undefeated.

Baylor should be #3 in the polls next week, if Alabama and FSU remain undefeated.

(11-08-2013 11:51 AM)Wedge Wrote:  This is purely a question for message board entertainment unless two of Alabama, Florida State, and Ohio State lose.

(Maybe the voters would drop Ohio State to #4 if they have close wins against cream puffs, maybe not. And just to be safe, Ohio State needs to get an 11-1 Michigan State team in the Big Ten title game and not a team dinged with 2 or 3 losses.)

If two of those top three did lose, enough poll voters would manipulate their ballots to make sure a 12-0 Baylor team was ahead of any one-loss team in the BCS standings, even if Stanford remains ahead in the computers. An undefeated P5 team hasn't failed to make the BCS title game unless they were behind at least two other undefeated teams.

The only thing Stanford has is first place among one-loss teams, which only helps them if more undefeated teams lose.

Manipulate? The manipulation would be if a team that lost to Utah got in over a major unbeaten. Stanford is already behind Baylor in the human polls. Assuming Baylor continues to win against decent teams, that gap will increase.

(11-08-2013 12:06 PM)samandrea Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 12:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 11:51 AM)Wedge Wrote:  This is purely a question for message board entertainment unless two of Alabama, Florida State, and Ohio State lose.

(Maybe the voters would drop Ohio State to #4 if they have close wins against cream puffs, maybe not. And just to be safe, Ohio State needs to get an 11-1 Michigan State team in the Big Ten title game and not a team dinged with 2 or 3 losses.)

If two of those top three did lose, enough poll voters would manipulate their ballots to make sure a 12-0 Baylor team was ahead of any one-loss team in the BCS standings, even if Stanford remains ahead in the computers. An undefeated P5 team hasn't failed to make the BCS title game unless they were behind at least two other undefeated teams.

The only thing Stanford has is first place among one-loss teams, which only helps them if more undefeated teams lose.

You can just ignore Baylor all you want. They aren't going away. Ohio St isn't a lock if Alabama loses. Not by any stretch of the imagination. Baylor's schedule the rest of the way is stronger than Ohio St- even giving Ohio St a 11-1 Michigan St team in the title game. If Alabama loses, the debate is just going to get stronger. The problem for Ohio St- while they are playing weaklings Illinois and Indiana, Baylor gets Texas Tech and Oklahoma St- 2 ranked teams.

Ohio State also gets Mich, which is not far behind tech and Ok st in the computer polls and likely Mich ST. There is not a huge difference in those schedules. Baylor's is tougher, but not by much. Mich St is 11 right now in one computer poll and could rise into top ten by CCG time. Baylor has as good an argument as Ohio State, but I still fall back on the premise that they had too far to climb and they must win the human polls if they both go undefeated.

Michigan and Michigan St fine. They match up well with Oklahoma St and Texas. TCU and Illinois are a wash. The Ohio St problem is the other opponent. Texas Tech blows away Indiana.

For the love of God, they DON'T have to win the human polls. Baylor WILL be ahead of Ohio St in the computers. Ohio St doesn't only have to win the human polls, but they have to win by a fairly decent sized margin. That's going to be the problem.

(11-08-2013 12:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 11:51 AM)Wedge Wrote:  This is purely a question for message board entertainment unless two of Alabama, Florida State, and Ohio State lose.

(Maybe the voters would drop Ohio State to #4 if they have close wins against cream puffs, maybe not. And just to be safe, Ohio State needs to get an 11-1 Michigan State team in the Big Ten title game and not a team dinged with 2 or 3 losses.)

If two of those top three did lose, enough poll voters would manipulate their ballots to make sure a 12-0 Baylor team was ahead of any one-loss team in the BCS standings, even if Stanford remains ahead in the computers. An undefeated P5 team hasn't failed to make the BCS title game unless they were behind at least two other undefeated teams.

The only thing Stanford has is first place among one-loss teams, which only helps them if more undefeated teams lose.

You can just ignore Baylor all you want. They aren't going away. Ohio St isn't a lock if Alabama loses. Not by any stretch of the imagination. Baylor's schedule the rest of the way is stronger than Ohio St- even giving Ohio St a 11-1 Michigan St team in the title game. If Alabama loses, the debate is just going to get stronger. The problem for Ohio St- while they are playing weaklings Illinois and Indiana, Baylor gets Texas Tech and Oklahoma St- 2 ranked teams.

You're saying that you think Baylor deserves to pass Ohio State even if all the remaining undefeated teams win out.

That may be so, but what I'm saying is different: I'm saying that Baylor won't actually pass Ohio State in the BCS standings unless Ohio State loses. That's an opinion of what will happen and not necessarily what I think "deserves" to happen.

(11-08-2013 12:11 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 12:06 PM)samandrea Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 12:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 11:51 AM)Wedge Wrote:  This is purely a question for message board entertainment unless two of Alabama, Florida State, and Ohio State lose.

(Maybe the voters would drop Ohio State to #4 if they have close wins against cream puffs, maybe not. And just to be safe, Ohio State needs to get an 11-1 Michigan State team in the Big Ten title game and not a team dinged with 2 or 3 losses.)

If two of those top three did lose, enough poll voters would manipulate their ballots to make sure a 12-0 Baylor team was ahead of any one-loss team in the BCS standings, even if Stanford remains ahead in the computers. An undefeated P5 team hasn't failed to make the BCS title game unless they were behind at least two other undefeated teams.

The only thing Stanford has is first place among one-loss teams, which only helps them if more undefeated teams lose.

You can just ignore Baylor all you want. They aren't going away. Ohio St isn't a lock if Alabama loses. Not by any stretch of the imagination. Baylor's schedule the rest of the way is stronger than Ohio St- even giving Ohio St a 11-1 Michigan St team in the title game. If Alabama loses, the debate is just going to get stronger. The problem for Ohio St- while they are playing weaklings Illinois and Indiana, Baylor gets Texas Tech and Oklahoma St- 2 ranked teams.

Ohio State also gets Mich, which is not far behind tech and Ok st in the computer polls and likely Mich ST. There is not a huge difference in those schedules. Baylor's is tougher, but not by much. Mich St is 11 right now in one computer poll and could rise into top ten by CCG time. Baylor has as good an argument as Ohio State, but I still fall back on the premise that they had too far to climb and they must win the human polls if they both go undefeated.

Michigan and Michigan St fine. They match up well with Oklahoma St and Texas. TCU and Illinois are a wash. The Ohio St problem is the other opponent. Texas Tech blows away Indiana.

For the love of God, they DON'T have to win the human polls. Baylor WILL be ahead of Ohio St in the computers. Ohio St doesn't only have to win the human polls, but they have to win by a fairly decent sized margin. That's going to be the problem.

Why worry about all of this, week to week?

It is beyond the control of any individual team, so why should Baylor or Ohio State or anyone else worry about it?

Just win your games and see what happens at the end. Period.

(11-08-2013 12:11 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 12:06 PM)samandrea Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 12:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 11:51 AM)Wedge Wrote:  This is purely a question for message board entertainment unless two of Alabama, Florida State, and Ohio State lose.

(Maybe the voters would drop Ohio State to #4 if they have close wins against cream puffs, maybe not. And just to be safe, Ohio State needs to get an 11-1 Michigan State team in the Big Ten title game and not a team dinged with 2 or 3 losses.)

If two of those top three did lose, enough poll voters would manipulate their ballots to make sure a 12-0 Baylor team was ahead of any one-loss team in the BCS standings, even if Stanford remains ahead in the computers. An undefeated P5 team hasn't failed to make the BCS title game unless they were behind at least two other undefeated teams.

The only thing Stanford has is first place among one-loss teams, which only helps them if more undefeated teams lose.

You can just ignore Baylor all you want. They aren't going away. Ohio St isn't a lock if Alabama loses. Not by any stretch of the imagination. Baylor's schedule the rest of the way is stronger than Ohio St- even giving Ohio St a 11-1 Michigan St team in the title game. If Alabama loses, the debate is just going to get stronger. The problem for Ohio St- while they are playing weaklings Illinois and Indiana, Baylor gets Texas Tech and Oklahoma St- 2 ranked teams.

Ohio State also gets Mich, which is not far behind tech and Ok st in the computer polls and likely Mich ST. There is not a huge difference in those schedules. Baylor's is tougher, but not by much. Mich St is 11 right now in one computer poll and could rise into top ten by CCG time. Baylor has as good an argument as Ohio State, but I still fall back on the premise that they had too far to climb and they must win the human polls if they both go undefeated.

Michigan and Michigan St fine. They match up well with Oklahoma St and Texas. TCU and Illinois are a wash. The Ohio St problem is the other opponent. Texas Tech blows away Indiana.

For the love of God, they DON'T have to win the human polls. Baylor WILL be ahead of Ohio St in the computers. Ohio St doesn't only have to win the human polls, but they have to win by a fairly decent sized margin. That's going to be the problem.

We will have to see it play out. I am just saying, the computers are just one third. The human polls are two thirds. Baylor has to win the computers by a large amount if they are behind in the human polls to jump them period.

(11-08-2013 12:23 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 12:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 11:51 AM)Wedge Wrote:  This is purely a question for message board entertainment unless two of Alabama, Florida State, and Ohio State lose.

(Maybe the voters would drop Ohio State to #4 if they have close wins against cream puffs, maybe not. And just to be safe, Ohio State needs to get an 11-1 Michigan State team in the Big Ten title game and not a team dinged with 2 or 3 losses.)

If two of those top three did lose, enough poll voters would manipulate their ballots to make sure a 12-0 Baylor team was ahead of any one-loss team in the BCS standings, even if Stanford remains ahead in the computers. An undefeated P5 team hasn't failed to make the BCS title game unless they were behind at least two other undefeated teams.

The only thing Stanford has is first place among one-loss teams, which only helps them if more undefeated teams lose.

You can just ignore Baylor all you want. They aren't going away. Ohio St isn't a lock if Alabama loses. Not by any stretch of the imagination. Baylor's schedule the rest of the way is stronger than Ohio St- even giving Ohio St a 11-1 Michigan St team in the title game. If Alabama loses, the debate is just going to get stronger. The problem for Ohio St- while they are playing weaklings Illinois and Indiana, Baylor gets Texas Tech and Oklahoma St- 2 ranked teams.

You're saying that you think Baylor deserves to pass Ohio State even if all the remaining undefeated teams win out.

That may be so, but what I'm saying is different: I'm saying that Baylor won't actually pass Ohio State in the BCS standings unless Ohio State loses. That's an opinion of what will happen and not necessarily what I think "deserves" to happen.

I'm not saying that Bayler deserves it. I'm saying that because of the computers, Baylor will be ahead of Ohio St most likely in the BCS. Odds are really good that it's going to be pretty close in the polls. I do not think Ohio St will be ahead enough in the polls to balance out even a simple 1 spot disadvantage.

(11-08-2013 12:57 PM)samandrea Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 12:11 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 12:06 PM)samandrea Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 12:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 11:51 AM)Wedge Wrote:  This is purely a question for message board entertainment unless two of Alabama, Florida State, and Ohio State lose.

(Maybe the voters would drop Ohio State to #4 if they have close wins against cream puffs, maybe not. And just to be safe, Ohio State needs to get an 11-1 Michigan State team in the Big Ten title game and not a team dinged with 2 or 3 losses.)

If two of those top three did lose, enough poll voters would manipulate their ballots to make sure a 12-0 Baylor team was ahead of any one-loss team in the BCS standings, even if Stanford remains ahead in the computers. An undefeated P5 team hasn't failed to make the BCS title game unless they were behind at least two other undefeated teams.

The only thing Stanford has is first place among one-loss teams, which only helps them if more undefeated teams lose.

You can just ignore Baylor all you want. They aren't going away. Ohio St isn't a lock if Alabama loses. Not by any stretch of the imagination. Baylor's schedule the rest of the way is stronger than Ohio St- even giving Ohio St a 11-1 Michigan St team in the title game. If Alabama loses, the debate is just going to get stronger. The problem for Ohio St- while they are playing weaklings Illinois and Indiana, Baylor gets Texas Tech and Oklahoma St- 2 ranked teams.

Ohio State also gets Mich, which is not far behind tech and Ok st in the computer polls and likely Mich ST. There is not a huge difference in those schedules. Baylor's is tougher, but not by much. Mich St is 11 right now in one computer poll and could rise into top ten by CCG time. Baylor has as good an argument as Ohio State, but I still fall back on the premise that they had too far to climb and they must win the human polls if they both go undefeated.

Michigan and Michigan St fine. They match up well with Oklahoma St and Texas. TCU and Illinois are a wash. The Ohio St problem is the other opponent. Texas Tech blows away Indiana.

For the love of God, they DON'T have to win the human polls. Baylor WILL be ahead of Ohio St in the computers. Ohio St doesn't only have to win the human polls, but they have to win by a fairly decent sized margin. That's going to be the problem.

We will have to see it play out. I am just saying, the computers are just one third. The human polls are two thirds. Baylor has to win the computers by a large amount if they are behind in the human polls to jump them period.

False. I think what you are thinking is that if Ohio St is up by even 1 vote in the human polls, that is a big deal. It's not. It's the percentage of votes. It's goign to be a close vote, so that won't matter. Now, in the computers, if Baylor is .825 and Ohio St is .824- that is a big deal. Baylor would get credit for say 3rd and Ohio St 4th.

(11-08-2013 01:07 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 12:23 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 12:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-08-2013 11:51 AM)Wedge Wrote:  This is purely a question for message board entertainment unless two of Alabama, Florida State, and Ohio State lose.

(Maybe the voters would drop Ohio State to #4 if they have close wins against cream puffs, maybe not. And just to be safe, Ohio State needs to get an 11-1 Michigan State team in the Big Ten title game and not a team dinged with 2 or 3 losses.)

If two of those top three did lose, enough poll voters would manipulate their ballots to make sure a 12-0 Baylor team was ahead of any one-loss team in the BCS standings, even if Stanford remains ahead in the computers. An undefeated P5 team hasn't failed to make the BCS title game unless they were behind at least two other undefeated teams.

The only thing Stanford has is first place among one-loss teams, which only helps them if more undefeated teams lose.

You can just ignore Baylor all you want. They aren't going away. Ohio St isn't a lock if Alabama loses. Not by any stretch of the imagination. Baylor's schedule the rest of the way is stronger than Ohio St- even giving Ohio St a 11-1 Michigan St team in the title game. If Alabama loses, the debate is just going to get stronger. The problem for Ohio St- while they are playing weaklings Illinois and Indiana, Baylor gets Texas Tech and Oklahoma St- 2 ranked teams.

You're saying that you think Baylor deserves to pass Ohio State even if all the remaining undefeated teams win out.

That may be so, but what I'm saying is different: I'm saying that Baylor won't actually pass Ohio State in the BCS standings unless Ohio State loses. That's an opinion of what will happen and not necessarily what I think "deserves" to happen.

I'm not saying that Bayler deserves it. I'm saying that because of the computers, Baylor will be ahead of Ohio St most likely in the BCS. Odds are really good that it's going to be pretty close in the polls. I do not think Ohio St will be ahead enough in the polls to balance out even a simple 1 spot disadvantage.

For all of our kvetching about OSU's computer weakness, they will likely be #3 in the computers after this week's games. If everyone wins out, OSU will finish no lower than #5, and likely #4, in the computers and Baylor will be no higher than #3; even if Bama or FSU lose, OSU almost certainly will be, even in the Buckeyes' worst-case scenario, no worse than two spots behind Baylor in the final computer rankings, and likely only one spot behind.

I think the Ohio State brand name and the fact that they'll be on a 25-game winning streak if they win out will carry enough weight to keep them far enough ahead of Baylor on the ballots to offset any computer disadvantage.

I have doubts about Ohio St being #3 in the computers. I mean, even last week they were 4 3 2 8 5 7. They will be dropping quite a bit in the 1st 3 computers.

this weeks top 6 computers
1 FSU 1.00
2 Alabama 2.25
3 Oregon 2.75
4 Ohio St 4.75
5 Stanford 6.25
6 Auburn 7.25
Baylor was 9.5

I don't think it's a guarantee at all that Ohio St will be ahead of Stanford in the computers at all this week. Not with them not playing and the team immediately behind them beating the #3 computer team.

You do understand, in what you say is the Buckeye's worst case scenario end of the year- 2 spots gap between the 2- Ohio St would need to be 105 harris AND 62 coaches votes ahead of Baylor. There is ZERO chance of Ohio St being up that much. Even right now, they are only up by 150 harris and 70 coaches votes. That margin will narrow considerably as we go along.

Computers are important in the process, but they've been reduced to 1/3 the process. Regardless, I doubt both Baylor and Ohio State go unbeaten.