(11-03-2013 07:22 PM)trojanbrutha Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 05:21 PM)MTowho Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 10:23 AM)FoUTASportscaster Wrote:  

(11-02-2013 10:19 PM)TXSTRiverBobcat Wrote:  This thread should be called bowl ELIGIBLE possibilities. Either that or start talking about what it's going to take for certain teams to actually make a bowl game since it looks like only 2 Sun Belt teams will actually go this year. 3 max.

Don't be so sure.
AAC 5.5 tie ins for 10 teams (they split the Liberty with C-USA), 4 bowl eligible (BE) teams, 1 with 5 wins, 2 with 6 losses, 2 not BE.

ACC 8 tie ins for 14 teams, six teams BE, one team at five wins, three with five losses, 1 not BE

B10 8 tie ins for 14 teams, six teams BE, 1 team with 5 wins, 2 not BE

B12 7 tie ins for 10 teams, 5 BE, 2 with six losses, 1 not BE

C-USA 5.5 tie ins for 14 teams, 4 BE, two with 5 wins, 3 with 6 losses, 3 not BE

Indy 3 tie ins for Army 3-6, BYU 6-2, Navy 4-4

MAC 3 ties in for 13 teams, 5 BE, 1 team with 5 wins, 6 not BE

MWC 7 ties in for 12 teams, 2 teams BE, 3 with five wins, 2 with 6 losses, 2 not BE

P12 - 7 tie ins for 12 teams, six teams BE, 1 team with 5 wins, 1 team not BE.

SEC 10 tie ins for 14 teams, 6 BE, 2 with 5 wins, two with 6 losses.

SBC 2 tie ins for 8 teams, 2 BE, 3 with 5 wins, 1 not BE.

There are four at-larges in the BCS, which early on look to go to the SEC, P12, ACC and B12. Fresno State and Northern Illinois going undefeated would ensure that one of them would be in.

The AAC may get just enough teams, the ACC will almost assuredly not, the B10 could but isn't guaranteed, C-USA may be, though the slot they share with the AAC may go unfilled by either, the B10 will at best meet their slots, but could leave one short, the B12 is border line and if they send two teams to BCS's then certainly not,Army certainly won't go bowling and Navy may not, Notre Dame will certainly fill someone's at-large as a BCS looks out of the question, MAC will fill and be the SBC's main competition for at-large slots, MWC doesn't look like it will fill its slots even if Fresno doesn't go to a BCS, the P12 will and if Oregon goes to the NC, then they will not likely have at-larges and if the SEC sends a team to the NC as well as the sugar, their 14 teams can't fill 11 slots, so one or two will open there.

My bet is that C-USA won't send any more than their allotment, the MWC, B10, B12 and SEC won't fill their commitments while only the MAC will have any meaningful surplus for the SBC to compete with. Being in the footprint where most bowls are, the SBC will have the better options for bowl committees. Also, if I am not mistaken, the SBC has a secondary tie in with Little Ceasars and the B10 looks like it won't fill it.

I'd say bare minimum, the SBC gets three and I could see four again.

The ACC has 8 ties and can very realistically have 11 teams, more likely 10, bowl eligible. They'll have a few extra teams laying around, and Notre Dame also needs somewhere to go. There won't be many extra slots beyond 3 or 4. Big 10 won't fill one, maybe two if Illinois doesn't get eligible. The Pac 12 could also very likely have an extra team. The SEC will likely have 11, which exactly fills their slots and a national title slot.

Any extra ACC, Pac 12, Notre Dame type teams will get first dibs over any CUSA, SBC, or MAC leftovers. I wouldn't hold your breath. Nice analysis, but I think you're being a little optimistic.

I'm not expecting any extra slots for us. Glad I'm not fighting against 3-4 other conference teams for one slot.

Of course not...you want it handed to you...the allure of cusa...

Sent from trojanbruthazICS using Tapatalk 4

Unfortunately, I think the MTSU guy is right on the mark this year. I'm assuming the NCG is Alabama - Florida State, Sugar (Mizzou - Stanford), Rose (Ohio State - Oregon), Fiesta (Baylor - Fresno State), Orange (Clemson - UCF)

So lets add it up.

AAC - 5 teams will be bowling. They will leave the Beef O Brady slot open (vs. CUSA)
ACC - 9 teams will be bowling. They have 8 slots. But since Florida State will be playing in the NCG. Remember ND will be taking an ACC slot this year.
Big XII - 7 teams will be bowling. They have 9 slots
Big Ten - 8 teams will be bowling. They have 8 slots
Conference USA - 6 teams will bowling. They have 7 slots, but the number 7 slot may be the NOB vs the Sun Belt (hopefully not which would be a problem). Also, we need UTSA to lose some games.
MAC - 6 bowl eligible teams - 3 slots. 3 teams looking for a bowl.
MWC - 7 bowl eligible teams - 7 slots including Fresno State in the BCS
Pac 12 - 8 eligible teams. 7 slots. One team looking for a place to play.
SEC - 10 eligible teams. 11 slots with Alabama in the NCG. 1 open slot.
Sun Belt 6 eligible teams. 2 slots. 4 teams looking for a home.
Navy - will take their bowl slot.
BYU will take their bowl slot
Army will not.

So - here's what's projected to be open.

1) SDCU Bowl against MWC
2) Beef o Brady Bowl against CUSA
3) Military Bowl against ACC
4) Advocare vs ACC

The PAC12 open team goes to San Diego.
The Beef O Brady has a secondary with the MAC.

Neither the Military nor the Advocare (independence) have secondaries).

Hopefully, the Sun Belt gets the Independence slot. I think the Military Bowl will do what they did last year, which is auction off the bid to the highest bidder. We will be competing with MAC schools for that slot. All SBC schools should be evaluating how much they wish to pay to play in that one.

So 3 is possible. But 4 is looking increasingly unlikely. More teams could get BE from the bigger conferences. CUSA could leave the NOB slot open (unlikely if Tulane is in the mix) removing a possible home for a SBC team. But the most likely result from that would be that the Military would be filled by CUSA, which I see as a likely MAC team.

We need Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Florida, and Vanderbilt to lose every game they play against someone else.

I thought I read somewhere that UTSA wouldn't be eligible for a bowl spot until next year.....though with so much bowl talk, it's quite possible I'm confused. I spend most of my life that way.

And for what it's worth, I see UTSA beating Tulane and LaTech and losing to UNT.....ie finishing at 6-6

(11-03-2013 09:58 PM)CajunFanatico Wrote:  And for what it's worth, I see UTSA beating Tulane and LaTech and losing to UNT.....ie finishing at 6-6

We need Mississippi State to win the rest of their games.

CUSA will have 7 bowl eligible teams. FAU is often overlooked. They need 3 more wins and their remaining games are against Southern Miss, New Mexico State, and FIU. Hard to see them not becoming bowl eligible.

FAU will be eligible unless New Mexico State does us a solid.

We do have a backup with the Little Ceasers this year in case the Big 10 falls short. So we can at least hope there...

(11-03-2013 10:24 PM)Louisianafanrcajun90 Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 09:58 PM)CajunFanatico Wrote:  And for what it's worth, I see UTSA beating Tulane and LaTech and losing to UNT.....ie finishing at 6-6

We need Mississippi State to win the rest of their games.

No we don't. We want the SEC to have an open bowl slot.

Miss State still has sure losses against A&M and Alabama left. They will have to win at Arkansas and at home against Ole Miss to go to a bowl.

Ole Miss is in, unless they fall apart and lose home games to Troy Arkansas and Missouri and lose at MSU.

Now Florida is not a certainty. They have sure losses to South Carolina and Florida State still left. If they were to lose to either Vandy or Georgia Southern they will not go bowling. It is better for us for Vandy to beat Florida, because Vandy still has Kentucky and Wake left and will almost assuredly be eligible regardless what happens in Gainesville this week.

Arkansas and Kentucky are done.

(11-03-2013 08:54 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 07:22 PM)trojanbrutha Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 05:21 PM)MTowho Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 10:23 AM)FoUTASportscaster Wrote:  

(11-02-2013 10:19 PM)TXSTRiverBobcat Wrote:  This thread should be called bowl ELIGIBLE possibilities. Either that or start talking about what it's going to take for certain teams to actually make a bowl game since it looks like only 2 Sun Belt teams will actually go this year. 3 max.

Don't be so sure.
AAC 5.5 tie ins for 10 teams (they split the Liberty with C-USA), 4 bowl eligible (BE) teams, 1 with 5 wins, 2 with 6 losses, 2 not BE.

ACC 8 tie ins for 14 teams, six teams BE, one team at five wins, three with five losses, 1 not BE

B10 8 tie ins for 14 teams, six teams BE, 1 team with 5 wins, 2 not BE

B12 7 tie ins for 10 teams, 5 BE, 2 with six losses, 1 not BE

C-USA 5.5 tie ins for 14 teams, 4 BE, two with 5 wins, 3 with 6 losses, 3 not BE

Indy 3 tie ins for Army 3-6, BYU 6-2, Navy 4-4

MAC 3 ties in for 13 teams, 5 BE, 1 team with 5 wins, 6 not BE

MWC 7 ties in for 12 teams, 2 teams BE, 3 with five wins, 2 with 6 losses, 2 not BE

P12 - 7 tie ins for 12 teams, six teams BE, 1 team with 5 wins, 1 team not BE.

SEC 10 tie ins for 14 teams, 6 BE, 2 with 5 wins, two with 6 losses.

SBC 2 tie ins for 8 teams, 2 BE, 3 with 5 wins, 1 not BE.

There are four at-larges in the BCS, which early on look to go to the SEC, P12, ACC and B12. Fresno State and Northern Illinois going undefeated would ensure that one of them would be in.

The AAC may get just enough teams, the ACC will almost assuredly not, the B10 could but isn't guaranteed, C-USA may be, though the slot they share with the AAC may go unfilled by either, the B10 will at best meet their slots, but could leave one short, the B12 is border line and if they send two teams to BCS's then certainly not,Army certainly won't go bowling and Navy may not, Notre Dame will certainly fill someone's at-large as a BCS looks out of the question, MAC will fill and be the SBC's main competition for at-large slots, MWC doesn't look like it will fill its slots even if Fresno doesn't go to a BCS, the P12 will and if Oregon goes to the NC, then they will not likely have at-larges and if the SEC sends a team to the NC as well as the sugar, their 14 teams can't fill 11 slots, so one or two will open there.

My bet is that C-USA won't send any more than their allotment, the MWC, B10, B12 and SEC won't fill their commitments while only the MAC will have any meaningful surplus for the SBC to compete with. Being in the footprint where most bowls are, the SBC will have the better options for bowl committees. Also, if I am not mistaken, the SBC has a secondary tie in with Little Ceasars and the B10 looks like it won't fill it.

I'd say bare minimum, the SBC gets three and I could see four again.

The ACC has 8 ties and can very realistically have 11 teams, more likely 10, bowl eligible. They'll have a few extra teams laying around, and Notre Dame also needs somewhere to go. There won't be many extra slots beyond 3 or 4. Big 10 won't fill one, maybe two if Illinois doesn't get eligible. The Pac 12 could also very likely have an extra team. The SEC will likely have 11, which exactly fills their slots and a national title slot.

Any extra ACC, Pac 12, Notre Dame type teams will get first dibs over any CUSA, SBC, or MAC leftovers. I wouldn't hold your breath. Nice analysis, but I think you're being a little optimistic.

I'm not expecting any extra slots for us. Glad I'm not fighting against 3-4 other conference teams for one slot.

Of course not...you want it handed to you...the allure of cusa...

Sent from trojanbruthazICS using Tapatalk 4

Unfortunately, I think the MTSU guy is right on the mark this year. I'm assuming the NCG is Alabama - Florida State, Sugar (Mizzou - Stanford), Rose (Ohio State - Oregon), Fiesta (Baylor - Fresno State), Orange (Clemson - UCF)

So lets add it up.

AAC - 5 teams will be bowling. They will leave the Beef O Brady slot open (vs. CUSA)
ACC - 9 teams will be bowling. They have 8 slots. But since Florida State will be playing in the NCG. Remember ND will be taking an ACC slot this year.
Big XII - 7 teams will be bowling. They have 9 slots
Big Ten - 8 teams will be bowling. They have 8 slots
Conference USA - 6 teams will bowling. They have 7 slots, but the number 7 slot may be the NOB vs the Sun Belt (hopefully not which would be a problem). Also, we need UTSA to lose some games.
MAC - 6 bowl eligible teams - 3 slots. 3 teams looking for a bowl.
MWC - 7 bowl eligible teams - 7 slots including Fresno State in the BCS
Pac 12 - 8 eligible teams. 7 slots. One team looking for a place to play.
SEC - 10 eligible teams. 11 slots with Alabama in the NCG. 1 open slot.
Sun Belt 6 eligible teams. 2 slots. 4 teams looking for a home.
Navy - will take their bowl slot.
BYU will take their bowl slot
Army will not.

So - here's what's projected to be open.

1) SDCU Bowl against MWC
2) Beef o Brady Bowl against CUSA
3) Military Bowl against ACC
4) Advocare vs ACC

The PAC12 open team goes to San Diego.
The Beef O Brady has a secondary with the MAC.

Neither the Military nor the Advocare (independence) have secondaries).

Hopefully, the Sun Belt gets the Independence slot. I think the Military Bowl will do what they did last year, which is auction off the bid to the highest bidder. We will be competing with MAC schools for that slot. All SBC schools should be evaluating how much they wish to pay to play in that one.

So 3 is possible. But 4 is looking increasingly unlikely. More teams could get BE from the bigger conferences. CUSA could leave the NOB slot open (unlikely if Tulane is in the mix) removing a possible home for a SBC team. But the most likely result from that would be that the Military would be filled by CUSA, which I see as a likely MAC team.

We need Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Florida, and Vanderbilt to lose every game they play against someone else.

That's interesting.....Go Daddy, NO Bowl and Beef O'Brady will be at Cajun Field Thursday night.

(11-03-2013 10:24 PM)Louisianafanrcajun90 Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 09:58 PM)CajunFanatico Wrote:  And for what it's worth, I see UTSA beating Tulane and LaTech and losing to UNT.....ie finishing at 6-6

We need Mississippi State to win the rest of their games.

Or at least get to six and/or beat Ole Miss.

(11-03-2013 12:01 PM)Arrowhead Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 10:45 AM)balanced_view Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 10:23 AM)FoUTASportscaster Wrote:  

(11-02-2013 10:19 PM)TXSTRiverBobcat Wrote:  This thread should be called bowl ELIGIBLE possibilities. Either that or start talking about what it's going to take for certain teams to actually make a bowl game since it looks like only 2 Sun Belt teams will actually go this year. 3 max.

Don't be so sure.
AAC 5.5 tie ins for 10 teams (they split the Liberty with C-USA), 4 bowl eligible (BE) teams, 1 with 5 wins, 2 with 6 losses, 2 not BE.

ACC 8 tie ins for 14 teams, six teams BE, one team at five wins, three with five losses, 1 not BE

B10 8 tie ins for 14 teams, six teams BE, 1 team with 5 wins, 2 not BE

B12 7 tie ins for 10 teams, 5 BE, 2 with six losses, 1 not BE

C-USA 5.5 tie ins for 14 teams, 4 BE, two with 5 wins, 3 with 6 losses, 3 not BE

Indy 3 tie ins for Army 3-6, BYU 6-2, Navy 4-4

MAC 3 ties in for 13 teams, 5 BE, 1 team with 5 wins, 6 not BE

MWC 7 ties in for 12 teams, 2 teams BE, 3 with five wins, 2 with 6 losses, 2 not BE

P12 - 7 tie ins for 12 teams, six teams BE, 1 team with 5 wins, 1 team not BE.

SEC 10 tie ins for 14 teams, 6 BE, 2 with 5 wins, two with 6 losses.

SBC 2 tie ins for 8 teams, 2 BE, 3 with 5 wins, 1 not BE.

There are four at-larges in the BCS, which early on look to go to the SEC, P12, ACC and B12. Fresno State and Northern Illinois going undefeated would ensure that one of them would be in.

The AAC may get just enough teams, the ACC will almost assuredly not, the B10 could but isn't guaranteed, C-USA may be, though the slot they share with the AAC may go unfilled by either, the B10 will at best meet their slots, but could leave one short, the B12 is border line and if they send two teams to BCS's then certainly not,Army certainly won't go bowling and Navy may not, Notre Dame will certainly fill someone's at-large as a BCS looks out of the question, MAC will fill and be the SBC's main competition for at-large slots, MWC doesn't look like it will fill its slots even if Fresno doesn't go to a BCS, the P12 will and if Oregon goes to the NC, then they will not likely have at-larges and if the SEC sends a team to the NC as well as the sugar, their 14 teams can't fill 11 slots, so one or two will open there.

My bet is that C-USA won't send any more than their allotment, the MWC, B10, B12 and SEC won't fill their commitments while only the MAC will have any meaningful surplus for the SBC to compete with. Being in the footprint where most bowls are, the SBC will have the better options for bowl committees. Also, if I am not mistaken, the SBC has a secondary tie in with Little Ceasars and the B10 looks like it won't fill it.

I'd say bare minimum, the SBC gets three and I could see four again.

great post. i was thinking along the same line, but to lazy to type it all. so yes i say at very least, 3 teams go bowling. 4 teams have a good chance. but still a lot of football to play before things become clear.

Within the next few weeks for bowl eligible teams, it gets fun figuring out who you need to lose and watching those games. UTA, maybe you can put that together for us.

I'll be all over it.

That's interesting.....Go Daddy, NO Bowl and Beef O'Brady will be at Cajun Field Thursday night.

Last year when the Cajuns knotched win #7, the invite came from the New Orleans Bowl. Think that'll happen this year too if the Cajuns can beat Troy?

Personally, if the Cajuns can get past Troy, I'd like to see them back in the New Orleans Bowl. How do you guys feel about that? Anyone prefer to see them in the GoDaddy Bowl? If so, why?

(11-03-2013 12:01 PM)Arrowhead Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 10:45 AM)balanced_view Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 10:23 AM)FoUTASportscaster Wrote:  

(11-02-2013 10:19 PM)TXSTRiverBobcat Wrote:  This thread should be called bowl ELIGIBLE possibilities. Either that or start talking about what it's going to take for certain teams to actually make a bowl game since it looks like only 2 Sun Belt teams will actually go this year. 3 max.

Don't be so sure.
AAC 5.5 tie ins for 10 teams (they split the Liberty with C-USA), 4 bowl eligible (BE) teams, 1 with 5 wins, 2 with 6 losses, 2 not BE.

ACC 8 tie ins for 14 teams, six teams BE, one team at five wins, three with five losses, 1 not BE

B10 8 tie ins for 14 teams, six teams BE, 1 team with 5 wins, 2 not BE

B12 7 tie ins for 10 teams, 5 BE, 2 with six losses, 1 not BE

C-USA 5.5 tie ins for 14 teams, 4 BE, two with 5 wins, 3 with 6 losses, 3 not BE

Indy 3 tie ins for Army 3-6, BYU 6-2, Navy 4-4

MAC 3 ties in for 13 teams, 5 BE, 1 team with 5 wins, 6 not BE

MWC 7 ties in for 12 teams, 2 teams BE, 3 with five wins, 2 with 6 losses, 2 not BE

P12 - 7 tie ins for 12 teams, six teams BE, 1 team with 5 wins, 1 team not BE.

SEC 10 tie ins for 14 teams, 6 BE, 2 with 5 wins, two with 6 losses.

SBC 2 tie ins for 8 teams, 2 BE, 3 with 5 wins, 1 not BE.

There are four at-larges in the BCS, which early on look to go to the SEC, P12, ACC and B12. Fresno State and Northern Illinois going undefeated would ensure that one of them would be in.

The AAC may get just enough teams, the ACC will almost assuredly not, the B10 could but isn't guaranteed, C-USA may be, though the slot they share with the AAC may go unfilled by either, the B10 will at best meet their slots, but could leave one short, the B12 is border line and if they send two teams to BCS's then certainly not,Army certainly won't go bowling and Navy may not, Notre Dame will certainly fill someone's at-large as a BCS looks out of the question, MAC will fill and be the SBC's main competition for at-large slots, MWC doesn't look like it will fill its slots even if Fresno doesn't go to a BCS, the P12 will and if Oregon goes to the NC, then they will not likely have at-larges and if the SEC sends a team to the NC as well as the sugar, their 14 teams can't fill 11 slots, so one or two will open there.

My bet is that C-USA won't send any more than their allotment, the MWC, B10, B12 and SEC won't fill their commitments while only the MAC will have any meaningful surplus for the SBC to compete with. Being in the footprint where most bowls are, the SBC will have the better options for bowl committees. Also, if I am not mistaken, the SBC has a secondary tie in with Little Ceasars and the B10 looks like it won't fill it.

I'd say bare minimum, the SBC gets three and I could see four again.

great post. i was thinking along the same line, but to lazy to type it all. so yes i say at very least, 3 teams go bowling. 4 teams have a good chance. but still a lot of football to play before things become clear.

Within the next few weeks for bowl eligible teams, it gets fun figuring out who you need to lose and watching those games. UTA, maybe you can put that together for us.

I'll be all over it.

(11-03-2013 05:21 PM)MTowho Wrote:  The ACC has 8 ties and can very realistically have 11 teams, more likely 10, bowl eligible. They'll have a few extra teams laying around, and Notre Dame also needs somewhere to go. There won't be many extra slots beyond 3 or 4. Big 10 won't fill one, maybe two if Illinois doesn't get eligible. The Pac 12 could also very likely have an extra team. The SEC will likely have 11, which exactly fills their slots and a national title slot.

Any extra ACC, Pac 12, Notre Dame type teams will get first dibs over any CUSA, SBC, or MAC leftovers. I wouldn't hold your breath. Nice analysis, but I think you're being a little optimistic.

I'm not expecting any extra slots for us. Glad I'm not fighting against 3-4 other conference teams for one slot.

I wouldn't bet on the SEC getting 11. They will likely have two int he BCS games and then another 9 tie ins. Kentucky and Arkansas have six losses, so they will likely not win out. Tennessee is 4-5 with games against Auburn, Vandy and Kentucky. Vandy is 4-4 with games against Kentucky, Tenn, Florida and Wake Forest. Florida is 4-4 with games against Vandy, S. Carolina, our own Georgia Southern and Florida State. Mississippi is 4-4 with games against Texas A&M, Arkansas, Ole Miss and Alabama.

Now it is possible that the games could just fall where there are a bunch of 6-6 teams, but it would have to be very precise and statistically unlikely. I would wager they will not have 11 BE teams.

(11-03-2013 08:54 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 07:22 PM)trojanbrutha Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 05:21 PM)MTowho Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 10:23 AM)FoUTASportscaster Wrote:  

(11-02-2013 10:19 PM)TXSTRiverBobcat Wrote:  This thread should be called bowl ELIGIBLE possibilities. Either that or start talking about what it's going to take for certain teams to actually make a bowl game since it looks like only 2 Sun Belt teams will actually go this year. 3 max.

Don't be so sure.
AAC 5.5 tie ins for 10 teams (they split the Liberty with C-USA), 4 bowl eligible (BE) teams, 1 with 5 wins, 2 with 6 losses, 2 not BE.

ACC 8 tie ins for 14 teams, six teams BE, one team at five wins, three with five losses, 1 not BE

B10 8 tie ins for 14 teams, six teams BE, 1 team with 5 wins, 2 not BE

B12 7 tie ins for 10 teams, 5 BE, 2 with six losses, 1 not BE

C-USA 5.5 tie ins for 14 teams, 4 BE, two with 5 wins, 3 with 6 losses, 3 not BE

Indy 3 tie ins for Army 3-6, BYU 6-2, Navy 4-4

MAC 3 ties in for 13 teams, 5 BE, 1 team with 5 wins, 6 not BE

MWC 7 ties in for 12 teams, 2 teams BE, 3 with five wins, 2 with 6 losses, 2 not BE

P12 - 7 tie ins for 12 teams, six teams BE, 1 team with 5 wins, 1 team not BE.

SEC 10 tie ins for 14 teams, 6 BE, 2 with 5 wins, two with 6 losses.

SBC 2 tie ins for 8 teams, 2 BE, 3 with 5 wins, 1 not BE.

There are four at-larges in the BCS, which early on look to go to the SEC, P12, ACC and B12. Fresno State and Northern Illinois going undefeated would ensure that one of them would be in.

The AAC may get just enough teams, the ACC will almost assuredly not, the B10 could but isn't guaranteed, C-USA may be, though the slot they share with the AAC may go unfilled by either, the B10 will at best meet their slots, but could leave one short, the B12 is border line and if they send two teams to BCS's then certainly not,Army certainly won't go bowling and Navy may not, Notre Dame will certainly fill someone's at-large as a BCS looks out of the question, MAC will fill and be the SBC's main competition for at-large slots, MWC doesn't look like it will fill its slots even if Fresno doesn't go to a BCS, the P12 will and if Oregon goes to the NC, then they will not likely have at-larges and if the SEC sends a team to the NC as well as the sugar, their 14 teams can't fill 11 slots, so one or two will open there.

My bet is that C-USA won't send any more than their allotment, the MWC, B10, B12 and SEC won't fill their commitments while only the MAC will have any meaningful surplus for the SBC to compete with. Being in the footprint where most bowls are, the SBC will have the better options for bowl committees. Also, if I am not mistaken, the SBC has a secondary tie in with Little Ceasars and the B10 looks like it won't fill it.

I'd say bare minimum, the SBC gets three and I could see four again.

The ACC has 8 ties and can very realistically have 11 teams, more likely 10, bowl eligible. They'll have a few extra teams laying around, and Notre Dame also needs somewhere to go. There won't be many extra slots beyond 3 or 4. Big 10 won't fill one, maybe two if Illinois doesn't get eligible. The Pac 12 could also very likely have an extra team. The SEC will likely have 11, which exactly fills their slots and a national title slot.

Any extra ACC, Pac 12, Notre Dame type teams will get first dibs over any CUSA, SBC, or MAC leftovers. I wouldn't hold your breath. Nice analysis, but I think you're being a little optimistic.

I'm not expecting any extra slots for us. Glad I'm not fighting against 3-4 other conference teams for one slot.

Of course not...you want it handed to you...the allure of cusa...

Sent from trojanbruthazICS using Tapatalk 4

Unfortunately, I think the MTSU guy is right on the mark this year. I'm assuming the NCG is Alabama - Florida State, Sugar (Mizzou - Stanford), Rose (Ohio State - Oregon), Fiesta (Baylor - Fresno State), Orange (Clemson - UCF)

So lets add it up.

AAC - 5 teams will be bowling. They will leave the Beef O Brady slot open (vs. CUSA)
ACC - 9 teams will be bowling. They have 8 slots. But since Florida State will be playing in the NCG. Remember ND will be taking an ACC slot this year.
Big XII - 7 teams will be bowling. They have 9 slots
Big Ten - 8 teams will be bowling. They have 8 slots
Conference USA - 6 teams will bowling. They have 7 slots, but the number 7 slot may be the NOB vs the Sun Belt (hopefully not which would be a problem). Also, we need UTSA to lose some games.
MAC - 6 bowl eligible teams - 3 slots. 3 teams looking for a bowl.
MWC - 7 bowl eligible teams - 7 slots including Fresno State in the BCS
Pac 12 - 8 eligible teams. 7 slots. One team looking for a place to play.
SEC - 10 eligible teams. 11 slots with Alabama in the NCG. 1 open slot.
Sun Belt 6 eligible teams. 2 slots. 4 teams looking for a home.
Navy - will take their bowl slot.
BYU will take their bowl slot
Army will not.

So - here's what's projected to be open.

1) SDCU Bowl against MWC
2) Beef o Brady Bowl against CUSA
3) Military Bowl against ACC
4) Advocare vs ACC

The PAC12 open team goes to San Diego.
The Beef O Brady has a secondary with the MAC.

Neither the Military nor the Advocare (independence) have secondaries).

Hopefully, the Sun Belt gets the Independence slot. I think the Military Bowl will do what they did last year, which is auction off the bid to the highest bidder. We will be competing with MAC schools for that slot. All SBC schools should be evaluating how much they wish to pay to play in that one.

So 3 is possible. But 4 is looking increasingly unlikely. More teams could get BE from the bigger conferences. CUSA could leave the NOB slot open (unlikely if Tulane is in the mix) removing a possible home for a SBC team. But the most likely result from that would be that the Military would be filled by CUSA, which I see as a likely MAC team.

We need Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Florida, and Vanderbilt to lose every game they play against someone else.

At this point, it is all conjecture. I personally don't think either the Big 10 or the Big 12 will fill all of their slots. The SEC could, but will have to have the dominoes fall very specifically. If Fresno St gets in a BCS, the MWC won't either. The only conference besides the SBC to have quite a bit more BE teams than slots is the MAC.

(11-04-2013 08:01 AM)FoUTASportscaster Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 12:01 PM)Arrowhead Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 10:45 AM)balanced_view Wrote:  

(11-03-2013 10:23 AM)FoUTASportscaster Wrote:  

(11-02-2013 10:19 PM)TXSTRiverBobcat Wrote:  This thread should be called bowl ELIGIBLE possibilities. Either that or start talking about what it's going to take for certain teams to actually make a bowl game since it looks like only 2 Sun Belt teams will actually go this year. 3 max.

Don't be so sure.
AAC 5.5 tie ins for 10 teams (they split the Liberty with C-USA), 4 bowl eligible (BE) teams, 1 with 5 wins, 2 with 6 losses, 2 not BE.

ACC 8 tie ins for 14 teams, six teams BE, one team at five wins, three with five losses, 1 not BE

B10 8 tie ins for 14 teams, six teams BE, 1 team with 5 wins, 2 not BE

B12 7 tie ins for 10 teams, 5 BE, 2 with six losses, 1 not BE

C-USA 5.5 tie ins for 14 teams, 4 BE, two with 5 wins, 3 with 6 losses, 3 not BE

Indy 3 tie ins for Army 3-6, BYU 6-2, Navy 4-4

MAC 3 ties in for 13 teams, 5 BE, 1 team with 5 wins, 6 not BE

MWC 7 ties in for 12 teams, 2 teams BE, 3 with five wins, 2 with 6 losses, 2 not BE

P12 - 7 tie ins for 12 teams, six teams BE, 1 team with 5 wins, 1 team not BE.

SEC 10 tie ins for 14 teams, 6 BE, 2 with 5 wins, two with 6 losses.

SBC 2 tie ins for 8 teams, 2 BE, 3 with 5 wins, 1 not BE.

There are four at-larges in the BCS, which early on look to go to the SEC, P12, ACC and B12. Fresno State and Northern Illinois going undefeated would ensure that one of them would be in.

The AAC may get just enough teams, the ACC will almost assuredly not, the B10 could but isn't guaranteed, C-USA may be, though the slot they share with the AAC may go unfilled by either, the B10 will at best meet their slots, but could leave one short, the B12 is border line and if they send two teams to BCS's then certainly not,Army certainly won't go bowling and Navy may not, Notre Dame will certainly fill someone's at-large as a BCS looks out of the question, MAC will fill and be the SBC's main competition for at-large slots, MWC doesn't look like it will fill its slots even if Fresno doesn't go to a BCS, the P12 will and if Oregon goes to the NC, then they will not likely have at-larges and if the SEC sends a team to the NC as well as the sugar, their 14 teams can't fill 11 slots, so one or two will open there.

My bet is that C-USA won't send any more than their allotment, the MWC, B10, B12 and SEC won't fill their commitments while only the MAC will have any meaningful surplus for the SBC to compete with. Being in the footprint where most bowls are, the SBC will have the better options for bowl committees. Also, if I am not mistaken, the SBC has a secondary tie in with Little Ceasars and the B10 looks like it won't fill it.

I'd say bare minimum, the SBC gets three and I could see four again.

great post. i was thinking along the same line, but to lazy to type it all. so yes i say at very least, 3 teams go bowling. 4 teams have a good chance. but still a lot of football to play before things become clear.

Within the next few weeks for bowl eligible teams, it gets fun figuring out who you need to lose and watching those games. UTA, maybe you can put that together for us.

I'll be all over it.

Thanks!

At this point, it is all conjecture. I personally don't think either the Big 10 or the Big 12 will fill all of their slots. The SEC could, but will have to have the dominoes fall very specifically. If Fresno St gets in a BCS, the MWC won't either. The only conference besides the SBC to have quite a bit more BE teams than slots is the MAC.
[/quote]

So then who will bowl's pick if a slot isn't filled? Will ESPN have the final say? Will ESPN want a MAC school with very poor ticket sales, but more TV market, or will a SBC school get the slot because they will bring 3X as many fans to the game?

I think any SBC team that gets to 7-5 will have a good shot at bowl. A 6-6 SBC team probably doesn't deserve a bowl anyway.

After looking at the whole she bang and all the different machinations of what if scenarios... I have decided one thing:

The bowl system sucks. ESPECIALLY when you are in a conference with only 2 guaranteed bowl slots.

Wow....just checked on Northern Illinois.....looks like they will be another BCS buster this year. I don't see how they won't finish undefeated if they get past next week.

(11-04-2013 12:00 PM)Fanof49ASU Wrote:  Wow....just checked on Northern Illinois.....looks like they will be another BCS buster this year. I don't see how they won't finish undefeated if they get past next week.

Their problem is Fresno St. Only one of them will play in a BCS game. Fresno is ranked higher right now and unless they lose NIU won't have any games coming up that can leapfrog them. UCF is ranked lower but will get the old BE tie in they don't deserve.

(11-03-2013 09:55 PM)CajunFanatico Wrote:  I thought I read somewhere that UTSA wouldn't be eligible for a bowl spot until next year.....though with so much bowl talk, it's quite possible I'm confused. I spend most of my life that way.

They are NOT eligible (still in FBS transition). However there is a loophole. If there are not enough teams qualify to fill all the bowl spots, a 6-6 or better UTSA team "could" be considered for a bowl game. I just don't think the bowls will have a problem filling spots this year; so likely they sit home, even if they win the conference title (obviously a long shot).

(11-04-2013 12:19 PM)slycat Wrote:  

(11-04-2013 12:00 PM)Fanof49ASU Wrote:  Wow....just checked on Northern Illinois.....looks like they will be another BCS buster this year. I don't see how they won't finish undefeated if they get past next week.

Their problem is Fresno St. Only one of them will play in a BCS game. Fresno is ranked higher right now and unless they lose NIU won't have any games coming up that can leapfrog them. UCF is ranked lower but will get the old BE tie in they don't deserve.

Doesn't the godaddy bowl get the MAC champion? Assuming Louisiana wins out and Northern Illinois gets sent to the the godaddy bowl, that would be a hell of a match up. If that were to happen, would the cajuns skip the New Orleans bowl in favor of the godaddy?