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Slinkin Street Flash Offline
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Post: #1
Basketball Stats 2014
I'm trying to evaluate the MAC players going into this season, and trying to project how some guys are going to respond with getting more minutes. This really depends on how well they shoot, but looking at free throw and field goals percentages, I didn't really know what a good percentage is.

To figure out what's good, I downloaded everyone's stats for the last few years, and figured out the conference averages

So - from 2007 to 2013, overall averages for all of the MAC -
Field Goals - overall - 42.9%
3 Pointers - 33.7%
Free Throws - 68.3%
2 pointers only (so Field Goals - 3 Pointers) - 47.5%

College teams take a lot of 3 pointers, which skews the percentages down for guards. The '2 pointer only' doesn't seem to be available anywhere, so I had to calculate it

And just in case you wondered, Ohio in 2013 had the best free throw percentage for any team in the MAC since 2007, with 76%, Northern Illinois in 2008 had the worst, with 59%

Akron in 2007 was the best at 3-pointers, with 39%, Ball State in 2007 was the worst with 27%

Ohio in 2013 was also the best in 2-pointers with 54%, and Northern Illinois in 2013 was the worst, with just 39.6% shooting
10-29-2013 08:29 AM
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Slinkin Street Flash Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Basketball Stats 2014
Statistically trying to predict who's going to be 1st, 2nd, and 3rd team All-MAC...

With college basketball, a lot of the success is based on the players who play part-time one season, and then with a graduation from the program, play a lot more minutes the next season.

I evaluate players based on Assists + Rebounds + Points. For 2013, you can see this reflected in the All-MAC awards:
Year TRB AST PTS A+R+P Honor Player School
2013 267 69 611 947 1st Javon McCrea Buffalo
2013 269 72 566 907 1st Chris Evans Kent
2013 109 242 480 831 1st D.J. Cooper Ohio
2013 308 40 463 811 2nd Shayne Whittington WMU
2013 109 79 581 769 2nd Kyle Randall CMU
2013 189 48 502 739 1st Rian Pearson Toledo
2013 228 25 484 737 2nd A'uston Calhoun BGSU
2013 111 84 514 709 3rd Randal Holt Kent
2013 82 139 479 700 HM Jordon Crawford BGSU
2013 231 25 428 684 1st Zeke Marshall Akron
2013 79 77 498 654 2nd Jauwan Scaife Ball
2013 295 19 321 635 3rd Majok Majok Ball
2013 237 48 345 630 2nd Demetrius Treadwell Akron
2013 198 58 367 623 Darius Paul WMU
2013 86 167 367 620 3rd Julius Brown Toledo
2013 152 24 412 588 3rd Reggie Keely Ohio
2013 166 58 352 576 HM Nate Hutcheson WMU
2013 143 70 360 573 3rd Walter Offutt Ohio
2013 151 33 376 560 Will Regan Buffalo
2013 95 113 349 557 Tony Watson Buffalo
2013 165 29 360 554 HM Will Felder Miami
2013 72 173 298 543 HM Alex Abreu Akron
2013 154 19 361 534 HM Glenn Bryant EMU
2013 163 47 302 512 Daylen Harrison EMU
2013 97 93 318 508 Kris Brewer Kent

All of the All-MAC honorees scored at the top of the lists for A+R+P. A couple of guys were bypassed on this, like Darius Paul, Will Regan, and Tony Watson

If you take 2013 stats and project them for 2014, with each player adjusted to play 1000 minutes, here's what you get:
Year proj.pts proj.tbr proj.ast proj.a+r+p 2013 honor School Player 2013 minutes
2014 599 262 67 928 1st Buffalo Javon McCrea 1019
2014 539 203 51 793 1st Toledo Rian Pearson 931
2014 444 295 38 777 2nd WMU Shayne Whittington 1041
2014 397 273 55 725 2nd Akron Demetrius Treadwell 867
2014 468 188 60 716 Akron Nick Harney 611
2014 417 186 78 681 Kent Darren Goodson 688
2014 343 315 20 678 3rd Ball Majok Majok 934
2014 390 91 177 658 3rd Toledo Julius Brown 941
2014 421 193 33 647 HM Miami Will Felder 854
2014 343 264 11 618 BGSU Richaun Holmes 602
2014 389 79 150 618 EMU Ray Lee 113
2014 460 101 47 608 WMU David Brown 523
2014 404 162 35 601 Buffalo Will Regan 930
2014 438 72 86 596 Ball Jesse Berry 787
2014 304 158 131 593 Buffalo Jarod Oldham 365
2014 290 92 203 585 CMU Chris Fowler 864
2014 305 243 27 575 Akron Pat Forsythe 370
2014 388 165 20 573 HM EMU Glenn Bryant 930
2014 336 210 27 573 Toledo Nathan Boothe 689

Not much surprising here. Nick Harney is projected to be productive here. Darren Goodson put up some good numbers in 2013 in limited minutes. Ray Lee only played 8 games last year, and should be back this year. Will Regan didn't get a lot of notice, even though he had a lot of rebounds and points. pat Forsythe should take up a lot of the minutes that graduated with Zeke.

Over projected? Maybe Nick Kellogg, Chauncey Orr, and John Simons. They all had a lot of minutes last year, but didn't score a lot - 8ppg, 7.5ppg, 7.4ppg in 800-900 minutes each.
10-31-2013 09:39 AM
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Slinkin Street Flash Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Basketball Stats 2014
I pulled down the Sagarin ratings for MAC teams for the 2000-2013 period. Each team listed with it's Win-loss record (division I games only), year-end position in the Sagarin ratings, and Sagarin value.
2000 16-11 #91 Akron ….77.91
2001 12-16 #183 Akron ….69.72
2002 9-21 #225 Akron ….68.9
2003 13-14 #172 Akron ….73.15
2004 13-15 #170 Akron ….72.14
2005 18-10 #89 Akron ….78.85
2006 22-10 #74 Akron ….79.85
2007 25-7 #63 Akron ….81.33
2008 24-11 #65 Akron ….80.4
2009 22-13 #104 Akron ….75.96
2010 23-11 #110 Akron ….76.03
2011 22-13 #122 Akron ….75.43
2012 21-12 #76 Akron ….79.77
2013 25-7 #68 Akron ….80.11
2000 21-9 #45 Ball State ….82.34
2001 16-12 #126 Ball State ….74.24
2002 23-12 #54 Ball State ….81.87
2003 13-17 #150 Ball State ….74.46
2004 13-15 #153 Ball State ….73.41
2005 14-13 #112 Ball State ….76.75
2006 8-18 #194 Ball State ….70.21
2007 9-22 #221 Ball State ….67.78
2008 6-24 #251 Ball State ….66.34
2009 14-17 #242 Ball State ….67.21
2010 14-15 #209 Ball State ….69.01
2011 18-12 #155 Ball State ….73.12
2012 14-15 #199 Ball State ….70.58
2013 14-15 #249 Ball State ….66.77
2000 21-8 #66 Bowling Green ….80.31
2001 13-14 #137 Bowling Green ….73.38
2002 23-9 #63 Bowling Green ….81.22
2003 11-16 #161 Bowling Green ….73.95
2004 12-17 #179 Bowling Green ….71.34
2005 17-11 #117 Bowling Green ….76.46
2006 7-21 #246 Bowling Green ….67.14
2007 11-18 #222 Bowling Green ….67.66
2008 13-17 #186 Bowling Green ….70.36
2009 17-14 #148 Bowling Green ….72.81
2010 13-16 #192 Bowling Green ….70.32
2011 13-19 #235 Bowling Green ….67.7
2012 15-16 #147 Bowling Green ….74.42
2013 11-19 #222 Bowling Green ….69.12
2000 5-23 #277 Buffalo ….61.25
2001 4-24 #273 Buffalo ….61.61
2002 12-18 #195 Buffalo ….70.91
2003 5-23 #265 Buffalo ….65.78
2004 17-12 #129 Buffalo ….75.12
2005 23-10 #77 Buffalo ….79.42
2006 18-13 #130 Buffalo ….75.3
2007 12-19 #206 Buffalo ….68.95
2008 9-20 #211 Buffalo ….68.54
2009 21-12 #114 Buffalo ….74.99
2010 17-12 #154 Buffalo ….73.25
2011 19-14 #117 Buffalo ….75.83
2012 19-11 #97 Buffalo ….78.3
2013 12-20 #188 Buffalo ….71.13
2000 5-23 #208 Central Michigan ….67.48
2001 18-8 #119 Central Michigan ….75.15
2002 8-19 #204 Central Michigan ….70.26
2003 24-7 #48 Central Michigan ….82.5
2004 5-24 #280 Central Michigan ….64.48
2005 8-18 #225 Central Michigan ….68.93
2006 3-24 #305 Central Michigan ….61.55
2007 13-18 #202 Central Michigan ….69.12
2008 13-16 #163 Central Michigan ….72.42
2009 12-19 #266 Central Michigan ….65.56
2010 14-15 #188 Central Michigan ….70.57
2011 9-21 #275 Central Michigan ….64.65
2012 10-21 #255 Central Michigan ….66.96
2013 10-20 #246 Central Michigan ….67.09
2000 13-13 #122 Eastern Michigan ….75.35
2001 3-25 #297 Eastern Michigan ….58.53
2002 5-24 #297 Eastern Michigan ….61.19
2003 12-14 #183 Eastern Michigan ….71.96
2004 10-15 #212 Eastern Michigan ….69.67
2005 11-18 #200 Eastern Michigan ….70.95
2006 7-21 #269 Eastern Michigan ….65.42
2007 13-19 #211 Eastern Michigan ….68.18
2008 14-17 #184 Eastern Michigan ….70.59
2009 6-24 #312 Eastern Michigan ….61.26
2010 15-15 #190 Eastern Michigan ….70.4
2011 6-22 #302 Eastern Michigan ….62.76
2012 13-18 #262 Eastern Michigan ….66.61
2013 13-18 #239 Eastern Michigan ….67.84
2000 21-8 #32 Kent State ….84.54
2001 23-10 #67 Kent State ….80.35
2002 29-6 #17 Kent State ….87.17
2003 20-10 #81 Kent State ….79.34
2004 21-9 #87 Kent State ….78.75
2005 18-13 #90 Kent State ….78.73
2006 24-9 #65 Kent State ….80.72
2007 20-11 #81 Kent State ….78.62
2008 28-7 #51 Kent State ….81.75
2009 18-15 #134 Kent State ….73.62
2010 23-10 #79 Kent State ….78.99
2011 24-12 #82 Kent State ….78.49
2012 20-12 #123 Kent State ….76.02
2013 20-14 #137 Kent State ….74.81
2000 19-9 #74 Marshall ….79.13
2001 16-9 #100 Marshall ….77.34
2002 13-15 #159 Marshall ….73.11
2003 13-15 #165 Marshall ….73.77
2004 12-17 #177 Marshall ….71.61
2005 6-22 #214 Marshall ….69.74
2000 15-15 #84 Miami-Ohio ….78.54
2001 17-16 #111 Miami-Ohio ….75.81
2002 13-18 #133 Miami-Ohio ….74.81
2003 12-15 #127 Miami-Ohio ….75.7
2004 17-11 #115 Miami-Ohio ….75.91
2005 18-11 #76 Miami-Ohio ….79.5
2006 18-11 #91 Miami-Ohio ….78.73
2007 18-15 #92 Miami-Ohio ….77.45
2008 17-16 #85 Miami-Ohio ….78.43
2009 17-13 #98 Miami-Ohio ….76.54
2010 14-18 #145 Miami-Ohio ….73.63
2011 15-17 #164 Miami-Ohio ….72.47
2012 8-21 #198 Miami-Ohio ….70.66
2013 8-22 #242 Miami-Ohio ….67.42
2000 12-15 #137 Northern Illinois ….74.39
2001 4-23 #287 Northern Illinois ….59.58
2002 12-16 #193 Northern Illinois ….71.2
2003 17-14 #116 Northern Illinois ….76.31
2004 8-19 #233 Northern Illinois ….68.32
2005 11-17 #144 Northern Illinois ….74.67
2006 16-11 #125 Northern Illinois ….75.7
2007 6-23 #249 Northern Illinois ….65.65
2008 6-22 #271 Northern Illinois ….65.19
2009 9-20 #298 Northern Illinois ….62.81
2010 10-20 #245 Northern Illinois ….65.97
2011 8-21 #282 Northern Illinois ….64.22
2012 4-26 #331 Northern Illinois ….58.51
2013 4-25 #321 Northern Illinois ….60.8
2000 20-13 #61 Ohio ….80.84
2001 18-11 #94 Ohio ….77.72
2002 17-11 #99 Ohio ….76.84
2003 14-16 #143 Ohio ….74.91
2004 10-20 #210 Ohio ….69.69
2005 21-11 #79 Ohio ….79.34
2006 18-11 #97 Ohio ….78.35
2007 18-13 #124 Ohio ….75.26
2008 20-13 #98 Ohio ….77.5
2009 15-17 #178 Ohio ….71.09
2010 21-15 #98 Ohio ….77
2011 19-16 #146 Ohio ….73.71
2012 28-8 #55 Ohio ….81.52
2013 24-10 #82 Ohio ….78.96
2000 18-13 #73 Toledo ….79.46
2001 22-11 #75 Toledo ….79.03
2002 16-14 #143 Toledo ….74.35
2003 13-16 #132 Toledo ….75.46
2004 20-11 #105 Toledo ….76.66
2005 15-13 #101 Toledo ….77.66
2006 19-11 #121 Toledo ….75.94
2007 19-13 #105 Toledo ….76.57
2008 11-19 #183 Toledo ….70.63
2009 6-25 #301 Toledo ….62.57
2010 3-28 #318 Toledo ….59.28
2011 3-28 #333 Toledo ….57.53
2012 17-17 #213 Toledo ….69.89
2013 15-13 #184 Toledo ….71.62
2000 10-18 #171 Western Michigan ….70.86
2001 7-21 #252 Western Michigan ….64.03
2002 17-13 #131 Western Michigan ….74.88
2003 20-11 #74 Western Michigan ….79.94
2004 26-5 #37 Western Michigan ….83.52
2005 19-13 #75 Western Michigan ….79.55
2006 13-17 #193 Western Michigan ….70.28
2007 15-16 #129 Western Michigan ….74.67
2008 20-12 #96 Western Michigan ….77.57
2009 10-21 #268 Western Michigan ….65.52
2010 17-15 #143 Western Michigan ….73.7
2011 20-13 #165 Western Michigan ….72.38
2012 13-20 #182 Western Michigan ….71.63
2013 21-13 #142 Western Michigan ….74.49
11-06-2013 08:12 AM
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Eagle66 Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Basketball Stats 2014
Interesting stuff. I always thought it would be interesting to compare players based on their stats above average. For example, say Player A averages 15 points 4 rebounds 6 assists and Player B averages 20 points 7 rebounds and 1 assist. Then say the league average (among players qualifying with x minutes played) is 12 points, 5 rebounds 3 assists. Player A would have a score of 5 (PTS +3, REB -1 AST +3) and Player B a score of 8 (PTS +8, REB +2, AST -2). I'm not sure if this skewes to heavily towards the top scorers though. I've never really had the time or stats to try it out.
11-06-2013 08:43 AM
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Slinkin Street Flash Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Basketball Stats 2014
Top MAC basketball newcomers after 3 weeks. Not including freshmen (covered elsewhere)

Eastern Michigan, Karrington Ward, F, 18.2 ppg, 6.2 rpg. (from Moraine valley CC)
Ohio, Maurice Ndour, F, 16.5 ppg, 4 rpg, 1.5 apg (from Monroe college CC)
Toledo, Justin Drummond, G/F, 13.5 ppg, 3.75 rpg, 2.5 apg (transfer from Loyola; 2012-2013 r/s)
Northern Illinois, Jordon Threloff, C, 9 ppg, 5.5 rpg (transfer from Illinois State)
Kent State, K.K. Simmons, G, 6.7ppg, 1.3 rpg, 1.4 apg in 14 minutes per game (transfer from UNC Wilmington, 2012-2013 r/s)
Central Michigan, Rayshawn Simmons, G, 5.33 ppg, 5.16rpg, 3.5 apg (from Moberly CC)
Toledo, J.D. Weatherspoon, F, 11.5 ppg, 6 rpg (transfer from tOSU; 2012-2013 r/s)
Buffalo, Josh Freelove, G, 13 ppg, 1.33rpg, 0.66 apg (transfer from Toledo, Lewis and Clark CC, 2012-2013 at Alabama State)
Eastern Michigan, Mike Talley, G, 7.6 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 4 apg (transfer from Duquense, 2012-2013 r/s)
Kent State, Derek Jackson, G, 11.28 ppg, 2.28 rpg, 1.14 apg (2010-2012 at CMU, last year off)
11-25-2013 03:01 PM
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