(10-28-2013 11:35 AM)bullet Wrote:  This is just one computer poll-Sagarin, but it gives a good indication of the trends (note, I'm getting this from another board). Based on this Oregon easily outdistances FSU and Baylor blows by Ohio St. and
AVERAGE - 104.1

Good information. Essentially what this shows is that FSU's best chance to pass Oregon is for Oregon to get tripped up by their tougher schedule and suffer a loss.

Re: Baylor

The B12 this year is going to suffer what the PAC suffered for many years. A 10 team conference playing a 9 game round robin means there are more loses to go around.

Take a look at Baylor's remaining schedule. They play OSU(ranked with 1 loss) on November 23rd. However, before that matchup, OSU has to play TT and Texas. If OSU wins those before the Baylor game, that means 2 of the teams on Baylor's schedule suffer another loss before Baylor gets to play them. And OSU still has to play Oklahoma. They could easily lose all 3 of those games and the Baylor game making them a 7-5 team at the end of a season that doesn't help Baylor's SOS much at all.

Texas still has to play TT and OSU.
OSU has to play TT, Texas, and OU.
TT has to play OSU and Texas.

It's possible that Baylor beats all 3 and all of them end up unranked or barely ranked at the end of the season because of loses they've inflicted on each other.

(10-28-2013 11:53 AM)JRsec Wrote:  [quote='bullet' pid='9919064' dateline='1382978129']
This is just one computer poll-Sagarin, but i

The weekend is setting up to benefit the Seminoles the most. I may get some hate for saying this but Miami is worst team in the top 15 let alone the top 10 and the top 15 has several suspect teams. They beat a terrible Florida team that outplayed them minus the turnovers, and barely escaped North Carolina and Wake Forest. I think F.S.U. exposes them this weekend and that only helps F.S.U.

This weekend will benefit FSU the most, but not nearly as much as they need it to to catch Oregon. Miami is already viewed as 'exposed' which is why FSU is a three TD favorite. Their high rank is strictly pro-forma at this point for being a major unbeaten, but they are already regarded as a paper tiger. So it will not be viewed as a big deal when FSU clobbers them. And it will not be of help at all to beat them again in the ACC title game.

FSU needed to play a high ranked VT in that ACC title game, but Duke ruined that.

(10-28-2013 11:54 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-28-2013 11:35 AM)bullet Wrote:  This is just one computer poll-Sagarin, but it gives a good indication of the trends (note, I'm getting this from another board). Based on this Oregon easily outdistances FSU and Baylor blows by Ohio St. and
AVERAGE - 104.1

Good information. Essentially what this shows is that FSU's best chance to pass Oregon is for Oregon to get tripped up by their tougher schedule and suffer a loss.

I expect that 2 or less of the 6 major unbeaten ends up with a perfect record. That's the pattern most seasons. So FSU has a very good chance if they take care of their own business. I'm not sure who will beat Alabama, but sooner or later the SEC is going to run out of luck and their top team is going to lose late and knock themselves out of contention instead of other conferences doing that and the SEC benefitting. They're really had an incredible string of luck in that regard.

(10-28-2013 12:03 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-28-2013 11:53 AM)JRsec Wrote:  [quote='bullet' pid='9919064' dateline='1382978129']
This is just one computer poll-Sagarin, but i

The weekend is setting up to benefit the Seminoles the most. I may get some hate for saying this but Miami is worst team in the top 15 let alone the top 10 and the top 15 has several suspect teams. They beat a terrible Florida team that outplayed them minus the turnovers, and barely escaped North Carolina and Wake Forest. I think F.S.U. exposes them this weekend and that only helps F.S.U.

This weekend will benefit FSU the most, but not nearly as much as they need it to to catch Oregon. Miami is already viewed as 'exposed' which is why FSU is a three TD favorite. Their high rank is strictly pro-forma at this point for being a major unbeaten, but they are already regarded as a paper tiger. So it will not be viewed as a big deal when FSU clobbers them. And it will not be of help at all to beat them again in the ACC title game.

FSU needed to play a high ranked VT in that ACC title game, but Duke ruined that.

No they don't. FSU just needs to play a highly ranked team period. Even if it's a rematch with an 11-1 Miami that will most likely be top 10, it will mean something.

where we need to look is in 2 weeks. After that- FSU will have played Miami, Alabama LSU, and Oregon Stanford(and actually Baylor with Oklahoma). We'll have a lot clearer indication of the computers at that point...

Although- from that point on-
Alabama- 53 Miss St, 130 Chatanooga, 21 Auburn- avg of 68
Oregon- 39 Utah 30 Arizona 34 Oregon St- avg of 34.3
FSU- 77 Syracuse, 169 Idaho, 23 Florida- avg of 89.7
Ohio St-79 Illinois, 49 Indiana, 35 Michigan- avg 54.3
Baylor- 25 Texas Tech, 16 Okla St, 43 TCU, 22 Texas- avg 26.5

Now the top 4 teams all have a CCG. The problem for FSU is they could play #1 team, and their remaining 4 game avg would be 67.5 or worse than any of the other 5 teams.

(10-28-2013 12:01 PM)TomThumb Wrote:  Re: Baylor

The B12 this year is going to suffer what the PAC suffered for many years. A 10 team conference playing a 9 game round robin means there are more loses to go around.

Take a look at Baylor's remaining schedule. They play OSU(ranked with 1 loss) on November 23rd. However, before that matchup, OSU has to play TT and Texas. If OSU wins those before the Baylor game, that means 2 of the teams on Baylor's schedule suffer another loss before Baylor gets to play them. And OSU still has to play Oklahoma. They could easily lose all 3 of those games and the Baylor game making them a 7-5 team at the end of a season that doesn't help Baylor's SOS much at all.

Texas still has to play TT and OSU.
OSU has to play TT, Texas, and OU.
TT has to play OSU and Texas.

It's possible that Baylor beats all 3 and all of them end up unranked or barely ranked at the end of the season because of loses they've inflicted on each other.

It's also possible that all 3 teams roll into the Baylor game as strong as ever, and Baylor still beats them and goes on to play for all the marbles, because all the other teams tripped up along the way. You just can't tell. There's a lot of variables remaining in the season...

(10-28-2013 01:10 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  It's also possible that all 3 teams roll into the Baylor game as strong as ever, and Baylor still beats them and goes on to play for all the marbles, because all the other teams tripped up along the way. You just can't tell. There's a lot of variables remaining in the season...

Well, my point was that they can't all match up against Baylor when they're as strong as ever. In order for OSU to face Baylor with only 1 loss, they'll have had to have beaten TT and Texas.

By a quirk of scheduling, none of Baylor/TT/OSU/Texas have played each other yet. That's 6 losses that has to be spread amongst 4 teams.

I love all these UNC conference fans.

Absolutely pathetic.

(10-28-2013 01:19 PM)TomThumb Wrote:  

(10-28-2013 01:10 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  It's also possible that all 3 teams roll into the Baylor game as strong as ever, and Baylor still beats them and goes on to play for all the marbles, because all the other teams tripped up along the way. You just can't tell. There's a lot of variables remaining in the season...

Well, my point was that they can't all match up against Baylor when they're as strong as ever. In order for OSU to face Baylor with only 1 loss, they'll have had to have beaten TT and Texas.

By a quirk of scheduling, none of Baylor/TT/OSU/Texas have played each other yet. That's 6 losses that has to be spread amongst 4 teams.

Having 4 ranked teams playing each other doesn't mean they'll drop like a stone in the polls, unless it's clear that one or more of them is a pretender. I don't think that's the case...

Do people really think it's better to guess who the top 2 teams are (or 4 teams) instead of having the top 8 play each other?

(10-28-2013 04:04 PM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  I love all these UNC conference fans.

Absolutely pathetic.

Explain.....

10 conference champs, 10 team play off. Let it be decided on the field, not in the polls. Problem solved.

(10-28-2013 06:24 PM)perimeterpost Wrote:  10 conference champs, 10 team play off. Let it be decided on the field, not in the polls. Problem solved.

Never happening. You're not getting in FIU at the expense of say, LSU.

(10-28-2013 12:40 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(10-28-2013 12:03 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-28-2013 11:53 AM)JRsec Wrote:  [quote='bullet' pid='9919064' dateline='1382978129']
This is just one computer poll-Sagarin, but i

The weekend is setting up to benefit the Seminoles the most. I may get some hate for saying this but Miami is worst team in the top 15 let alone the top 10 and the top 15 has several suspect teams. They beat a terrible Florida team that outplayed them minus the turnovers, and barely escaped North Carolina and Wake Forest. I think F.S.U. exposes them this weekend and that only helps F.S.U.

This weekend will benefit FSU the most, but not nearly as much as they need it to to catch Oregon. Miami is already viewed as 'exposed' which is why FSU is a three TD favorite. Their high rank is strictly pro-forma at this point for being a major unbeaten, but they are already regarded as a paper tiger. So it will not be viewed as a big deal when FSU clobbers them. And it will not be of help at all to beat them again in the ACC title game.

FSU needed to play a high ranked VT in that ACC title game, but Duke ruined that.

No they don't. FSU just needs to play a highly ranked team period. Even if it's a rematch with an 11-1 Miami that will most likely be top 10, it will mean something.

You seem to lack appreciation for the hole FSU is in. In a 100 meter race, they are starting 10 yards behind, clearly behind in the polls and computers. Beating Miami might make up 4-5 yards of that, at most, and after that, the whole schedule favors Oregon pretty clearly.

And at the end of the season, no pollster will be impressed by FSU beating a Miami team in the ACC title game they already beat up on.

Look at what happened to VT: Last week, they were #15. This week, they lose a close one to a Duke team that isn't all that bad and they drop like a stone, clear out of the polls. The same thing will happen to Miami. When FSU beats them 45 - 7, they will fall to #20. Nobody is giving them respect, so FSU won't get respect for beating them.

Personally, I don't think Oregon will win out but if they do then there is no way that FSU is going to be able to pass them in the standings. I do think FSU is the better team but unfortunately the rankings are more complicated than simply being the result of my sole opinion.

(10-28-2013 06:36 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-28-2013 12:40 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(10-28-2013 12:03 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-28-2013 11:53 AM)JRsec Wrote:  [quote='bullet' pid='9919064' dateline='1382978129']
This is just one computer poll-Sagarin, but i

The weekend is setting up to benefit the Seminoles the most. I may get some hate for saying this but Miami is worst team in the top 15 let alone the top 10 and the top 15 has several suspect teams. They beat a terrible Florida team that outplayed them minus the turnovers, and barely escaped North Carolina and Wake Forest. I think F.S.U. exposes them this weekend and that only helps F.S.U.

This weekend will benefit FSU the most, but not nearly as much as they need it to to catch Oregon. Miami is already viewed as 'exposed' which is why FSU is a three TD favorite. Their high rank is strictly pro-forma at this point for being a major unbeaten, but they are already regarded as a paper tiger. So it will not be viewed as a big deal when FSU clobbers them. And it will not be of help at all to beat them again in the ACC title game.

FSU needed to play a high ranked VT in that ACC title game, but Duke ruined that.

No they don't. FSU just needs to play a highly ranked team period. Even if it's a rematch with an 11-1 Miami that will most likely be top 10, it will mean something.

You seem to lack appreciation for the hole FSU is in. In a 100 meter race, they are starting 10 yards behind, clearly behind in the polls and computers. Beating Miami might make up 4-5 yards of that, at most, and after that, the whole schedule favors Oregon pretty clearly.

And at the end of the season, no pollster will be impressed by FSU beating a Miami team in the ACC title game they already beat up on.

Look at what happened to VT: Last week, they were #15. This week, they lose a close one to a Duke team that isn't all that bad and they drop like a stone, clear out of the polls. The same thing will happen to Miami. When FSU beats them 45 - 7, they will fall to #20. Nobody is giving them respect, so FSU won't get respect for beating them.

As long as Miami keeps winning it will work itself out. Your use case is Georgia last year. They lose 35-7 to South Carolina then came within 5 yards of playing for the national title.

And just so you realize, Oregon could also be inline for a rematch if it's UCLA or Arizona. The difference is those teams may be 8-4 and barely in the top 25 while Miami may be 11-1 and ranked near the top 10. There's always a bonus for that.

Finally, you guys keep ignoring the potential bump Clemson and Florida can give FSU. Even if Florida is 6-5 going into the FSU game, winning on the road against an SEC team is a bump. It will be even more impressive if FSU destroys them. Florida doesn't lose in the swamp often even in subpar years. Then there's Clemson. You don't think if Clemson wins on the road against a team that may be playing for the SEC championship gives the Seminoles a bump?

The fact is this thing is far from over and can go either way.

Odds are very slim that there will be a 8-4 champion to play Oregon. You know that but want to ignore that. Typical for ACC/UNC fan boy.

You want to completely ignore what Idaho is going to do to FSU's rating. It's dismal.

Getting something from Clemson now is so minimal compared to the teams you're adding. instead of 1 extra result, you're adding 8-11 extra results.

bottom line- no BCS expert thinks FSU has a chance short of Oregon(or Alabama) losing.

(10-28-2013 06:41 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  Personally, I don't think Oregon will win out but if they do then there is no way that FSU is going to be able to pass them in the standings. I do think FSU is the better team but unfortunately the rankings are more complicated than simply being the result of my sole opinion.

That's a good point: I am not saying Oregon is better than FSU. I am just trying to explain how the standings are going to shake out. As we all know, the BCS is about as imperfect a system as imaginable for determining the two best and most-worthy teams.

If forced to bet my life on an Oregon-FSU game, I'd flip a coin because to me it's a pick 'em game. But the logic of the BCS clearly favors Oregon getting a title game bid.

(10-28-2013 07:06 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(10-28-2013 06:36 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-28-2013 12:40 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(10-28-2013 12:03 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-28-2013 11:53 AM)JRsec Wrote:  [quote='bullet' pid='9919064' dateline='1382978129']
This is just one computer poll-Sagarin, but i

The weekend is setting up to benefit the Seminoles the most. I may get some hate for saying this but Miami is worst team in the top 15 let alone the top 10 and the top 15 has several suspect teams. They beat a terrible Florida team that outplayed them minus the turnovers, and barely escaped North Carolina and Wake Forest. I think F.S.U. exposes them this weekend and that only helps F.S.U.

This weekend will benefit FSU the most, but not nearly as much as they need it to to catch Oregon. Miami is already viewed as 'exposed' which is why FSU is a three TD favorite. Their high rank is strictly pro-forma at this point for being a major unbeaten, but they are already regarded as a paper tiger. So it will not be viewed as a big deal when FSU clobbers them. And it will not be of help at all to beat them again in the ACC title game.

FSU needed to play a high ranked VT in that ACC title game, but Duke ruined that.

No they don't. FSU just needs to play a highly ranked team period. Even if it's a rematch with an 11-1 Miami that will most likely be top 10, it will mean something.

You seem to lack appreciation for the hole FSU is in. In a 100 meter race, they are starting 10 yards behind, clearly behind in the polls and computers. Beating Miami might make up 4-5 yards of that, at most, and after that, the whole schedule favors Oregon pretty clearly.

And at the end of the season, no pollster will be impressed by FSU beating a Miami team in the ACC title game they already beat up on.

Look at what happened to VT: Last week, they were #15. This week, they lose a close one to a Duke team that isn't all that bad and they drop like a stone, clear out of the polls. The same thing will happen to Miami. When FSU beats them 45 - 7, they will fall to #20. Nobody is giving them respect, so FSU won't get respect for beating them.

As long as Miami keeps winning it will work itself out. Your use case is Georgia last year. They lose 35-7 to South Carolina then came within 5 yards of playing for the national title.

Georgia was respected. They are an SEC power at a time when everyone thinks the SEC is the sh*t. Despite getting killed by SC, Georgia began the BCS rankings at #11, then moved up to #6 when they beat #2 Florida.

In contrast, Miami will only move in to the BCS top 5 if they beat FSU, and if they beat FSU, FSU is obviously out of the title race. If Miami loses to FSU, they will fall clean out of the top 15, as nobody respects them. And unlike Georgia, who started at #11 and had a big game versus #2 Florida to boost them up, Miami has no such game with a high ranked team that would allow them to rebound from a loss to FSU.

So if Miami loses to FSU, they can beat up all the remaining unranked ACC teams on their schedule before the ACC title game, and they won't be anywhere near the top 10. So no boost for FSU in a re-match. True, Oregon may also face a re-match in their PAC title game that will not boost them, but since they are and will be ahead of FSU, they don't need the boost.