Insider article. Author used a computer model and ran 10,000 simulations.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-...basketball

Yes I know these rankings don't meant much, other than off season discussion. Probably not a surprise the MAC didn't fare well...

98 Akron
115 Ohio
143 Kent St.
150 Western Michigan
161 Toledo
181 Buffalo
207 Miami (OH)
209 Eastern Michigan
222 Bowling Green
235 Central Michigan
296 Ball State
304 Northern Illinois

(10-26-2013 06:23 PM)Eagle66 Wrote:  Insider article. Author used a computer model and ran 10,000 simulations.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-...basketball

Yes I know these rankings don't meant much, other than off season discussion. Probably not a surprise the MAC didn't fare well...

98 Akron
115 Ohio
143 Kent St.
150 Western Michigan
161 Toledo
181 Buffalo
207 Miami (OH)
209 Eastern Michigan
222 Bowling Green
235 Central Michigan
296 Ball State
304 Northern Illinois

Looks to me like a typical MAC basketball season. A team (maybe 2) in the Top 100, a handful in the 100-200 range, and the rest stink. The only thing we don't know now is who falls where.

#304

They probably have us overrated. My realistic goal is for Miami to get a first round home game. Like everyone else, if all our ifs turn out positive, we could really compete and surprise, if they all turn out negative, we will be back in last place.

I would say that is a good assessment for NIU, from a preseason standpoint.

(10-26-2013 06:23 PM)Eagle66 Wrote:  Insider article. Author used a computer model and ran 10,000 simulations.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-...basketball

Got to love, actually not, these kind of things.

Computer simulations make something sound 'scientific', authentic, etc. but in college sports aren't most teams about 1/4 or 1/3 new personnel each year?

Reminds me of Nate Silver of N.Y. Times fame:

As I understand it, his record of picking the results of the 51 elections for president (50 states + D.C.) + 33 or 34 senators for 2008 and 2012 was nothing short of phenomenal. I believe he didn't miss a single presidential contest at the state level and missed one senate race. Nate is the marvel at taking the myriad of polls and aggregating them and working out probabilities of a candidate winning each state.

Then on to sports, not so good.

Try picking 10 college games each Saturday vs. the spread and it is basically almost chance level.

Or trying picking the winners of the ALCS and NLCS and WS on Sept 1.

I was in Vegas and BOS and ST. L. were 7 and 8:1 to win the WS.

I didn't pick them...

i'd be alright with this as it would mean we would have a bye in the tournament to the semi-finals. in a rebuilding/reloading year, I think that would be a great accomplishment.

I think we're overrated.

I don't know how good the Flashes will be for a while, but with our head coach channeling Jackie Moon, at least we'll have some fun.

Yikes.....

Those warm-ups make you like like mall cops. Or astronauts. One or the other.

I thought we would be in the 350's, so I am pumped. My apologies from bringing down the MAC. We will either suck real bad again or showed marked improvement if all the transfers mesh. There is finally some size and talent there.

^

Saturday December 14th, NIU @ UMass 3pm on NBC Sports Network nationally. Don't forget to watch.

The question is who scores more, NIU football vs UMass this weekend or NIU basketball vs UMass on Dec 14th?

That's actually a tough question.

(10-26-2013 06:23 PM)Eagle66 Wrote:  Insider article. Author used a computer model and ran 10,000 simulations.

http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-...basketball

Yes I know these rankings don't meant much, other than off season discussion. Probably not a surprise the MAC didn't fare well...

98 Akron
115 Ohio
143 Kent St.
150 Western Michigan
161 Toledo
181 Buffalo
207 Miami (OH)
209 Eastern Michigan
222 Bowling Green
235 Central Michigan
296 Ball State
304 Northern Illinois

Looks to me as if the guy wasted a lot of perfectly good CPU time for naught as regards the MAC. He could have just taken the final 2012-2013 Sagarin ratings and shaved a few points off the top teams in the MAC and come up with the almost the same ranking with a lot less trouble (tic--sort of).