I am going to give a disclaimer here and just come out and say I realize this might be way way way out there, but does anyone feel like there is something fishy with the point spreads this week. SDSU is not absolutely horrid but IMO there is no way in heck that spread should only be 7-8 points, it should be closer to 14-16. Also I was looking at NIU's spread of 31 vs EMU and thinking that seems really inflated to what I would think. I know trying to say there is some conspiracy theory is kind of crazy but does anyone get an impression that these lines have been adjusted to give the sense Fresno takes care of its business easy?

The spread is always about getting even money on both sides. Often it is not about what they actually think the outcome will be.

(10-25-2013 10:27 PM)RedShark27 Wrote:  The spread is always about getting even money on both sides. Often it is not about what they actually think the outcome will be.

Is it crazy to think there is a lot of money thrown at SDSU and NIU by those who have a vested interest?

(10-25-2013 10:24 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  I am going to give a disclaimer here and just come out and say I realize this might be way way way out there, but does anyone feel like there is something fishy with the point spreads this week. SDSU is not absolutely horrid but IMO there is no way in heck that spread should only be 7-8 points, it should be closer to 14-16. Also I was looking at NIU's spread of 31 vs EMU and thinking that seems really inflated to what I would think. I know trying to say there is some conspiracy theory is kind of crazy but does anyone get an impression that these lines have been adjusted to give the sense Fresno takes care of its business easy?

MD... you gotta get laid dude... it's Friday night.

(10-25-2013 10:24 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  I am going to give a disclaimer here and just come out and say I realize this might be way way way out there, but does anyone feel like there is something fishy with the point spreads this week. SDSU is not absolutely horrid but IMO there is no way in heck that spread should only be 7-8 points, it should be closer to 14-16. Also I was looking at NIU's spread of 31 vs EMU and thinking that seems really inflated to what I would think. I know trying to say there is some conspiracy theory is kind of crazy but does anyone get an impression that these lines have been adjusted to give the sense Fresno takes care of its business easy?

No. Vegas's goal is to make money. They want half the bets on one side, half on the other. They don't give one **** about bcs bowls. Do you even think about what you post before you post? Seriously, why does everything have to be an anti NIU conspiracy with you? It may be time for another self-imposed message board break for you.

(10-25-2013 10:30 PM)niusfactuary Wrote:  

(10-25-2013 10:24 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  I am going to give a disclaimer here and just come out and say I realize this might be way way way out there, but does anyone feel like there is something fishy with the point spreads this week. SDSU is not absolutely horrid but IMO there is no way in heck that spread should only be 7-8 points, it should be closer to 14-16. Also I was looking at NIU's spread of 31 vs EMU and thinking that seems really inflated to what I would think. I know trying to say there is some conspiracy theory is kind of crazy but does anyone get an impression that these lines have been adjusted to give the sense Fresno takes care of its business easy?

No. Vegas's goal is to make money. They want half the bets on one side, half on the other. They don't give one **** about bcs bowls. Do you even think about what you post before you post? Seriously, why does everything have to be an anti NIU conspiracy with you? It may be time for another self-imposed message board break for you.

What Im saying is could you have Fresno boosters putting high amounts of money of SDSU and NIU to inflate the lines, is that possible? It just seems so out of whack this week, NIU should not be 31 point favorites probably more like 25, and Fresno should be about 16 point favorites , not 7 point favorites. I wish I could see the action on those two games

The Fresno/SDSU spread actually opened at 9 1/2 and has been bet down to 7 1/2, which would represent a good chunk of money being wagered on the Aztecs early. The bookies then needed to lower the spread to entice gamblers to lay the lower spread with Fresno to even out their book. An even book guarantees a profit of 10% on all losing wagers. Money wagered and NOTHING else determines where the line ends up.

(10-25-2013 10:38 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  What Im saying is could you have Fresno boosters putting high amounts of money of SDSU and NIU to inflate the lines, is that possible? It just seems so out of whack this week, NIU should not be 31 point favorites probably more like 25, and Fresno should be about 16 point favorites , not 7 point favorites. I wish I could see the action on those two games

I mean I can't even...I just...WHAT.

(10-25-2013 10:38 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(10-25-2013 10:30 PM)niusfactuary Wrote:  

(10-25-2013 10:24 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  I am going to give a disclaimer here and just come out and say I realize this might be way way way out there, but does anyone feel like there is something fishy with the point spreads this week. SDSU is not absolutely horrid but IMO there is no way in heck that spread should only be 7-8 points, it should be closer to 14-16. Also I was looking at NIU's spread of 31 vs EMU and thinking that seems really inflated to what I would think. I know trying to say there is some conspiracy theory is kind of crazy but does anyone get an impression that these lines have been adjusted to give the sense Fresno takes care of its business easy?

No. Vegas's goal is to make money. They want half the bets on one side, half on the other. They don't give one **** about bcs bowls. Do you even think about what you post before you post? Seriously, why does everything have to be an anti NIU conspiracy with you? It may be time for another self-imposed message board break for you.

What Im saying is could you have Fresno boosters putting high amounts of money of SDSU and NIU to inflate the lines, is that possible? It just seems so out of whack this week, NIU should not be 31 point favorites probably more like 25, and Fresno should be about 16 point favorites , not 7 point favorites. I wish I could see the action on those two games

Please stop. You're embarrassing yourself.

(10-25-2013 10:38 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(10-25-2013 10:30 PM)niusfactuary Wrote:  

(10-25-2013 10:24 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  I am going to give a disclaimer here and just come out and say I realize this might be way way way out there, but does anyone feel like there is something fishy with the point spreads this week. SDSU is not absolutely horrid but IMO there is no way in heck that spread should only be 7-8 points, it should be closer to 14-16. Also I was looking at NIU's spread of 31 vs EMU and thinking that seems really inflated to what I would think. I know trying to say there is some conspiracy theory is kind of crazy but does anyone get an impression that these lines have been adjusted to give the sense Fresno takes care of its business easy?

No. Vegas's goal is to make money. They want half the bets on one side, half on the other. They don't give one **** about bcs bowls. Do you even think about what you post before you post? Seriously, why does everything have to be an anti NIU conspiracy with you? It may be time for another self-imposed message board break for you.

What Im saying is could you have Fresno boosters putting high amounts of money of SDSU and NIU to inflate the lines, is that possible? It just seems so out of whack this week, NIU should not be 31 point favorites probably more like 25, and Fresno should be about 16 point favorites , not 7 point favorites. I wish I could see the action on those two games

Please explain what the motivation would be for "Fresno boosters" to wager very large amounts on SDSU and NIU? Are you suggesting the human voters take into account whether a team covered their spread when deciding how to vote/rank teams?

(10-25-2013 10:45 PM)niusfactuary Wrote:  

(10-25-2013 10:38 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(10-25-2013 10:30 PM)niusfactuary Wrote:  

(10-25-2013 10:24 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  I am going to give a disclaimer here and just come out and say I realize this might be way way way out there, but does anyone feel like there is something fishy with the point spreads this week. SDSU is not absolutely horrid but IMO there is no way in heck that spread should only be 7-8 points, it should be closer to 14-16. Also I was looking at NIU's spread of 31 vs EMU and thinking that seems really inflated to what I would think. I know trying to say there is some conspiracy theory is kind of crazy but does anyone get an impression that these lines have been adjusted to give the sense Fresno takes care of its business easy?

No. Vegas's goal is to make money. They want half the bets on one side, half on the other. They don't give one **** about bcs bowls. Do you even think about what you post before you post? Seriously, why does everything have to be an anti NIU conspiracy with you? It may be time for another self-imposed message board break for you.

What Im saying is could you have Fresno boosters putting high amounts of money of SDSU and NIU to inflate the lines, is that possible? It just seems so out of whack this week, NIU should not be 31 point favorites probably more like 25, and Fresno should be about 16 point favorites , not 7 point favorites. I wish I could see the action on those two games

Please stop. You're embarrassing yourself.

Actually I've changed my mind. This is so stupid it's comical. Keep going.

Two things are happening here.
1. This conversation is so silly there is not point.
2. Or I have had to much Crown tonight and need to go to bed....

Both?

I mean, he did have a disclaimer.....

(10-25-2013 10:46 PM)Field Turf Wrote:  

(10-25-2013 10:38 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(10-25-2013 10:30 PM)niusfactuary Wrote:  

(10-25-2013 10:24 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  I am going to give a disclaimer here and just come out and say I realize this might be way way way out there, but does anyone feel like there is something fishy with the point spreads this week. SDSU is not absolutely horrid but IMO there is no way in heck that spread should only be 7-8 points, it should be closer to 14-16. Also I was looking at NIU's spread of 31 vs EMU and thinking that seems really inflated to what I would think. I know trying to say there is some conspiracy theory is kind of crazy but does anyone get an impression that these lines have been adjusted to give the sense Fresno takes care of its business easy?

No. Vegas's goal is to make money. They want half the bets on one side, half on the other. They don't give one **** about bcs bowls. Do you even think about what you post before you post? Seriously, why does everything have to be an anti NIU conspiracy with you? It may be time for another self-imposed message board break for you.

What Im saying is could you have Fresno boosters putting high amounts of money of SDSU and NIU to inflate the lines, is that possible? It just seems so out of whack this week, NIU should not be 31 point favorites probably more like 25, and Fresno should be about 16 point favorites , not 7 point favorites. I wish I could see the action on those two games

Please explain what the motivation would be for "Fresno boosters" to wager very large amounts on SDSU and NIU? Are you suggesting the human voters take into account whether a team covered their spread when deciding how to vote/rank teams?

I probably did cross the line of sanity on this one, I understood that going in. But yes, I think the typical human could say hey this team covered, they are meeting or exceeding expectations. Well as crazy as it sounds don't you think that kind of movement in the line in the Fresno game is a bit large. It seems so paranoid and far fetched, but it would not shock me for a moment.

The lines seem close to what I expected. We will only know after the games for sanity check. I expect NIU to cover the line, and then some. Go SDSU

(10-25-2013 10:41 PM)Field Turf Wrote:  The Fresno/SDSU spread actually opened at 9 1/2 and has been bet down to 7 1/2, which would represent a good chunk of money being wagered on the Aztecs early. The bookies then needed to lower the spread to entice gamblers to lay the lower spread with Fresno to even out their book. An even book guarantees a profit of 10% on all losing wagers. Money wagered and NOTHING else determines where the line ends up.

You are so right on this. 99% of the public have no clue why a line moves up or down.

(10-25-2013 11:00 PM)NIU75 Wrote:  

(10-25-2013 10:41 PM)Field Turf Wrote:  The Fresno/SDSU spread actually opened at 9 1/2 and has been bet down to 7 1/2, which would represent a good chunk of money being wagered on the Aztecs early. The bookies then needed to lower the spread to entice gamblers to lay the lower spread with Fresno to even out their book. An even book guarantees a profit of 10% on all losing wagers. Money wagered and NOTHING else determines where the line ends up.

You are so right on this. 99% of the public have no clue why a line moves up or down.

Or moreover, abnormal betting to SDSU and NIU to inflate the lines to create perceived conference strength and SOS differences in the minds of people.

(10-25-2013 11:04 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Or moreover, abnormal betting to SDSU and NIU to inflate the lines to create perceived conference strength and SOS differences in the minds of people.

So you think Fresno boosters are willing to throw away hundreds of thousands of dollars in the hope that an insignificant change in perception somehow pushes their team into the BCS?

(10-25-2013 11:06 PM)UIHuskie Wrote:  

(10-25-2013 11:04 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Or moreover, abnormal betting to SDSU and NIU to inflate the lines to create perceived conference strength and SOS differences in the minds of people.

So you think Fresno boosters are willing to throw away hundreds of thousands of dollars in the hope that an insignificant change in perception somehow pushes their team into the BCS?

When millions are on the line I think its entirely possible. Likely, no, but not something that would shock me if it were true.

(10-25-2013 11:09 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(10-25-2013 11:06 PM)UIHuskie Wrote:  

(10-25-2013 11:04 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Or moreover, abnormal betting to SDSU and NIU to inflate the lines to create perceived conference strength and SOS differences in the minds of people.

So you think Fresno boosters are willing to throw away hundreds of thousands of dollars in the hope that an insignificant change in perception somehow pushes their team into the BCS?

When millions are on the line I think its entirely possible. Likely, no, but not something that would shock me if it were true.

Well then they're terrible at this because Fresno is 1-5 against the spread this year.

http://www.predictem.com/cfb/ats-records.php