Getting this year's off-season thread started now that Red Sox-Cardinals World Series is set (I'm rooting for Boston, myself, but it's two very good teams.)

Seeing rumors Braves are kicking the tires on the Reds' Brandon Phillips for a swap of contracts with the infamous Dan Uggla.

Phillips has 4 years and $50 million left on his contract, Uggla has 2 years and $25 million left.

Braves also have the hot hitting and fast moving Tommy LaStella, a 5"11 2B prospect currently in AFL and played last year mostly at Double-A Mississippi where he hit around .340. He doesn't strike out much, has decent defense, and compared to Uggla he's already an All-Star.

Phillips has been getting bad press as a "bad teammate.", although he has clearly been far, far superior to Uggla, the hitless wonder.

Thoughts on this and other offseason stuff from your team(s)??

Man I think that would be a horrible decision. Is Phillips better than Uggla at this exact moment in time? Yes, he makes far more consistent contact and he's clearly a better fielder. That being said, his OPS+ and OPS were 92 and .706 respectively, to Uggla's 83 and .671, so not much difference. Although baseball reference puts their 2012 WAR at 1.6 and -1.3, so that's a big difference. It comes down to this: Phillips is clearly regressing as his OPS+ the last 3 years was: 118, 99, 92. Are you willing to pay 4/50 for a guy who at ages 33-36 will probably put up OPS+ numbers in the 80s? I know you're desperate to get rid of Uggla, but I think you'd be better off designating him for assignment and picking up someone off the scrap heap (like a pete kozma type). One thing Phillips has shown extreme aptitude for, is hit with RISP. He's consistently hit over .300 in those situations while with the Reds. On a team that has Heyward, Upton and Freeman getting on base a decent amount, Phillips could be a big help. So I guess I'm kind of torn. If he continues to hit with RISP then he's useful, but if he regresses in that aspect of the game then he's nothing

I know I said a lot of the same things about Chris Johnson, but his OPS+ was only under 100 in one season.

I think a major thing this winter is going to be the manager searches. Nats, Reds already- and now the news that Leyland isn't returning to the Tigers. 3 of the top 11-12 teams in the league with openings.

(10-20-2013 04:39 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  Man I think that would be a horrible decision. Is Phillips better than Uggla at this exact moment in time? Yes, he makes far more consistent contact and he's clearly a better fielder. That being said, his OPS+ and OPS were 92 and .706 respectively, to Uggla's 83 and .671, so not much difference. Although baseball reference puts their 2012 WAR at 1.6 and -1.3, so that's a big difference. It comes down to this: Phillips is clearly regressing as his OPS+ the last 3 years was: 118, 99, 92. Are you willing to pay 4/50 for a guy who at ages 33-36 will probably put up OPS+ numbers in the 80s? I know you're desperate to get rid of Uggla, but I think you'd be better off designating him for assignment and picking up someone off the scrap heap (like a pete kozma type). One thing Phillips has shown extreme aptitude for, is hit with RISP. He's consistently hit over .300 in those situations while with the Reds. On a team that has Heyward, Upton and Freeman getting on base a decent amount, Phillips could be a big help. So I guess I'm kind of torn. If he continues to hit with RISP then he's useful, but if he regresses in that aspect of the game then he's nothing

I know I said a lot of the same things about Chris Johnson, but his OPS+ was only under 100 in one season.

Thanks for the info, swoosh. I agree. While I was exited to see the Braves see to be actively looking for ways to trade Uggla and improve at 2B next year, I mentioned LaStella specifically becuase I think we have a good in-house solution already (and much cheaper than Phillip[s, obviously.) I'd rather release Uggla and eat his contract, then go with a hopefully healed and re-signed Ramirio Pena and Ty Patornicky as a brigde to give LaStella a year at AAA.

I'd like to get rid of BJ too, but, well, that's not gonna happen now is it?

How are things looking this offseason for the Giants? I hear Lincecum at least wants to test the FA market first.

(10-21-2013 12:51 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  

(10-20-2013 04:39 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  Man I think that would be a horrible decision. Is Phillips better than Uggla at this exact moment in time? Yes, he makes far more consistent contact and he's clearly a better fielder. That being said, his OPS+ and OPS were 92 and .706 respectively, to Uggla's 83 and .671, so not much difference. Although baseball reference puts their 2012 WAR at 1.6 and -1.3, so that's a big difference. It comes down to this: Phillips is clearly regressing as his OPS+ the last 3 years was: 118, 99, 92. Are you willing to pay 4/50 for a guy who at ages 33-36 will probably put up OPS+ numbers in the 80s? I know you're desperate to get rid of Uggla, but I think you'd be better off designating him for assignment and picking up someone off the scrap heap (like a pete kozma type). One thing Phillips has shown extreme aptitude for, is hit with RISP. He's consistently hit over .300 in those situations while with the Reds. On a team that has Heyward, Upton and Freeman getting on base a decent amount, Phillips could be a big help. So I guess I'm kind of torn. If he continues to hit with RISP then he's useful, but if he regresses in that aspect of the game then he's nothing

I know I said a lot of the same things about Chris Johnson, but his OPS+ was only under 100 in one season.

Thanks for the info, swoosh. I agree. While I was exited to see the Braves see to be actively looking for ways to trade Uggla and improve at 2B next year, I mentioned LaStella specifically becuase I think we have a good in-house solution already (and much cheaper than Phillip[s, obviously.) I'd rather release Uggla and eat his contract, then go with a hopefully healed and re-signed Ramirio Pena and Ty Patornicky as a brigde to give LaStella a year at AAA.

I'd like to get rid of BJ too, but, well, that's not gonna happen now is it?

How are things looking this offseason for the Giants? I hear Lincecum at least wants to test the FA market first.

Yeah the Braves definitely have the benefit of being able to plan long term as their core is very young: Minor, teheran, Kimbrel, Heyward, upton, freeman, Gattis, Simmons, beachy, Medlen. So rather than plugging holes with long term financial ramifications, they should be filling those spots with low cost alternatives until a guy like LaStella is ready. For example, Kelly Johnson had a .715 OPS and a 99 OPS+, both better than Phillips and the Rays only had to pay him $2.5 million. If the Braves didn't have a limited payroll I'd say Phillips makes sense because they can afford to overpay for good defense. However we don't live in that world and with BJ already eating nearly 15% of the payroll (2013), I'd say they need to be careful about adding another mediocre player with a yearly AAV in the double digits.

As for the Giants, they definitely want Lincecum back, but for now they aren't willing to go beyond 2 years, which is the right move. We have around 10 legitimate pitching prospects (between #2's and #5's) in High-A and AA, so I have to imagine some of them will be ready to open the 2015-2016 seasons. Thus Timmy would only be useful through 2015. The giants will offer him a one year tender, so if he gets a contract elsewhere the Giants will get a compensatory pick.

Other than Lincecum the only question mark is Javier Lopez. I know the Giants would love to have him back, but it's all going to depend on the years and the amount. He's one of the best in the game at what he does, but on a non-contending team he doesn't have much value. His value lies in situational pitching which really only offers big time value in the postseason. If ownership believes we can make it back to the postseason next year then they should bring him back. Otherwise he isn't worth the investment

For reference, here's LaStella's numbers so far in the Arizona Fall League:
8-20, 4 doubles and a ridiculous 10 walks with 0 Ks

Our top catching prospect, Andrew Susac, is also on the team. He's 7-18, with one HR, 5 Walks and 5 Ks. Not as good as your boy, but still good

(10-21-2013 10:28 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  For reference, here's LaStella's numbers so far in the Arizona Fall League:
8-20, 4 doubles and a ridiculous 10 walks with 0 Ks

Our top catching prospect, Andrew Susac, is also on the team. He's 7-18, with one HR, 5 Walks and 5 Ks. Not as good as your boy, but still good

Always fun to watch the next wave of youngsters coming up. I'm hopeful Braves can properly handle LaStella and install him at 2B even if it means another half-season of Uggla. We survived him this year, after all.

Will Susac be groomed to backup Posey, I guess?

(10-22-2013 12:50 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  

(10-21-2013 10:28 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  For reference, here's LaStella's numbers so far in the Arizona Fall League:
8-20, 4 doubles and a ridiculous 10 walks with 0 Ks

Our top catching prospect, Andrew Susac, is also on the team. He's 7-18, with one HR, 5 Walks and 5 Ks. Not as good as your boy, but still good

Always fun to watch the next wave of youngsters coming up. I'm hopeful Braves can properly handle LaStella and install him at 2B even if it means another half-season of Uggla. We survived him this year, after all.

Will Susac be groomed to backup Posey, I guess?

the hope amongst fans (don't know what management plans to do) is that Posey will be moved to 3rd when the fat slob who currently plays there leaves after the season, and susac becomes the starting catcher. Posey is too good of a hitter to catch every day. He played SS in college and should easily handle a move to 3B, as Joe Torre did many years ago

I'm beginning to think it's a matter of when, not if, to when Mattingly is let go from the Dodgers.

I just wonder with him if he's overrated. He's 260-225 in 3 years. That's fine. But, you take out that 42-8 stretch, he's 218-217. A bunch of meh.

when he leaves- would have 3/10 playoff managers gone, and 4/11 or 12 best teams in the league with new managers next year.

(10-22-2013 03:29 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I'm beginning to think it's a matter of when, not if, to when Mattingly is let go from the Dodgers.

I just wonder with him if he's overrated. He's 260-225 in 3 years. That's fine. But, you take out that 42-8 stretch, he's 218-217. A bunch of meh.

when he leaves- would have 3/10 playoff managers gone, and 4/11 or 12 best teams in the league with new managers next year.

i love how you're removing over 10% of his games in order to fit the conclusion.

Lincecum resigns with Giants for 2/35. Love the years, absolutely hate the amount. I realize i always say that in today's game it's not about the money and all about the years, but this is insane. $35 million for a guy who is barely a #4 starter. I think this is a combo of: A) Giants didn't like any of the available free agent starters B) They believe Timmy has a little bit of upside left C) Giants are freakin rolling in cash

(10-22-2013 06:14 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(10-22-2013 03:29 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I'm beginning to think it's a matter of when, not if, to when Mattingly is let go from the Dodgers.

I just wonder with him if he's overrated. He's 260-225 in 3 years. That's fine. But, you take out that 42-8 stretch, he's 218-217. A bunch of meh.

when he leaves- would have 3/10 playoff managers gone, and 4/11 or 12 best teams in the league with new managers next year.

i love how you're removing over 10% of his games in order to fit the conclusion.

I don't know what to think about him/Dodgers this year. I mean, you take out a 50 game stretch this year and they were only 50-62. They were 20-20 after the stretch to end the regular season and 5-5 in the playoffs. All I'm saying is that maybe he is a tad bit overrated given those numbers outside one 50 game stretch. Which one is more valid- what he's done in 50 games, or what he's done in 435 games?

(10-22-2013 06:37 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-22-2013 06:14 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(10-22-2013 03:29 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I'm beginning to think it's a matter of when, not if, to when Mattingly is let go from the Dodgers.

I just wonder with him if he's overrated. He's 260-225 in 3 years. That's fine. But, you take out that 42-8 stretch, he's 218-217. A bunch of meh.

when he leaves- would have 3/10 playoff managers gone, and 4/11 or 12 best teams in the league with new managers next year.

i love how you're removing over 10% of his games in order to fit the conclusion.

I don't know what to think about him/Dodgers this year. I mean, you take out a 50 game stretch this year and they were only 50-62. They were 20-20 after the stretch to end the regular season and 5-5 in the playoffs. All I'm saying is that maybe he is a tad bit overrated given those numbers outside one 50 game stretch. Which one is more valid- what he's done in 50 games, or what he's done in 435 games?

well he didn't have Greinke, Ryu or Puig until this season so that right there is 10 wins that were added this season. Not to mention added another 5 wins. My point is that Mattingly has only been the manager of the Dodgers (as they're currently constructed) for less than one season (Puig didn't open the season). not to mention he was a lame duck manager this year, meaning he had no real authority. We all know that in the world of coaching, one year contracts are a slap in the face.

(10-22-2013 06:37 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-22-2013 06:14 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(10-22-2013 03:29 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I'm beginning to think it's a matter of when, not if, to when Mattingly is let go from the Dodgers.

I just wonder with him if he's overrated. He's 260-225 in 3 years. That's fine. But, you take out that 42-8 stretch, he's 218-217. A bunch of meh.

when he leaves- would have 3/10 playoff managers gone, and 4/11 or 12 best teams in the league with new managers next year.

i love how you're removing over 10% of his games in order to fit the conclusion.

I don't know what to think about him/Dodgers this year. I mean, you take out a 50 game stretch this year and they were only 50-62. They were 20-20 after the stretch to end the regular season and 5-5 in the playoffs. All I'm saying is that maybe he is a tad bit overrated given those numbers outside one 50 game stretch. Which one is more valid- what he's done in 50 games, or what he's done in 435 games?

Curious, do you consider Bruce Bochy a good manager? In his career he's 1,530-1,530. Is Bochy a bunch of meh? Not saying he is or isn't. Just curious what you would say

I think Bochy is a good manager- a lot of his record was San Diego when they were like the Marlins or Astros recently. Last 5 years with San Francisco he's 62 games over .500 or over 10 games per year. That's with this year(you take that out and he's 72 games over .500 or an average of 90-72). Liked how he handled Lincecum last postseason how he used him in the pen.

(10-22-2013 07:57 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I think Bochy is a good manager- a lot of his record was San Diego when they were like the Marlins or Astros recently. Last 5 years with San Francisco he's 62 games over .500 or over 10 games per year. That's with this year(you take that out and he's 72 games over .500 or an average of 90-72). Liked how he handled Lincecum last postseason how he used him in the pen.

that's my point though, it's all about the players. In 2011, mattingly's first season as manager, the dodgers starting 9 looked like this:
C- Rod Barajas
1B- James Loney
2B- Jamey Carroll
3B- Juan Uribe
SS- Dee Gordon
LF- Tony Gwynn Jr
CF- Matt Kemp
RF- Andre Ethier

Aside from Kershaw and Kuroda, they had no starters who were even league average. That motley crew finished 3 games over .500.

in 2012 their lineup wasn't much better and they ended 10 games over .500. This year they added a few great players and unsurprisingly they went 92-70 and made the NLCS. In the end I don't think it's fair for us to just assume that Mattingly could've done better and that he isn't the right guy for the job.

all I'm saying is you take out 1 50 game run for Mattingly and he's 1 game over .500. And that perhaps he is overrated as a manager. Heck, of all the managers this post season- where would folks rate him? I don't know how many teams he'd be viewed as an upgrade that made the post season. Maybe Cincy but other than that?

(10-23-2013 08:12 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Heck, of all the managers this post season- where would folks rate him?

again, i can't answer that. We don't have anywhere near enough data. Assuming full health, next year will be the first one in which he has his full team ready from the start.

(10-22-2013 06:17 PM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  Lincecum resigns with Giants for 2/35. Love the years, absolutely hate the amount. I realize i always say that in today's game it's not about the money and all about the years, but this is insane. $35 million for a guy who is barely a #4 starter. I think this is a combo of: A) Giants didn't like any of the available free agent starters B) They believe Timmy has a little bit of upside left C) Giants are freakin rolling in cash

Probably the right move for them, although the dollars do seem high for recent performance.

Is Zito finally finished with the Giants?

(10-23-2013 11:21 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  

(10-23-2013 08:12 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Heck, of all the managers this post season- where would folks rate him?

again, i can't answer that. We don't have anywhere near enough data. Assuming full health, next year will be the first one in which he has his full team ready from the start.

I don't think he's going to be managing the Dodgers. Dodgers have to make a choice based on all the data and outside of 1 stretch he's been meh. I don't think the Dodgers want to do a long term deal for him quite frankly with all the data they have, and I don't think Mattingly wants to be back on a 1 year deal.