(10-19-2013 08:46 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(10-19-2013 08:36 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Louisville isn't out of BCS contention. If they win out and are in the top 14(which would be very likely), it just will hinge on the number of "dead" teams. If there's enough, Louisville has to go.

Oh and the Op doesn't have the worst case scenario at all....
lets say title game matchup is in this Alabama/Ohio St... Worst case scenario for Orange....
Sugar replaces Alabama with SEC team. Let's say LSU
Rose replaces Ohio St with... problem. No Big Ten Team in top 14. They take FSU.

Orange gets 1st choice... they have to choose from Pac 12 team, UCF, or Fresno St. I think after what happened with Stanford, they don't take them again.

The only way Louisville goes is if they win the AAC auto-bid. The AAC won't get an at-large...

it's possible if they are in the top 14 they HAVE to go at large. The 2 team per conference rule could help them out..

(10-19-2013 08:53 PM)4x4hokies Wrote:  

(10-19-2013 08:36 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Louisville isn't out of BCS contention. If they win out and are in the top 14(which would be very likely), it just will hinge on the number of "dead" teams. If there's enough, Louisville has to go.

Oh and the Op doesn't have the worst case scenario at all....
lets say title game matchup is in this Alabama/Ohio St... Worst case scenario for Orange....
Sugar replaces Alabama with SEC team. Let's say LSU
Rose replaces Ohio St with... problem. No Big Ten Team in top 14. They take FSU.

Orange gets 1st choice... they have to choose from Pac 12 team, UCF, or Fresno St. I think after what happened with Stanford, they don't take them again.

The Orange takes Stanford in a pre-arranged swap for Baylor.

Remember they didn't flip Stanford and Oklahoma 2 years ago. That would be a very similar situation.

(10-19-2013 08:55 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-19-2013 08:46 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(10-19-2013 08:36 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Louisville isn't out of BCS contention. If they win out and are in the top 14(which would be very likely), it just will hinge on the number of "dead" teams. If there's enough, Louisville has to go.

Oh and the Op doesn't have the worst case scenario at all....
lets say title game matchup is in this Alabama/Ohio St... Worst case scenario for Orange....
Sugar replaces Alabama with SEC team. Let's say LSU
Rose replaces Ohio St with... problem. No Big Ten Team in top 14. They take FSU.

Orange gets 1st choice... they have to choose from Pac 12 team, UCF, or Fresno St. I think after what happened with Stanford, they don't take them again.

The only way Louisville goes is if they win the AAC auto-bid. The AAC won't get an at-large...

it's possible if they are in the top 14 they HAVE to go at large. The 2 team per conference rule could help them out..

Louisville will not get in as an at-large. There will be too many teams in front of them in the top 14.

(10-19-2013 09:03 PM)jaminandjachin Wrote:  

(10-19-2013 08:55 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-19-2013 08:46 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(10-19-2013 08:36 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Louisville isn't out of BCS contention. If they win out and are in the top 14(which would be very likely), it just will hinge on the number of "dead" teams. If there's enough, Louisville has to go.

Oh and the Op doesn't have the worst case scenario at all....
lets say title game matchup is in this Alabama/Ohio St... Worst case scenario for Orange....
Sugar replaces Alabama with SEC team. Let's say LSU
Rose replaces Ohio St with... problem. No Big Ten Team in top 14. They take FSU.

Orange gets 1st choice... they have to choose from Pac 12 team, UCF, or Fresno St. I think after what happened with Stanford, they don't take them again.

The only way Louisville goes is if they win the AAC auto-bid. The AAC won't get an at-large...

it's possible if they are in the top 14 they HAVE to go at large. The 2 team per conference rule could help them out..

Louisville will not get in as an at-large. There will be too many teams in front of them in the top 14.

I agree, Louisville could be only 13 or 14. But, it would be all up to the teams in the top 14. If it's a certain mix, Louisville would HAVE to go.

Oh, and for those that think SEC gets 3 at most in top 14- let's say LSU comes back to win...

Alabama, LSU, Missouri, and Auburn this week would be top 14 for sure. Wouldn't be shocked if South Carolina or Texas A&M was like 14th either. So that would be the 4-5 teams from the SEC in the top 14.

(10-19-2013 08:57 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-19-2013 08:53 PM)4x4hokies Wrote:  

(10-19-2013 08:36 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Louisville isn't out of BCS contention. If they win out and are in the top 14(which would be very likely), it just will hinge on the number of "dead" teams. If there's enough, Louisville has to go.

Oh and the Op doesn't have the worst case scenario at all....
lets say title game matchup is in this Alabama/Ohio St... Worst case scenario for Orange....
Sugar replaces Alabama with SEC team. Let's say LSU
Rose replaces Ohio St with... problem. No Big Ten Team in top 14. They take FSU.

Orange gets 1st choice... they have to choose from Pac 12 team, UCF, or Fresno St. I think after what happened with Stanford, they don't take them again.

The Orange takes Stanford in a pre-arranged swap for Baylor.

Remember they didn't flip Stanford and Oklahoma 2 years ago. That would be a very similar situation.

Flipping a traveling team like Oklahoma for Stanford is not the same as flipping Baylor for Stanford.

I don't see the Fiesta agreeing to not have a conference champion this year when they won't ever have one again. Especially if Baylor is 12-0 and #3. They can't force the Fiesta to move them..

(10-19-2013 08:55 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-19-2013 08:46 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  

(10-19-2013 08:36 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Louisville isn't out of BCS contention. If they win out and are in the top 14(which would be very likely), it just will hinge on the number of "dead" teams. If there's enough, Louisville has to go.

Oh and the Op doesn't have the worst case scenario at all....
lets say title game matchup is in this Alabama/Ohio St... Worst case scenario for Orange....
Sugar replaces Alabama with SEC team. Let's say LSU
Rose replaces Ohio St with... problem. No Big Ten Team in top 14. They take FSU.

Orange gets 1st choice... they have to choose from Pac 12 team, UCF, or Fresno St. I think after what happened with Stanford, they don't take them again.

The only way Louisville goes is if they win the AAC auto-bid. The AAC won't get an at-large...

it's possible if they are in the top 14 they HAVE to go at large. The 2 team per conference rule could help them out..

The Cards are going to drop like a stone in the next poll. They'll have a lot of ground to make up...

they'll drop, but with all the other carnage today, that really helps them a lot. If they finish 11-1, they will almost certainly be top 14.

(10-19-2013 09:58 PM)stever20 Wrote:  they'll drop, but with all the other carnage today, that really helps them a lot. If they finish 11-1, they will almost certainly be top 14.

If NIU and Fresno keep winning, they'll get the at-large you're hoping the Cards get. IMO Louisville will end up being behind both NIU and Fresno. They benefit from all the carnage today, much more so than Louisville...

Looks like a bad night for Clem and his son.

(10-19-2013 09:14 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Oh, and for those that think SEC gets 3 at most in top 14- let's say LSU comes back to win...

Alabama, LSU, Missouri, and Auburn this week would be top 14 for sure. Wouldn't be shocked if South Carolina or Texas A&M was like 14th either. So that would be the 4-5 teams from the SEC in the top 14.

And that would be a travesty.

it's possible. also those 2 might only have to get up to top 14 to get in rather than top 12.

it's not a guarantee that a 11-1 Louisville would be behind NIU or Fresno. And, it could get into a situation where Louisville was 13 and NIU/Fresno at 14- that one of those have to go- but neither guaranteed to go. Would be up to the bowls, and I think the bowls would choose Louisville.

(10-19-2013 10:13 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(10-19-2013 09:14 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Oh, and for those that think SEC gets 3 at most in top 14- let's say LSU comes back to win...

Alabama, LSU, Missouri, and Auburn this week would be top 14 for sure. Wouldn't be shocked if South Carolina or Texas A&M was like 14th either. So that would be the 4-5 teams from the SEC in the top 14.

And that would be a travesty.

teams I think in top 14-
ACC- Florida St, Miami, Clemson
B10- Ohio St
B12- Baylor, Texas Tech
P12- Oregon, Stanford for sure. UCLA ?
SEC- Alabama, Missouri, Auburn for sure. LSU, A&M ?

that's 11 teams for sure. 3? teams- that's 14.

next group would have
AAC- Louisville, UCF
ACC- VT
B10- Wisconsin, Nebraska, Michigan, Michigan St
B12- Oklahoma, Oklahoma St
P12- Oregon St, Utah?
SEC- South Carolina
Non-AQ- Fresno, NIU
so yeah by process of elimination SEC will be close to 5 teams. especially with the computers.

I think the Orange Bowl has a new possible dilemma.

FSU could easily make the NC game. Suppose the do.

Miami is not really a top 10 team but they will be ranked there when they play FSU and highly ranked when they play VT. If they lose both, then VT will probably finish 11-1 and then get spanked in the ACC title game. Who does the Orange Bowl pick between a 11-2 VT, 10-2 Miami, and probably a 10-2 Clemson (Clemson likely folks now and losses to SC). All of them will probably be ranked in the lower teens.

Theres still a lot of time left this season.anyone can lose again. Top 3 can lose 1 and probably remain there

(10-19-2013 10:39 PM)lumberpack4 Wrote:  I think the Orange Bowl has a new possible dilemma.

FSU could easily make the NC game. Suppose the do.

Miami is not really a top 10 team but they will be ranked there when they play FSU and highly ranked when they play VT. If they lose both, then VT will probably finish 11-1 and then get spanked in the ACC title game. Who does the Orange Bowl pick between a 11-2 VT, 10-2 Miami, and probably a 10-2 Clemson (Clemson likely folks now and losses to SC). All of them will probably be ranked in the lower teens.

Miami beats VT but loses to FSU twice...Based on that..this scenario would have Miami in the Orange Bowl

Seeing the way Oregon is going against WSU, it makes it easy for me to admit that FSU may absolutely be the team to take on Alabama.

I absolutely thought that UCLA was the superior team to Stanford. Oregon has to travel to Stanford this year. Oregon could absolutely lose that game.

FSU looks free and clear to an undefeated season. Normally I would be of the belief that FSU would find a way to lose, but not this year. This year they seem to actually be playing up to their potential, finally.

(10-19-2013 11:29 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  Seeing the way Oregon is going against WSU, it makes it easy for me to admit that FSU may absolutely be the team to take on Alabama.

I absolutely thought that UCLA was the superior team to Stanford. Oregon has to travel to Stanford this year. Oregon could absolutely lose that game.

FSU looks free and clear to an undefeated season. Normally I would be of the belief that FSU would find a way to lose, but not this year. This year they seem to actually be playing up to their potential, finally.

I agree. I might have thought if FSU had to go to Miami- maybe an upset special type game there. But nope. only road games left are Wake and Florida.

think if FSU is gonna lose, it's next week. NC State for whatever reason has had their number lately. 4-4 last 8 games with NC State. Another one though that is at FSU.

(10-19-2013 11:33 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-19-2013 11:29 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  Seeing the way Oregon is going against WSU, it makes it easy for me to admit that FSU may absolutely be the team to take on Alabama.

I absolutely thought that UCLA was the superior team to Stanford. Oregon has to travel to Stanford this year. Oregon could absolutely lose that game.

FSU looks free and clear to an undefeated season. Normally I would be of the belief that FSU would find a way to lose, but not this year. This year they seem to actually be playing up to their potential, finally.

I agree. I might have thought if FSU had to go to Miami- maybe an upset special type game there. But nope. only road games left are Wake and Florida.

think if FSU is gonna lose, it's next week. NC State for whatever reason has had their number lately. 4-4 last 8 games with NC State. Another one though that is at FSU.

Yeah but this FSU squad just smoked Clemson at Clemson. Winston is something special and this team has really solidified around him. They finally have a quarterback that they believe in and it seems to have made all the difference in the world.

They play with a swagger that we havn't seen in their other recent 5 star filled rosters.