For those that don't know, during the 2nd half of football season, I try to look at the overall I-AA playoff picture to find out what teams still have a shot. I do this in an only slightly biased way (Go JMU!), but I do not eliminate a team until it becomes mathematically impossible for them to either win their conference Automatic Qualifier (AQ) or earn an At-Large Bid (which must be at least 7 Division I wins). This will also give us an idea of what games are important week-to-week across the country. (And for those people on CSN who are only familiar with I-A football, “playoffs” are what every other %#@%#! division uses to determine which school wins the championship.)

It's weird that this could my last season doing this (hopefully), but let's begin....

From a JMU Perspective...
Another roller coaster season for the JMU Dukes so far. We have some good weeks against weaker teams (CCSU, Charlotte, Albany), we have some bad weeks against weaker teams (Akron and StFU), a loss to Delaware, and now a win against the Ticks of Richmond. With there being 12 games this year, we really need to get to 8 wins to have a shot at anything. (Seven wins would also mean that we don't even finish the CAA with a winning record – making our case even weaker.) We have a one-week rest coming up before the final push begins with a trip to W&M.

By the Numbers (107 total teams)...

Teams Alive for any Playoff spot:
10/13 – 104

Teams Alive for an At-Large spot:
10/13 – 82

Teams that have reached 7 wins (without clinching a conference):
10/13 – 1


Here's the overall playoff eligibility list. I am not listing transitioning teams (ODU, Incarnate Word, etc) to keep this more straightforward. The number in parenthesis after a team is how many more losses they can have before they can't reach 7 wins. Teams that are in RED cannot reach 7 wins and therefore must win their conference AQ. When a team reaches 7 wins, I will list them in GREEN. When a team clinches an AQ spot, I will list them in BLUE.

CAA (11 Teams Alive)
Maine (4)
Towson (4)
JMU (3)
Delaware (3)
W&M (3)
Villanova (2)
UNH (1)
Richmond (1)
Stony Brook (1)
URI (0)
Albany

Big Sky (13 Teams Alive)
Cal Poly (3)
Montana State (3)
EWU (3)
Montana (3)
Northern Arizona (2)
Southern Utah (2)
Sac State (0)
UC Davis (0)
Idaho State (0)
North Dakota (0)
Portland State
Northern Colorado
Weber State

Big South (6 Teams Alive)
Coastal Carolina (5)
Charleston Southern (4)
Liberty (0)
Gardner-Webb (0)
VMI
Presbyterian

Independent (1 Team Alive)
Monmouth (1)

MEAC (10 Teams Alive)
Bethune-Cookman (3)
SC State (2)
NC Central (1)
Florida A&M (1)
Norfolk State (1)
NC A&T (1)
Delaware State (0)
Hampton (0)
Morgan State (0)
Howard

MVC (10 Teams Alive)
Youngstown State (4)
ND State (3)
No. Iowa (3)
SD State (2)
South Dakota (2)
So. Illinois (1)
W. Illinois (0)
Illinois State (0)
Indiana State
Missouri State

NEC (7 Teams Alive)
Sacred Heart (2)
Duquesne (1)
Bryant (1)
Robert Morris (1)
Cent. Conn. State
Wagner
StFU

OVC (9 Teams Alive)
E. Illinois (4)
Tenn. State (3)
Tenn.-Martin (3)
EKU (2)
Jacksonville State (2)
Murray State (1)
Tenn. Tech (0)
SE Missouri State
Austin Peay

Patriot League (7 Teams Alive)
Fordham – 7 Wins (Cannot win AQ)
Lehigh (3)
Holy Cross (1)
Lafayette (0)
Colgate (0)
Bucknell (0)
Georgetown

Pioneer League (12 Teams Alive)
Dayton (2)
Butler (1)
Morehead State (1)
Marist (1)
San Diego (1)
Drake (0)
Mercer (0) (Cannot win AQ)
Valparaiso
Jacksonville
Campbell
Stetson
Davidson

SoCon (7 Teams Alive)
Samford (3)
Chatty (3)
Wofford (2)
Furman (1)
Citadel (0)
Elon
W. Carolina

Southland (8 Teams Alive)
Sam Houston State (4)
SE Louisiana (3)
McNeese State (3)
Central Ark. (1)
Nichols State (1)
NW State (1)
Stephen F. Austin (0)
Lamar (0)

Must Win Out to reach 7 wins:
URI
Sac State
UC Davis
Idaho State
North Dakota
Liberty
Gardner-Webb
Delaware State
Hampton
Morgan State
W. Illinois
Illinois State
Tenn. Tech
Lafayette
Colgate
Bucknell
Drake
Mercer
Citadel
Stephen F. Austin
Lamar

Completely Eliminated from the Playoffs
Savannah State (too dumb for postseason)
Georgia Southern (moving to I-A)
Appy State (moving to I-A)

Going for Perfection (no losses of any type)
Charleston Southern
Coastal Carolina
Harvard
NDSU
Fordham

Race to the Bottom (an 0-fer season)
Columbia
Austin Peay
Davidson
Arkansas-PB
Grambling State
and Georgia State (hahaha)


Conference Analysis

(Since most teams haven't even played half of their conference games, the races for the AQs are still wide open. So this week, I'll just be looking at the current top teams to win the AQ and see when some of the deciding games might be. I won't go too in-depth this week.)

CAA – The top 3 teams right now seem to be Maine, Towson, and Villanova. However, Towson just lost to Villanova this past weekend, so it looks like the game in 2 weeks between Maine and Villanove could decide it all. (Maine does not play Towson this year.) Seven CAA teams have one loss or less, so it could get interesting if Maine and Villanova each lose one.

Big Sky – Again, there are 3 teams here with no conference losses (all at 2-0). Montana State and Cal Poly will not face each other, but they both will face EWU. Cal Poly looks to be the weakest of the 3 teams based on how they've played so far. Five more teams are waiting with one conference loss.

Big South – The Big South is down to 6 teams this season, so with only 5 conference games for each team, it will be difficult for one team to pull away from the pack. There have been only 2 conference games so far, but Charleston Southern and Coastal Carolina are both undefeated overall. (All other teams have at least 3 losses.) Chuck South has played the weaker schedule (2 lower division teams) and most of their games have been relatively close, but they also have a rare 13th game (a by-product of the Colorado floods). Coastal, however, has been winning some games decisively and have no lower division games spoiling their schedule. They will meet on November 9th, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Chuck South struggling by then.

Independent – Monmouth is the only independent team that is playoff-eligible, so they're the only one I can about here. They'll be in the Big South next year (replacing VMI), but this year they can only get an At-Large. With 4 losses already, they really need to win out to have a shot at the playoffs. It's possible, but not too likely.

MEAC – As usual, the favorites look to be Bethune-Cookman and SC State. Both teams have been earning a lot of their wins by solid margins. Of course, most of their games are against HBCU competition (which tends to be low), but B-C even has a 21-point win against a I-A team (FIU). They will play each other in 2 weeks, so be on the look out for that. If B-C loses that, but wins everything else, I could easily see them as an At-Large – they would finish 10-2 with losses to an AQ team and to Florida State, but a good I-A win. NC A&T is another one to watch since they actually played (and beat) some non-HBCU teams in Appy and Elon. They also came very close to knocking off SC State. Their recent loss to Hampton might mean that they are on the way down, but we can keep an eye on them. (They do not play B-C this year.)

MVC – Can anyone knock off NDSU? Northern Iowa tried but failed by 1 point. We know Kansas State couldn't. We've got a whole month before Youngstown tries – and Youngstown doesn't look as strong now that they're facing full-scholarship teams. This is a multi-bid conference, but there are a surprising number of teams who are getting close to elimination with 6 weeks still to go.

NEC – Not a pretty conference. They lost 2 teams this year (Albany and Monmouth) so they are down to only 7 schools. No one is running away with this. Last year's champ Wagner lost to friggin' Merrimack - that's wicked bad. The Duques lost to non-scholarship Dayton and only has 10 DI games. Sacred Heart has started “6-1”, but 2 of those wins are to lower division teams – so really they are only 4-1. But that one loss? To Wagner...who lost to MERRIMACK!!!! Last year, I mentioned the possibility of an At Large coming out of the NEC. I certainly do not see that happening this year.

OVC – Ah – the OVC. This is a conference that just can't take that next step. They get some good records in the regular season, but then can't win in the playoffs. (They still have not won one playoff game.) Like last year at this time, the top 2 teams here are Eastern Illinois and Tenn State. Unlike last year, Tenn State is staying strong against non-HBCU teams. They might have a real shot at the AQ and with the extra At Larges, it is likely that one will come from the OVC. Maybe one of the teams can finally break the curse.

Patriot – Four of the seven teams have not played a conference game yet. The big surprise is Fordham. They already have 7 wins (with one of those wins at Temple), so they have a great shot at an At Large. (Which is good for them since they still cannot win the AQ due to them offering athletic scholarships before everyone else.) Like usual, Lehigh is also near the top of the standings. They should be the favorite to win the AQ with a good record so far. Most other teams are already close to elimination from At Large contention.

Pioneer – This is the 1st year that the Pioneer gets an AQ, so now we have to start paying attention to them. I, for one, am not opposed to this AQ being added – especially since it added 3 At Larges. This could also light a fire for some of the Pioneer to start upgrading their programs (like Mercer is). Looking at the records right now is a little difficult since many of the teams have a lot of lower division teams at the beginning of the season. Dayton and Marist are 2 of the teams who have beaten scholarship teams, so those are teams to watch. We can guess that there will be no At Large coming from this conference, so winning the AQ is crucial.

SoCon – With Georgia Southern and Appy leaving for the Sunbelt next year, the historic top teams are out of the playoff race. Samford, Chatty, and Wofford are the main contenders from the SoCon. Those three teams still have to play each other, so it will be interesting to see who pulls ahead. And yes, games against Appy and GSU do count in the conference standings – which could prove to be very important.

Southland – To the surprise of no one, Sam Houston State looks like the favorite to win the AQ, but it remains to be seen if they are invincible. Lamar held them to only 14 points last game, so if better teams are able to do that, SHS could be in a little bit of trouble. I say “a little bit” because I still see SHS getting at least an At Large, especially with an expanded field. They could get a good test next week with McNeese.

First off, nice round up. You might want to take a look at this article about the changes they've made to the selection process. Says they may consider schools with just six D1 wins and supposedly D2 wins will count for something.

Nothing 'Simple' about FCS playoff selections

I always look forward to reading these playoff status reports this time of year - thanks!

Duke Dawg already had a 10/13 playoff status thread going. Mods- could we merge the 2?
http://csnbbs.com/showthread.php?tid=654737

Quote:It's weird that this could my last season doing this (hopefully), but let's begin....

I hope you continue to do this. I don't bother even reading half of the threads these days because they're garbage but I enjoy this read. You put a lot of work into this and thanks for doing that.

(10-15-2013 07:35 AM)Deez Nuts Wrote:  

Quote:It's weird that this could my last season doing this (hopefully), but let's begin....

I hope you continue to do this. I don't bother even reading half of the threads these days because they're garbage but I enjoy this read. You put a lot of work into this and thanks for doing that.

me too....helps me root

Great post and I, too, enjoy this info. each year. Does anyone know anything about this Simple Rating System in the article above? Is there a website that shows these ratings?

Question:

How is SOS determined? Is it based on who you have actually played up until a date or does it incorporate your entire schedule - played and future games to be played?

Our SOS is currently so low that I would be concerned if we wind up with an 8-4 record with a 225ish SOS that we would not get into the playoffs. If our SOS increases because we play stronger teams from here on out, wind up at 8-4 and 155 SOS or something, then, obviously, we have a better shot.

Your SOS is who you've played so far. SOS is also a funciton of how well the teams you've played do. I.e. we need to root for everyone we played. Akron beating Mich would've been HUGE for us and it doesn't help that CCSU and St. Francis are having very poor seasons.

(10-14-2013 11:53 PM)DooX Wrote:  First off, nice round up. You might want to take a look at this article about the changes they've made to the selection process. Says they may consider schools with just six D1 wins and supposedly D2 wins will count for something.

Nothing 'Simple' about FCS playoff selections

It's good that they are refining their formula, but without access to it, there's not much I can do to report it. Plus, it takes the fun out of trying to figure out the At Larges.

As for only needing 6 wins, I don't see that being any factor the next 2 years since teams can have 12 games (or 13 in Chuck South's case.). When it goes back to 11 games in the season, then we can see how many worthy teams are at that mark with this expanded field.

(10-14-2013 10:21 PM)NH/JMU Saxkow Wrote:  OVC – Ah – the OVC. This is a conference that just can't take that next step. They get some good records in the regular season, but then can't win in the playoffs. (They still have not won one playoff game.) Like last year at this time, the top 2 teams here are Eastern Illinois and Tenn State. Unlike last year, Tenn State is staying strong against non-HBCU teams. They might have a real shot at the AQ and with the extra At Larges, it is likely that one will come from the OVC. Maybe one of the teams can finally break the curse.

I think Eastern Illinois is a pretty good team this year. They will likely end the OVC's long playoff record of futility.

Look at their results:

W 40-19 AT FBS San Diego St
W 40-37 at Southern Illinois, who I think is very underrated. they have played a brutal schedule and done well. Lost to Illinois by 8, lost to EIU in OT by 3, lost to Youngstown by 1, won AT South Dakota St and won AT Northern Iowa. SIU plays at home to ND state this week. I can see them ending NDSU's streak as they have not played great the last few weeks.

W 57-27 Illinois St
L 43-39 at undefeated, ranked FBS northern illinois
W 42-7 Eastern Kentucky, a traditionally strong program
W 63-7 at Austin Peay

EIU seems VERY good to me.

(10-15-2013 01:39 PM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  

(10-14-2013 10:21 PM)NH/JMU Saxkow Wrote:  OVC – Ah – the OVC. This is a conference that just can't take that next step. They get some good records in the regular season, but then can't win in the playoffs. (They still have not won one playoff game.) Like last year at this time, the top 2 teams here are Eastern Illinois and Tenn State. Unlike last year, Tenn State is staying strong against non-HBCU teams. They might have a real shot at the AQ and with the extra At Larges, it is likely that one will come from the OVC. Maybe one of the teams can finally break the curse.

I think Eastern Illinois is a pretty good team this year. They will likely end the OVC's long playoff record of futility.

Look at their results:

W 40-19 AT FBS San Diego St
W 40-37 at Southern Illinois, who I think is very underrated. they have played a brutal schedule and done well. Lost to Illinois by 8, lost to EIU in OT by 3, lost to Youngstown by 1, won AT South Dakota St and won AT Northern Iowa. SIU plays at home to ND state this week. I can see them ending NDSU's streak as they have not played great the last few weeks.

W 57-27 Illinois St
L 43-39 at undefeated, ranked FBS northern illinois
W 42-7 Eastern Kentucky, a traditionally strong program
W 63-7 at Austin Peay

EIU seems VERY good to me.

I agree. One of their problems will be the fact that they will likely be paired up against an MVC team in the playoffs (like last year) due to geography.

Are they still subsidizing their conference members bids?

-Regarding App and Ga South, if one of them miraculously wins the SoCon, will the auto bid go to the #2 team, since App/GaSouth are ineligible?

-Similar question with Fordham. They are a special case, the only team in their conf to offer any scholarships. So their only way into the playoffs is at-large, correct?

(10-15-2013 03:26 PM)Dante Wrote:  -Regarding App and Ga South, if one of them miraculously wins the SoCon, will the auto bid go to the #2 team, since App/GaSouth are ineligible?

Yes. Just like last year, ODU could not win the CAA autobid, so it went to Villanova. ODU was not even considered the CAA champ - however, they were able to get an At Large due to where they were in their move-up process. Appy and GSU are past that point, so they are officially out of all playoff contention.

(10-15-2013 03:26 PM)Dante Wrote:  -Similar question with Fordham. They are a special case, the only team in their conf to offer any scholarships. So their only way into the playoffs is at-large, correct?

Correct. It's been this way for a couple of years, but Fordham then started sucking. The Patriot has just started phasing in athletic football scholarships, so that ban will be over soon.

(10-14-2013 11:53 PM)DooX Wrote:  First off, nice round up. You might want to take a look at this article about the changes they've made to the selection process. Says they may consider schools with just six D1 wins and supposedly D2 wins will count for something.

I'm almost positive the committee has always "considered" a school with six D1 wins for the playoffs. Montana was "considered" with their six D1 wins a couple years ago, and were probably the first team out of the playoffs. I also seem to recall Mickey lobbying pretty hard back in 2009, trying to pass us off as a playoff team because of our win over Tech and 4-4 finish in conference.

In terms of counting D2 wins, they should really just weight them the same as wins against the non-scholarship I-AAs. There's really no difference that I can see between the two groups.

Thanks as always Saxkow! Best analysis in the country right here on our site every year!

(10-15-2013 10:21 PM)PurpleStreamers Wrote:  Thanks as always Saxkow! Best analysis in the country right here on our site every year!

I would definitely agree with this. Like Deez said in an earlier post, I am growing tired of reading the same-old, same-old about conference realignment and fire Mickey rants. It's refreshing to read a good quality analysis of where we stand in relation to everyone else. Thanks for the work!