1. Marshall
2. ECU
3. Tulane
4. Rice
5. UNT
6. FAU
7. Tulsa
8. MT
9. UTSA
10. La Tech
11. UAB
12. UTEP
13. FIU
14. USM

This is based on strength of schedule and what I've seen on the field, taking recent play into account. I really think that Marshall and ECU are pretty much interchangeable at this point and that Tulane is rising really fast. I'm also really impressed with UNT and in particular FAU.

Going forward (looking at next season), I would keep my eye on MT and UTSA... along with USM, as they will be improved.

I really had high hopes for UAB, as I really like their coach. Hopefully they will get things turned around.

The Rice vs. Tulane game is shaping up to be the game of the year in the West... possibly in the conference. Who would of thought?

I don't get the infatuation w/ Tulane. Nothing to do with being a Rice fan..just in general.

They are #99 in the country in rushing O and #99 in passing O.

The reason they have some W's is b/c they are #1 in the country in takeaways (20). That is important from net turnover margin where you have more control over your own mistakes. In other words, other teams are making mistakes (beating themselves) to allow Tulane to be in ballgames and sneak out some W's. In game where other team does not turnover (Syracuse), Tulane got blown-out by 5TD's (remember Syracuse is not world beaters as Clemson beat them by 5 TDs).

So question is how long is going to take where they play an upcoming game where the other team does not turn the ball over b/c of their own mistakes? For example, ULM and Tulane play even game on stat sheet but ULM has 5 turnovers. So Tulane wins by 17.

Great turnaround and am happy to see them do well but ride the wave (green) why you can as it is dangerous way to live vs. being able to just line-up and beat people straight-up. I predict they end-up bowl eligible at 7-5 but lose two out of next three against Tulsa, @FAU, and @UTSA.

(10-18-2013 07:27 AM)owl40 Wrote:  I don't get the infatuation w/ Tulane. Nothing to do with being a Rice fan..just in general.

They are #99 in the country in rushing O and #99 in passing O.

The reason they have some W's is b/c they are #1 in the country in takeaways (20). That is important from net turnover margin where you have more control over your own mistakes. In other words, other teams are making mistakes (beating themselves) to allow Tulane to be in ballgames and sneak out some W's. In game where other team does not turnover (Syracuse), Tulane got blown-out by 5TD's (remember Syracuse is not world beaters as Clemson beat them by 5 TDs).

So question is how long is going to take where they play an upcoming game where the other team does not turn the ball over b/c of their own mistakes? For example, ULM and Tulane play even game on stat sheet but ULM has 5 turnovers. So Tulane wins by 17.

Great turnaround and am happy to see them do well but ride the wave (green) why you can as it is dangerous way to live vs. being able to just line-up and beat people straight-up. I predict they end-up bowl eligible at 7-5 but lose two out of next three against Tulsa, @FAU, and @UTSA.

It's the consistency that can't be overlooked. All their wins came from playing great defense. (J State, La Tech, UNT, ULM, ECU). Their losses came when the defense let them down. If you can score 28 on them and don't turn the ball over, you should probably beat them.

(10-18-2013 07:27 AM)owl40 Wrote:  They are #99 in the country in rushing O and #99 in passing O.

Offense has been 'meh' so far, we don't deny it. But one thing it has done is make few mistakes.

Quote:The reason they have some W's is b/c they are #1 in the country in takeaways (20). That is important from net turnover margin where you have more control over your own mistakes. In other words, other teams are making mistakes (beating themselves) to allow Tulane to be in ballgames and sneak out some W's.

True, as far as it goes. But you make it sound as if opponents' mistakes are just manna from Heaven that magically appear at opportune moments. Another way to look at it is that Tulane's D and special teams apply the pressure that helps to make such mistakes more likely, and has the talent/aggression to capitalize on the mistakes when they occur.

Quote:I predict they end-up bowl eligible at 7-5 but lose two out of next three against Tulsa, @FAU, and @UTSA.

That might happen. I think our chances are like so:

8-4: 50% chance
9-3: 25% chance
7-5: 20% chance
10-2: <4% chance
5-7 or 6-6: <2% chance

I don't honestly see any way we lose to UTEP. I think we should beat UTSA. I see the other 3 (Tulsa, @FAU, @Rice) not literally as toss-ups but basically anyone's game.

One other thing: the comparison to Syracuse is a bit off-point, IMHO. Yes, they're not "world-beaters" as you said. But they still have a better caliber of athlete, IMHO, than most C-USA teams. Including us, obviously.

On the turnover point, when I look at Rice's turnovers this year...almost all have been b/c of Rice mistakes..not a great play by the opposition. Bad throws, drops that have tipped balls, fumbling a punt, etc. I think that is true for more than 90% of turnovers..the other team makes a mistake more than 'incredible D or incredible ST' by the other team. I do think Tulane is much improved and they deserve props for that..but I also think that Tulane is having a magical season b/c of other teams giving them opportunities. When someone (e.g., Syracuse) does not give them opportunities, they are a different team. Look at stat sheet from ULM, ECU, etc....Tulane is maximizing opportunistic play more than lining-up and just out-playing the other team. I stand-by the 7-5. Rice could very well lay eggs and history shows they do..not a pro-Rice point but rather just putting some context around the enthusiasm here. The board is a bit over-the-skis on how they are being ranked. I do think Tulsa is a better team. Better teams don't always win but if turnovers are equal, I do think Tulsa wins.

1. The Syracuse blowout was sparked by a Tulane INT + 2 blocked punts + 1 blocked FG. Tulane played HORRIBLY that game.

2. Not all of the turnovers are fluky. If a defense hits the QB and jars the ball loose, that is NOT luck. If the DB baits a throw and jumps the route for six, that is NOT luck. That is skill - and the Chicago Bears D made a name for themselves doing just that.

3. The yardage totals are misleading, especially when teams are trying to throw their way back into a game when they are behind. Yards allowed is not the key stat - POINTS allowed is.

You are correct in that Tulane's gameplan is built around creating turnovers.

I don't think anyone thinks our defense is great.. I think we're just excited that they've made great improvements over a season ago

(10-18-2013 06:45 PM)owl40 Wrote:  On the turnover point, when I look at Rice's turnovers this year...almost all have been b/c of Rice mistakes..not a great play by the opposition. Bad throws, drops that have tipped balls, fumbling a punt, etc. I think that is true for more than 90% of turnovers..the other team makes a mistake more than 'incredible D or incredible ST' by the other team. I do think Tulane is much improved and they deserve props for that..but I also think that Tulane is having a magical season b/c of other teams giving them opportunities. When someone (e.g., Syracuse) does not give them opportunities, they are a different team. Look at stat sheet from ULM, ECU, etc....Tulane is maximizing opportunistic play more than lining-up and just out-playing the other team. I stand-by the 7-5. Rice could very well lay eggs and history shows they do..not a pro-Rice point but rather just putting some context around the enthusiasm here. The board is a bit over-the-skis on how they are being ranked. I do think Tulsa is a better team. Better teams don't always win but if turnovers are equal, I do think Tulsa wins.

Tulane has gotten breaks, no doubt. But we also haven't lost on the line of scrimmage. Tulane stuffed the run against ECU and UNT. Syracuse outgained Tulane by 100 yards; they had 4 TD drives under 20 yards. It should be noted I supposed that Rice was outgained in their games against Tulsa and UTSA as well, with UTSA romping for 264 on the ground against the Owls.'
Tulsa may be better than Tulane (we'll find out on a week) but based on what has happened on the field so far this season, Tulane is better.