(09-30-2013 12:44 PM)JMUETC Wrote:  

(09-30-2013 12:30 PM)JMUSteeler Wrote:  

(09-30-2013 11:39 AM)QuinDuke Wrote:  

(09-30-2013 10:56 AM)jmufbs Wrote:  You really can't break it down any better than that.
Statistics don't lie.

They can be used selectively, or in a vacuum, to create misunderstandings about a situation, not that that was the OP's intent. I wonder what the detail like this for the top 2-3 finishers in the conference for the period would look like.

I have no idea what the other schools records look like, I just know that putting this all together made me ill. It felt to me like we were no longer able to beat good teams, and low and behold the record actually bore that out. What's to argue, the only reason we have winning records is we play so many out of conference patsies. I'm sure the teams at the top of the CAA have better in conference records, how could they not. Basically we're middle of the pack, and our record proves it.

This.

Since I brought it up, I went back and looked. I excluded FBS games, and looked at final overall season records, but used records against teams based on their ranking at the time of the matchup. Here are the regular season results for the top 4 finishers in the conference for the last 2 years:


2012-

ODU was ineligible due to transition. Top 4 finishers were Richmond, UNH, Villanova, and Towson.

Richmond was 8-3 overall, 6-2 in conference. The Spiders went 2-2 against teams that finished with a winning record (1-2 v. teams that were ranked at the time they played), 6-0 against teams that finished with a losing record.

Out of conference wins: Garnder-Webb, VMI

UNH was 8-4, 6-2. They went 1-2 against teams with a winning record (1-3 v. ranked teams), 7-0 against teams with losing records.

Out of conference wins: Holy Cross, CCSU

Villanova was 8-4, 6-2. They went 2-2 against teams with a winning record (2-1 v. ranked teams), 6-0 against teams with losing records.

Out of conference wins: Fordham, Penn (loss to Stony Brook)

Towson was 7-4, 6-2. They went 3-2 against teams with a winning record (3-2 v. ranked teams), 4-0 against teams with losing records.

Out of conference wins: St. Francis



2011-

Top 4 finishers were Towson, ODU, Maine, and UNH.

Towson was 9-3, 7-1. They went 4-1 against teams with a winning record (4-1 v. ranked teams), 5-0 against teams with losing records.

Out of conference wins: Morehead St, Colgate

ODU was 10-3, 6-2. They went 2-2 against teams with a winning record (2-2 v. ranked teams), 6-0 against teams with losing records.

Out of conference wins: Campbell, Hampton

Maine was 9-4, 6-2. They went 4-2 against teams with a winning record (3-2 v. ranked teams), 4-0 against teams with losing records.

Out of conference wins: Bryant, Albany

UNH was 8-4,6-2. They went 4-1 against teams with a winning record (4-2 v. ranked teams), 4-1 against teams with losing records.

Out of conference wins: Lehigh, Holy Cross





I'll try to go back and look at the rest when I get home and don't have to worry with this impending shutdown foofaraw.

In the two years examined, the top 4 finishers- the conference elite- went 22-14, a winning percentage of .611%, against teams with winning records, and 20-15 against ranked teams (.571%). There isn't a powerhouse OOC foe up there, and most of the OOC teams played didn't finish well in their own conference play. What happened was that these teams beat their mediocre to bad opposition and were very competitive against their stronger foes.

(09-30-2013 01:55 PM)QuinDuke Wrote:  

(09-30-2013 12:44 PM)JMUETC Wrote:  

(09-30-2013 12:30 PM)JMUSteeler Wrote:  

(09-30-2013 11:39 AM)QuinDuke Wrote:  

(09-30-2013 10:56 AM)jmufbs Wrote:  You really can't break it down any better than that.
Statistics don't lie.

They can be used selectively, or in a vacuum, to create misunderstandings about a situation, not that that was the OP's intent. I wonder what the detail like this for the top 2-3 finishers in the conference for the period would look like.

I have no idea what the other schools records look like, I just know that putting this all together made me ill. It felt to me like we were no longer able to beat good teams, and low and behold the record actually bore that out. What's to argue, the only reason we have winning records is we play so many out of conference patsies. I'm sure the teams at the top of the CAA have better in conference records, how could they not. Basically we're middle of the pack, and our record proves it.

This.

Since I brought it up, I went back and looked. I excluded FBS games, and looked at final overall season records, but used records against teams based on their ranking at the time of the matchup. Here are the regular season results for the top 4 finishers in the conference for the last 2 years:


2012-

ODU was ineligible due to transition. Top 4 finishers were Richmond, UNH, Villanova, and Towson.

Richmond was 8-3 overall, 6-2 in conference. The Spiders went 2-2 against teams that finished with a winning record (1-2 v. teams that were ranked at the time they played), 6-0 against teams that finished with a losing record.

Out of conference wins: Garnder-Webb, VMI

UNH was 8-4, 6-2. They went 1-2 against teams with a winning record (1-3 v. ranked teams), 7-0 against teams with losing records.

Out of conference wins: Holy Cross, CCSU

Villanova was 8-4, 6-2. They went 2-2 against teams with a winning record (2-1 v. ranked teams), 6-0 against teams with losing records.

Out of conference wins: Fordham, Penn (loss to Stony Brook)

Towson was 7-4, 6-2. They went 3-2 against teams with a winning record (3-2 v. ranked teams), 4-0 against teams with losing records.

Out of conference wins: St. Francis



2011-

Top 4 finishers were Towson, ODU, Maine, and UNH.

Towson was 9-3, 7-1. They went 4-1 against teams with a winning record (4-1 v. ranked teams), 5-0 against teams with losing records.

Out of conference wins: Morehead St, Colgate

ODU was 10-3, 6-2. They went 2-2 against teams with a winning record (2-2 v. ranked teams), 6-0 against teams with losing records.

Out of conference wins: Campbell, Hampton

Maine was 9-4, 6-2. They went 4-2 against teams with a winning record (3-2 v. ranked teams), 4-0 against teams with losing records.

Out of conference wins: Bryant, Albany

UNH was 8-4,6-2. They went 4-1 against teams with a winning record (4-2 v. ranked teams), 4-1 against teams with losing records.

Out of conference wins: Lehigh, Holy Cross





I'll try to go back and look at the rest when I get home and don't have to worry with this impending shutdown foofaraw.

In the two years examined, the top 4 finishers- the conference elite- went 22-14, a winning percentage of .611%, against teams with winning records, and 20-15 against ranked teams (.571%). There isn't a powerhouse OOC foe up there, and most of the OOC teams played didn't finish well in their own conference play. What happened was that these teams beat their mediocre to bad opposition and were very competitive against their stronger foes.

And what happened to us was we fell into the mediocre level of competion. Those numbers are considerably better than ours, which were 33% against teams with winning records and 14% against the top of the CAA. We beat the bad teams, and lost to the good teams. Puts us right in the middle.

I thoroughly disagree with leaving out the ODU numbers in 2012. They were not eligible for the conference championship, but they were eligible for the playoffs and made the semis. Our game with them at the end of last year was a de facto playoff game for us, and leaving them out and adding UNH skews the numbers.

(09-30-2013 02:05 PM)JMUSteeler Wrote:  I thoroughly disagree with leaving out the ODU numbers in 2012. They were not eligible for the conference championship, but they were eligible for the playoffs and made the semis. Our game with them at the end of last year was a de facto playoff game for us, and leaving them out and adding UNH skews the numbers.

ODU went 10-1, 7-1 in 2012. They played Duguesne, Hampton, and Campbell in OOC play, and won them all; none of those teams finished with winning records. They went 4-1 against winning opposition, and 6-0 against teams with losing records. They went 4-1 against CAA teams that finished the season ranked in the top 25.

^ that was a very good team.

(09-28-2013 06:50 PM)CaryNCDuke Wrote:  hburg when you read this could you request a chat channel for JMU?

Created.