ken d
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RE: Trading places scenario...
(09-27-2013 11:50 AM)SMUfrat Wrote: (09-27-2013 09:01 AM)Dr. Isaly von Yinzer Wrote: My team is Pitt and we would be DESTROYED if we were relegated, as it were. That is why I was sweating so badly when the realignment carousel first began to spin back in 2009 or 2010. I knew that there were only so many available seats at the adults' table and if we didn't land one of them we would be hosed.
We already caught a glimpse of that phenomenon when Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College left the original Big East and were replaced by South Florida, Louisville and Cincinnati. Even though the actual quality of the programs didn't change that much, the perception quickly became that the league had basically become a D2 league. As such, a game vs. Virginia Tech that would have garnered 53K fans turned into 43K fans when it was against Louisville.
To make matters worse, even after the defections, Pitt still struggled. Unfortunately, for most Pittsburghers the lesson wasn't, "Wow, I guess Cincinnati was pretty good" - as it should have been. Instead the reaction was, "Pitt can't even beat Cincinnati."
Please note that I do not hold those views personally, I am merely explaining the dominant mentality here.
You have to understand that schools that are located in pro sports markets are at an ENORMOUS disadvantage on every possible level right from the start. Take Pitt for example. Even when we're very good, we're still well behind the Steelers, Penguins and Pirates on the interest/media coverage front. That is a MAJOR obstacle to overcome and it is not factored in enough during these types of discussions. There is nothing harder than marketing minor league sports in major league towns. That is why it is so rare to see AHL teams in NHL towns and AAA baseball teams in MLB cities. Who wants to go watch the Chicago Wolves when they could watch the Chicago Blackhawks? Who wants to spend money on the Brooklyn Cyclones when they could use that money on the New York Yankees? Well, here, the attitude is, "Why should I spend time worrying about Pitt/Virginia this weekend when I could focus my attention (and money) on the Steelers/Vikings or the big Pirates/Reds series?"
That is EXTREMELY challenging to overcome and that is also true of Minnesota, Northwestern, Miami, Temple, Southern Methodist, Vanderbilt, Houston, South Florida and almost every other college football program that has to compete directly against an NFL team.
That is why I laugh when people bemoaned the fact that markets were determining teams' attractiveness to conferences. From my perspective, it was like, "It's about gawddamn time our location worked in our favor because it works against us on every other level." I would imagine that the Rutgers and Maryland folks feel the same way.
Well said - but it might help with college BB way moreso than FB. ECU gets 50,000 people and is in Bumfuc NC. SMU is in dallas and struggles to get 35K on average. TCUseless is a little easier since Ft. Worthless has nothing.
I think part of the good Dr's point is that in some ways it is an advantage to be in Bumfuc, NC instead of Dallas. ECU owns their part of the state, and isn't competing with anybody for fans. Your perception is that SMU struggles to get 35K on average. That would only be true if they actually came close to that, instead of the 20K they've been averaging for years.
But even with their ownership of eastern NC, and their long history of selling out their stadium, ECU had a modest but very noticeable decline in their attendance when C-USA lost several of its better teams to the BE/AAC. If they had not gotten into the AAC when they did, I'm afraid that attendance decline would have continued and accelerated with a steady diet of FAU's and Western Kentuckys.
Conversely, if the Pirates were promoted to the ACC, I don't think it would have as much effect on fan support as one might think. Their geography is a bit self limiting, IMO, and they are already close to maxing out on their potential. Competitively, though, they would exceed anything UNC or NC State have been able to sustain, just because success in football matters more to their fans than it does to their big brothers.
I suspect that if Wake Forest were relegated from the ACC, their decline in all sports would be dramatic. I think they would do well just to stay in Division I. Duke would fare a little better, at least for a while, thanks to their remarkable success in basketball. But continuing that success wouldn't be a slam dunk over, say, 20 years. I'm not sure they would even continue to offer football, and would try to latch on to a top hoops conference like the new Big East (which would take them in a heartbeat).
I think being relegated from the ACC would be a savage blow to NC State's ego. Too much of their identity is tied up in being a peer of UNC. Unless the Heels went along with them, they would have an existential crisis that would go beyond athletics. Carolina would probably die of embarrassment, so there's no telling how far they would fall if they weren't on the same level as South Carolina and Virginia.
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