LSU final PIG team at #45.

(09-25-2013 11:17 PM)stever20 Wrote:  LSU final PIG team at #45.

Is that a joke?

(09-26-2013 02:35 AM)NJRedMan Wrote:  

(09-25-2013 11:17 PM)stever20 Wrote:  LSU final PIG team at #45.

Is that a joke?

from ESPN's schedule article:
In his first season, Johnny Jones went 19-12 with an LSU squad that should be much better this season. Johnny O’Bryant III (15 double-doubles) is back and nationally ranked recruits Jarell Martin and Jordan Mickey will give the Tigers one of the best frontcourts in the SEC and, possibly, the nation.

Sounds like a team that could be a tourney team.

(09-26-2013 07:52 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(09-26-2013 02:35 AM)NJRedMan Wrote:  

(09-25-2013 11:17 PM)stever20 Wrote:  LSU final PIG team at #45.

Is that a joke?

from ESPN's schedule article:
In his first season, Johnny Jones went 19-12 with an LSU squad that should be much better this season. Johnny O’Bryant III (15 double-doubles) is back and nationally ranked recruits Jarell Martin and Jordan Mickey will give the Tigers one of the best frontcourts in the SEC and, possibly, the nation.

Sounds like a team that could be a tourney team.

Too bad there isn't a Big East/SEC challenge anymore where our bottom teams expose these "SEC Tourny Teams".

Thats what I loved about that challenge so much, A team like SH or Prov or SJU wjo would finish near the bottom of the BE would beat up some SEC team that all the pundits were saying would make some noise.

Arizona St is 1st team in at large with a 1st round bye.

updated thru the weekend- Iowa St and Iowa get at large bids(and 2 of the last 3 1st rd byes) and auto bid Harvard joins as a 11 seed.

Georgetown came in tonight at a surprising #36. In the view of the folks at College Sports Madness, the losses of Porter and Whittington will hurt a lot.

With the addition this year of the AAC auto bid...that means 32 teams will receive auto bids...while the NCAA committee will hand out just 36 at-large picks (vs 37 last year).

NCAA Tourn has never been about the Top Ranked 64-68 teams...as that only comes into play for at-large picks...which is why these pre-season and even IN-season lists are almost worthless...as anything can and usually does come conf tourn time.

Creighton came in today at #30. I thought they would be higher than that. College Sports Madness doesn't seem to be fans of the Big East.

30 is just about the worst ranking. it's a 8 seed so you get a 1 in the 3rd round.

(10-10-2013 09:12 PM)stever20 Wrote:  30 is just about the worst ranking. it's a 8 seed so you get a 1 in the 3rd round.

Yeah, an 8 seed is tough and makes for a very difficult 2nd round game. I think they'll finish better than that.

Villanova came in over the weekend at #27, 2nd in the Big East and a 7 seed. this means that they're picking Marquette as #1 in the conference.

St Louis came in today at#21.

Congratulations, Lou! Maybe big things will happen for the Billikens after all.

Maybe Welser saw me talking about it and decided he'd rank the Bills higher.

Probably not, but ya never know.

College Sports Madness projects only 2 Big East teams outside the top 100 - DePaul and Seton Hall. This is a point that has gone largely unmentioned. The Big East shapes up as a league with the potential for few if any bad losses. Borderline at 109, I'm optimistic that Seton hall can play its way into the top 100, which barring a surprise, would leave only Depaul as a potentially bad loss in conference.

Every other power conference has 3-4 teams outside the top 100 in the College Sports Madness projection. That leaves the potential for a lot more bad losses in conference than what the Big East is projecting with only 1-2 teams outside the top 100.

The thing about that though Melky- for teams like a Seton Hall to be in top 100, they're going to have to have at least 6-7 conference wins. They get 2 vs DePaul. That means they have to have 4-5 other wins. That's going to be coming vs teams on the bubble. While not considered a bad loss, it's still a loss. With how close some teams are gonna be to be in the tourney, they can't afford those.

Also- I think inevetiably you're going to find someone going 3-15 or something like that besides DePaul and out of the top 100. Just injuries piling up or just not that good of a team. It just happens. Just 1-2 things go south.

(10-28-2013 10:20 AM)stever20 Wrote:  The thing about that though Melky- for teams like a Seton Hall to be in top 100, they're going to have to have at least 6-7 conference wins. They get 2 vs DePaul. That means they have to have 4-5 other wins. That's going to be coming vs teams on the bubble. While not considered a bad loss, it's still a loss. With how close some teams are gonna be to be in the tourney, they can't afford those.

Also- I think inevetiably you're going to find someone going 3-15 or something like that besides DePaul and out of the top 100. Just injuries piling up or just not that good of a team. It just happens. Just 1-2 things go south.

If anyone not named Seton Hall falls outside the top 100, it'll likely be Butler.

Sure, someone can go 3-15, but that's not unique to the Big East. It can happen in any league. Maybe there will be a surprise in the opposite direction and DePaul will be competitive this year. It's not like they don't have any talent.

College Sports Madness was actually pretty conservative in rating the Big East. Ken Pom actually rated 9 out of 10 Big East teams in the top 65 to start the season with seton Hall #63. Overall, he rate the Big East the #2 conference.

While a loss is still a loss, SOS is a major factor in RPI and that does factor in quality of opponent when looking at losses. The committee no longer restricts itself just to RPI. Predictive power ratings all factor in strength of opponent and margin of victory. As long as the Big East maintains it's standing OOC, every team will benefit from quality of opponents in conference whether it's wins or losses - unless of course the bottom drops out for someone.

End of the day though- a 9-9 or worse team in conference play generally isn't going to the tourney. If 9th place is 6-12, that's not good for us. That's 4 wins vs teams 1-8(presumably 5-8) that could wind up being the dagger in them getting into the tourney.

what I'm saying- eventually the losses for teams 5-8 do start adding up.

Also, I would say Ken Pom's projected conference records would be an absolute disaster for us. 3 way tie for 6th at 8-10- none of those teams would get in with that record, and then Providence at 9-9- who would be very iffy with their OOC schedule.

Also, as Ken Pom even notes in his blog, his projected conference records generally won't happen. It's going to take more than 12-6 to win the Big East. With more wins for the top 2-3 teams, that's going to mean more losses for the middle and bottom teams.

Steve,
A team can finish 8-10 in conference and still make the NCAA tourney. I had a post a while back that broke down the numbers in the old 9-team Big East.

The numbers showed something like:
100% of BE teams over .500 made the NCAAs.
90% of teams at .500 made the NCAAs (only 1 team didn't make NCAAs at .500, BC in '84 when tourney was only 48 teams).
50% of teams who finished 2 games under (7-9) made the NCAAs. (like, 4 of 8).
0% of teams 4 games under (6-10) made the NCAAs. (might've been 0 of 6).

Also, you cannot dismiss Ken Pomeroy putting us as the 2nd best conference, ahead of the ACC. Ken Pom is basically the most trusted name in projections like this. Repeat, do not dismiss Ken Pom.

Also, repeating from above... 100% of Big East teams finishing at .500 or better made the NCAAs during the 9-team years in the 64 team tourney. 100%...! 100%...!

Also, 50% of teams 2-games under made the NCAAs...! 50%...! Half...! Half...!!!