After week #1 each of the P5 conferences now have toxic teams that can immediately derail the national title dreams of their conference brethren with a simple upset victory.

For the SEC that poison was created when Clemson beat Georgia making the Dawgs a poisonous team within the SEC. Now any team that Georgia beats (South Carolina, Florida, or L.S.U.) immediately falls behind the Clemson Tigers for consideration. Mississippi State and Kentucky are also poison, just not teams that are likely to win.

The ACC has two poisonous teams now, North Carolina and Virginia Tech. Any victory by one of those over an ACC contender becomes toxic to title hopes.

In the Big 12 where there is a round robin Kansas State, T.C.U., and more unlikely Iowa State are now poison. T.C.U. because L.S.U. could be a contender and therefore a measuring stick that favors the SEC and the other two because they lost to FCS schools. Although, like Mississippi State, Iowa State is not likely to be a major factor in this regard. But still that is 30% of the Big 12 that has just become championship cyanide.

The PAC is in better shape with just Oregon State falling into the poison category. Washington State won't be a likely threat.

The Big 10 is in pretty good shape as well since Purdue and Iowa don't figure to be likely upset victors over any top programs. But, should Notre Dame beat Michigan next week there will be a viable poisonous presence there as well.

The same will be true for the loser of next week's Florida vs Miami game.

It will be interesting to watch the levels of toxic contamination as the season continues. They always talk about strength of schedule but these kinds of things do factor into the consideration come championship time. For example had T.C.U. beaten L.S.U. only to later lose to Oklahoma State and L.S.U. beats Alabama and both Alabama and Oklahoma State end up with one loss then these factors which are one game removed from direct competition will weigh upon the consideration. It would be hard to refuse the Cowboys under those circumstances.

Thanks to the SEC's early season victories over Michigan, Virginia Tech, Oregon, and West Virginia the poison has favored the SEC in the past BCS selections, but with Georgia's early loss the only way the SEC avoids the poison is if L.S.U., Florida, and South Carolina all beat the Dawgs. Should South Carolina fall to Georgia next weekend the poison spreads. Last year Clemson beat Auburn in their opener, but Auburn didn't pan out at all so the poison was avoided.

Now obviously the best way to avoid getting poisoned is to go undefeated or to have your only loss be to a #1 or #2 team (at the time) by a very slim margin in a well contested game. How do you guys see it?

If only titles were won by transitive logic (though college football's BS way of determining a champion is not much better and might as well be).

at some of those teams being "poison". I stopped after reading the ACC and SEC, by the way.

(09-01-2013 07:45 PM)JRsec Wrote:  After week #1 each of the P5 conferences now have toxic teams that can immediately derail the national title dreams of their conference brethren with a simple upset victory.

For the SEC that poison was created when Clemson beat Georgia making the Dawgs a poisonous team within the SEC. Now any team that Georgia beats (South Carolina, Florida, or L.S.U.) immediately falls behind the Clemson Tigers for consideration. Mississippi State and Kentucky are also poison, just not teams that are likely to win.

The ACC has two poisonous teams now, North Carolina and Virginia Tech. Any victory by one of those over an ACC contender becomes toxic to title hopes.

In the Big 12 where there is a round robin Kansas State, T.C.U., and more unlikely Iowa State are now poison. T.C.U. because L.S.U. could be a contender and therefore a measuring stick that favors the SEC and the other two because they lost to FCS schools. Although, like Mississippi State, Iowa State is not likely to be a major factor in this regard. But still that is 30% of the Big 12 that has just become championship cyanide.

The PAC is in better shape with just Oregon State falling into the poison category. Washington State won't be a likely threat.

The Big 10 is in pretty good shape as well since Purdue and Iowa don't figure to be likely upset victors over any top programs. But, should Notre Dame beat Michigan next week there will be a viable poisonous presence there as well.

The same will be true for the loser of next week's Florida vs Miami game.

It will be interesting to watch the levels of toxic contamination as the season continues. They always talk about strength of schedule but these kinds of things do factor into the consideration come championship time. For example had T.C.U. beaten L.S.U. only to later lose to Oklahoma State and L.S.U. beats Alabama and both Alabama and Oklahoma State end up with one loss then these factors which are one game removed from direct competition will weigh upon the consideration. It would be hard to refuse the Cowboys under those circumstances.

Thanks to the SEC's early season victories over Michigan, Virginia Tech, Oregon, and West Virginia the poison has favored the SEC in the past BCS selections, but with Georgia's early loss the only way the SEC avoids the poison is if L.S.U., Florida, and South Carolina all beat the Dawgs. Should South Carolina fall to Georgia next weekend the poison spreads. Last year Clemson beat Auburn in their opener, but Auburn didn't pan out at all so the poison was avoided.

Now obviously the best way to avoid getting poisoned is to go undefeated or to have your only loss be to a #1 or #2 team (at the time) by a very slim margin in a well contested game. How do you guys see it?

The best way to avoid being poisoned is to be a name school who is ranked highly in preseason and loses early. Alabama didn't do anything to deserve being in that game in 2011 except looking good against lesser opponents. Hopefully with a 4 game playoff those biases will be reduced.

(09-01-2013 07:45 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The ACC has two poisonous teams now, North Carolina and Virginia Tech. Any victory by one of those over an ACC contender becomes toxic to title hopes.

Neither UNC nor VT are scheduled to face either of the ACC realistic contenders unless they win the Coastal.

(09-01-2013 07:45 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The PAC is in better shape with just Oregon State falling into the poison category. Washington State won't be a likely threat.

The Big 10 is in pretty good shape as well since Purdue and Iowa don't figure to be likely upset victors over any top programs. But, should Notre Dame beat Michigan next week there will be a viable poisonous presence there as well.

Not sure your theory works all the way down the line -- you're saying that it's toxic to lose to any team that has already lost to a BCS contender? -- but Cal fits into your theory b/c the Bears host Ohio State in two weeks. Cal probably won't have a winning record this season, but could upset a team with one great day where the turnovers are kept down and the other team gives up several big plays -- in other words, Cal could do to a top team what Eastern Washington did to Oregon State on Saturday.

(09-01-2013 10:10 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(09-01-2013 07:45 PM)JRsec Wrote:  After week #1 each of the P5 conferences now have toxic teams that can immediately derail the national title dreams of their conference brethren with a simple upset victory.

For the SEC that poison was created when Clemson beat Georgia making the Dawgs a poisonous team within the SEC. Now any team that Georgia beats (South Carolina, Florida, or L.S.U.) immediately falls behind the Clemson Tigers for consideration. Mississippi State and Kentucky are also poison, just not teams that are likely to win.

The ACC has two poisonous teams now, North Carolina and Virginia Tech. Any victory by one of those over an ACC contender becomes toxic to title hopes.

In the Big 12 where there is a round robin Kansas State, T.C.U., and more unlikely Iowa State are now poison. T.C.U. because L.S.U. could be a contender and therefore a measuring stick that favors the SEC and the other two because they lost to FCS schools. Although, like Mississippi State, Iowa State is not likely to be a major factor in this regard. But still that is 30% of the Big 12 that has just become championship cyanide.

The PAC is in better shape with just Oregon State falling into the poison category. Washington State won't be a likely threat.

The Big 10 is in pretty good shape as well since Purdue and Iowa don't figure to be likely upset victors over any top programs. But, should Notre Dame beat Michigan next week there will be a viable poisonous presence there as well.

The same will be true for the loser of next week's Florida vs Miami game.

It will be interesting to watch the levels of toxic contamination as the season continues. They always talk about strength of schedule but these kinds of things do factor into the consideration come championship time. For example had T.C.U. beaten L.S.U. only to later lose to Oklahoma State and L.S.U. beats Alabama and both Alabama and Oklahoma State end up with one loss then these factors which are one game removed from direct competition will weigh upon the consideration. It would be hard to refuse the Cowboys under those circumstances.

Thanks to the SEC's early season victories over Michigan, Virginia Tech, Oregon, and West Virginia the poison has favored the SEC in the past BCS selections, but with Georgia's early loss the only way the SEC avoids the poison is if L.S.U., Florida, and South Carolina all beat the Dawgs. Should South Carolina fall to Georgia next weekend the poison spreads. Last year Clemson beat Auburn in their opener, but Auburn didn't pan out at all so the poison was avoided.

Now obviously the best way to avoid getting poisoned is to go undefeated or to have your only loss be to a #1 or #2 team (at the time) by a very slim margin in a well contested game. How do you guys see it?

The best way to avoid being poisoned is to be a name school who is ranked highly in preseason and loses early. Alabama didn't do anything to deserve being in that game in 2011 except looking good against lesser opponents. Hopefully with a 4 game playoff those biases will be reduced.

Bullet, unless there are conference champions only there will always be politics because it is still just a beauty pageant in which networks lobby for national appeal teams, the Big 10 and SEC pull their leverage to get teams in, and somebody who might have deserved a shot gets left out. Doubling the playoff spots is only going to double the trouble. The only good thing that could come from further expansion is a narrowing of the number of large conferences to 4 and then moving to a champs only final four. At least it would be decided on the field even if the "best four aren't there" which is an argument that makes little sense to me since if you are not your conference champ why should you deserve a shot at a larger title? Right now it like playing king of the hill. Until somebody pulls the SEC off of that dirt clod mound they are going to get to defend the hill. In the 60 & 70's it was the Big 8 and the Big 10, with the SWC and SEC sneaking in from time to time or USC or Stanford sneaking in from the PAC. The 70's were more wide open as things started to shift. Each decade has seen the shift continue. The 2000's started seeing the rise of the SEC. None of those decades had anything but a beauty contest.

I've argued (against the Slive position) for a champions only model since I've been on the board. I think realignment will eventually take us there, but we are going to continue to play with a hybrid system where regional interest and television market involvement will play too large a part of the process, especially if we go to 8 teams. But we'll see. But last year the only team that could have given Alabama problems was Oregon. Saban has a hard time with the up tempo teams for two reasons. In his system nobody takes the quarterback. In up tempo offenses the quarterback is a viable running back as well as passer. The Bama defensive scheme works off of a shift of a linebacker to either keying on a running back or running a man and zone on the hot receiver. The tempo gases those big hulks in the trenches (hence the Auburn Cam Newton comeback). Oregon might have gassed them. Any traditional approach to the Tide last year would have lost to superior size and strength, except A&M where Manziel overloaded the Bama defensive scheme.

(09-01-2013 10:16 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  

(09-01-2013 07:45 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The ACC has two poisonous teams now, North Carolina and Virginia Tech. Any victory by one of those over an ACC contender becomes toxic to title hopes.

Neither UNC nor VT are scheduled to face either of the ACC realistic contenders unless they win the Coastal.

Then if Miami is victorious next Saturday the ACC finally gains an inside track should Clemson finish strongly, especially if Georgia beats South Carolina. But the inside track will still run through Columbia and Gainesville for Clemson and Florida State. The big advantage that the SEC has had over the ACC are these state championship games. Usually Clemson, Florida State, and sometimes Georgia Tech figure into the mix in the ACC. The SEC always has a last chance in those year end rivalry games. Of course that can be worked the other way should F.S.U., Clemson, and Ga. Tech start winning some of those games.

Such a system won't knock an SEC West champion out, but easily could derail an SEC East champion most years.

I think that realignment is going to take us to a point where all conferences open with crossovers and have another in the final two weeks of the regular season. If we push to 9 game conference schedules that gives the networks much more content to play with and engages the regional markets well both at the beginning and end of the season with another round of all region high involvement come bowls and playoffs. That's what they are looking for.

(09-01-2013 10:19 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(09-01-2013 07:45 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The PAC is in better shape with just Oregon State falling into the poison category. Washington State won't be a likely threat.

The Big 10 is in pretty good shape as well since Purdue and Iowa don't figure to be likely upset victors over any top programs. But, should Notre Dame beat Michigan next week there will be a viable poisonous presence there as well.

Not sure your theory works all the way down the line -- you're saying that it's toxic to lose to any team that has already lost to a BCS contender? -- but Cal fits into your theory b/c the Bears host Ohio State in two weeks. Cal probably won't have a winning record this season, but could upset a team with one great day where the turnovers are kept down and the other team gives up several big plays -- in other words, Cal could do to a top team what Eastern Washington did to Oregon State on Saturday.

Sort of. Lose to a team that has lost to another BCS contender and it is poison. Lose to a much lower ranked school and it always is a killer. There are a few true upsets among the power conferences every year where a Vanderbilt, or Washington State, or Northwestern spoils somebody's day. That will always be there. If Cal beats Ohio State that will certainly do it, especially after losing to Northwestern. But most years the teams that get overlooked are contenders who lost to teams that lost to other contenders. Provided of course it doesn't get circular. Like this year if Georgia beats South Carolina and South Carolina beats Clemson I think it will just knock all three of them out.

(09-01-2013 10:43 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(09-01-2013 10:19 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(09-01-2013 07:45 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The PAC is in better shape with just Oregon State falling into the poison category. Washington State won't be a likely threat.

The Big 10 is in pretty good shape as well since Purdue and Iowa don't figure to be likely upset victors over any top programs. But, should Notre Dame beat Michigan next week there will be a viable poisonous presence there as well.

Not sure your theory works all the way down the line -- you're saying that it's toxic to lose to any team that has already lost to a BCS contender? -- but Cal fits into your theory b/c the Bears host Ohio State in two weeks. Cal probably won't have a winning record this season, but could upset a team with one great day where the turnovers are kept down and the other team gives up several big plays -- in other words, Cal could do to a top team what Eastern Washington did to Oregon State on Saturday.

Sort of. Lose to a team that has lost to another BCS contender and it is poison. Lose to a much lower ranked school and it always is a killer. There are a few true upsets among the power conferences every year where a Vanderbilt, or Washington State, or Northwestern spoils somebody's day. That will always be there. If Cal beats Ohio State that will certainly do it, especially after losing to Northwestern. But most years the teams that get overlooked are contenders who lost to teams that lost to other contenders. Provided of course it doesn't get circular. Like this year if Georgia beats South Carolina and South Carolina beats Clemson I think it will just knock all three of them out.

Maybe I'm confused about your theory. I thought you were suggesting it would be poison for, say, Oregon to lose to Cal on Sept. 28 after Cal has lost to Ohio State on Sept. 14. Though it's a bad example because Cal doesn't match up well with Oregon even if the Bears play way over their heads.

(09-01-2013 10:47 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(09-01-2013 10:43 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(09-01-2013 10:19 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(09-01-2013 07:45 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The PAC is in better shape with just Oregon State falling into the poison category. Washington State won't be a likely threat.

The Big 10 is in pretty good shape as well since Purdue and Iowa don't figure to be likely upset victors over any top programs. But, should Notre Dame beat Michigan next week there will be a viable poisonous presence there as well.

Not sure your theory works all the way down the line -- you're saying that it's toxic to lose to any team that has already lost to a BCS contender? -- but Cal fits into your theory b/c the Bears host Ohio State in two weeks. Cal probably won't have a winning record this season, but could upset a team with one great day where the turnovers are kept down and the other team gives up several big plays -- in other words, Cal could do to a top team what Eastern Washington did to Oregon State on Saturday.

Sort of. Lose to a team that has lost to another BCS contender and it is poison. Lose to a much lower ranked school and it always is a killer. There are a few true upsets among the power conferences every year where a Vanderbilt, or Washington State, or Northwestern spoils somebody's day. That will always be there. If Cal beats Ohio State that will certainly do it, especially after losing to Northwestern. But most years the teams that get overlooked are contenders who lost to teams that lost to other contenders. Provided of course it doesn't get circular. Like this year if Georgia beats South Carolina and South Carolina beats Clemson I think it will just knock all three of them out.

Maybe I'm confused about your theory. I thought you were suggesting it would be poison for, say, Oregon to lose to Cal on Sept. 28 after Cal has lost to Ohio State on Sept. 14. Though it's a bad example because Cal doesn't match up well with Oregon even if the Bears play way over their heads.

No offense but Cal is probably not a contender and probably won't beat Oregon, but if your scenario happened it would certainly kill Oregon's chances, but not because Cal lost to Ohio State, but because they lost to Northwestern which means that Cal will be significantly lower than Oregon and therefore just a traditional upset.

The games I'm talking about include 3 contenders, like the T.C.U., O.S.U. and L.S.U. hypothetical illustration, or like what would happen now if Georgia beats L.S.U.. If Clemson loses a 1 point decision to F.S.U. who loses a 3 point decision to any other decent team and Georgia beats L.S.U. for the only loss that L.S.U. would have then Clemson has beaten the team that beat L.S.U. with no other common opponents once removed, advantage Clemson. But it works to L.S.U.'s advantage now if T.C.U. beats any contender from the Big 12.

(09-01-2013 10:43 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(09-01-2013 10:19 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(09-01-2013 07:45 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The PAC is in better shape with just Oregon State falling into the poison category. Washington State won't be a likely threat.

The Big 10 is in pretty good shape as well since Purdue and Iowa don't figure to be likely upset victors over any top programs. But, should Notre Dame beat Michigan next week there will be a viable poisonous presence there as well.

Not sure your theory works all the way down the line -- you're saying that it's toxic to lose to any team that has already lost to a BCS contender? -- but Cal fits into your theory b/c the Bears host Ohio State in two weeks. Cal probably won't have a winning record this season, but could upset a team with one great day where the turnovers are kept down and the other team gives up several big plays -- in other words, Cal could do to a top team what Eastern Washington did to Oregon State on Saturday.

Sort of. Lose to a team that has lost to another BCS contender and it is poison. Lose to a much lower ranked school and it always is a killer. There are a few true upsets among the power conferences every year where a Vanderbilt, or Washington State, or Northwestern spoils somebody's day. That will always be there. If Cal beats Ohio State that will certainly do it, especially after losing to Northwestern. But most years the teams that get overlooked are contenders who lost to teams that lost to other contenders. Provided of course it doesn't get circular. Like this year if Georgia beats South Carolina and South Carolina beats Clemson I think it will just knock all three of them out.

Depends on who else is out there, their record, and where they stand in the polls.

If there are two other undefeateds then yes, I think all three are in trouble.

If not I think UGA is going to be fine because to get to the national title game they will have A. a for sure high quality win over South Carolina, B. additional possible quality wins from the rest of the SEC schedule, the SECCG, and/or GT and C. their loss to Clemson was the first week so they will have been on an upward trajectory for the entire season instead of dropping off late. It's always better to lose early rather than later.

South Carolina would still be in contention, but if there is another viable comparable contender not named Clemson they could get snubbed more for the fact that while they have happened for the most part rematches are not very desirable, unless the previous game was a nip and tuck thriller.

Clemson would be out in most part because of the late loss.


I get what you are saying here, and while you have a viable point I do not think it's as big of a factor as you are trying to say it is. IMO when you lose is more important than who you lost to.

I like the poison theory.

The thing is each season takes on its own unique traits. Have a year with four undefeateds and you get hand-wringing over which you leave out.

(09-02-2013 07:45 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  I like the poison theory.

The thing is each season takes on its own unique traits. Have a year with four undefeateds and you get hand-wringing over which you leave out.

I've been perusing the schedules of some of the top teams and it is not inconceivable that we could have as many as 6 undefeated teams at the end of this season. So 4 is not that unlikely at all. Ohio State, Louisville, and Alabama have weaker than normal schedules with Louisville's being absurdly easy. The Oregon/Stanford winner could easily be undefeated. Clemson has only two strong games left (F.S.U. and S. Carolina). And the Big 12 is shaping up not to have much of a middle this year, so Texas, Oklahoma, or O.S.U. could run the table.

You lost me at "P5".

I don't give a rat's a$$ about the P5. I only care about topics that matter to all of FBS.

(09-01-2013 09:33 PM)Marge Schott Wrote:   at some of those teams being "poison". I stopped after reading the ACC and SEC, by the way.

I stopped as well! But my question to JRsec is how does losing (not really being blowed out) but Losing to the #6 & #1 ranked teams in country make your team a poison? Help me out with that. Because UGA of the SEC almost made it to the BCS championship last year with an early lost.

(09-02-2013 09:27 PM)CK42NC Wrote:  

(09-01-2013 09:33 PM)Marge Schott Wrote:   at some of those teams being "poison". I stopped after reading the ACC and SEC, by the way.

I stopped as well! But my question to JRsec is how does losing (not really being blowed out) but Losing to the #6 & #1 ranked teams in country make your team a poison? Help me out with that. Because UGA of the SEC almost made it to the BCS championship last year with an early lost.

Any team beaten by another conference's contender that then beats one of their own conference's contenders pushes their conference's team behind the team that beat them. Potentially that can create a two game swing. Let's say that Clemson and L.S.U. both wind up with one loss and L.S.U.'s loss comes at the hands of Georgia. A one loss Clemson team (with a loss in a close game with another good team) would move ahead of a one loss L.S.U. because L.S.U.'s loss would be against a team Clemson had beaten. Therefore Georgia becomes a team that can poison the SEC's chances of landing a spot in the championship game by beating other SEC contenders.

I'm not calling your team poison, I'm saying that because they lost to an SEC contender that any ACC contender they may beat will find themselves behind in consideration for a National Title Slot should they be up against South Carolina for that spot. Therefore North Carolina's victories against ACC contenders would have a poisoning affect upon the title chances of those teams should they find themselves tied in record with South Carolina. Ditto for ACC contenders who lose to Virginia Tech should they find themselves in a tie with Alabama for consideration. And ditto for SEC contenders who lose to Georgia should they find themselves in a tie with Clemson for consideration.

This weeks Florida vs Miami game is also going to act like poison for one conference or the other.

Check out the Big 10's schedules and you will see that this year Delany has made sure that most Big 10 teams only have 1 of these kinds of games. The only real way for the SEC or Big 10 to poison one another's teams this year is if Missouri/Indiana winner pulls an upset of the other conference's contenders. There is very limited exposure there. There is a lot of exposure between the ACC and SEC. The PAC doesn't have much exposure here either. The Big 12 has more, but not as much as the SEC and ACC.

Michigan will beat Notre Dame at the big house next weekend.