or even a few mergers?

Assuming that the P5 conferences are done expanding (and some of these rumblings point out that they may very well be), we could still see G5 conference expansion as conferences seek to maximize revenue and cut costs by adding teams that are a better geographic fit.

Scenarios like this would not be good for the Sunbelt or the MAC. I think that the MWC and the AAC (assuming that they don't raid each other) would benefit. I have no idea how CUSA would fare.

For example, assuming that the MWC and the AAC don't poach each other, I could see the MWC adding both BYU and UTEP.

Thoughts?

Air Force and Navy pull out of their respective conferences.

(07-27-2013 02:24 PM)Ned Low Wrote:  or even a few mergers?

Assuming that the P5 conferences are down expanding (and some of these rumblings point out that they may very well be), we could still see some G5 conference expansion as conferences seek to maximize revenue and cut costs by adding teams that are a better geographic fit.

Scenarios like this would not be good for the Sunbelt or the MAC. I think that the MWC and the AAC (assuming that they don't raid each other) would benefit. I have no idea how CUSA would fare.

For example, assuming that the MWC and the AAC don't poach each other, I could see the MWC adding both BYU and UTEP.

Thoughts?

With the prospect of paying athletes full cost of attending through a stipend I doubt anybody in the g5 adds anyone to cut the pie anymore. There would have to be a loss of a team or a significant savings to add anyone.

Maybe the sunbelt to add one

The realignment wouldn't be at the FBS level.

First, it all depends on exactly what the changes are. I'm guessing that the changes will amount to the P5 get to write the rules and everyone else can choose to take advantage or not.

The realignment would be at the sub-FBS level, where you have a number of schools who have the ability and the inclination to keep up, in conferences that as a whole don't have the ability and/or inclination. The A-10 for example--Dayton and Saint Louis are a lot more willing and able to spend money to stay at the top level than GW and St Joes. So you'd see a lot of movement as the top non-FBS programs either make a deal with the lower-FBS conferences (Dayton and Saint Louis to the MAC? Gonzaga to the MWC?) or reorganize into a couple of higher-spending conferences.

(07-27-2013 02:38 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  The realignment wouldn't be at the FBS level.

First, it all depends on exactly what the changes are. I'm guessing that the changes will amount to the P5 get to write the rules and everyone else can choose to take advantage or not.

The realignment would be at the sub-FBS level, where you have a number of schools who have the ability and the inclination to keep up, in conferences that as a whole don't have the ability and/or inclination. The A-10 for example--Dayton and Saint Louis are a lot more willing and able to spend money to stay at the top level than GW and St Joes. So you'd see a lot of movement as the top non-FBS programs either make a deal with the lower-FBS conferences (Dayton and Saint Louis to the MAC? Gonzaga to the MWC?) or reorganize into a couple of higher-spending conferences.

This is what I am thinking will occur. I could see Dayton, VCU, Witchita State and maybe another A10 school joining the AAC as Olympic-only members. I could also see the Rhode Islands and St. Bonny's of the world choosing to "stay behind".

If BYU and UTEP could wind up in the MWC, it would be cool to maybe see St. Mary's, Pepperdine, Gonzaga and maybe Loyola follow them there.

You mentioned St. Joe's; is their budget that small? What about LaSalle's? George Washington's?

Yeah I have my doubts regarding St Joe's and La Salle's willingness to compete in the new structure.

Speaking of the Big 5 (the real Big 5, in Philly): where do Penn and the rest of the Ivies end up on the dividing line? I suspect they choose to stay behind the way they've been choosing to keep a low profile for decades, but Thamel specifically mentioned them and the Patriot in his article as possibilities for the top division. It's not like the Ivies lack the ability to compete--at least half of those schools could be Stanford-like athletically, I feel like--just the willingness.

BYU won't go back to the MWC.

Air Force won't leave it, unless they can get BB, etc. into the MVC, and that won't happen.

Gonzaga can't get into the MWC. They don't play football.

It depends what the changes end up being. If the P5 are given weighted voting so they can pass what they want, then I wouldn't expect any more realignment because of the change.

If, the P5 gets their own division and they put in requirements like $35M minimum athletics budget and average conference attendance of 35,000 then I could see the compliant schools of the AAC and MWC putting together a 10 or 14 team conference that meets the requirements and that would play havoc with the memberships of the rest of the Go5.

The other question is would the new division even allow independents? If so, then a new AAC/MWC merger doesn't have to form. The compliant schools could just move up and there should be enough of them that they won't have too much trouble scheduling in the late fall. If not, BYU joins the AAC/MWC elite league but what happens to ND? They are so bound to their independence that they may drop the ACC and chose not to move up. If they move up I expect them to do everything possible to keep as much independence as possible. Maybe they make a deal with the NCAA and ACC and play every team in their division and play 7 ACC games and be eligible for the ACCCG. Of course the problem with that is what's in it for the other division. 7 schools will play ND every year and 8 schools only in the ACCCG. And whether or not they join as a full member, you can bet they'll be in the Coastal. The ACC may have to swap GT for Cuse and let BC be ND's permanent partner but the political power of the conference is in the Coastal and I expect that's were they'd end up.

If we look at this list:

http://www.basketballforum.com/atlantic-...dgets.html

It would appear that GW and St Joe's would be able to compete... and look at Richmond! With that being said, i was just playing around and came up with this:

St. Louis
Witchita State (recent success and would give the schools out west a rival. Great fan support.)
Dayton
St. Joe's (instead of LaSalle; larger budget. OR let Temple decide)
VCU
Richmond
Davidson (they can afford it and have recent success)

Those would all be solid adds.

What would happen if the rumors about Cincinnati, BYU and Boise going to the BIG 12 were true.....that would start a lot of movement.

If they did who would they add to get to 14 or 16?

I still think the ACC will add Uconn, 16 all sports, 15 football. I think eventually all the power conferences will go to 16.

Just a question?

I think after the 2014 season there will be a lot of movement again.

I stand by the fact of it simply depending on how many changes occur in the system. Questions like how the split will happen, will there be independents allowed in this new division... should be answered.

(07-27-2013 03:10 PM)lew240z Wrote:  BYU won't go back to the MWC.

Air Force won't leave it, unless they can get BB, etc. into the MVC, and that won't happen.

Gonzaga can't get into the MWC. They don't play football.

I agree with the first two.

Gonzaga makes sense for the MWC because it would give the MWC an even 12 teams in hoops. I'm not sure it makes sense for Gonzaga, though.

Gonzaga is a small private school. In the WCC, the only school that can significantly outspend Gonzaga is BYU (a very large private school). In the MWC, Gonzaga would always be at risk of being outspent by public schools that have access to sources of money that Gonzaga will never have: 20,000-plus students whom they can tax to raise money for athletics, a state government to subsidize a large percentage of the university athletic budget, and/or a FBS football team that can be used to raise money for the athletic department in general. Gonzaga is also in a low-population area and has a relatively small arena, so they don't even have the revenue potential of other relatively small Catholic schools like Creighton or Marquette.

(07-27-2013 03:59 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(07-27-2013 03:10 PM)lew240z Wrote:  BYU won't go back to the MWC.

Air Force won't leave it, unless they can get BB, etc. into the MVC, and that won't happen.

Gonzaga can't get into the MWC. They don't play football.

I agree with the first two.

Gonzaga makes sense for the MWC because it would give the MWC an even 12 teams in hoops. I'm not sure it makes sense for Gonzaga, though.

Gonzaga is a small private school. In the WCC, the only school that can significantly outspend Gonzaga is BYU (a very large private school). In the MWC, Gonzaga would always be at risk of being outspent by public schools that have access to sources of money that Gonzaga will never have: 20,000-plus students whom they can tax to raise money for athletics, a state government to subsidize a large percentage of the university athletic budget, and/or a FBS football team that can be used to raise money for the athletic department in general. Gonzaga is also in a low-population area and has a relatively small arena, so they don't even have the revenue potential of other relatively small Catholic schools like Creighton or Marquette.

Outspent or not, being in the MWC (or being a huge outlier in the Big East) would be better than staying in a WCC that decided to stay in the lower tier. Does the WCC decide to make the leap, is the question.

I think you could see some hoop schools suddenly seeking non-football membership in FBS leagues.