I was talking with a friend of mine today and he surprised me by saying the following:

"The real problem here is the system itself, not 'Johnny Football'. He should already be in the NFL living the life where petty stuff like this happens all the time."

This guy's a pretty sharp dude and his over-arching point is certainly worthy of further discussion. However, I was most struck by his talent evaluation of Manziel because I just don't see it at all. I see a nice college player - very good in fact - but I also see a guy who is on the small side and who lacks a big time arm but who plays in a system that is extremely QB friendly and has allowed lesser talented players to put up enormous numbers.

Additionally, his off field behavior seems juvenile at best and troubling at worst. Also, I was not thrilled with his performance at SEC Media Day today. He has had several days to rehearse his answers and demeanor and yet he still came off very poorly today. He seemed defiant, evasive, disingenuous and frankly, not terribly bright. You can bet your arse that the NFL people are taking notice as well.

Anyway, I bet him $100 (our standard bet) that Tim Tebow - who, predictably, has been a complete flop - will have a longer NFL career than "Johnny Football." I'm curious to hear others' thoughts and insights on this issue.

Funny my boss (huge Alabama fan) and I were having the same discussion today. We both agreed Johnny Football will be hit really hard this fall since all SEC schools paying A&M this year have already watched Manziel's tapes for months. The dude is 20 years old, he's just behaving like most college dudes his age.

Manziel is a child.

He's going to be a big target for SEC defensive linemen and linebackers this year. In the NFL he'd be absolutely killed by bigger, faster NFL defensive linemen. Not to mention eaten alive by the brighter NFL media spotlight.

Tebow will have a longer careeer, IMO. He's already in his 4th year, so he has a big head start. Also, I disagree that he has been a complete flop. He hasn't lived up to a first round pick, but he actually had decent success in Denver, and won a playoff game. His passing stats weren't very good, but he got it done...at least for one year.

How big is Manziel. He looks small on the TV. I bet his true height is 5'11" at most.

I'd lean Tebow just because he could be converted to a TE or H-back. Now the question I have about Manziel is - will his first professional snap be in the NFL or the CFL?

Intelligence: You may not like what he says, but he speaks coherently which is somewhat of a plus these days.

Maturity: The days of kids that grew up working in the family business, or on the family farm and who already know responsibility are long gone. His maturity level is about what I expect these days of 20 year olds. I've been around a great many of them and I find him typical, no worse, no better.


Size: He is definitely undersized for the NFL but that said he reminds me of Fran Tarkenton more than anyone else who comes to mind. The NFL hasn't had many scramblers that lasted very long, but Fran did, 40 years ago. I wouldn't rule him out, but it will be an up hill struggle.

Corporate Approval: Like it or not NFL teams must sell an image. It's really not the Raiders of the 60's and 70's any longer. And given recent problems with high profile talent the league is more sensitive than ever.

I think Manziel will have a personality reminiscent of Jonathon E. from Rollerball and he will continue to be the football loving, social scene guy he has always been. Not bowing to the corporate image may make his exit from the NFL a bit quicker than Tebow's whose image was too bland and inflexible for the NFL's purposes. People need to remember that Johnny Football hasn't changed at all. He's getting into the same stuff he did before he won the Heisman. It's just that the scrutiny is up because there are parties interested in him that want him to conform. If he wants to be more marketable he will. But I don't think that's what turns this kid on. I just think he wants to have fun playing and have fun when he's not playing and I don't think he is any more complicated than that.

I don't think he has an NFL arm...

I'm willing to forgive any perceived missteps at the presser considering that I believe he is simply lying b/c he hooked up with some girl the night before. Many of his decisions aren't dissimilar from most 20 y/o. He just has an incredible spotlight on him.

As for his NFL future, I think it's slim at best. As PSU5 stated, he currently lacks an NFL arm. The system Sumlin runs at A&M won't afford him the opportunity to develop it. Thus he if he dream is to play in the NFL, this off season should have been spent w/ a QB and Strength coach. The fact he hasn't will definitely raise some flags among NFL scouts.

Me.

(07-17-2013 11:06 PM)RutgersMike Wrote:  I'd lean Tebow just because he could be converted to a TE or H-back. Now the question I have about Manziel is - will his first professional snap be in the NFL or the CFL?

If the New England Scarlet Knights I mean Patriots convert him he'll probably stick around for a while.

(07-17-2013 09:53 PM)moo Wrote:  Manziel is a child.

He's going to be a big target for SEC defensive linemen and linebackers this year. In the NFL he'd be absolutely killed by bigger, faster NFL defensive linemen. Not to mention eaten alive by the brighter NFL media spotlight.

...well he was born in the 90's....

Love the "he only succeeded because he snuck up on people but THIS year we'll be prepared!"

saban had 10 weeks worth of footage on Johnny....and then guess what really tricky thing Sumlin did for the Bama game: follow the exact same playbook we used the past 10 weeks.

Trickery Trickery Trickery

I don't think Manziel sneaked up on anyone (as an aside, when did "snuck" become a real word?). I think he is a brilliant improvisational quarterback playing in the most QB friendly system in football. I can't speak to the Tarkenton comparison as Fran played before my time (though I do vaguely remember my beloved Steelers absolutely killing him in Super Bowl IX). Manziel reminds me a lot of Doug Flutie when he played at Boston College and that is intended as a compliment as Flutie was awesome at BC.

However, like Flutie, I believe that Johnny Football's physical skills will not translate well to the NFL. Unlike Flutie, the kid seems to be a bit of a wild child and that too would concern me if I were an NFL GM - especially for a kid who is not an overwhelming talent.

I'd stay away from him if I were an NFL team and if I'm being honest I'd be surprised if he went terribly high in the draft whenever he eventually does come out.

(07-18-2013 12:09 PM)Dr. Isaly von Yinzer Wrote:  However, like Flutie, I believe that Johnny Football's physical skills will not translate well to the NFL. Unlike Flutie, the kid seems to be a bit of a wild child and that too would concern me if I were an NFL GM - especially for a kid who is not an overwhelming talent.

I'd stay away from him if I were an NFL team and if I'm being honest I'd be surprised if he went terribly high in the draft whenever he eventually does come out.

I agree with your opinion... and predict that he will go lower in the draft than people think. Case keenum was a prolific passer at Houston and Kellen Moore was a proven winner at Boise St; yet both went undrafted (but eventually were signed). Their size was the biggest issue. I see a similar situation happening to Johnny Football. Consequently, I think Tebow will have a longer NFL career.

As a starting QB Tebow manged to do go 9-7 (over three seasons) in the regular season with a 1-1 playoff record. That's what Manziel has to replicate to have a better NFL career.

(07-20-2013 04:39 PM)OrangeCrush22 Wrote:  As a starting QB Tebow manged to do go 9-7 (over three seasons) in the regular season with a 1-1 playoff record. That's what Manziel has to replicate to have a better NFL career.

Unlike Tebow, Manziel lacks the size of a TE or WR. Tebow can become a good TE if he ever wants the position and I'm sure the Patriots are thinking in giving Aaron Hernandez former spot to Tebow. For Manziel it's QB or bust but time will tell if he's NFL material or the flavor the month.

(07-18-2013 12:09 PM)Dr. Isaly von Yinzer Wrote:  However, like Flutie, I believe that Johnny Football's physical skills will not translate well to the NFL. Unlike Flutie, the kid seems to be a bit of a wild child and that too would concern me if I were an NFL GM - especially for a kid who is not an overwhelming talent.

The size of Doug Flutie and the party-all-the-time mentality of Ryan Leaf -- not a good combo.

I know the OP probably meant playing career only, but I could see Tebow in a future NFL coaching job, front office or even in some sort of ownership role.

(07-18-2013 12:09 PM)Dr. Isaly von Yinzer Wrote:  I don't think Manziel sneaked up on anyone (as an aside, when did "snuck" become a real word?). I think he is a brilliant improvisational quarterback playing in the most QB friendly system in football. I can't speak to the Tarkenton comparison as Fran played before my time (though I do vaguely remember my beloved Steelers absolutely killing him in Super Bowl IX). Manziel reminds me a lot of Doug Flutie when he played at Boston College and that is intended as a compliment as Flutie was awesome at BC.

However, like Flutie, I believe that Johnny Football's physical skills will not translate well to the NFL. Unlike Flutie, the kid seems to be a bit of a wild child and that too would concern me if I were an NFL GM - especially for a kid who is not an overwhelming talent.

I'd stay away from him if I were an NFL team and if I'm being honest I'd be surprised if he went terribly high in the draft whenever he eventually does come out.

I would have to agree with the large majority of your statement and I am doing so in order to save myself some posting time. I was even going to make the Doug Flutie comparison.

What I think is different now compared to then though is the mindset up in the NFL about that particular quarterback style. I think the League is more friendly to that style and that stands in Manziel's favor.

In regards to his mental issues, I was strongly against him winning the Heisman because of how big of a spotlight it would have put on him as only a freshman. All of a sudden people aren't looking at him as a kid just finishing his freshman year of college, they are looking at him as they would any other heisman winner.

We are all products of the challenges in our lives, those challenges mold us and create who we are now and who we will be in the future. These challenges that Manziel is having to face mentally are going to very strongly shape his psychology. I do think eventually he is going to grow tired of being slammed. He will realize it is all directly due to his own actions. He will realize what it requires to live in the spotlight. Personally I think once he is able to get back on the field where he thrives, all this personal **** will get pushed behind him. I also think next off season, he will be much more capable of handling the pressure. Finally....I think all the negative stuff that has happened, it has conveniently bought him some more time in college football.

If there was desire up in the NFL ranks to bring him up way too early, I think he has been of the mindset to easily be talked into it. Now, due to his antics, I think there will be much less desire to take him after this coming season. He will have to stick around until atleast after his junior year. That will allow him two more seasons to grow further as a quarterback. The way he currently plays will get him eaten alive in the NFL.


In regards to the comparison with Tebow. Manziel is lucky to be coming forward as the bad guy. Tebow garnered bad feelings towards him from his team mates due to how much focus was always on him by the media. "Such a good guy whom isn't being given the shot". I have heard so much bullcrap spewed about Tebow by people who irrationally supported him due to his over the top public presentation of his spiritual beliefs. He has been propped up because of it and quite frankly that hasn't allowed him to gel with team mates very well.

Manziel will be coming in with a different light so to speak. I think the People standing in front of him on the field will be more likely to give that little extra effort for him because they will like him, or atleast they won't Dislike him as is the case with Tebow.