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What happens if the Big East jumps on the April 2011 ESPN offer?
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johnbragg Online
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What happens if the Big East jumps on the April 2011 ESPN offer?
Let's say that the Big East accepts ESPN's $130M per year offer, and agrees to bring in one more FBS school from a list of UCF, Houston, and Villanova, creating a 10-team football league. Let's start the new contract in 2012-13, when TCU and UCF/UH/VU join the football league. Let's say USF blocks UCF and the BE picks Houston.

Let's also say that the Big East split the revenues equally between football and basketball. That works out to $65M/18=$3.6M per year for the basketball schools, and $3.6M + $6.5M =$10.1M for the football schools.

Of course, A&M still goes to the SEC, which means the SEC needs No. 14 and the Big XII needs No. 10 and maybe No. 9, 11 and 12. Everyone is still worried about a 4-superconference future, and the Big East pretty clearly isn't going to be one of them. The ACC is concerned about SEC raids, concerned about the Big XII taking Pitt and moving into the northeast.

So the ACC takes Syracuse and Pitt, and the Big 12 takes TCU and West Virginia. Big East football is down to 6 schools. And ESPN wants to reduce the contract by say 40%, from $130M per year to $80M per year. ($2.2M for basketball, $2.2M+$4M for football schools.)

So in the fall of 2011, the Big East screws around with a scheme to bring in 4 non-football schools, Boise State, BYU, Air Force and Navy as football-onlies; shift the FB/BB split from 50-50 to 70-30 and have ESPN keep the rights fee the same, trading better content for more content.

(The basketball schools would still make a little more than they would with half of the $80M contract. Instead of $40M/18=$2.222, $39M/16 = $2.4M)

But ESPN isn't very interested, BYU and Air Force aren't interested at all. And ESPN is even less interested when you swap out BYU for San Diego State and Air Force for, um....

So by the winter of 2011, the 12-team cross-country football conference idea dies. UCF and SMU sign up as full members. The league squabbles over whether to invite two more, or just stay with 8/16, while Louisville, UConn, Rutgers and Cincinnati work full-time on getting out.

Some kind of a decision gets made, 8 FBS teams or 10, and ESPN cuts the rights fee from $130M to $80M.

Without a TV negotiation on the horizon, does the Big East choose a TV guy as commissioner?

Then Louisville and Rutgers bolt, and ESPN wants to cut the rights fee another 40%, from $80M to $48M. That's it for the basketball schools, who split. Which means that ESPN takes another bite of the apple, from $48M to about $30M.
07-17-2013 09:25 AM
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NBPirate Offline
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Post: #2
RE: What happens if the Big East jumps on the April 2011 ESPN offer?
If if's and but's were candy and nuts, we'd all have a Merry Christmas. Now please be an unbiased moderator and stop stirring the pot with hypotheticals.
07-17-2013 09:38 AM
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CommuterBob Offline
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RE: What happens if the Big East jumps on the April 2011 ESPN offer?
I get what you're saying, that the American's TV would end up about the same as what they got, and that's likely true. The 2011 deal's acceptance would not have stopped any of the moves that were made, but I disagree that BYU and/or AFA would have said no. They might have still backed out after Louisville and Rutgers left, though.
07-17-2013 09:48 AM
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johnbragg Online
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RE: What happens if the Big East jumps on the April 2011 ESPN offer?
(07-17-2013 09:48 AM)CommuterBob Wrote:  I get what you're saying, that the American's TV would end up about the same as what they got, and that's likely true. The 2011 deal's acceptance would not have stopped any of the moves that were made, but I disagree that BYU and/or AFA would have said no. They might have still backed out after Louisville and Rutgers left, though.

I didn't start with a number, I just kept taking 40% figuring that ESPN would.

BYU and Air Force didn't sign up when everyone (except me) was expecting a much higher football number than $6.5M a year, so I don't think they sign up for a certainty of $6.5M a year and no more.
07-17-2013 09:51 AM
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UConn-SMU Offline
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Post: #5
RE: What happens if the Big East jumps on the April 2011 ESPN offer?
It never had a chance. ESPN & the ACC were already conspiring with some Big East schools.
07-17-2013 10:07 AM
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johnbragg Online
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Post: #6
RE: What happens if the Big East jumps on the April 2011 ESPN offer?
(07-17-2013 10:07 AM)UConn-SMU Wrote:  It never had a chance. ESPN & the ACC were already conspiring with some Big East schools.

Probably true. But it's just that we often hear that the Big East should have taken the money. We hear about how the Catholic schools led by Georgetown sabotaged the deal. We hear about how perfidious Pitt torpedoed the deal while arranging their escape. How the 2011 deal would have been a safety net.

I thought I'd do some math on what happens if there's a deal in place with ESPN, subject to ESPN reducing the deal.
07-17-2013 10:34 AM
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Bull Offline
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Post: #7
RE: What happens if the Big East jumps on the April 2011 ESPN offer?
(07-17-2013 10:07 AM)UConn-SMU Wrote:  It never had a chance. ESPN & the ACC were already conspiring with some Big East schools.

This, this, this. Done.
07-17-2013 11:19 AM
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ohio1317 Offline
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Post: #8
RE: What happens if the Big East jumps on the April 2011 ESPN offer?
There may be scenarios where Air Force joined, but BYU I don't think was ever going to happen. Things proved too difficult for the Big 12 and then to join together, so I'd be surprised if they were willing to give up indepedence for the Big East.

Good post. For as bad a decision as turning down that offer was (which would have started the next football season, ending the old deal early), things probably wouldn't be that different. ESPN was definitely going to have escape plans in the contract if it was too heavily raided and those would have come into play. The conference might have still been a bit better off, but it probably wouldn't have been a huge difference.
07-17-2013 11:34 AM
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johnbragg Online
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Post: #9
RE: What happens if the Big East jumps on the April 2011 ESPN offer?
(07-17-2013 11:34 AM)ohio1317 Wrote:  For as bad a decision as turning down that offer was

Part of my conclusion, though, it that it wasn't a huge mistake. The conference exists for the schools, not vice versa. 14 of the 17 schools that were in the Big East (or, like TCU, on their way) when that offer was made are making more money now than the $10.1M for football, $3.6M for basketball that was the starting point before defections and deductions.

Looking at what the schools are earning now, rejecting the deal was the right decision. The only way that a TV deal would have stabilized the Big East is if it put the football schools on an equal income level with the ACC and Big 12. ACC schools were averaging $13M, Big 12 schools were averaging $15M.

If ESPN gave the Big EAst the same money they gave the ACC, with 10 football/18 basketball and a 70/30 split, the football schools come out with $13M, matching the ACC. For the Big East to match the Big 12 payout, ESPN needs to go to $180M per year.

That doesn't take into account the Big East football/basketball tensions. (Theory: by 2011, the football and basketball schools couldn't stand each other.)
07-17-2013 11:55 AM
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RobUCF Offline
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Post: #10
RE: What happens if the Big East jumps on the April 2011 ESPN offer?
That is an interesting hypothesis based on conjecture fed by rumors laced with hearsay.

That said, I don't think things would have shaped up too differently.
07-17-2013 12:58 PM
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nachoman91 Offline
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Post: #11
RE: What happens if the Big East jumps on the April 2011 ESPN offer?
The Big East's only chance was to be proactive from the beginning of when the first raid took place back when Miami and the others left. If they had expanded to 20 teams with 12 football schools, created a championship football game, and started a Big East Network .... then when the first ESPN contract negotiations started that $130M deal might have been significantly higher thus giving a reason for WVU, Pitt, Cuse and UL to stay put.
07-17-2013 01:10 PM
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Dr. Isaly von Yinzer Offline
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Post: #12
RE: What happens if the Big East jumps on the April 2011 ESPN offer?
(07-17-2013 12:58 PM)RobUCF Wrote:  That is an interesting hypothesis based on conjecture fed by rumors laced with hearsay.

That said, I don't think things would have shaped up too differently.

I agree with Rob. I think things would have ended up very similarly to how they eventually unfolded. The major difference, in my mind, would be that Villanova would likely be in the American, not the Big East. Just about everyone else would have ended up exactly where they ultimately ended up.

Also, with VU taking up a slot, that would likely have meant that Tulane or someone like that would still be in C-USA.

Villanova's football candidacy really was the straw that broke the camel's back.
(This post was last modified: 07-17-2013 01:15 PM by Dr. Isaly von Yinzer.)
07-17-2013 01:14 PM
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RE: What happens if the Big East jumps on the April 2011 ESPN offer?
(07-17-2013 01:14 PM)Dr. Isaly von Yinzer Wrote:  
(07-17-2013 12:58 PM)RobUCF Wrote:  That is an interesting hypothesis based on conjecture fed by rumors laced with hearsay.

That said, I don't think things would have shaped up too differently.

I agree with Rob. I think things would have ended up very similarly to how they eventually unfolded. The major difference, in my mind, would be that Villanova would likely be in the American, not the Big East. Just about everyone else would have ended up exactly where they ultimately ended up.

Also, with VU taking up a slot, that would likely have meant that Tulane or someone like that would still be in C-USA.

Villanova's football candidacy really was the straw that broke the camel's back.

I agree that Villanova's football candidacy created a huge rift. But I don't see any way that a BCS conference approves a member with a MAC-sized stadium.
07-17-2013 01:21 PM
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RE: What happens if the Big East jumps on the April 2011 ESPN offer?
(07-17-2013 12:58 PM)RobUCF Wrote:  That is an interesting hypothesis based on conjecture fed by rumors laced with hearsay.

That said, I don't think things would have shaped up too differently.

Agree, but I think Boise would be a member of the American, because Boise would have joined when the Old Big East would have looked like this, if ESPN contract had been signed :

Connecticut
Syracuse
Rutgers
Pittsburgh
Cincinnati
Louisville
Central Florida (add as 10th member)
South Florida
Houston (Replacement for TCU)
Boise State (Replacement for West Virginia)

I also think the American would have looked look like this after Pitt, Syracuse, Louisville and Rutgers were taken in raids:

Connecticut
Cincinnati
Central Florida
South Florida
Houston
Boise State

At this point and time SDSU, Fresno State, SMU, Memphis, Temple, and ECU would have been add. The conference would have been under a good TV contract. The American would be this right now:


Connecticut
Temple
Cincinnati
Memphis
ECU
Central Florida
South Florida
Houston
SMU
Boise State
Fresno State
SDSU

Navy, Tulane and Tulsa would never have been added and the MWC would be on football life support. 07-coffee3
(This post was last modified: 07-17-2013 01:54 PM by Wilkie01.)
07-17-2013 01:52 PM
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RE: What happens if the Big East jumps on the April 2011 ESPN offer?
Still not 100% sure Navy will end up joining The Old Big East/American. There will be two full seasons played, two full off-seasons of speculation and who knows what else before Navy ever steps on the field with the American Athletic.

I'm still not sure what the Midshipmen gain from its association with the AAC.

Navy has direct tie-ins to bowl games if eligible, doesn't seem to have much of an issue scheduling schools to play and make more money yearly from the annual Army/Navy game than AAC members will receive for an entire season from their ESPN contract. More money, direct bowl tie ins and probably no shortage of opponents. So what gives?

Navy will always play Air Force, Army, Notre Dame and given the national appeal of playing one of the academies, the Sun Belt, AAC, MAC, MWC and CUSA schools would schedule Navy regularly - it may be the only game some of those schools would get on national TV.
(This post was last modified: 07-17-2013 02:21 PM by Blackhawk-eye.)
07-17-2013 02:19 PM
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RE: What happens if the Big East jumps on the April 2011 ESPN offer?
(07-17-2013 02:19 PM)Blackhawk-eye Wrote:  Navy has direct tie-ins to bowl games if eligible, doesn't seem to have much of an issue scheduling schools to play and make more money yearly from the annual Army/Navy game than AAC members will receive for an entire season from their ESPN contract. More money, direct bowl tie ins and probably no shortage of opponents. So what gives?

I was betting the same way, but apparently NAvy's AD doesn't see independence as viable long-term. Someone asked him about joining the league, and he scoffed, asking what other options were there, talking down the MAC and CUSA, not mentioning independence.

http://www.capitalgazette.com/sports/nav...54798.html
07-17-2013 02:30 PM
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vandiver49 Offline
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RE: What happens if the Big East jumps on the April 2011 ESPN offer?
(07-17-2013 02:30 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(07-17-2013 02:19 PM)Blackhawk-eye Wrote:  Navy has direct tie-ins to bowl games if eligible, doesn't seem to have much of an issue scheduling schools to play and make more money yearly from the annual Army/Navy game than AAC members will receive for an entire season from their ESPN contract. More money, direct bowl tie ins and probably no shortage of opponents. So what gives?

I was betting the same way, but apparently NAvy's AD doesn't see independence as viable long-term. Someone asked him about joining the league, and he scoffed, asking what other options were there, talking down the MAC and CUSA, not mentioning independence.

http://www.capitalgazette.com/sports/nav...54798.html

If the MAC would allow Army and Navy in as Football only and not have to play cross divisional opponents, I'd have no problem with the league.
07-17-2013 04:10 PM
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RE: What happens if the Big East jumps on the April 2011 ESPN offer?
(07-17-2013 04:10 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  
(07-17-2013 02:30 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(07-17-2013 02:19 PM)Blackhawk-eye Wrote:  Navy has direct tie-ins to bowl games if eligible, doesn't seem to have much of an issue scheduling schools to play and make more money yearly from the annual Army/Navy game than AAC members will receive for an entire season from their ESPN contract. More money, direct bowl tie ins and probably no shortage of opponents. So what gives?

I was betting the same way, but apparently NAvy's AD doesn't see independence as viable long-term. Someone asked him about joining the league, and he scoffed, asking what other options were there, talking down the MAC and CUSA, not mentioning independence.

http://www.capitalgazette.com/sports/nav...54798.html

If the MAC would allow Army and Navy in as Football only and not have to play cross divisional opponents, I'd have no problem with the league.

And I don't see that happening. At most the MAC needs one more school. And I'd rather they didn't add any more football-only schools anyway.
07-17-2013 04:52 PM
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