What happens if the Big East jumps on the April 2011 ESPN offer?
Let's say that the Big East accepts ESPN's $130M per year offer, and agrees to bring in one more FBS school from a list of UCF, Houston, and Villanova, creating a 10-team football league. Let's start the new contract in 2012-13, when TCU and UCF/UH/VU join the football league. Let's say USF blocks UCF and the BE picks Houston.
Let's also say that the Big East split the revenues equally between football and basketball. That works out to $65M/18=$3.6M per year for the basketball schools, and $3.6M + $6.5M =$10.1M for the football schools.
Of course, A&M still goes to the SEC, which means the SEC needs No. 14 and the Big XII needs No. 10 and maybe No. 9, 11 and 12. Everyone is still worried about a 4-superconference future, and the Big East pretty clearly isn't going to be one of them. The ACC is concerned about SEC raids, concerned about the Big XII taking Pitt and moving into the northeast.
So the ACC takes Syracuse and Pitt, and the Big 12 takes TCU and West Virginia. Big East football is down to 6 schools. And ESPN wants to reduce the contract by say 40%, from $130M per year to $80M per year. ($2.2M for basketball, $2.2M+$4M for football schools.)
So in the fall of 2011, the Big East screws around with a scheme to bring in 4 non-football schools, Boise State, BYU, Air Force and Navy as football-onlies; shift the FB/BB split from 50-50 to 70-30 and have ESPN keep the rights fee the same, trading better content for more content.
(The basketball schools would still make a little more than they would with half of the $80M contract. Instead of $40M/18=$2.222, $39M/16 = $2.4M)
But ESPN isn't very interested, BYU and Air Force aren't interested at all. And ESPN is even less interested when you swap out BYU for San Diego State and Air Force for, um....
So by the winter of 2011, the 12-team cross-country football conference idea dies. UCF and SMU sign up as full members. The league squabbles over whether to invite two more, or just stay with 8/16, while Louisville, UConn, Rutgers and Cincinnati work full-time on getting out.
Some kind of a decision gets made, 8 FBS teams or 10, and ESPN cuts the rights fee from $130M to $80M.
Without a TV negotiation on the horizon, does the Big East choose a TV guy as commissioner?
Then Louisville and Rutgers bolt, and ESPN wants to cut the rights fee another 40%, from $80M to $48M. That's it for the basketball schools, who split. Which means that ESPN takes another bite of the apple, from $48M to about $30M.
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