I guess a lot of this depends on how the season plays out, but by all accounts most people will agree Memphis has Top-10 talent and perhaps one of the most (didn't say THE most) talent teams in Tigers history.

That being said, I would be terribly disappointed if Memphis only makes it to the Sweet 16, IF the premise is that Memphis is a 3 seed or better going into the NCAA tourney. Memphis would be the overwhelming favorite to beat the 14 seed and then the 6/11 seed. Then they would match up vs. a 2 seed, which would been about as even of a match as you could ask for in that game.

Now if the season sputters and Memphis loses eight or so games, then going into the tourney as a 4/5 seed changes things, but then the question would have to be why the team didn't take care of business in the regular season.

As someone said above, chemistry, buy in and team play will be the real barriers to achieving greatness this year. Certainly not talent.

In my humble opinion and as I do every year:

40-0

(07-11-2013 11:24 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  I guess a lot of this depends on how the season plays out, but by all accounts most people will agree Memphis has Top-10 talent and perhaps one of the most (didn't say THE most) talent teams in Tigers history.

That being said, I would be terribly disappointed if Memphis only makes it to the Sweet 16, IF the premise is that Memphis is a 3 seed or better going into the NCAA tourney. Memphis would be the overwhelming favorite to beat the 14 seed and then the 6/11 seed. Then they would match up vs. a 2 seed, which would been about as even of a match as you could ask for in that game.

Now if the season sputters and Memphis loses eight or so games, then going into the tourney as a 4/5 seed changes things, but then the question would have to be why the team didn't take care of business in the regular season.

As someone said above, chemistry, buy in and team play will be the real barriers to achieving greatness this year. Certainly not talent.

8 losses going into the tournament isn't exactly sputtering. Michigan State and Marquette both had 8 losses and got a 3 seed. I can't imagine too many teams having a more difficult schedule than ours.

The Big East and 10 were much tougher leagues than AAC this year. Memphis will have tough name games vs. UF, OSU (maybe twice), Gonzaga, UL(2) UConn (2) and Cinci (2).
That is 10 games. If Memphis loses 6 or 7 of those games and drops a jabroni game or 2, that would be sputtering, esp if the team is regarded as an elite talent squad.

Coach Cal took us to the NIT semi-finals in year 5.

Coach Finch took us to the 2nd round of the NIT in year 5.

Coach Kirk took us to the Sweet Sixteen in year 5.

Coach Bartow took the Illinois job in year 5.

Well the bar is pretty low then.

I'm not going to do the research, but I doubt any coach we've had put a team on the floor in year 5 that featured most of the players from two different top 5 recruiting classes.

(07-11-2013 09:47 AM)HoopDreams Wrote:  sweet 16 would be a failure to meet expectations.

this team has top 4-5 talent nationally.

#next

People have said this for the last 3 years. And then if we get off to a slow start the expectations are suddenly too high and unrealistic. Ima wait until they show they are good on the court before going all crazy. Not gonna fall for the hype again this year

(07-11-2013 02:28 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  The Big East and 10 were much tougher leagues than AAC this year. Memphis will have tough name games vs. UF, OSU (maybe twice), Gonzaga, UL(2) UConn (2) and Cinci (2).
That is 10 games. If Memphis loses 6 or 7 of those games and drops a jabroni game or 2, that would be sputtering, esp if the team is regarded as an elite talent squad.

Marquette was only 9-7 against the top 50 of the RPI, and 4-1 against 51-100, and 5 games against teams 200 or worse. They also lost a game to #165 Green Bay. They ended up 3-3 against teams that ended the season ranked. Florida got a 3 seed with 7 losses against a vastly inferior $EC.

Michigan State was only 9-9 against the top 50 of the RPI, but they played the 2nd toughest schedule and had much better wins. We will for sure have around the same type of SOS and the same number of opportunities against the top 50/top 100 as Marquette. IF we lose 6 of these games, we will still win at least 8. The strength of the top of the conference will probably pull some of the middle of the conference up into the top 50, and at least one other Old Spice opponent will likely be top 50.

In any event; 8 losses will get us a 3 or 4 seed, and will be the furthest thing imagineable from sputtering.

(07-11-2013 02:49 PM)Dynamos Wrote:  

(07-11-2013 09:47 AM)HoopDreams Wrote:  sweet 16 would be a failure to meet expectations.

this team has top 4-5 talent nationally.

#next

People have said this for the last 3 years. And then if we get off to a slow start the expectations are suddenly too high and unrealistic. Ima wait until they show they are good on the court before going all crazy. Not gonna fall for the hype again this year

The team is a mash-up of two top five recruiting classes and some high level transfers. I don't see how anyone will not have them highly-ranked. They may have been overranked the past few years, but the talent is there this year.

(07-11-2013 03:00 PM)HoopDreams Wrote:  

(07-11-2013 02:49 PM)Dynamos Wrote:  

(07-11-2013 09:47 AM)HoopDreams Wrote:  sweet 16 would be a failure to meet expectations.

this team has top 4-5 talent nationally.

#next

People have said this for the last 3 years. And then if we get off to a slow start the expectations are suddenly too high and unrealistic. Ima wait until they show they are good on the court before going all crazy. Not gonna fall for the hype again this year

The team is a mash-up of two top five recruiting classes and some high level transfers. I don't see how anyone will not have them highly-ranked. They may have been overranked the past few years, but the talent is there this year.

We have been good and talented on paper the last 3 years. Ima wait and see this year

(07-11-2013 07:50 AM)eastcoastDave Wrote:  

(07-11-2013 06:39 AM)holyterror Wrote:  I think Shaq might be the key here. I went back and watched a couple of last year's games, and when Shaq WANTS to, he's capable of being the stud. He either hit the freshman wall or lost interest last year. I'm hopeful that all of this freshman beef will light a fire under him and he'll play with more assertiveness. The threat of riding the bench might be just the motivation Shaq needs.

If he improves in the freshman-to-sophomore way, we can be amazing.
If he sulks and fades back, we're awfully young inside.

Agree. Shaq can be wonderful or awful. I'm hoping for the wonderful in the upcoming season. He'll have some folks to push him for playing time (although that didn't seem to matter to him in the last part of last season). I'm hoping for a dominate season from him.

The one folk that will square him away is his mama with her shoe off.

(07-11-2013 03:00 PM)HoopDreams Wrote:  The team is a mash-up of two top five recruiting classes and some high level transfers. I don't see how anyone will not have them highly-ranked. They may have been overranked the past few years, but the talent is there this year.

Most of that '10 class is gone (Kendrick, Barton, Black, Barton). Nobody that is still around from the '11 or '12 classes has shown elite talent.

Now we're counting on Freshmen to take over on the wing (King/Iverson) and up front spots (Nichols/Woodson).

Rely on Freshmen if you want to take over the 3-5 spots - but I've got to see to believe before calling them elite, final four talent.

Match them up with Finch/Robinson/Kenon or Lee/Bedford or Rose/CDR - they're just paper Tigers right now.

barring unforeseen injury to a major player...this team should be in the Elite 8. Anything less would be a disappointment. I think THAT is the bar that Josh needs to hold this team to to keep his recruiting strong going into the future. Recruits want to see results.
If we can start becoming regular participants in the later rounds of the NCAA tournament...then Coach Pastner will have a very real shot at going head to head with Calipari for elite level recruits.

Seriously? I have no idea. "Good" is both relative and inferior to "better" and "best". I hope we soar with and beyond the "best".

(07-11-2013 03:34 PM)Tiger USA Wrote:  

(07-11-2013 03:00 PM)HoopDreams Wrote:  The team is a mash-up of two top five recruiting classes and some high level transfers. I don't see how anyone will not have them highly-ranked. They may have been overranked the past few years, but the talent is there this year.

Most of that '10 class is gone (Kendrick, Barton, Black, Barton). Nobody that is still around from the '11 or '12 classes has shown elite talent.

Now we're counting on Freshmen to take over on the wing (King/Iverson) and up front spots (Nichols/Woodson).

Rely on Freshmen if you want to take over the 3-5 spots - but I've got to see to believe before calling them elite, final four talent.

Match them up with Finch/Robinson/Kenon or Lee/Bedford or Rose/CDR - they're just paper Tigers right now.

In the era of one and done, they could realistically start four seniors and one sophomore and have a roster with multiple McDonald's All-Americans, mostly top 100 ranked players, and a senior who was Big 12 sixth man of the year.

I'm not relying on freshman to take over anything or do anything other than contribute - I'd start Shaq, Pellom, Chris, Geron, and JJ in the beginning.

40-0

(07-11-2013 02:37 PM)3601 Wrote:  Coach Cal took us to the NIT semi-finals in year 5.

Coach Finch took us to the 2nd round of the NIT in year 5.

Coach Kirk took us to the Sweet Sixteen in year 5.

Coach Bartow took the Illinois job in year 5.

What about Dean Ehlers doe?

(07-11-2013 04:59 PM)BIGGESTTIGERJLB Wrote:  40-0

I always say that. Realistically though, the Tigers should be very good. As far as predicting the future, I have no clue.
There are too many things that need to go right and too many things that could go wrong. I can't wait to see how it works out, though.
Pray for good luck and hope for all good bounces, but if that doesn't happen, I'm still a fan.

(07-11-2013 04:36 PM)EarthBoundMisfit Wrote:  barring unforeseen injury to a major player...this team should be in the Elite 8. Anything less would be a disappointment. I think THAT is the bar that Josh needs to hold this team to to keep his recruiting strong going into the future. Recruits want to see results.
If we can start becoming regular participants in the later rounds of the NCAA tournament...then Coach Pastner will have a very real shot at going head to head with Calipari for elite level recruits.

When do you guys that spout this stuff every year get it from? Let's get to the AAC title first then worry about the dance.