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A Realistic Scenario of How the Big 12 Could Die By Dissolution.
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USAFMEDIC Offline
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Post: #21
RE: A Realistic Scenario of How the Big 12 Could Die By Dissolution.
(06-15-2013 01:29 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  
(06-15-2013 01:28 PM)Underdog Wrote:  
(06-15-2013 01:24 PM)USAFMEDIC Wrote:  This was my reasoning earlier in the thread. OU/KU to the B1G, WVU to the SEC and UT to ACC/ND. Works pretty well in theory... Massive win for the B1G.

The PAC 12 would have more to offer TX because of its network than the ACC.

Texas has it's own Network. The ACC doesn't and may very likely not be getting one. Yes their rights belong to ESPN but guess what, so does the LHN. I'm sure an agreement could be made in principle.
The ACC would cut whatever deal it could to get UT. If they have UT and ND together thats a checkmate for being a major player. ND has it's own network and worked it out. UT could just do the same.
06-15-2013 01:33 PM
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Post: #22
RE: A Realistic Scenario of How the Big 12 Could Die By Dissolution.
(06-15-2013 01:29 PM)He1nousOne Wrote:  Texas has it's own Network. The ACC doesn't and may very likely not be getting one. Yes their rights belong to ESPN but guess what, so does the LHN. I'm sure an agreement could be made in principle.

(06-15-2013 01:33 PM)USAFMEDIC Wrote:  The ACC would cut whatever deal it could to get UT. If they have UT and ND together thats a checkmate for being a major player. ND has it's own network and worked it out. UT could just do the same.

Both are good points....
(This post was last modified: 06-15-2013 01:38 PM by Underdog.)
06-15-2013 01:33 PM
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bitcruncher Offline
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Post: #23
RE: A Realistic Scenario of How the Big 12 Could Die By Dissolution.
What everyone is ignoring is the fact that all current B12 members like the conference the way it is. The B12 has 10 schools of like mind associated together, round robin play in every sport every year, and a great TV package. Nobody is going anywhere for the foreseeable future...
06-15-2013 01:46 PM
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Post: #24
RE: A Realistic Scenario of How the Big 12 Could Die By Dissolution.
The OP has several baseless points, but I do not want to spend my time countering all of them.

However, there is something everyone seems to not be aware of.... and that is ALL of the schools in the Big12 are really happy with thier current status, and that includes OU and Texas.....especially Texas...they have the sweetest deal in all of college football.
(This post was last modified: 06-15-2013 01:55 PM by SMUmustangs.)
06-15-2013 01:48 PM
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He1nousOne Offline
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Post: #25
RE: A Realistic Scenario of How the Big 12 Could Die By Dissolution.
And if Texas signs on like Notre Dame did while bringing along Baylor to the party as a full member of the ACC then the ACC can further make ESPN happy by picking up UConn to go to 16.
06-15-2013 01:48 PM
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He1nousOne Offline
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Post: #26
RE: A Realistic Scenario of How the Big 12 Could Die By Dissolution.
I dont think any of us are saying this is absolutely going to happen. We are just talking over a possibility guys.
06-15-2013 01:49 PM
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Post: #27
RE: A Realistic Scenario of How the Big 12 Could Die By Dissolution.
(06-15-2013 01:46 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  What everyone is ignoring is the fact that all current B12 members like the conference the way it is. The B12 has 10 schools of like mind associated together, round robin play in every sport every year, and a great TV package. Nobody is going anywhere for the foreseeable future...

We're posting from the perspective of what could happen after the plug is pulled on the life support system—GOR. I also like the fact that all B12 schools play each other, but the problem is with the LHN that almost killed the conference once before.
06-15-2013 01:56 PM
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chargeradio Offline
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Post: #28
RE: A Realistic Scenario of How the Big 12 Could Die By Dissolution.
Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State to the Pac-12
Kansas and Kansas State to the Big 10 (Kansas legislature short-circuits KU's attempt to move anywhere without K-State)
TCU and West Virginia to the SEC (could see Iowa State instead of TCU to avoid duplication with A&M, but the DFW market may be too much to pass up)
Baylor and Iowa State to the ACC

ACC North - Boston College, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech
ACC South - Florida State, Miami (FL), Georgia Tech, Clemson
ACC West - Louisville, Iowa State, Baylor, Pittsburgh
ACC East - North Carolina, NCSU, Duke, Wake Forest

Notre Dame jumps to six ACC games per year, with one of the six guaranteed to be Pittsburgh, Boston College, or Miami.

B1G West - Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, Kansas State
B1G North - Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State
B1G East - Maryland, Rutgers, Penn State, Ohio State
B1G Central - Indiana, Illinois, Purdue, Northwestern

SEC North - Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
SEC West - Arkansas, LSU, Texas A&M, TCU
SEC East - West Virginia, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina
SEC South - Mississippi, Mississippi State, Alabama, Auburn

PAC North - Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State
PAC South - Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
PAC Mountain - Colorado, Utah, Arizona, Arizona State
PAC Coastal - UCLA, USC, California, Stanford
06-15-2013 02:15 PM
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USAFMEDIC Offline
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Post: #29
RE: A Realistic Scenario of How the Big 12 Could Die By Dissolution.
(06-15-2013 01:46 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  What everyone is ignoring is the fact that all current B12 members like the conference the way it is. The B12 has 10 schools of like mind associated together, round robin play in every sport every year, and a great TV package. Nobody is going anywhere for the foreseeable future...

Sometimes if they really are, or if that's just the company line. I would have to believe that WVU would want a couple east schools to go to 12. Honestly, I just don't believe all these schools.05-stirthepot
06-15-2013 02:17 PM
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bitcruncher Offline
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Post: #30
RE: A Realistic Scenario of How the Big 12 Could Die By Dissolution.
(06-15-2013 01:56 PM)Underdog Wrote:  
(06-15-2013 01:46 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  What everyone is ignoring is the fact that all current B12 members like the conference the way it is. The B12 has 10 schools of like mind associated together, round robin play in every sport every year, and a great TV package. Nobody is going anywhere for the foreseeable future...
We're posting from the perspective of what could happen after the plug is pulled on the life support system—GOR. I also like the fact that all B12 schools play each other, but the problem is with the LHN that almost killed the conference once before.
The LHN didn't almost kill the conference. Although A&M fans like to say that it did, even though they could have benefited from the LHN as well. But they chose not to participate, fled to the SEC, and have tried to lay all the blame on Texas since. But A&M had been eyeing the SEC since the SWC broke up. Arkansas, a former rival, was finding success in the SEC. A&M felt overshadowed by Texas, and the only way they felt they could escape that shadow was in another conference, especially if that conference was the most powerful conference in college football. They weren't confident enough in their ability to escape that shadow by themselves. They needed some big help for that...

Nebraksa left the conference because their big rivalry with Oklahoma was destroyed in the divisional setup created when the Big 8 expanded with 4 former SWC members to form the Big XII (OU and OSU were put in the south with the 4 Texas schools). Nebraska also felt the conference had become too Texas-centric, since OU's main interests now coincided with Texas. The Huskers drop off in football coincided with the formation of the B12 as well. After 3 appearances in the first 4 B12 Championship games (Huskers went 2-1), they didn't win another conference championship game and only made 3 appearances in the next 11 years. So they felt their fortunes would be better served in the B1G...

Colorado left because they had become an afterthought in the B12, and most of their alums went west to find work. So they had more affinity with the Pacific coast schools than they did with B12 schools...

Mizzou thought the B12 was in danger of collapse. So they were looking for a lifeline. They thought the B1G was going to be their savior, but Nebraska took that slot from them. Then the SEC swept in at the last minute, selecting Mizzou over WVU for #14, after they decided to expand with A&M...

The Texoma 4 were flirting with the Pac, and might have joined. But TV bailed out the conference, and ESPiN gave Texas a $300 million boost in the form on the LHN. That ruled Texas out of the Pac12 picture. OU inquired about Pac membership, but were turned down. IMO that was a huge mistake by the Pac12, since it would most likely have gotten them Texas as well in the long run. But it's too late now. The B12 added TCU and WVU and signed the GoR, giving the TV networks a guarantee of long term stability for the conference...
06-15-2013 02:51 PM
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Post: #31
RE: A Realistic Scenario of How the Big 12 Could Die By Dissolution.
(06-15-2013 01:46 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  What everyone is ignoring is the fact that all current B12 members like the conference the way it is. The B12 has 10 schools of like mind associated together, round robin play in every sport every year, and a great TV package. Nobody is going anywhere for the foreseeable future...

If they are going to pay the B12 25 million per school for athletics its very difficult imagining a counter offer by another P5 to destabilize it.

Keep in mind that realignment was kicked off by the SEC announcing a huge new TV deal with ESPN. The PAC in particular felt they had to make an expansion to get into the same dollar league as the SEC.
06-15-2013 02:56 PM
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Kittonhead Offline
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Post: #32
RE: A Realistic Scenario of How the Big 12 Could Die By Dissolution.
(06-15-2013 02:17 PM)USAFMEDIC Wrote:  
(06-15-2013 01:46 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  What everyone is ignoring is the fact that all current B12 members like the conference the way it is. The B12 has 10 schools of like mind associated together, round robin play in every sport every year, and a great TV package. Nobody is going anywhere for the foreseeable future...

Sometimes if they really are, or if that's just the company line. I would have to believe that WVU would want a couple east schools to go to 12. Honestly, I just don't believe all these schools.05-stirthepot

The East schools aren't probably going to come unless the B12 loses somebody.
06-15-2013 02:58 PM
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Post: #33
RE: A Realistic Scenario of How the Big 12 Could Die By Dissolution.
(06-15-2013 12:58 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  He lost me at the B1G inviting 3 schools. Why would they go to 17 teams, and not 16 or 18? Do they really want a prime number for their membership role, with all the scheduling problems that would create?


This
06-15-2013 03:07 PM
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Post: #34
RE: A Realistic Scenario of How the Big 12 Could Die By Dissolution.
(06-15-2013 12:47 PM)Tulsafanzz Wrote:  The PAC 12 really didn't want OSU & Texas Tech even when it included getting Texas & OU. No way they take them with Iowa State & Kansas State.

The Big XII schools are happy at 10 & they aren't looking to leave.

I think you may be underestimating the financial windfall such an alliance would have for the pac in my senario.alliances are way more profitable if you have a network.
06-15-2013 03:26 PM
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Post: #35
RE: A Realistic Scenario of How the Big 12 Could Die By Dissolution.
(06-15-2013 02:51 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  
(06-15-2013 01:56 PM)Underdog Wrote:  
(06-15-2013 01:46 PM)bitcruncher Wrote:  What everyone is ignoring is the fact that all current B12 members like the conference the way it is. The B12 has 10 schools of like mind associated together, round robin play in every sport every year, and a great TV package. Nobody is going anywhere for the foreseeable future...
We're posting from the perspective of what could happen after the plug is pulled on the life support system—GOR. I also like the fact that all B12 schools play each other, but the problem is with the LHN that almost killed the conference once before.
The LHN didn't almost kill the conference. Although A&M fans like to say that it did, even though they could have benefited from the LHN as well. But they chose not to participate, fled to the SEC, and have tried to lay all the blame on Texas since. But A&M had been eyeing the SEC since the SWC broke up. Arkansas, a former rival, was finding success in the SEC. A&M felt overshadowed by Texas, and the only way they felt they could escape that shadow was in another conference, especially if that conference was the most powerful conference in college football. They weren't confident enough in their ability to escape that shadow by themselves. They needed some big help for that...

Nebraksa left the conference because their big rivalry with Oklahoma was destroyed in the divisional setup created when the Big 8 expanded with 4 former SWC members to form the Big XII (OU and OSU were put in the south with the 4 Texas schools). Nebraska also felt the conference had become too Texas-centric, since OU's main interests now coincided with Texas. The Huskers drop off in football coincided with the formation of the B12 as well. After 3 appearances in the first 4 B12 Championship games (Huskers went 2-1), they didn't win another conference championship game and only made 3 appearances in the next 11 years. So they felt their fortunes would be better served in the B1G...

Colorado left because they had become an afterthought in the B12, and most of their alums went west to find work. So they had more affinity with the Pacific coast schools than they did with B12 schools...

Mizzou thought the B12 was in danger of collapse. So they were looking for a lifeline. They thought the B1G was going to be their savior, but Nebraska took that slot from them. Then the SEC swept in at the last minute, selecting Mizzou over WVU for #14, after they decided to expand with A&M...

The Texoma 4 were flirting with the Pac, and might have joined. But TV bailed out the conference, and ESPiN gave Texas a $300 million boost in the form on the LHN. That ruled Texas out of the Pac12 picture. OU inquired about Pac membership, but were turned down. IMO that was a huge mistake by the Pac12, since it would most likely have gotten them Texas as well in the long run. But it's too late now. The B12 added TCU and WVU and signed the GoR, giving the TV networks a guarantee of long term stability for the conference...

Very true.... I never understood why the PAC was originally interested in OU and OSU (along with TX and TT), but turned both schools down later. Texas could have still probably salvaged the B12, but I have to agree with you that TX would have joined the PAC 12 if OU and OSU were accepted.
06-15-2013 03:27 PM
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Frog in the Kitchen Sink Offline
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Post: #36
RE: A Realistic Scenario of How the Big 12 Could Die By Dissolution.
The GOR is the result of stability (due to a positive revenue structure), not the cause. If the Big 12 dissolves it won't be because the GOR expires, it will be because the revenue model is no longer there relative to other opportunities. If the revenue is there, the GOR will simply be extended.
06-15-2013 03:39 PM
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Post: #37
RE: A Realistic Scenario of How the Big 12 Could Die By Dissolution.
(06-15-2013 03:39 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  The GOR is the result of stability (due to a positive revenue structure), not the cause. If the Big 12 dissolves it won't be because the GOR expires, it will be because the revenue model is no longer there relative to other opportunities. If the revenue is there, the GOR will simply be extended.

I'd think TCU would hope that is true, else you're out in the cold...AGAIN.
06-15-2013 03:43 PM
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Post: #38
RE: A Realistic Scenario of How the Big 12 Could Die By Dissolution.
Okay let's play with the scenario. But with these facts. Texas is obligated to ESPN. That means if they move it will be either to the ACC or SEC. Oklahoma is obligated to Comcast. Their most comfortable destination would be the PAC contractually speaking. The only thing they bring to the Big 10 is the renewal of the Nebraska rivalry. And, they are not currently AAU. There are three AAU schools in the current Big 12. Texas, Iowa State, and Kansas. Since the Big 10 likely will not get Texas, and doesn't want to double down in its Iowa footprint, that leaves a very likely Kansas.
The rest of the schools are in play for everyone. How do you parse out 8?

Big 10: Kansas- They are AAU, National Brand in Hoops, and a natural fit.
Iowa State / Connecticut: AAU versus more Eastern exposure?

Note: Delany agrees to take Iowa State to dissolve the Big 12 and with the understanding that he will receive consideration should more expansion come later.

PAC: Texas Tech- State school, natural bridge to the rest of the West.
T.C.U.- Religious affiliation does not affect diversity, DFW
Oklahoma- National brand
Kansas State- Part of the Oklahoma deal.
*Baylor- Could go instead of T.C.U.

SEC: Texas- The SEC is more profitable than the ACC. Texas is the biggest fish left in the pond. If Slive ever wants a shot at North Carolina and Virginia/Virginia Tech then Texas must not go to the ACC. Which is another reason Delany might take Iowa State.

Oklahoma State- Continuity and a new state.

ACC: West Virginia- a bridge around Maryland
Connecticut- basketball power and final piece of the puzzle.


OR

Larry Scott thinks big and offers:

Baylor, Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State to go to 20 and dissolve the GOR all by himself.

Delany and Slive try to make the money too good for the ACC to refuse movement. Both have plans to take 6 each and dissolve the ACC.

The movement of the P5 to the P3 will net each of the 60 teams involved an extra 2 million a year by the elimination of the other playoff spots and bowl alliances. That is an incentive in addition to the networks.

The SEC would go for Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, N.C. State, Clemson and Florida State.

The Big 10 would go for Virginia, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, Syracuse, and Notre Dame but would settle for Boston College for the market.
06-15-2013 05:18 PM
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Post: #39
RE: A Realistic Scenario of How the Big 12 Could Die By Dissolution.
(06-15-2013 12:47 PM)Tulsafanzz Wrote:  The PAC 12 really didn't want OSU & Texas Tech even when it included getting Texas & OU. No way they take them with Iowa State & Kansas State.
This, with a bullet.
06-15-2013 05:27 PM
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Post: #40
RE: A Realistic Scenario of How the Big 12 Could Die By Dissolution.
(06-15-2013 12:46 PM)ecuacc4ever Wrote:  Man, I was with you right until you mentioned the ACC inviting West Virginia.

I actually think that West Virginia will eventually be in the ACC.
06-15-2013 05:55 PM
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